Steele on IntelligenceWhat can we know, how?
Reflections on the near future.
Robert David Steele Vivas
MALAS in St. Louis
5 November 2005
A copy of these slides are at www.oss.net.
World War III Players
Bacteria
Nation-States
Gangs
Private Sector
Citizens
Mother EarthWater-Air-Green
You May Not Be Interested in Reality, But Reality is Interested in You
Information is a substitute for violence, capital, labor, time, and space. Information can create stabilizing indigenous
wealth.
Corrupt governments and immoral corporations or gangs destroy this option.
Good news: Collective Popular Intelligence is Emergent
Plan for the Briefing
• Two hours done in twenty minutes
• Slides posted so you can reflect more later
• 5 minutes on state of the art (Silobreaker)
• 5 minutes on sources in context
• 5 minutes on emerging technologies
• 5 minutes of ethics and morality
State of the Art
• Will blow through these• It’s not about separate sources anymore• It’s not about human reading anymore• It’s about integrating everything:
– Collecting relevant offline information– Machine-aided collation & exploitation– Connecting experts and their students– Presenting the information is a compelling way
OVERVIEWStart with an overview of what is happening in general in you area of interest
FOCUS ON A COUNTRY – VIEW 360Start with an overview of what is happening in general in you area of interest
FOCUS ON AN ORGANIZATIONSee specifics of people, places, etcetera with frequency of mention
FOCUS ON A PERSONPhotos, Quotations, Links to Others, Key Details
GET NEW INSIGHTSThis is the only global information that integrates sources with tools
READ IN DEPTH, IN CONTEXTAnything can be sent to the “scrapbook” where other tools can be applied
Silobreaker is the Next Google
• This costs $400 a year at full price.• Offered at $200 until the end of the year.• Test it free for seven days by following the
link at www.oss.net.• This has been my secret weapon for years,
now we are commoditizing it and moving on to more complex challenges—creating a World Brain.
Sources
• All information, all languages, all the time
• Going back 200 years, digitizing hardcopy
• 185 languages, 33 of them “core”
• 12 relevant dialects of Arabic
• Must follow television, radio, audio, street
• 80% of this, at least, is overlooked by IC
• Cannot be made sense of by single individual
Digital Analog Oral/Unpublished
EnglishLanguage
ForeignLanguages*
*29 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all.
NSA FBIS UN/STATE
Cascading Deficiencies:1) Don’t even try to access most information2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital3) Can’t translate most of what we collect
CIA/DO
NRO
Global Intelligence FailureBreakdown in Collection and Understanding
50% Less CostlyM
ore
Sat
isfy
ing
SIGINT
OSINT
0% 50%
HUMINT
IMINT
MASINT
STATE
Does Not Exist
Global Processing FailureBreakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination
Seven Views of RealityNot sharing, not listening, costs us.
Military
Law Enforcement
Business
Academic
National
NGO &Media
Religions& Clans
OLD PARADIGM NEW PARADIGM
# = Your Top Issues, Local, National, Global
You Are Here...
12
3
Far Future
Near Future
Present
Historical Memory
New Craft of Intelligence
I
Lessons of History
II
Global Coverage
III
National Intelligence
IV
Spies & Secrecy
China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc.
Cost-Sharing with Others--Shared Early Warning
Narrowly focused!
Harness distributed intelligence of Nation
Technologies• Cell phone, not PC, will be primary access• XML, Geocoding, standards, are making data
smart—the context is in the content• IBM just linked DB2 with Google Enterprise
—when we add CISCO AON and CISCO IPICS, we will have a globally distributed instantly exploitable World Brain
• Foreign language man-machine networks and distributed advanced analytics will add value
• Gaming, not reports, will rule
Five Technical Trends• Cell phones allow for constant pervasive data entry including
streaming video/audio, and for instant locationally-aware receipt of relevant intelligence
• Googlization of intelligence, when enhanced, will put industrial era spies and aggregators out of business—CIA, Factiva, LEXIS, DIALOG--dead
• Open Hypertext Document (OHD) from Bootstrap (Doug Englebart) allows links, discovery, and micro-cash purchase at the paragraph level
• Synthetic information breaks the copyright chains—can still pay by the paragraph, but can also create new synthetic knowledge that is original
• Virtual reality games, not reports, will teach, inspire, allow for safe testing of different scenarios and investment strategies.
Ethics & Morality
• Secrecy is pathological—secrets can be ignored and manipulated—witness Iraq
• Secrecy displaces dialog—cult of secrecy• Secrecy enables corruption & treason—not
just by governments but by corporations (Enron), Media (NYT, medical journals), and religions (Catholic Church)
• Secrecy undermines social understanding of reality and allows rich to steal from the poor
TIME IMPACT SHORT
TIME IMPACT
LONG
MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL
EQUITIES
SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION
EQUITIES
LEADERS DECIDE
PEOPLE DECIDE
TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL
SECRET SOURCES & METHODS
BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING
OPEN SOURCES & METHODS
OBVIOUS DETAIL
OBSCURE DETAIL
OLD
NEW
A Revolution is UnderwayPeer-to-Peer Distributed Ubiquitous Collective Intelligence Now Possible
Teen-Agers are Center of Gravity
• World War III will be fought in the hearts and minds of teen-agers
• Half the brain—the half that can understand “other” views—dies by the age of 35
• Morality self-directs between the ages of 25 and 35—that’s when the brain matures
• Faith matters—not ideological zealotry, but a belief in the Golden Rule and respect for cultural and religious paths chosen by others over the course of centuries.
Reality Won’t Go Away
• End of cheap oil cascades across everything• End of free water is actually a bigger threat• Rise of pandemic mutating infectious disease
could rebalance populations• Rise of crime and corruption reflects the
failure of all governments, including USA, to adapt to fast-changing real world issues
• Collection popular intelligence is in a race for life, a race that will determine our future.
Peace & Prosperity Can Be Achieved ByChanging When & How We Intervene
• Public warning can change public policy– More Prevention
– More Peacekeeping
– More Education
– More Long-Term Aid
– Less Corruption
– Less Censorship
We have a sacred duty.
Between Google and Wikis, Moral Democracy Possible
Spread the Word
Robert David Steele VivasCEO, OSS.Net, Inc.Coach, Global Intelligence
Partnership (20 companies & rising)
[email protected] speak for sushi.Use MoveOn.Org OSINT
topic to organize everywhere in the world
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