Spending round 2013:The case for investment in transport
[email protected]’s Office, May 2013
Key messages
• London is the productive heart of the UK economy, supporting jobs and growth across the UK
• London’s population growing faster than previously thought
• Long-term stable funding more efficient/effective for whole supply chain
• Investment is not just about transport – it’s about homes, regen, etc
2
Offer to Government:• Spade-ready road and rail projects• Delivering clear short-medium term benefits• Ongoing efficiencies programme• Over medium term covering own operating costs• Vocal support from business• Capitalising (not cutting) our investment
Relative productivity
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
North East
North West
Yorkshire
East Midlands
West Midlands
East
London
South East
South West
Wales
Scotland
Northern Ireland
Percentage difference from UK average, 2011 (source: ONS)
3
4
UK jobs and growth
• 40,000 jobs supported in supply chain outside London in 2011/12
• 64 per cent of our spend went to suppliers outside London
• 55,000 will work on Crossrail
• 3,500 apprentices, 3,400 long-term unemployed into work
Demand up 29% by 2031
6
Replace with projected growth in demand
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Inde
x: 2
001
= 10
0
MTS forecast Trips (forecast) Trips
2.1m extra publictransport trips a day
Tube crowding today
7
Station crowding 2031
5
9
30% reliability improvement
Excess journey time, minutes (measure of delays)
Train kms operated (millions)
Corridor reliability
Our investment plan: A pipeline of spade-ready projects for growth
14
Network Under way/ready to start Ready to start within 3-5 years
Tube •Northern line upgrade•Sub-surface line upgrade•Tube Reliability plan•Victoria, Tottenham Court Road, Bond Street, Paddington and Vauxhall upgrades•Bank (Waterloo & City line)•Northern Line Extension
•Extra Jubilee line trains•36 trains-per-hour on the Jubilee and Victoria lines•Bakerloo/Piccadilly line upgrade•Bank and Elephant & Castle station upgrades•Northern line upgrade 2•Croxley Rail Link
Roads •Structures and Tunnels Investment Programme•Removing roads pinch points•SCOOT traffic signal control•Old Street roundabout, Elephant & Castle,Euston Road growth schemes•Lewisham Gateway, Tottenham Hale, Streatham High Road, Malden Rushett, Olympic Park access, A1 Mill Hill Cross and Rotherhitheroundabout improvement projects•Better Junctions Programme
•New Silvertown tunnel•Vauxhall Cross, King’s Cross, Brent Cross, White City, Earls Court, Wandsworth, Waterloo, Victoria, Barking Riverside and A23 Fivewaysgrowth schemes•Tower Hill, Archway, Seven Sisters Road/St Anne’s Road, Highbury Corner, A23 PurleyCross, Stoke Newington and Gallows Corner improvement projects
Rail •Crossrail•Overground capacity expansion•Docklands Light Railway north double-tracking•Tram platform works and tram procurement
Bus •New Bus for London•Bus stop and station renewal
•Bus transit schemes
Crossrail 2 under construction to 2033
Bakerloo line extension to south east London in 2030s
15
Roads Task Force
16
• 1 slide with Embankment pic from cover of cycling strategy
18
Unlocking growth
Waterloo IMAX Croydon Fiveways Old Street Roundabout
Vauxhall / Nine Elms Tottenham Hale Elephant and CastleElephant & Castle
Capital investment
19
Efficiencies• £9.8b savings to 2017/18
• £3.3b to date
• Further £5b by 2021/22
• Roughly 15% reduction in total budget
• Includes plan to cover operating costs from revenue by 2021/22
• Examples
• £1.1bn more in commercial revenue by 2021/22
• Signalling upgrade costs cut by 66% per km
• 2,300 fewer posts so far
• Road re-surfacing costs down 40%20
Savings secured: £9.8bn Share
Support Services efficiencies 37%
Investment programme 10%
Tube maintenance 9%
Rail and Underground operations
8%
Bus network and operations 10%
Other Surface Transport operations
7%
Commercial development 3%
Long-term, stablefunding essential
• London needs the right level of funding and certainty over time
• Investment has been erratic, adding inefficiency and leaving infrastructure unmodernised
• Stop/start will add 15% to our costs
• Steady, sustainable investment:
• Best deals from suppliers
• Boosts business confidence in the UK and internationally
• Allows suppliers to invest in jobs and apprentices
£0.0bn
£1.0bn
£2.0bn
12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21
£0.0bn
£1.0bn
£2.0bn
12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21
Our net operating costs
Our capital plan
21
Net operating costs
£0.0bn
£1.0bn
£2.0bn
12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21
22
UK ‘top 40’
23
Highways Agency programme in construction – pre-2010
Spending Review
Highways Agency managed motorways programme –Spending Review projects
8 Highways Agency trunk road improvements programme –
2010 Spending Review projects
Highways Agency – Autumn Statement 2011/2012 package
Alternative approaches to resolving issues along the A14
corridor
New Lower Thames crossing
Mersey Gateway Bridge
Local transport projects – funded at or before Spending Review
2010
Local authority major transport schemes – development pool
projects
Crossrail
Thameslink
Rail infrastructure and rolling stock enhancement
East Coast Main Line
Rail electrification programme (including Great Western
Electrification)
King’s Cross station improvements Reading upgrade programme
High Speed Two
Northern rail connectivity (Liverpool-Newcastle including
Northern Hub)
Intercity Express Programme
London Underground investment programme
Northern Line Extension to Battersea
Gatwick capital investment programme
Heathrow capital investment programme
Ports – container terminal projects
Ports – renewable energy projects
Growing Places Fund
Regional Growth Fund (RGF)
Electricity generation – new nuclear investment
Carbon Capture and Storage investment
Electricity generation – gas investment (CCGT)
Electricity generation – biomass investment
Electricity generation – wind energy investment
Electricity and gas transmission and distribution investment
Smart meters
4G mobile auction and roll-out
Rural mobile coverage (Mobile Infrastructure Project)
Fixed broadband investment –private and public
Urban broadband fund – super connected cities
16 Thames Tideway Tunnel
Flood and coastal erosion risk management programme
(including Thames Estuary 2100)
TfL’s investment programme
Dependent upon TfL’s investment programme
London v Paris
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London v Paris
• French Prime Minister Ayraut announced a funding package for programme upgrades, extensions and new lines
• The announcement means funding for the ongoing Paris investment programme –Nouveau Grand Paris – is secure until 2030
• The total value of the funding package is around €30bn. €12bn has been earmarked for the modernisation of existing infrastructure
• It is estimated the programme will create one million new jobs over the next 15 years
• Businesses making decisions about where to invest in western Europe can now see a series of funded infrastructure improvements in the pipeline for Paris over the next 17 years
25
London v Paris
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Nouveau Grand London?
• Northern Line Extension• Crossrail 2• Silvertown Tunnel• Bakerloo Line and Tramlink extensions• Lea Valley 4 tracking and Barking Riverside• More significant investment in road infrastructure eg tunnelisation
• Plus…?
Unlocking growth (2)
Northern Line ExtensionThe Vauxhall, Nine Elms and Battersea Opportunity area:
• 17,000 new jobs
• 7,000 new homes
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Spending round 2013:The case for investment in transport
[email protected]’s Office, May 2013
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