Copyright 2019 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 1
SHADOWSTATS BULLET EDITION NUMBER FIVE
March 30, 2019
____________
Reporting-Quality Issues Mount With Shutdown Catch-Up Data
Fourth-Quarter 2018 GDP Growth Slowed Sharply, With
Further Downside Adjustments Pending in July 26th Benchmarking
Industrial Production Benchmark Revision Patterns Suggested
Still-Slower Fourth-Quarter and Near-Contraction First-Quarter Activity
Contracting First- and Second-Quarter 2019 GDP Activity Likely Follows
Housing Sector Remains In Deep Recession,
Despite Government-Shutdown Disrupted Headline Numbers
U.S. Economy Continues to Weaken More Sharply and Quickly
Than Widely Acknowledged, Signaling a Formal Recession Triggered by
Overly Aggressive FOMC Tightening and Rate Hikes of the Last Year or So
____________
Shadow Government Statistics — Bullet Edition No. 5 — March 30, 2019
Copyright 2019 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 2
____________
ShadowStats Commentaries, Bullet Editions, Watches and Daily Updates:
The Daily Update posts regularly on the ShadowStats home page (www.ShadowStats.com), covering major economic releases as published by the issuing authorities, usually within two-to-
three hours of headline publication. Unusual market circumstances, as well as the pending
ShadowStats publishing schedule also are reviewed there.
The Bullet Edition is published several times per month, as dictated by economic reporting, and underlying or unusual economic and financial-market developments. Simply put, the Bullet
Edition conveys brief communications and analyses on limited topics of particular near-term
significance.
o Today’s Bullet Edition reviews a large number of shutdown delayed, catch up economic releases of the last week, including February Housing Starts and New- and Existing-Home
Sales, the “Final” Estimate of Fourth-Quarter 2018 GDP, the January Trade Deficit, and
the March 27, 2019 Industrial Production Benchmark Revisions.
The more-comprehensive Regular Commentary should publish about once per month, providing a regular and broader overview of unfolding conditions and likely developments, occasionally in
the context of a Special Commentary.
o Pending Special Commentary No. 983-B, The Annual Review should post April 1st.
Hyperinflation and Consumer Liquidity Watches will update once per month, with alternating updates roughly every other week, resuming in April.
The ShadowStats general outlook has not changed, specifically including a deepening U.S. economic
downturn, mounting downside pressures on the U.S. dollar and stock market, and upside pressures
on gold and silver prices in the weeks and months ahead.
Your comments and suggestions always are invited.
Best Wishes — John Williams (707) 763-5786, [email protected]
_______________
http://www.shadowstats.com/mailto:[email protected]
Shadow Government Statistics — Bullet Edition No. 5 — March 30, 2019
Copyright 2019 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 3
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Contents – Bullet Edition No. 5
Reporting-Quality Issues Intensify Along With Catch Up in Shutdown-Delayed Numbers 5
Headline GDP Growth Slowed Sharply, Contraction Looms 5
Some Bumps and Bruises to Housing and Construction 5
Trade Deficit Does Some Unusual Gyrating 5
Industrial Production Benchmarking Indicated Some Negative GDP Pressures 5
Alternate Recession Cycle — 2018 Recession Is Underway 5
Table 1: Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Annual Detail (2015 to 2018) ............................................................................. 7
Graph 1: Annual Real GDP (1929 to “Final” 2018) ........................................................................................................... 8
Graph 2: Real Annual Real GDP Percent Change (1930 to “Final” 2018) .......................................................................... 8
Table 2: Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Quarterly Detail by Major Sector to “Final” Fourth-Quarter 2018..................... 9
Graph 3: Real GDP (1947 to “Final” Fourth-Quarter 2018) ............................................................................................ 10
Graph 4: Real GDP, Year-to-Year % Change (1948 to “Final” Headline Fourth-Quarter 2018) ....................................... 10
Graph 5: Real GDP (2000 to “Final” Fourth-Quarter 2018) ............................................................................................ 11
Graph 6: Real GDP, Year-to-Year % Change (2000 to “Final” Headline Fourth-Quarter 2018) ....................................... 11
Graph 7: Real Gross Domestic Private Residential Investment to “Final” Fourth-Quarter 2018 GDP .............................. 12
Graph 8: Real Gross Domestic Residential Investment (Year-to-Year) ............................................................................... 12
