Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) NCEP PSR 2014 George
Millward 1
Slide 2
Space Weather Impacts Manned Spaceflight Increased radiation
risk Power Grid Operations Grid failure, Grid capacity, Component
Failure, GPS Timing Impacts from space weather are wide-ranging
with potentially significant consequences. GPS Precision
Agriculture, Surveying, Drilling, Military Satellite Operations
Aircraft Operations, Airline Communication 2
Slide 3
1.Forecasting CME arrival at Earth WSA-Enlil in operations at
NWS 2.Regional Geomagnetic Activity Forecasts Transitioning SWMF
Geospace Model into operations at NCEP 3.Ionosphere/Upper
Atmosphere: GPS, Communications, Satellite Drag - Whole Atmosphere
Modeling 3
Slide 4
Filament eruption on August 31 2012 (NASA/SDO) The Problem:
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) Mass: 10 12 to 10 13 kg, Velocity:
300 to 3500 kms -1 4 Critical Questions: 1)Will the CME interact
with Earth? 2)If so, when? 3)How strong will the effects be?
Slide 5
WSA-Enlil model: in operations at NWS since FY12 Enlil:
Magneto-Hydrodynamic (MHD) model Grid: Spherical Coordinate System,
2 deg. lat/long, 512 radial (medium res) Fortran 90, MPI code, runs
on 32 procs on WCOSS (1.5 hours wallclock) WSA: Empirical model.
Provides steady-state background condition. 5
Slide 6
5.5 hours 6
Slide 7
Determining CME Parameters: 3 viewpoints and the CME Analysis
Tool (CAT) Stereo A Coronagraph SOHO Coronagraph Stereo B
Coronagraph CME CME Direction and Velocity 7
Slide 8
Both STEREO A and B are behind the Sun (No useful 2 nd /3 rd
view plus no communication for 2015) Earth Sun STEREO A/B
Slide 9
2015: No images from STEREO Stereo A Coronagraph SOHO
Coronagraph Stereo B Coronagraph CME CME Direction and Velocity No
STEREO BNo STEREO A
Slide 10
Running CAT without STEREO Need to get CME Width, Lat, Lon,
Speed, and Time CME Width and Speed cannot be determined
unambiguously from a single view Millward et al. 2013 CME Width =
-13 + 18.6*LOG(POS SPEED) Need a tool for computing POS speed plug
into formula to get CME width This functionality has now been built
into the CAT tool
Slide 11
WSA-Enlil Model Developments CAT tool without STEREO (utilizes
new empirical plane of sky speed vs cone angle relationship) -
collaborative project between SWPC and the UKMet Office immediate
benefits for SWPC forecast office. Current Research (Space Weather
Prediction Testbed, SWPT): Improved background model (WSA) Air
Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport Model (ADAPT).
Dynamically updating boundary to Enlil. Collaboration between SWPC
and Air Force Research Lab. (AFRL) Dynamic, non steady-state, mode
for Enlil. SWPT researchers working with Enlil developer at George
Mason University (GMU) Collaboration with researchers at University
of Colorado, Boulder (CU) research into evaluation of CME mass
(from Coronagraph images) improved CME inputs to Enlil Research
with GMU, CU and South West Research Institute (SWRI) Studies of
implementing Magnetic field orientation into CMEs within Enlil.
Ongoing Ensemble modeling studies All of the above remain research
topics at present no firm timeframe for implementation into
operations
Slide 12
1.Forecasting CME arrival at Earth WSA-Enlil in operations at
NWS 2.Regional Geomagnetic Activity Forecasts Transitioning SWMF
Geospace Model into operations at NCEP 3.Ionosphere/Upper
Atmosphere: GPS, Communications, Satellite Drag - Whole Atmosphere
Modeling 12
Slide 13
Ground Induced Currents (GICs) resulting from Solar
Wind-Magnetosphere interaction 13
Slide 14
14 South Africa: -15 transformers damaged -$60 million impact
-Basic commerce and security impaired United States: -Power reduced
at nuclear facilities to mitigate impacts The Need for Regional
Geomagnetic Activity Forecasts: Example from 2003 Long intervals of
high Kp, yeteffects regional Sweden: -Power outages -Transformer
heating in nuclear power plant
Slide 15
Satellite measurements of Solar Wind Forecast of Geomagnetic
activity: single value for the whole planet Simple empirical
relationships CURRENT CAPABILITY PROPOSED SYSTEM Satellite
measurements of Solar Wind Sophisticated 3D model of Solar
Wind-Magnetosphere running on WCOSS Forecast of Geomagnetic
activity as a global map Forecast: In 20 minutes the lights could
go out, somewhere on planet Earth Forecast: In 20 minutes the
lights could go out in New York, but not Seattle, Tokyo, etc.
