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Solar PV Market in India
Market Potentials and Business Applications for Photovoltaic in India 25.10.2013, Berlin, GermanyTimon Herzog, Sandeep Goel, GIZ / ComSolar
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Challenging Energy Future
28/10/2013
Growth assumptions for 2070 1:
• 1.7 Billion population (1.2 today)
• 2000 kWh per capita electricity consumption (625 KW h today)
• 2070 no more (economic feasible) fossil fuels avail able
� 3400 TWh electrical energy required (Germany 2012: 5 94,5 TWh)
�More than tripling todays demand (~ 1000 TW h)1 own assumptions following aggregation of different sources e.g. CIA Worldfactbook, Census data, IEA projections
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Scenario for 3400 TWh non-fossil supply?
28/10/2013
Exemplary calcualation 1:
1200 TWh hydroelectric, wind, biomass & large scale PV
PLUS:
2200 TWh in 540 nuclear power plants (1 reactor every 11 KM on the Indian coast)
OR:
One 3 kWp PV rooftop system on every 4th Indian hous ehold (~1275 GWp capacity / ~ 22 GWp annually from 2013)
� Theoretically enough to do for the PV-Sector!1 Atul H. Chokshi, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore
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I. About ComSolar
II. Electricity sector in India
III. Playground for rooftop solar
IV. Development of solar – so far
V. Challenges & market requirements
Pic
ture
s: G
IZ, D
MR
C
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Commercialisation of solar energy in urban and industrial areas (ComSolar)
28/10/2013
Around 15 activities for facilitation of solar ther mal and PV applications on behalf of BMU / IKI
Flagship activities:
• www.solarguidelines.in – pathway for project finance and implementation
• Policy support for rooftop solar – policy advisory for MNRE, states and cities
• Solar thermal in process heat applications for industries
• Solar Air Heating in the Himalaya – with Solar-Institut Jülich & SWT Stuttgart
• Demo projects – E.g. :PV metro, Green cricket, IndiaOne
• Capacity building - workshops, trainings, awareness building
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I. About ComSolar
II. Electricity sector in India
III. Playground for rooftop solar
IV. Development of solar – so far
V. Challenges & market requirements
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• Population: 1.2 billion (Nearly 14 times of Germany)
• Area: about 10 times of Germany
• 69% population lives in rural areas
• About 350 million people still depend on kerosene for lighting
• 3rd largest CO2 emitting country but with very low per capita emissions
• 28 states and 7 union territories with strong federal character
India snapshot
28.10.2013
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Thermal; 153,8 ; 68%
Large Hydro; 39.6 ; 17%
Nuclear; 4,8 ; 2%
Wind Power; 19,7 ; 9%
Small Hydro Power ; 3,7 ; 2%
Cogeneration-bagasse; 2,3 ;
1%Biomass Power; 1,3 ; 0%
Solar Power; 1,8 ; 1%
Waste to Energy; 0,1 ; 0%
Renewable energy; 28.9 ;
12%
Grid Connected Installed Capacity – 228 GW1
28/10/2013
1Source: Central Electricity Authority, Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (As on 31.07.2013)
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Thermal comprises of 87% coal, 12% Gas and 1% diesel powerCaptive Generation Capacity in Industries (as on 31-03-2011)=34,444.12 MW
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Electricity demand & supply gap in India
28/10/2013
• The demand and supply represents only for grid connected households.
• Still, 350 million people have no / not sufficient access to electricity
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Source: Central Electricity Authority, Census of In dia 2011
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
10,0%
12,0%
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13*
Ele
ctric
al e
nerg
y in
TW
h
Years
Electrical energy required Electrical energy supplied Shortage (%)
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Agriculture Pumping; 18%
Commercial buildings; 2%
Municipalities; 2%
Domestic; 24%
Industry, 53%
Electricity consumption pattern
28/10/2013
• Huge potential for onsite generation through solar
• Apart from electricity, direct diesel engine drives are commonly used for agriculture pumping applications
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Source: Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE)
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Summary
28/10/2013
• India’s biggest challenge is to supply electricity to 1.2 billion people
• Majority of electricity demand in India is met by Thermal power plants
• Renewable Energy (excluding large hydro) constitutes about 12% of supply mix
• The difference between demand and supply of electricity remains between 8-10%
• Domestic electricity supply is the 2nd largest demand segment after industrial
sector for electricity – huge potential for rooftop solar
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I. About ComSolar
II. Electricity sector in India
III. Playground for rooftop solar
IV. Development of solar – so far
V. Challenges & market requirements
Pic
ture
s: G
IZ, D
MR
C
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Retail electricity costs in India (Euro/kWh*)(at 85 INR/EUR)
28/10/2013
• Commercial consumers pay more to subsidize domestic and agricultural consumers (almost free electricity)
• Consumers are facing abrupt tariff hikes.