Graph 9: Real Net Exports of Goods and Services in GDP (1q1994 to “Final” Fourth-Quarter 2018)............................... 13
Graph 10: Real U.S. Merchandise Trade Deficit (First-Quarter 1994 to Latest Fourth-Quarter 2018) ............................... 13
Underlying Economic Reality – Alternate Real GDP Using Corrected Inflation 15
Graph 11: Corrected-Inflation Based GDP (1970 to “Final” Fourth-Quarter 2018) ......................................................... 15
Graph 12: Corrected-Inflation Based GDP, Yr-to-Yr % Change (1970 to “Final” Fourth-Quarter 2018) .......................... 15
Graph 13: Corrected-Inflation Based GDP (2000 to “Final” Fourth-Quarter 2018) ......................................................... 16
Graph 14: Corrected-Inflation Based GDP, Yr-to-Yr % Change (2000 to “Final” Fourth-Quarter 2018) .......................... 16
The Housing and Construction Sector 17
Graph 15: Existing-Home Sales, National Association of Realtors, Monthly Rate (2000 to Date) ....................................... 18
Graph 16: Existing-Home Sales, Six-Month Moving Average (2000 to Date) ..................................................................... 18
Graph 17: New-Home Sales, Monthly Rate (2000 to Date) ................................................................................................ 19
Graph 18: New-Home Sales, Six-Month Moving Average (2000 to Date) ........................................................................... 19
Shadow Government Statistics — Bullet Edition No. 5 — March 30, 2019
Copyright 2019 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 4
Graph 19: Building Permits, Annual Rate by Month (2000 to Date)................................................................................... 20
Graph 20: Building Permits, Six-Month Moving Average (2000 to Date) ........................................................................... 20
Graph 21: Housing Starts, Annual Rate by Month (2000 to Date) ...................................................................................... 21
Graph 22: Housing Starts, Six-Month Moving Average (2000 to Date) .............................................................................. 21
Graph 23: Single- and Multiple-Unit, Monthly Rate (2000 to Date) ................................................................................... 22
Graph 24: Single- and Multiple-Unit, Six-Month Moving Average (2000 to Date).............................................................. 22
Graph 25: Housing Starts, Annual Rate by Month (1946 to Date) ...................................................................................... 23
Graph 26: Housing Starts, Annual Rate, Six-Month Moving Average (1946 to Date) ......................................................... 23
Industrial Production Annual Benchmark Revisions 24
Graph 27: Benchmark Revised Capacity Utilization (2000 to Date) ................................................................................... 24
Graph 28: Benchmark Revised Industrial Production (2000 to Date)................................................................................. 25
Graph 29: Benchmark Revised Manufacturing, 75.0% of 2018 Industrial Production (2000-to-Date) ................................ 25
Graph 30: Benchmark Revised Mining, 14.6% of 2018 Industrial Production (2000-to-Date) ............................................ 26
Graph 31: Benchmark Revised Utilities, 10.4% of 2018 Industrial Production (2000 to Date) ........................................... 26
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Shadow Government Statistics — Bullet Edition No. 5 — March 30, 2019
Copyright 2019 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 5
Reporting-Quality Issues Intensify Along With Catch Up in Shutdown-Delayed Numbers
Headline GDP Growth Slowed Sharply, Contraction Looms
Some Bumps and Bruises to Housing and Construction
Trade Deficit Does Some Unusual Gyrating
Industrial Production Benchmarking Indicated Some Negative GDP Pressures
Alternate Recession Cycle — 2018 Recession Is Underway
Shutdown-Disrupted Government Economic Reports Largely Will Be ―Caught Up‖ in April, With
Reporting Detail Beginning to Approach Standard Quality by the End of May. The late-December
to late-January government shutdown shuttered most of the economic surveying and reporting by the
Commerce Department. That considered, the Census Bureau (Census) and Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA) have done a remarkable job getting regular surveying caught up and back online. Nonetheless,
disruptions to surveying conditions and reporting distortions were and to be expected and have been noted
in the reporting of some of the related data, with unusual volatility and patterns of activity seen in detail
ranging from retail sales and housing and construction to the trade balance and GDP.