Slide 16
16 real-time solar wind measurements (15 to 60 minutes
upstream) 3D geospace MHD model ionospheric electric currents
regional geo-magnetic activity prediction Geomagnetic activity
forecasts from Geospace models
Slide 17
SWPC/NCEP Geospace Model Transition project 2014: NASA/CCMC and
NOAA/SWPC, in collaboration with modelers, evaluated 5 Geospace
models: 3 large-scale MHD models and 2 empirical models (metrics:
regional dB/dt and regional K) Space Weather Modeling Framework
(SWMF, University of Michigan) was chosen by SWPC as the
Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) first principles model that would provide
a substantial improvement in Geospace weather forecasting NOAA
awards contract to UMich to assist SWPC/NCEP with model transition
tasks FY15: SWPC working with scientists at the UMich to transition
the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to operations at NCEP
Initial implementation currently being tested on devWCOSS Basic
requirement: continuous use of 64 128 procs on WCOSS (tbd) Model
needs to run in a novel real-time mode in order to provide viable
forecast (lead time 15 to 45 minutes). Control scripts need to be
able to stop/restart the model at will in response to changing
Solar Wind conditions assistance from PMB to achieve this (ecflow
suggested as the control mechanism) Transition timeframe: Basic
test-system running under DEV by October 1, 2014 (done).initial
system to be provided to PMB SPAs by October 1, 2015
Slide 18
Traditional forecast models (eg, HWRF or Enlil): The current
state of the system is known (to a greater or lesser degree) The
future drivers of the system are known (to a greater or lesser
degree) The models can be run forward into the future to provide a
forecast The models are scheduled to run at given time A Geospace
forecast model is different: Model inputs can only be measured in
real-time (forecasting these inputs is not possible) and they are
completely critical A Forecast (of between 15 and 45 minutes) is
possible because model inputs are measured in real-time 1 million
miles upstream of the Earth Think of this as a future nowcast
Critical to run model in a real-time mode any latencies in running
model will seriously eat into the forecast lead time.
Slide 19
Schematic for SWMF running in real-time on WCOSS: basic time
stepping input data [t]SWMF Control Script SWMF model [t-1] * SWMF
[t] > 1 min simulation SWMF [t] < 1 min simulation Halt SWMF
restart SWMF at [t-X] ** SWMF [t] > 1 min simulation SWMF saves
restart file *** 123 1 2 3 V[t] < V[t-1] (solar wind decreasing)
V[t] > V[t-1] (solar wind increasing) V[t] >> V[t-1]
(sharp increase - shock) *** Restart file always saved on the
minute ** WCOSS stores last 45 files before removing * SWMF checks
and waits for new input data
Slide 20
First Real-Time run [ACE -> SWMF -> Products] Sept 23 24
[SWPC -> NCO -> SWPC] FY14 milestone
Slide 21
1.Forecasting CME arrival at Earth WSA-Enlil in operations at
NWS 2.Regional Geomagnetic Activity Forecasts Geospace Model
Evaluation 3.Ionosphere/Upper Atmosphere: GPS, Communications,
Satellite Drag - Whole Atmosphere Modeling
Slide 22
Whole Atmosphere Modeling From the Ground to Space Motivation:
There is a strong need for improving forecasts of the upper
atmosphere and ionosphere Structures in the ionosphere affect radio
signals and modify radio transmission paths or block transmission
altogether Changes in Total Electron Content (TEC) impact GPS radio
navigation Ionospheric irregularities impact satellite
communication. Neutral density changes affect satellite orbits
(drag) The lower atmosphere imposes a lot of day-to-day variability
on the Ionosphere/Thermosphere system Planetary waves, gravity
waves, tides, etc propagate upward to the thermosphere. Sudden
Stratospheric Warmings change the global structure The lower
atmosphere modulates the density of the upper atmosphere and
deposits energy and heat in region above 100 km.
