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Steven E. KooninUnder Secretary for ScienceDepartment of EnergyJanuary 2010
Sustainability Solutions:
Fixing the Unbalanced Agenda
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Theses
Global development and population growthwill place unprecedented stress on resources(Sustainability)
These same factors will have a profoundinfluence on US domestic and globalcircumstances (sustainability)
214 January 2010
Navigating these changes will be themajor task of the next decades
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Outline
Global drivers
Energy Sustainability
Food and Water Sustainability
sustainability
314 January 2010
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Global drivers
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Energy consumption has increasedwith development
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
PrimaryEnergypercapita
(GJ)
GDP per capita (PPP, $2000)
514 January 2010
Source: UN and DOE EIA, Russia data 1992-2004 only
US
Australia
Russia
Brazil
China
India
S. Korea
Mexico
Ireland
Greece
France
UKJapan
Malaysia
Energy demand and GDP per capita (1980-2004)
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Calories increase with GDP
614 January 2010
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As does meat consumption
714 January 2010
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Calories increase with time
814 January 2010Source: FAO report, Diet, Nutrition and the Prevention of Chronic Diseases , 2003
Calorie
s
Year
World
Developing
countries
Industrializedcountries
Transitioncountries
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Population growth a second driver
World population to 2050 - UN data
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
millions
Africa OceaniaAsia EuropeLatin America and Caribbean Northern America
914 January 2010
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US= 4% people and ~20% consumption
1014 January 2010Source: CIA World Factbook 2008
Percentage of US to World
Impacts bothglobal resources
and US position
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Global sustainability math
US per capita consumption
= 0.2 Current / 0.3 B people
= 0.7 CPB (Current per Billion)
If todays 7B consumed at the US per capitarate, 0.7 CBP * 7 B ~ 5x current resource use
2050s 9 billion would consume ~ 6x Current
Using the EU as a benchmark reduces thesenumbers by about 30%
1114 January 2010
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Thomas Malthus (1789)
The perpetual tendency of the race of man to
increase beyond the means of subsistence is
one of the general laws of animated nature,which we can have no reason to expect tochange.
1214 November 2009
Is it different this time?
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Possible resolutions
Decouple development and consumption(conservation, enabled by policy andtechnology)
Find new or substitute resources
Reset expectations and restrain development
Slower, but smarter, development
Greater wisdom in infrastructure rebuild, behavior
1314 January 2010
Non-exclusive alternatives.
Outcome depends upon economy, policy, technology
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Energy Sustainability
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472
508552
596637
678
51%
49%
41%
59%
Q
uadrillionB
tu
Non-OECD countries account for 82% of the
44% increase in global energy use to 2030
Increase in global energy use
1514 January 2010Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2009, Reference Case
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California energy per capitais unchanged since ~1990
1614 January 2010
Energy/personGDP/person
Source: EIA State Energy Data Report, 2007
MillionBtu/person
$th
ousand/pers
on
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Fossil fuels dominate theworlds energy supply today
1714 January 2010
Liquids (including biofuels)
Natural gas
Coal
Renewables (excluding biofuels)
Nuclear
History Projections
36%
23%
27%
8%
6%
32%
28%
11%
23%
6%
Share of world total
Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2009, Reference Case
QuadrillionB
tu
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Substantial global fossilreserves
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Oil Gas Coal
R/P Ratio41 yrs.
R/P Ratio67 yrs.
R/P Ratio164 yrs.
Proven Proven
Proven
Yet to FindYet to Find
Yet to Find
Source: World Energy Assessment 2001, HIS, WoodMackenzie, BP Stat Review 2005, BP estimates
Unconventional
Unconventional
Reserves&Resources(bnboe)
14 January 2010 18
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Nuclear power increase
1914 November 2009
China and India account for 48% of the
world increase in nuclear power
115 121
132132
121
6774
88
42
49
71
20 23
127
54
22
7 93
1510
0
60
120
180
2006 2015 2030
Gigawatts
North America OECD EuropeOECD Asia Non-OECD Europe/EurasiaChina IndiaRest of World
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Wind and water power
2014 November 2009
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
2006 2015 2030 2006 2015 2030
TrillionKilowatth
ours
OECD Non-OECD
Hydroelectric
Wind
Other Renewables
1.6
2.2
2.9
1.8
2.7
3.8
Hydropower supplies 54% of the world
increase in renewable generation; windprovides 33%
Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2009, Reference Case
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Global energy challenges resultfrom significant imbalances
Energy poverty
Imbalance in energy access
Energy security Imbalance in geographic distribution of resources
Greenhouse gas emissions
Anthropogenic perturbation of the carbon cycle
2114 January 2010
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Distribution of crude reserves
2214 January 2010
Source: Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production, Oil & Gas Journal,Vol. 105, No. 48 (December 22, 2008), pp. 20-23.
