Status of the NWP-System& based on COSMO managed by ARPA-SIM
COSMO I7 7 km BCs from IFS Nudging CINECA
COSMO I2 2.8 km BCs from COSMO I7
Interpolated from COSMO I7
CINECA
COSMO (e-suite):
test suite based on COSMO I7 CINECA
COSMO bk 7 km BCs from GME
Nudging ARPA SIM cluster
COSMO LEPS 10 km 16 members
Planned developments of NWP-System based on COSMO managed by ARPA-SIM
COSMO I7 7 km BCs from IFS Nudging CINECA
COSMO I2 2.8 km BCs from COSMO I7
Nudging CINECA
COSMO (e-suite):
test suite based on COSMO I7 & COSMO I2 CINECA
COSMO bk 7 km BCs from GME
Nudging ARPA SIM cluster
COSMO LEPS 7 km 16 members Larger integration domain
Introduction of the DWD soil moisture analysis scheme Dynamical database of physiographic parameters
(leaf area index) Adoption of the multi-layer soil model Assimilation of pseudo-profiles derived from satellite
by the 1-D var technique
Planned developments of NWP-System based on COSMO managed by ARPA-SIM
Implementation of the prototype for a Rapid Updating Cycle suite at 2.8 km hor. Res.
&
Soil Moisture Analysis
Uses T_2m temperatures to adjust soil moisture during a 24 hours integration time. The scheme was firstly developed by Martin Lange (DWD)
Rapidly Updating Cycle
Leaf Area Index DYNAMICAL DATASET
MODIS estimates of LAI are used to update daily the input to the TERRA Scheme
Example of variability introduced by the use of the MODIS dataset compared to a FIX LAI Assumption.
Full validation available at: C. Knote, G Bonafe and F . Di Giuseppe The specification of Leaf Area Index for use in mesoscale weather prediction system. Monthly Weather Review, Submitted
Future Developments & Contributions to COSMO
Code management Newsletter editing Coordination of WG3 Participation to Expert Team EPS Verification Data assimilation Ensemble Forecasting
Variational Assimilation SATELLITE RADAR
People involved: Francesca Di Giuseppe, Virginia Poli, Davide Cesari, Giovanni Bonafè
Variational AssimilationSame framework for satellite and radar observations:
Convert observations (Radiances and/or rain rates (RR)) in profiles of temperature and humidity and nudge them as “pseudo”-observations.
Model Space
Observation Space
no
yes
Analysisxa=x
Minimization?0 Jx
bxJ
0J
Backgroundxb=(Tb, qb, ps
b)
x=(T, q, ps)
Initializationx=xb
Jx
0Jx
bJ
∇ obs J 0
Data Assimilation
Example of MSG assimilation
Assimilation of RR is able to dry off precipitation and also to create structures in the right place
Cumulated precipitation at +24hr forecast time for two cases. The two simulations have been performed with and without the assimilation of SEVIRI data. Data from the rain gauges network on the far right. The areas underlined with red circles are regions where the forecast showed poor performance.
NO impact: too few data assimilated
GOOD impact in reducing over predicted precipitation
Data Assimilation
Control run – Forecast +1 hour Experimental run – Forecast +1 hour
Control run – Forecast +6 hours Experimental run – Forecast +6 hours
Example of RR assimilationVery encouraging results!
Shades: Radar observation
Contours: COSMO-I2 forecasted RR
Assimilation of RR is able to dry off precipitation and also to create structures in the right place
Data Assimilation
Other developments planned on COSMO LEPS
increase of horizontal mesh-size from 10 to 7 km:
enlarge the integration domain to the north (to cover part of the Baltic sea) and to the east (to cover all Greek islands);
use the soil moisture analysis fields provided by DWD
use a better snow analysis
test the impact of extending the cluster analysis so as to consider not only ECMWF EPS, but also UKMO MOGREPS as global ensemble providing initial and boundary conditions;
develop coding of COSMO-LEPS output files in GRIB2 format;
migration to the new machine;
Ensemble
Other possible developments on COSMO LEPS also included in the PP CONSENS
Calibration
Test the impact of other perturbations based on the outcome of the COSMO-SREPS investigations
Test COSMO-LEPS nested on the under-development ECMWF EDA during MAP D‑PHASE period.
Ensemble
Developments of COSMO SREPS included in the PP CONSENS
The system is presently running quasi-regularly at ECMWF, using the Billing Units provided by some COSMO Countries.
COSMO-SREPS provides initial and boundary conditions to the convection-resolving ensemble under development at DWD (COSMO-DE-EPS) and it is used to compute a flow-dependent B-matrix for a test version of the 1d-Var assimilation of satellite data under development at ARPA-SIM.
The main developments of the system planned for the next year , which are also part of the PP CONSENS, are:
to implement a greater number of parameter perturbations, derived from the results obtained within the COSMO-SREPS Priority Project;
consolidate the suite availability by implementing a back-up suite completely managed by COSMO;
move from 10 to 7 km horizontal resolution, depending of the availability of computing resources.
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