• Commonly used diesel backup power (~ 30 GW) is too expensive and polluting
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0,08 0,09
0,08 0,07
0,01
0,17
Domestic CommercialLT
CommercialHT
Industrial Agriculture DieselBackup*Average of tariff from four main states
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1100-1300 kWh/m 2 1250-2150 kWh/m 2
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High solar radiation in India
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Results from 10.47 kWp rooftop plant at German House, New Delhi
28.10.2013
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5.52 kWp (Multi-crystalline) and 4.95 kWp (Thin film)
Specific yield: 1442 kWh/kWp/year
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4%5% 5%
7% 7%
11%
8%6% 7%
14%
8%
14%
20%
24%
10%
Korea Japan Germany Italy Australia SouthAfrica
France China USA Canada UK Russia Brazil India World
Comparison of Transmission and Distribution losses
28/10/2013
• Data represents technical and commercial losses
• Largest problem at the distribution level
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Source: Central Electricity Authority
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Major market opportunities
28.10.2013
Large Ground Mounted: Central/State tariff/VGF ���� PPA revenues
Medium size ground/rooftop: REC mechanism ���� REC+PPA revenues
Small/Medium size rooftop: captive consumption & NME ���� Electricity/diesel savings
Diesel abatement– telecom towers �Diesel savings
Rural applications (not covered in this presentation)
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1. Large Ground Mounted
28.10.2013
Parameters State policies Central policies
Policy DiverseNational solar mission(20 GW till 2022)
Plant size 5-50 MW 10-50 MW
Average determined Tariffs
0.07-0.11 Euro/kWh(6.45-9.27 INR/kWh)
VGF – to be determined
Current capacity allocations
About 2 GW 750 MW (JNNSM II. B1)
Time of procurement Ongoing till Q2 2014 Q3/4 2014
Domestic content requirement
No Yes, on 375 MW
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2. Medium size ground/rooftop based on REC mechanism
28.10.2013
• Registered projects – 180 MW
• Accreditated projects – 200 MW
• No domestic content requirement
@ APPC by SERCEur 0.02-0.04/kWh
@ Rate at Exchange Platform
(Euro 109-157/REC*)
Renewable Energy
Electricity
REC
DistributionCompany
Obligated Entity
(Buyer)
RECMechanism
OA / TraderAgreement @
Mutually Agreed Price
1MWh=1 REC* Price fixed only till 2017
Source: www.recregistryindia.nic.in
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OA – Open Access ConsumerSERC – State Electricity Regulatory CommissionAPPC – Average pooled Purchase cost
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3. Rooftop PV for captive supply
28.10.2013
Key drivers of the market
• Retail electricity more expensive everyday (partial solar parity)
• Unreliable conventional grid power
• Expensive and polluting Diesel power
• MNRE Capital subsidy (30%) can be available
• Accelerated Depreciation (80% first year) available
• State Governments come up with additional incentives/subsidies
• Net/Gross metering is being developed in many states
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State policies focused on rooftop
28/10/2013
Net metering
• Bidirectional metering
• Monthly credits
• Annual settlements
States: Andhra Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Tamil Nadu, Punjab, West Bengal
FIT
• Fixed levelized tariff for 25 years
• Eur 0.12-0.13/kWh (INR10.36 -11.57/kWh*)
• Applicable upto 1 MW
States: *Gujarat
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4. Solarizing Telecom Towers
28.10.2013
• 580,000 telecom towers; 5 billion litres diesel consumption/year
• 3 billion Euro diesel expenditure every year
• Diesel power @ Euro 0.17/kWh vs Solar @ Euro 0.09/kWh*
Cell sites Grid availability Description
10% >20 hrs Mainly metro cities like Delhi, Kolkata, Chennai etc.
20% 16-20 hrs Most cities and towns
30% 12-16 hrs Semi-urban and small urban towns
25% 8-12 hrs Mostly rural areas
15%<8 hrsOff grid
Mostly parts of Bihar and some towns of Assam, NE states, UP and J&K
Source: Telecom Authority of India
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* Without battery
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I. About ComSolar
II. Electricity sector in India
III. Playground for rooftop solar
IV. Development of solar – so far
V. Challenges & market requirements
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Market developments so far..
