South African Weather Service -
Parliamentary Portfolio Committee
Presentation
Dr Linda Makuleni
02 SEPTEMBER 2014
“Saving lives and property”
CONTENTS
2
• About SAWS
• SAWS Strategy
• Challenges
• Opportunities
• Conclusion
Doc Ref no: CA-PPT-PPCEA 02
02 September 2014
ABOUT THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE
SAWS MANDATE
• South African Weather Service Act, Act No. 8 of 2001
• SAWS Amendment Act, Act No. 48 of 2013),
• Public Finance Management Act (PFMA), Act No. 1 of
1999 and associated Treasury Regulations.
SAWS MANDATE The objects of SAWS are:
• to maintain, extend and improve the quality of
meteorological services and ambient air quality-related
information services for the benefit of all South
Africans;
• to provide public good services and commercial services
to all South Africans;
• to ensure the ongoing collection of meteorological and
ambient air quality data over South Africa and
surrounding southern oceans for the use by current and
future generations;
• to be the long-term custodian of a reliable national
climatological record and ambient air quality services;
SAWS MANDATE The objects of SAWS are:
• to be the long-term custodian of a reliable national
climatological record and ambient air quality services;
• as the national meteorological service of the Republic of
South Africa, to fulfil the international obligations of
the Government under the Convention of the World
Meteorological Organisation;
• as the Aviation Meteorological Authority, to fulfil the
international obligations of the Government under the
Convention of the International Civil Aviation
Organisation;
SAWS MANDATE
The objects of SAWS are:
• to provide services that are sensitive to the
demographic realities of the country;
• to fulfil such other weather-related or ambient air
quality international obligations as the Minister may
direct; and
• to be custodian of the South African Air Quality
Information System (SAAQIS) and manage, operate,
develop and maintain the National Ambient Air Quality
Monitoring Network (NAAQMN).
BENEFICIARIES
VISION STATEMENT
“A weather and climate centre of excellence providing innovative solutions
to ensure a weather-ready region, sustainable development and economic
growth”
VISION
MANDATE
SAWS will realize its vision through excelling in the following areas: • Thought leadership in meteorological,
climatological and other related sciences;
• The development of relevant and innovative applications and products utilising cutting edge technology;
• Establishing and leveraging collaborative partnerships.
MISSION
SAWS is guided by and committed to the following set of values:
• THOUGHT LEADERSHIP
• PROFESSIONALISM • INTEGRITY • CARING
• ACCOUNTABILITY
• RECOGNITION OF EXCELLENCE
• TEAMWORK
SAWS VALUES
• National: Contribute to Climate Change and Variability Adaptation
• the safety of life and property
Ensure Sustainability of Meteorological Competence
E.g. Build a national talent pool of atmospheric science and related services
• Regional: Meteorological Association of Southern Africa
African Ministerial Conference on Meteorology
SAWS OBLIGATIONS
• International: Regional Telecommunications Hub – Telecomms hub
Regional Training Centre – WMO Accredited training center
RSMC – Specialised early warning programmes
Global Producing Centre for Long-Range Forecast-
EUMETSAT CoE – Satellite Meteorology capacity building
International Civil Aviation Organisation(ICAO)
SAWS OBLIGATIONS
OVERVIEW OF ACHIEVEMENTS
Achievements vs. Target
45 targets
- 36 Achieved
- 9 Not Achieved
80% achieved of the targets
OVERVIEW OF SUCCESSES 2013/14
Employment Equity Statistics : 388 Employees
Core Skills Equity Distribution: 291 Employee
Government Grant Revenue Analysis
Regulated Commercial Revenue – (Aviation Revenue)
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
Aviation revenue 44 180 374 47 501 021 46 131 571 52 704 478 52 148 957 49 031 180 70 631 332 80 417 444 73 771 350 81 952 308
0
10 000 000
20 000 000
30 000 000
40 000 000
50 000 000
60 000 000
70 000 000
80 000 000
90 000 000
Axis
Tit
le
Non-regulated Commercial Revenue
STAKEHOLDER PERCEPTIONS
PRODUCT & SERVICE ACHIEVEMENTS
Product Description Impact
Hail Cast System Forecasting the occurrence and
size of hail for SA and SADC.
Severe Weather Warning
product. Preventing losses and
damages.
Real time Precipitation Monitoring Radar and satellite products to
monitor precipitation.
Serve as input towards flash flood
warning systems such as the
SAFFG and SARFFG
Fire Danger Index Highlights hotspots for outbreak
of veld fires
Disaster Management
Climate Change Scenarios Projected changes in the future
climate including droughts, floods
and heat waves.
