SHEF FY 2014: Summary of Data and Findings April 30, 2015 Andy
Carlson, Senior Policy Analyst John Armstrong, Information
Analyst
Slide 2
Agenda Overview of SHEF project and changes made for FY 2014
report Findings What the data tell us at the national and state
levels Interactive data demonstration Q&A
Slide 3
Changes to the 2014 Report New design Case studies Interactive
data Surveyed SHEFOs, data providers, and policy community prior to
making changes
Slide 4
SHEF Metrics State and Local Support Educational Appropriations
Net Tuition Revenue Full-Time Equivalent Enrollment (FTE) Total
Educational Revenue Data adjusted for inflation, enrollment mix,
and cost of living differences among states Make up the Wave
Chart
Slide 5
SHEF Adjustments - HECA Higher Education Cost Adjustment (HECA)
To measure inflation over time, $s adjusted to current year SHEEO
developed as an alternative to CPI and HEPI as a means to account
for the market basket of goods higher education must purchase, that
is, primarily personnel costs Constructed from two existing federal
indices - the Employee Cost Index (75%) and GDP-Implicit Price
Deflator (25%) FY 2013 appropriation: $1000 Divide by corresponding
HECA: $1000/0.9824 FY 2013 appropriation in FY 2014 $s: $1018
Slide 6
HECA vs CPI - HECA Criticisms HECAs critics argue that HECA has
historically grown more quickly than CPI and therefore overstates
the amount of support institutions need in order to keep up with
inflation A further critique is that HECA is a meaningless figure
for families struggling to pay tuition costs HECA CPI
Slide 7
HECA vs. CPI - SHEEOs Response Higher educations primary costs
are driven by personnel expenditures which make up the bulk of the
higher education market basket of goods. SHEFs intent is to measure
trends in revenue for educational delivery. HECA is a reasonable
means to compare available revenue to necessary expenditures Little
difference between CPI and HECA since 2007, due to flat salaries.
Since 2010, CPI is growing faster than HECA CPI is a better measure
for tuition rate increases, which SHEF does not measure. SHEF
tracks changes in net tuition revenues
Slide 8
SHEF Adjustments EMI and COLA Enrollment Mix Index (EMI) To
adjust for differences in the mix of enrollment and costs among
types of institutions among the states Aggregated IPEDS data Cost
of Living Adjustment (COLA) To account for cost of living
differences among the states Derived from the 2003 Berry Index that
provides a single index for each state State X with $1000
educational appropriation Adjust by EMI: $1000/0.95 = $1053 Adjust
by EMI and COLA: $1053/1.01 = $1043
Slide 9
National Findings
Slide 10
Slide 11
Slide 12
Slide 13
Slide 14
State-level findings
Slide 15
Slide 16
Slide 17
Slide 18
Slide 19
What does the future hold? Is this recovery sustainable? States
still making cuts Pension challenges Oil dependent states
Structural issues Tax policy Goods v. services Amazon