28/10/2013
•Majority of installations are ground mounted large power plants (>2-3 MW)
•Share of rooftops <10% (estimation)
•Long term plans of 20 GW till 2022
0,0
0,9
1,7 1,8
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 31.07.13
Solar PV installed capacity in India (GWs)
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0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% 25,0%
FIRST SOLARCANADIAN SOLAR
TRINA SOLARSHARP SOLARCHINT SOLARJINKO SOLAR
YINGLI SOLARC-SUN
NEX POWERVIKRAM SOLAR
SUNWELLSOLAR FRONTIER
MOSERBAER SOLARTATA POWER SOLAR
LANCO SOLARWAAREE ENERGIES
SUNTECHDUPONT APOLLO
REC GROUPEMMVEE
WEBEL SOLAR/RENESOLASCHUCO
ABOUND SOLARAVANCISMIASOLE
LDK SOLARHANWHAT-SOLAR
SUNNER SOLARSOLAR WORLD
BHELJAIN IRRIGATIONPREMIER SOLARSCHOTT SOLAR
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Market share of Module suppliers
Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA
Share of German companies – 2%
* This analysis should be taken as just an indicato r and actual market share may differ
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Market share of third party EPCs
28/10/2013
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0,0% 2,0% 4,0% 6,0% 8,0% 10,0% 12,0% 14,0% 16,0% 18,0% 20,0%
MOSERBAER SOLARLARSEN AND TOUBRO
LANCO SOLARSTERLING AND WILSON
JUWI ENERGYVIKRAM SOLAR
MEGHA ENGINEERINGREFEX ENERGY
TATA POWER SOLARWIPRO ECOENERGYWAAREE ENERGIES
ARIES WAAAREECIRUS SOLAR
INDU PROJECTSMAHINDRA SOLAR
RAYS EXPERTSEMMVEE SOLARENFINITY SOLAR
ELECTROTHERM IMMODOPREMIER SOLAR
SUNTECHNICSBHEL
PHOTONCHEMTROLS SOLAR
MADHAV POWERABB
INSOLARE ENERGYSOLAR SEMICONDUCTOR
SUNBORNE ENERGY
Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA
Share of German companies – 6.4%
* This analysis should be taken as just an indicato r and actual market share may differ
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0,00% 5,00% 10,00% 15,00% 20,00% 25,00% 30,00% 35,00%
SMA
BONGFIGLIOLI
ABB
POWERONE
AEG
SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC
SIEMENS
SATCON
ELTEK VALERE
ELECTRONICA SANTERING
DELTA
HITACHI-HIREL
FECON
REFUSOL
IDS
INGETEAM
HELOFAX
KACO
FRONIUS
BOSCH
GAMESA
Market share of Inverter suppliers*
28/10/2013
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Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA
Share of German companies – 33.3%
* This analysis should be taken as just an indicato r and actual market share may differ
Seite 28
I. About ComSolar
II. Electricity sector in India
III. Playground for rooftop solar
IV. Development of solar – so far
V. Challenges & market requirements
Implemented by
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Challenges
28/10/2013
• Roofs are generally occupied
• Ownership structure is complicated
• Project debt financing is still developing
• High interest rates (12-14%)
• Insecurity in terms of building planning
• Land procurement is a tough task
• No strict quality assurance
• Price level / expectations are very low (e.g. SECI Tender EUR 1.02 / Wp)
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•Highly cost driven market – nothing gets sold if it does not make economic sense
•Robust equipments and good quality execution – considering Indian conditions
• Innovative products e.g. portable, plug and play systems
• Integration with Diesel generators/UPS systems
•Hybrid system – low grid availability
• Innovative economic/financial solutions
What is required in the Indian market?
28/10/2013
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Requirement for bidirectional invertersSource: PI Experts / GIZ, Comsolar
28.10.2013
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Frequent load shedding requires economic solution for:
Grid feeding / net metering ����
Off-grid / Island mode ����
Pure captive use ����
Back-up / DG integration ����
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Thank you!
[email protected] | [email protected]
ComSolar - Indo German Energy Programme
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH
GIZ Office New Delhi
www.giz.de - www.comsolar.in
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Seite 33
Annexures
28.10.2013
Seite 3428/10/2013
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Policy framework in India
Seite 35company presentation 201228/10/2013
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