Reduction in losses and
damages from extreme weather
hazards.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY APPLICATIONS AND IMPACT
Product Description Impact
Lightning Activity Map (LAM) and
lightning climatology (LC)
Products indicating in real-time
lightning occurrence
Severe weather warning to the
public on cellphones and
Lightning Climatology for an
indication of lightning prone areas
in the country
Hybrid CCTV/AWS systems Designed to monitor real time
conditions to ensure quick
responses to changing weather
conditions. The application is
used by:-
National Ports, Municipalities,
Construction Industry +
Any agency that needs to monitor
weather
Community Rainfall Station
(CRS)
Designed to monitor rainfall rate.
Risk indicator for potential
flooding. Self configured through
mobile phone.
Disaster managers,
municipalities, Schools,
Communities (including home
owners), events etc.
Future Services:
Agro & Hydro Applications and
Products
Products that addresses
applications on specific sectors.
Health , Agriculture, Hydrology,
Energy , DRR etc.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY APPLICATIONS AND IMPACT
SAWS STRATEGY
SAWS STRATEGIC APPROACH
Scientific excellence
Quest for best in its
class
SAWS ACT
SAWS Mandate
National & International
obligations
SAWS STRATEGIC LINE OF SIGHT
27
SAWS CONTEXTUAL OVERVIEW AND STRATEGIC DIRECTION
Growth
2001 – 2010/11
Consolidation
2011/12 – 2014/15
Sustainability
2914/15 - 2020
STRATEGIC DRIVERS
Compliance with relevant
legislation and regulatory
framework
Organisational Capability
Resource Constraints
Competition
Templ ref: PPT-ISO-.001 Doc
Ref no: CEO – QUAR-REP
112012
30
SAWS Organisational Overview
SAWS Key Value Add Activities
0 – 6
Hours
24 -72
Hours
4 -10
Days
11- 30
Days
30 Days– 2 Years
> 2 Years
F
ore
cast
Observations Numerical Weather Prediction Global Climate Model
-Satellite
-Radar
-SAFFG
-Synops
-LDN
-Upper Air
-Regional (SADC)
-Local (SA)
-Mesoscale
-Ensembles
-MOS
Coupled: GCM+ Ocean
-Medium range
(ECMWF)
-Ensembles
(NCEP)
-MOS
-Ensembles
-MOS
-Multi-model
Ensembles
-MOS
-Ocean Models-
GCM Ensembles
Outlook:
-Rainfall &
temperature
anomalies
Advisories:
-Potential
hazardous
weather
events
-Rain and
temperature
anomalies
Outlook:
-Rainfall and
temperature
anomalies
-Rainfall and
Temperature
Tendencies
-Climate
Change
Watches & Warnings:
-Severe weather
-Daily weather elements
Disaster
management,
Hydrology,
Public
Disaster Man,
Agriculture,
Hydrology,
Commerce
Disaster Man,
Public,
Agriculture,
Commerce
Commerce,
Agriculture,
Health,
Energy
Commerce,
Agriculture,
Health,
Energy
Strategic planning
Agriculture,
Energy,
Environment.
B
en
efi
ts
P
rod
uc
ts
To
ols
6-24
Hours
SAWS Infrastructure
Lightning
Detection
Network Radar Network Automatic Weather
Stations
SAWS INFRASTRUCTURE
Key Strategic Goals and Objectives
KEY STRATEGIC GOALS & OBJECTIVES STRATEGIC GOALS STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES
1.To ensure the continued relevance of the organisation in delivering meteorological and related products and services
1.1. Maintain compliance will all statutory requirements
1.2. Improve programmes and applications for weather and climate variability, climate change adaptation and mitigation
1.3. Develop products and services
KEY STRATEGIC GOALS & OBJECTIVES STRATEGIC GOALS STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES
2. To ensure the effective
management of stakeholder,
partner and key client relations
2.1. Maintain stakeholder relationships
2.2. Increase partnerships and collaborations
KEY STRATEGIC GOALS & OBJECTIVES STRATEGIC GOALS STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES
3. To address the short-term viability and long-term sustainability of SAWS revenue and ensure continued fiscal discipline
3.1. Grow public good revenue
3.2. Grow aviation revenue
3.3. Grow commercial revenue
KEY STRATEGIC GOALS & OBJECTIVES STRATEGIC GOALS STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES
4. To ensure continuous organisational effectiveness and efficiency
4.1. Provide and enhance optimal observation network, processing and dissemination platforms
4.2. Retain and Maintain the Total Quality Management System