Slide 23
Motivation: January 2009 stratospheric warming Polar strat-warm
changes global circulation leading to vertical drifts in the
ionosphere which in turn leads to instabilities which creates
plasma structures and GPS scintillation Climatological TEC @ 10 and
16 LT from ground GPS observations. Same on January 27, after the
peak of the warming. Comparison of plasma drift climatology with
observations on Jan. 27. Goncharenko et al. (2010):
Slide 24
JULIA radar observations (Hysell & Burcham, 1998) Many low
and mid latitude ionospheric structures are driven from below
Ionospheric Structures Stimulated by Tropospheric Phenomena Return
Signal Strength
Slide 25
Solution: Couple the Extended GFS or Whole Atmosphere Model
(WAM) to the Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics Model (IPE)
Thermosphere GFS (Global Forecast Systems) Weather forecast model 0
60 km Whole Atmosphere Model WAM = Extended GFS 0 600 km Ionosphere
Plasmasphere Electrodynamics IPE Model IPE Grid Follows Magnetic
Field Lines Multi-day forecasts of ionospheric conditions Coupling
lat.- lon.-pressure level grids to field aligned grids
Parallelizing IPE Model and coupling into WAM: big undertakings,
FY13 through FY15
Slide 26
The Basic Tasks and Timeline: There are three critical research
areas that need to be addressed: 1.The development and
implementation of the Ionosphere-Plasmasphere- Electrodynamics
(IPE) module 2.Understanding the impact of increasing spatial
resolution of the model 3.Implementation and testing of new data
assimilation techniques applicable to the middle and upper
atmospheres and ionosphere. Fiscal YearTasks 2012WAM on Zeus
2013Higher Resolution WAM Begin coupling to IPE Begin GSI extension
to ~120km Establish new data flows for ionospheric input 2014Couple
to IPE Complete GSI Extension AMIE forcing complete for 120-600km
Complete V&V of tropospheric weather Impacts 2015V&V Entire
IDEA system Develop upper atmosphere product set 2016COSMIC2 First
6 satellites launched (Low-inclination orbits) 2016Assimilate
COSMIC2 and begin transition to WCOSS operations 2017WAM/IDEA
operational on WCOSS 2017 2018Couple magnetosphere to IDEA
2018COSMIC2 Final 6 satellites launched (High-inclination
orbits)
Slide 27
Tasks 2015 Joint SWPC-EMC Q4 FY15 Milestone: Execute a
real-time, research parallel run of the Whole Atmosphere Model
(WAM) coupled to the WAM data assimilation scheme (WDAS) on the
NOAA WCOSS Parallelizing IPE Model complete, but optimization
issues (solver performance, load balancing etc.) need to be
addressed Validate day-to-day variability in IPE driven by WAM
fields. Compare to COSMIC, GPS etc. WAM IPE coupling: develop
two-way coupling between WAM and IPE using the Earth System
Modeling Framework (ESMF) software Simulation and validation of
2012 and 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW)
Slide 28
Wrapping Up: WSA-Enlil in full operations since December 2011.
Continues to predict CME arrival at Earth with mean forecast
accuracy of +/- 7 hours. Upgrades being tested by SWPC and
collaborators (AFRL, GMU, CU). The loss of useful STEREO data is a
challenge - but practical developments of the CAT tool provide a
promising workaround. SWPC in the process of transitioning the
Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) with the assistance from
UMich model developers. Initial system on devWCOSS up and running
(but lots more work to do). Plan/timeframe is to provide an initial
Geospace forecast system to PMB by October 1, 2015. SWPC/ CU CIRES
researchers developing WAM/IPE upper atmosphere model as an
extension to GFS. Parallelizing and coupling IPE into WAM have been
major projects. Operational systems projected in the FY17-18
timeframe.