Oil is a global market, OPEC is 40% of global supply,
and reserves are geographically concentrated
746
117
123
99
34
14
210
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Europe
Asia
Eurasia
Central & South America
Africa
North America
Middle East
Billion Barrels
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GHG emissions continue to grow
2314 January 2010
Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2009, Reference Case
Absent new policies, global energy-related CO2emissions grow 39% by 2030in EIAs reference case
Billionmetric
tons
2931
3335
3840
47%
53%
36%
64%
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US anthropogenic GHG emissions areabout energy
2414 January 2010
Source: EIA Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 2007
Over 80% of US greenhouse gasemissions in 2007 were energy-related
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Water and FoodSustainability
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Water Sustainability
Demand for water will increase Agriculture, energy
Household use in developed countries 6Xdeveloping countries
Exacerbated by climate change
There is plenty of water Quality, timing, geographical dislocation concern
Depletion of stored water (aquifers) Water is not a global commodity like oil/gas
No global market, long distance transport
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Global water resources
2714 January 2010
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What is water used for?
2814 January 2010
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Runoff change to 2050
2914 January 2010
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Food Sustainability
Demand rising with development
Increase in quality with development
(crops to animal protein)
Can we grow enough food?
3014 January 2010
Forest &
Savannah
Cereal
4.6% Pasture & Range
23.7%
30.5%
Other crops6.9%
Nonarable
34.4%
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
MillionTons
Source: FAO
World Animal Protein Production, 1961-2007
Pork
Poultry
Beef
Farmed Fish
Sheep and Goats
Animal protein production rising
3114 November 2009
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Economics explains some choices
3214 January 2010
Sources of $200B global annual agriculture revenue
$104B annual revenue
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Food yield changes to 2050
3314 January 2010
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Energy/water/food nexus issensitive to climate
Water for power production
Power to move water
Food and biofuels/biomass
Energy, water for agriculture Agriculture and land use
(deforestation)
Climate change and
agriculture/water
3414 January 2010
Source: Peter Gleick, Worlds Water2002-2003
Globally, more water is used forfood and electricity production thanis used directly
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Water-food interactions
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Global resource Sustainability
There is (or can be) enough to meet demand Economic, policy, social factors intertwine
Technology can help, but not sufficient
Graceful supply curves are a help
Conservation, new resources, substitution Best policies are not always obvious
Systems effects, diverse interests
Informed and educated populace/decision makers
essential Trends are slow to develop, long to fix
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3714 January 2010
Source: EIA
US energy supply since 1850
0%10%
20%
30%
40%
50%60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000
Renewables
Nuclear
GasOil
Hydro
Coal
Wood
Energy change is slow without deliberateacceleration
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000
Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Hydro
Coal
Wood
IT moves much faster than energy
Sales of Personal Audio/Video since 2000
14 January 2010 38
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Because energy innovation is different
Energy Frontier Research Centers Find solutions to fundamental scientific roadblocks to clean
energy and energy security
Innovation HUBS Create sustained, tightly focused research centers with
contributors from academia and industry
REgaining our ENERGY Science and Engineering Edge(ReENERGYSE) proposal Energy scientists (technology and policy)
Clean energy workers
ARPA-E Develop and deploy breakthrough energy technologies
Coordination among many Federal/State agencies
3914 January 2010
High risk, transformational research
Workforce training
Underlying science
Academia/government/industry partnerships
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High-leverage technologies that cancontribute to useful change
Biology/biotech Esp plant, microbial
Materials science
Simulation, synthesis,
characterization
Data & understanding
Physical, societal
Diagnosis, management,
prediction
4014 January 2010
Average Indiana corn yielddramatically increased
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sustainability
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The worlds GDP is unbalanced
4214 January 2010
Source: CIA World Factbook, population 2009 est, 2008 US dollars
Contributions from 4 selected areas
USEU
ChinaIndia
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Compared to the US/EU
4314 January 2010
USEU
ChinaIndia
the rest of the world is
Younger
Hungrier
Morenumerous
Developing
faster
Source: CIA World Factbook, population 2009 est, 2008 US dollars
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Nature abhors imbalance
4414 January 2010
Its the Second Law of Thermodynamics:
Sooner or later everything turns to ****Woody Allen, Husbands and Wives(1992)
Relaxation can be slowed, but greater imbalance impliesstronger driving force and more rapid/disruptive changes
sustainability is about managing imbalances and theirrelaxation
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Global equilibration
In a global world with free flow of people,goods, resources, and capital
US position of privilege difficult to sustain
Shifts in US economic, cultural, geopolitical heft
How will the US respond?
Fortress America?
Accept a position proportional to population orGDP?
Capitalize on differential advantages to realizesustainability
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Trends in US manufacturing
4614 January 2010
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US manufacturing jobs
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4814 January 2010
Worldwide shipments of Solar Photovoltaics (MW)
The situation issimilar in otherareas:
Fuel-efficientautomobiles
Batteries
ElectricityTransmission
Power Electronics
Nuclear Power
Can we better link US innovation witheconomic sustainability?
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The US in a global context Some US differential advantages
Attraction of the American idea
Rule of law
Vibrant innovation system
Free flow of capital
Protection of IP Higher Education
Infrastructure in US is built, developing world is building DW is newer, more efficient
US infrastructure needs to be rebuilt Skills and capabilities better represented abroad
Implications for immigration, labor, education policy
US must work to regain favor as a manufacturing venue
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Recap
Global development and population growth will placeunprecedented stress on resources (Sustainability)
These same factors will have a profound influence onUS domestic and global circumstances (sustainability)
Complex issues without easy or obvious solutions Must begin frank conversation, be aware of where were headed,
and the understand the implications of the decisions we make
5014 January 2010
Navigating these changes will be themajor task of the next decades
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Questions?/Comments?
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