KEY STRATEGIC GOALS & OBJECTIVES STRATEGIC GOALS STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES
5. To create a strategy - driven human capital capacity for SAWS performance
5.1. Ensure the availability of strategy-driven human capital capacity
5.2. Build a talent pool for atmospheric science and related services
KEY RESOURCES REQUIRED Resource Type Comment
Physical Key weather and climate infrastructure
Infrastructure Recapitalisation plan and MSP need funding
Human Well respected scientists
Human Capacity is required to effect the Research and Development strategy, Agro Hydro feasibility study, MSP as well as the Preventative Maintenance Plan
Technology Cutting edge, innovative technology
Automation of business processes
Integration of systems
Financial Financial and fiscal discipline
Additional funding required
Cost structure
Intellectual SAWS brand
Proprietary knowledge
Strategic alliances and partnerships
Promote innovation and IP management and IKM
PROJECTED INCOME STATEMENT FOR 2015/16 TO 2019/20
Budget
Description 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20
R'000 R'000 R'000 R'000 R'000 R'000
Total Revenue 317,289 303,353 348,123 373,040 425,447 446,719
Total Expenses (287,289) (303,353) (348,123) (373,040) (391,691) (411,276)
Operating Surplus/(Deficit)
(before depreciation and amortisation)
30,000 - - - 33,756 35,443
Depreciation and Amortisation (28,743) (28,116) (30,250) (32,147) (33,756) (35,443)
Surplus / (Deficit) for the year 1,257 (28,116) (30,250) (32,147) - -
Medium Term Estimates Projections
PROJECTED INCOME STATEMENT FOR 2015/16 TO 2019/20
• These are preliminary figures as submitted to National Treasury via the Department of Environmental
Affairs on the 28 July 2014 and are subject to approval awaited in December 2014 / January 2015.
Budget
Description 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20
R'000 R'000 R'000 R'000 R'000 R'000
Revenue
Government Grant - Operational 138,229 145,507 174,278 192,438 235,815 247,606
Government Grant - Capex 30,000 - - - - -
Government Grant - SAAQIS 14,260 14,916 15,707 14,800 15,540 16,317
Commercial Income 26,000 36,981 46,892 48,993 51,443 54,015
Aviation Income 101,800 98,449 103,371 108,540 113,967 119,665
Other income and Donor Funds 7,000 7,500 7,875 8,269 8,682 9,117
Total Revenue 317,289 303,353 348,123 373,040 425,447 446,719
Expenditure
Employee Costs (196,401) (209,167) (222,763) (237,243) (249,105) (261,560)
Administrative and Operating Costs (90,888) (94,186) (125,360) (135,797) (142,587) (149,716)
Total Expenditure (287,289) (303,353) (348,123) (373,040) (391,691) (411,276)
Operating Surplus Before Depreciation and
Amortisation 30,000 - - - 33,756 35,443
Depreciation and Amortisation (28,743) (28,116) (30,250) (32,147) (33,756) (35,443)
Surplus / (Deficit) for the year 1,257 (28,116) (30,250) (32,147) - -
Medium Term Estimates Projections
2014 MTEF PROPOSALS FOR NEW AND EXISTING CAPITAL PROJECTS
SAWS has adopted an Enterprise Risk management (ERM) approach in facilitating the risk management process
An ERM was conducted, resulting in the identification of the KEY strategic
risks
• Infrastructure management
• Funding
• Slow pace of Commercialisation of SAWS products
SAWS RISK PROFILE
KEY PROGRAMMES
Climate Change and Variability
Commercialisation and Resource Mobilisations
Infrastructure Recapitalisation
Business Optimisation and Re-alignment
Human Capital Development
CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY PROGRAMME
Severe Weather Early Warning System
• Through this programme, SAWS is able to alert Disaster
Managers and Public to minimize impact
• Recent example: March 2014 floods (Limpopo pictures below)
Templ ref: PPT-ISO-.001 Doc Ref no: SAWS-MINISTER-DM BILATERAL-03062014
CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY PRIORITY AREA: Climate change impacts effective management
MTSF (2019) SAWS INPUT (2019)
Adaptation plans developed for 6
key sectors
• Implementation of the Research and development strategy
• Establishment of hydrometeorology and Agro-meteorology capabilities
• Development of 8 Product/Service Applications and Systems
• Develop, operate and manage SAAQIS/NAAQMN
• Severe Weather Warning System maintenance and enhancement.
