Spotlight on Migration:causes, consequences and what the AU can do
Mehari Taddele Maru 2 July 2015
IPSS-AAU Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Talking Points
• Conceptualization and AU and IGAD policies: Migration, Displacement and Mobility
• What are the determinants, frequency, nature and trends of migration in and from Africa?
• The Mega Trends and Migration in Africa • What are the challenges, concerns and opportunities related to migration in and
from Africa?• How is (should) migration (be) governed in Africa?
Conceptual Issues: State, Sovereignty, Human Security
• State and Sovereignty• Reconceptualization of Sovereignty as Responsibility• Responsibility:
– Duty to Respect, Protect and Fulfill – both Delivery and Democracy
• Human Security: hard and soft security
Human Insecurity in continuum: Causes, Accelerators and Triggers
Soft Insecurity
-Extreme Events/Shocks -Vulnerabilities -Extreme Poverty-Social Injustice -Discrimination-Grievances -Intolerance
Hard Insecurity- Localized conflicts -Civil wars-International wars-Arms proliferations -Violence and Crimes -Terrorism and Violent Extremism
Migration Conceptualized
Migration
DisplacementForced
IDPsInternal
RefugeesExternal
MobilityVoluntary
Legal-GoodIntegrative
Illegal-Bad4Ps
Causes of displacement
Causes and Consequences of Migration
Migration stressors: Pull factors-mobility or push factors-displacementCause and Consequence of Migration on Human SecurityHuman RightsPublic HealthEnvironmentRemittancesBrain Drain Conflict
Ultimate Aim of AU Policies
Voluntary
Not forced—consent
Travel for Trade, Education, Tourism, Employment
Mega Trends-Africa Futures
In the next 30 years…1. High Population growth: 2 billion, 55% below 20 years-West and East 2. Annual increase in connectivity--2% of Africans 3. Army of unemployed youth– Also highly connected, conversant, mobile
and vocal 4. Urbanized population of 54% --- today’s figure of 38%5. Mega cities—difficult to govern and without service 6. Income gap and associated social unrest
7. Aspiration and demand for development and legitimacy 8. 94% live in improved governance 9. Continent’s GDP---USD 8.6 trillion--the current USD 1.7 trillion10. Emerging middle class---313 million--Annual increase of 10 million
Trends: dichotomy of crises and transformation
Increase in internal displacement: increase in localized conflicts and AIF• Increase in mobility: poorest nearest, mobile elite, brain drain and gain • Increase in Security Nexus: climate change, population, water, food,
energy security• Increase in infrastructural and other developments, extractive industries • Increased cross-border trade• Increase in local job protection, restrictive migration policies• Increase in xenophobic, and Afrophobia attacks: all prone, some more
prone, responsive governance critical, system failure to protect migrants• Divergent interests and contradictory end states: CoO and CoD, integration and
control
Recommendations
• Shift of Mission: From Norm-Setting to Norm-Implementation– National Consultative Conferences: the highest CoO, CoD and CoT
• Building the Four Capabilities: predictive, preventive, responsive and adaptive capabilities
• Shift of Focus: From Intervention to Prevention• Bridging the Gap: Early Warning and Early Response• Low Hanging Fruits: Informal Economy –80%---High Impact, High Return
Reasons for Lack of Comprehensive Approach
Fundamental error in viewing migration: 1. as a threat, as a problem2. as consequence of extreme poverty—the very poor doe not move far, reduce
poverty, reduce migration 3. as displacement only, not as mobility, thus not as opportunity4. divided mandate at national level5. Divergent interests and contradictory end states: CoO and CoD, integration and
control
TOWARDS COMPREHENSIVE NMP and NMA
Current Status Ad hocFragmented
Means CapabilitiesPolicyLegislative Institutional Financial Collaborative
Desired StatusEffective Governance of Migration Reduced displacement Enhanced Mobility
Infrastructural Development Driven Integration
USD 7 billion• 10 corridors• 3 ports • 2 One Stop Border Posts• 2 railway projects at advanced • 1 early stage• 18 road studies• 2 railway project studies
African Economies: Persistent Extreme (<$1.25) Poverty will decline sharply
A thread of the report story: Persistent challenges
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Mill
ion p
eople
Year2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048
Central Africa Eastern Africa Northern Africa Southern Africa Western Africa
Increase in Economic Growth and Increase in Mobility
20152016
20172018
20192020
20212022
20232024
20252026
20272028
20292030
20312032
20332034
20350
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
CentralEast/HornNorthernSouthernSouthern-SAWestern
African Regional Challenge: Intraregional Trade and Mobility
Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Lions on the Move: 25
Critical Challenges for the future Transformation outpacing crisis? or Crisis outpacing Reform?
Transformation Crisis
Will depend on four major aspects of governance
Human Security
Capable State
Delivery
Inclusivity
Security
Legitimacy
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