Smart Ci)es|Smarter Ci)zens? -‐ Tim Jones | Vienna | 25 Nov 2014
Scope This a6ernoon, we will explore three different perspecAves of the evolving smart, digital, intelligent city, discuss some
implicaAons and also raise some quesAons for further debate.
Future Agenda 2010
Recent Developments
3 Future Challenges
World’s largest open foresight programme CollaboraAons and change since 2010 QuesAons for the next decade
Future Agenda 2010: The World in 2020
Future Agenda The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open foresight
program that looks at the big issues for the next decade so that organisaAons can bePer focus and sAmulate innovaAon.
Future Agenda view of the Future of Ci)es The first program in 2010 shared 50 insights on 2020 that
have been used widely. Of these, a number were specifically related to the changes taking place in our ciAes.
Imbalanced Popula)on Growth By 2020 we will add another 750m people to the planet, and mostly in places least able to accommodate them:
With a conAnued shi6 to urban living, we are stressing the system.
Developing World Mobility Next year 32 people an hour will be moving into Shanghai, 39 into Kinshasa and Jakarta, 42 into Mumbai and Karachi,
50 into Dhaka and 58 into Lagos.
Richer Poorer Widening differences in wealth between and within urban and rural
communiAes will conAnue to extend the gap between rich and poor -‐ but they will sAll need each other.
Energy Consump)on We know that Asian ciAes are more efficient than American ciAes: Los Angeles uses 25% of its GDP in moving people and goods.
In Hong Kong the corresponding figure is only 5%.
Dense Ci)es As urban migraAon increases, efficient, densely populated ciAes, not distributed opAons, are the
ideal benchmarks for more sustainable places to live.
Paris – The Role Model? For many, the blueprint for the sustainable, livable city
is Paris: Many urban planners and architects see this as a highly efficient and social urban model that is aPracAve to residents.
Ubiquitous Data Access We will be connected everywhere -‐ everything that can benefit from
a network connecAon will have one. 50 billion devices and a trillion sensors will be generaAng so much data that we are doubling capacity every month.
Intelligent Highways Mesh networks and ubiquitous mobile connecAons deliver the automated highways ambiAon and so improve safety,
increase capacity and reduce congesAon.
Intelligent buildings Smarter, bePer connected, self-‐monitoring homes and offices provide safer, more secure, low energy
buildings able to self-‐manage uAliAes.
Mega City States Increasing compeAAon between ciAes over-‐rides naAonal prioriAes as mayors lead bold iniAaAves to place their ciAes at the forefront of the global stage:
The C40 becomes more influenAal than the G20.
Recent Developments and Collabora)ons
Smart Cars Every vehicle has thousands of sensor-‐connected computers that collecAvely deliver the intelligent car that is able to
monitor itself, its environment and its passengers.
Autonomous Vehicles Led by urban delivery pods and long distance trucks, the rise of automaAcally driven vehicles leads to the
reinvenAon of the travel experience around infotainment.
From Cars To People We are seeing a shi6 of focus from ciAes designed for cars to ciAes
designed for people. The influence of GM, Ford and Exxon is giving way to a new group of authoritaAve bodies.
Amsterdam – People Centric Transport O6en seen as Europe’s most sustainable city, Amsterdam is the global leader in supporAng non-‐motorized transport. 70% of mobility in Amsterdam is either walking or cycling.
The Smart City Ideal Many see the perfect smart city to be one where renewable energy
systems, effecAve transport networks and digital infrastructures all align to create a super-‐efficient sustainable environment for everyone.
Global Drivers of Change In the past few years we have seen clear progress on the Smart CiAes ambiAon – much of which has been focused
on collaboraAon with some key mulAnaAonals.
IBM | Rio de Janeiro IBM’s Smarter CiAes / Smarter Planet iniAaAve has been embraced by mayors in many key ciAes: Massive sensor networks, cloud-‐based storage and predicAve analyAcs have all been coming to the fore.
Cisco | Songdo Songdo in Korea has embraced Cisco’s ‘Smart+Connected’ view of the city. Ubiquitous data sharing, automated buildings, high-‐speed networks and
pervasive interacAon are all part of the connected ideal.
Intel | San Jose Intel’s collaboraAon with the city of San Jose is a demonstrator of
the capability of the ‘Internet of Things’ focused on improving air quality, noise polluAon and traffic flows via a more connected infrastructure.
Siemens| Masdar Although behind schedule, Masdar is sAll aiming to be one of the most
sustainable, environmental and smart ciAes on the planet. Key partnerships with Siemens are focused on more effecAve, low energy systems.
Smarter Ci)zens A big quesAon however concerns how much ciAes can be intelligent in
themselves vs. enabling ciAzens to be more informed, take bePer decisions and so parAcipate more in the development and execuAon of key strategies.
Pervasive Smart Phones At the core, 1bn ‘always-‐connected’ smartphones and the associated high speed wireless networks are enabling a fundamental shi6 in
how personal data is generated, shared and used globally.
Predic)ve Analy)cs The mining and (re)combinaAon of mulAple disparate data sources to model and analyze current and historical facts is already enabling more
organisaAons to bePer anAcipate and share emergent needs.
Singapore – Urban Mobility With its populaAon doubling, Singapore sees mass transit as a core driver for a more effecAve city – By 2030, 80% of households will be within a 10
minute walk of a train staAon and 75% of journeys will be on public systems.
New York – Engaged Ci)zens As the pioneer in providing open connecAvity for all, New York has been a hot-‐spot for the development of ciAzen based networks: The Bryant Park RestoraAon CorporaAon was one of the first catalysts for change.
London – Open Data London has more open public data sets than any other European city. It is fast becoming a leading centre for more intelligent use of shared informaAon for greater collaboraAon and bePer decision making.
Christchurch – Sensing City Following the 2011 earthquake, Christchurch in New Zealand is taking advantage of an unprecedented opportunity to rethink the city and is
introducing integrated sensor networks to improve data sharing
Calgary – Flooding Liability Following the 2013 floods, the government in Calgary, Canada, gave
homeowners a one-‐off payment with the opAon to either rebuild or relocate. No future state help would be available.
Floa)ng Ci)es The ten most ‘at risk ciAes’ from climate change globally already have a combined populaAon of over 150m and are projected to have grown by a
further 50% by 2025 – Few, if any, will be insured.
Different Ci)es – Different Solu)ons In seeking new models, organisaAons such as Shell have recognised that global challenges require local soluAons -‐ but different city types can
also adopt similar approaches to improving efficiency.
Three Future Challenges | Ques)ons for Future Smart Ci)es
The world’s leading open foresight program
Informa)on vs. Ac)on How do we know that people will make bePer decisions when equipped
with more relevant informaAon? Calorie labeling in New York helped some but others used it to make unexpected, lower health decisions.
Owning Your Digital Shadow Increasing consumer awareness of the value of their digital footprints is driving the desire for greater control of personal data – so who will own the data we need to share to enable smarter ciAes and ciAzens?
Ci)zen-‐Led Change How can boPom-‐up ciAzen-‐iniAated change best align with the
major challenges we have to address around energy, water and food consumpAon in a world of less space and more waste?
“CiAes have the capability of providing something for everybody, only because, and only when, they are created by everybody.” Jane Jacobs -‐ The Death and Life of Great American Ci4es
Future Agenda 84 Brook Street London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 futureagenda.org [email protected]
The world’s leading open foresight program
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