• Early Warning System
• Severe Weather Forecasting guidance products SADC
• South African Flash Flood Guidance system
• Southern African Regional Flash Flood Guidance system
CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY PRIORITY AREA: A fair contribution to the global effort to stabilize GHG concentrations in the atmosphere
facilitated
MTSF (2019) SAWS INPUT (2019)
Development and
Implementation of sector
adaptation strategies/plans
• Conduct Research to improve climate change modelling techniques as well as
climate change impacts on severe weather patterns
• Research Project on Climate Change impacts on drought and flood hazards in
South Africa for planning and decision making completed
• Research Project on the implications of changes in soil moisture – climate
interactions on droughts, heat waves and desertification in the SADC region
completed
• Research Project on the impacts of the 2°C global warming target over the SADC
region completed
• Continuous monitoring of trace gas and green house gas species conducted
• Solar resource monitoring stations established
CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY PRIORITY AREA: A fair contribution to the global effort to stabilize GHG concentrations in the atmosphere
facilitated
MTSF (2019) SAWS INPUT (2019)
Establish a national framework for
climate services (SAWS)
• National Framework for Climate Services (NFCS) developed and
implemented in line with the National Climate Change
Response Policy and the GFCS Roadmap.
• Observations and Monitoring
• Climate Services information System
• Research, Modeling and Prediction
• Capacity Development
Framework for reporting on Green
House Emissions by industry
developed and reports provided
A fully functional SAAQIS/NAAQMN
GAW Station Monitoring of GHG
CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY PRIORITY AREA: Cleaner and healthy air
MTSF (2019) SAWS INPUT (2019)
% compliance with National Annual Ambient Air
Quality Standards
(National Air Quality Indicator – NAQI less than 1)
Continuous collection and storage of ambient air quality data
on SAAQIS as well as maintenance of the database
100% facilities with Atmospheric Emission Licences
reporting to the National Atmospheric Emissions
Inventory System (NAEIS)
Hosting of SAAQIS
NAEIS will be within the SAAQIS
% compliance with National Annual Ambient Air
Quality Standards
(National Air Quality Indicator – NAQI less than 1)
There are currently 98 ambient air quality monitoring stations
reporting to SAAQIS.
Continued operation of Vaal, Highveld and Waterberg priority
area monitoring networks by SAWS and data reported to
SAAQIS
80% data recovery for all stations operated by SAWS.
Monthly air quality monitoring reports compiled and
submitted to DEA.
WIS Revenue:
Makes up 35% of total Non-
regulated commercial revenue
Revenue has increased by 32%
year-on-year to R5,8 million
Growth in Revenue of 573% since
2010
857 713
1 977 496
3 525 340
4 384 785
5 772 943
WIS
WIS Revenue Analysis - Last 5 Years
FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014
COMMERCIALISATION & RESOURCE MOBILISATION PROGRAM
INFRASTRUCTURE RECAPITALISATION PROGRAMME
• Automation of observation infrastructure
• Optimal observation network • Preventative Maintenance Plan
o Attainment of 80% availability of information from key observation
infrastructure, e.g. Radars, SAAQIS
o Planned maintenance of infrastructure (e.g. AWS, ARS, CRS, LDN etc.)
done as per schedules
• Implementation of MSP ICT is core in supporting SAWS business for both national and international operations
o High Performance Computing (HPC)
-Higher Model resolution
-More accurate Weather Forecast
-Enhanced applications (for Climate Change impact-adaptation)
Fettes Street – close to PE Stadium
Nelson Mandela Municipality
AWS and pan tilt camera
Port of Ngqura
APPLICATION-HYBRID CCTV/AWS
BUSINESS OPTIMISATION & RE-ALIGNMENT
Maintenance of TQM System
Improvement and optimisation of business processes to
ensure cost effectiveness
Implementation of the BCP
HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM
• SAWS Human Capital Management Strategy:
o Talent Management
o Attraction and Retention
o Dual Career Path
o Critical Skills Transfer
o Bursary scheme
o Leadership Development program
o Structured Closer Collaboration with Academic
Institutions
• WMO accredited Regional Training Centre
• National Skills Catalytic Program
– Respond to NDP – build necessary capacity
and capability.
– National & Local Government
– Skills:
• Hydro meteorology
• Agro meteorology
• Air quality
HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM
CHALLENGES
Operational Grant Trend over last 5 years
Operational Grant excluding SAAQIS over last 5 years 2014/15 20113/14 2012/13 2011/12 2010/11
R R R R R
MTEF Proposed Budget 158 229 000 149 490 000 154 671 000 142 469 000 135 915 000
MTEF Approved Budget 138 229 000 149 490 000 138 318 000 126 024 000 135 915 000
Reduction in Proposed Budget 20 000 000 - 16 353 000 16 445 000 -
% Decrease in Proposed Budget 13% 0% 11% 12% 0%
% Increase/(Decrease) in Approved Budget (year-on-year) -8% 8% 10% -7% 4%
Operational Grant versus Total Revenue
2004/05 2013/14
Employee Costs as % of Operational Grant
Employee Costs as % of Total Cost
IMPACT OF BUDGET CONSTRAINT
Reputation of the Country –
National and International
24/7
Service/ Warnings
Repairs & Maintenance
Service Provision to Commercial
Clients
R & D
HRD
Knowledge Generation
Aviation Safety and Safe Sky
Data Quality; Reliability &
Integrity
2014/15 Maintenance Budget
Budget 2014/15
R3,7M
Budget required
R10,8M
Shortfall
-R7M
Radar Data Availability Qtr2 to date Radar Equipment Availability - Qtr 2
Radar Site
July % Performance
August % Performance
Average % Performance
Targeted SLA + TQM Performance %
Irene 71.71 79 75.36 80
Polokwane 100 100 100.00 80 Ermelo 0.07 0.07 0.07 80
Durban 98.78 100 99.39 80 Bethlehem 100 79 89.50 80 Bloemfontein S 100 95 97.50 80
Ottosdal 0.07 0.07 0.07 80 Port Elizabeth 97.52 100 98.76 80
East London 100 100 100.00 80
Cape Town 77.17 100 88.59 80
De Aar 100 100 100.00 70 Mthata 25.32 0 12.66 70 George 0.07 0 0.04 70
Skukuza 89.29 100 94.65 80
Average 69 68 68.33 80
Key Issues Affecting Radar Network
April May June Qtr Avg AVR GENSET UPS AIRCON
Irene 98.86 99.26 71 89.71
Polokwane 98.10 94.68 100 97.59
Skukuza 84.10 81.06 77 80.72
Ermelo
Durban 100.00 99.68 60.93 86.87
Bethlehem
Bloemfontein S 88.56 49.72 100 79.43
Ottosdal
De Aar 98.40 89.22 65.76 84.46
Port Elizabeth 99.45 98.00 100 99.15
Mthata 70.16 93.69 6.45 56.77
East London 100.00 83.79 97.51 93.77
Cape Town
George
Status of Power Supply &
Cooling
RESOLVED
RESOLVED
Filtered Radar Data Availability from April to June 2014Comments
Running, but Genset broken down. UPS needs
service
UPS Problems - contract/legal? SLA required
for all radar UPS
It took 3 months to buy batteries for the UPS
UPS needs repairs. Genset needs service.
Frequent power outages.
Spares - Delivery ,March 2015. No UPS.
Genset needs repairs
Reoccuring elevation fault. Cannot guarantee
performance yet
OPPORTUNITIES
Stakeholder Management
New Emerging Opportunities & Challenges
Partnership & Alliances
Balancing Commercialisation with Public Good
Top Line Interventions
STAKEHOLDER RELATIONS MANAGEMENT MATURITY MODEL
Employees
SAWS Suppliers
Business Partners
New Clients
RCMS and Aviation Industry
Government
Knowledge Institution
Climate Change and Variability
• Research and develop application and/or provide
services:
o Adaptation Plans for key sectors within Green
Economy
o National Climate Change Policy
o National Development Plan Chapter 5
• Compliance with National Annual Ambient Air Quality
Standards
EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES
Commercialisation and Resource Mobilization
• Science based solution for the Renewable Energy
Industry
• Manage risk and protect safety of life
• Planning and risk management
• Adaptation Strategies: Early Warning Systems &
Hazardous Weather Conditions
• Weather Sensitive Industries: easy of access to
information
EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES
Infrastructure Recapitilisation
• Enhance the observation network in support of Climate
Change and variability Adaptation – Provinces and
Municipalities
• Collaboration and partnership aligned to provincial and
municipality climate change and disaster risk reduction
plans
EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES
Business Optimisation and Realignment
• Quality service to the International / regional / national
programmes
• Provision of meteorological Public Good and Commercial
Services
• Provision of critical services
• Collaboration with Security Cluster
EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES
Human Capital Development
• National Educational Plan enabler for National
Development Plan Chapter 5 & 9
• Develop national capabilities contributing to specific
sectors – improve R&D, sustainable infrastructure
development and national economic growth
EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES
CONCLUSION
• Resource Mobilisation • Continued investment in
Infrastructure and Human Capital
• Stakeholder Relations Management
• Strong Collaboration • Policy Development and
Governance Framework that promote organisational agility to respond to emerging competitors and opportunities
CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS - SUSTAINABILITY
Strategic Plan is geared towards long term sustainability of SAWS and Supports Government Priorities
I thank you
CONCLUSION
Discussion?
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