Headline reporting should be close to caught up, with the April 17th release of the February Trade Deficit,
but consistent and standard-quality data reporting likely will not be back in place until mid-year, with the
annual GDP benchmarking on July 26th, and subsequent, subsidiary series benchmarkings into early 2020
eventually moving headline details in line with something approximating underlying reality.
Where the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was not shuttered, reporting of the regular labor-market and
headline inflation details continued, although labor-market conditions and reporting still were disrupted
by the large number of government workers furloughed or working without pay, and acknowledged
inconsistent reporting of same. The Federal Reserve Board (FRB) was independent of the shutdown, but
even some of their data were affected, such as Industrial Production, where part of the FRB surveying
relies on some Census Bureau detail.
Today’s Bullet Edition covers a spate of catch up reporting in the last week tied to housing and
construction, the trade deficit and a far-from “Final” or complete reporting of fourth-quarter GDP, plus
the Federal Reserve Board’s Annual Benchmark Revisions to Industrial Production.
Shadow Government Statistics — Bullet Edition No. 5 — March 30, 2019
Copyright 2019 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 6
Coverage here begins with the broadest measure, the headline GDP, which expands naturally into the
Trade Deficit and to the Housing and Construction numbers. Beyond other ShadowStats assessments,
headline GDP also faces likely weakness in pending revision and in near-term reporting, based on the
just-released Industrial Production Benchmarking.
New Recession Begins to Unfold. Elements of the discussion here are expanded in Special Commentary
No. 983-B, which will be published in the next couple of days. U.S. economic activity has slowed sharply
and now appears to be contracting. The broad economy likely has entered recession, reflected in the
sharp (and still under-reported) slowing of activity in fourth-quarter 2018 GDP, with outright back-to-
back quarterly contractions likely in both first- and second-quarter 2019. The excessive rate hikes and
tightening liquidity of the last year or so by the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee
(FOMC) were the proximal trigger of the current downturn. Impaired consumer liquidity has pummeled
areas ranging from Retail Sales to the Housing market. The Underlying Economic Reality section
(Graphs 11 to 14) showing the Alternate Real GDP, will be discussed and reviewed fully in No. 983-B.
―Final‖ Fourth-Quarter 2018 GDP Slowed to a Near-Consensus 2.17% (Previously 2.59%), down
from a Third-Quarter 3.36%, with GDI slowing to 1.66% from 4.56%, GNP to 2.12% from 3.05%.
Well shy of having its normal complement or quality of underlying data, what was set as an “Initial”
(combined first and second) estimate of Fourth-Quarter 2018 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on February
28th, was revised and released as a “Final” estimate on March 28th, by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA). Neither the initial nor the final guesstimate was based on the regular quality or as well-seasoned
detail, as usually would be the case, due to recent data disruptions from the partial shutdown of the U.S.
government. Accordingly, the regularly scheduled annual GDP benchmark revisions of July 26th not
only are likely to see some sharp downside revisions to the current headline fourth-quarter GDP detail
and related series, but also headline quarterly contractions in both first- and second-quarter 2019 GDP.
Released along with the final fourth-quarter GDP were the “Final” (combined initial and final) estimates
of Fourth-Quarter 2018 Gross Domestic Income (GDI), which is the theoretical income-side “equivalent”
to the consumption-side GDP, and the Gross National Product (GNP), which is the broadest economic
measure, reflecting the GDP plus the trade balance in factor income (interest and dividends).
Targeting the Consensus Outlook? The downside “final” revision of real fourth-quarter GDP to 2.17%,
from an “initial” (a roughly combined first and second) estimate of 2.59% (2.6% initial old Consensus),
was in line with market expectations (2.2% latest Consensus), slowing from 3.36% in third-quarter 2018.
Fourth-quarter 2018 annual growth revised to 2.97% (previously 3.08%) versus 3.00% in third-quarter
2018. Where the BEA knew it was working with raw data of less-than-usual quality, it would not be
unusual for the Bureau to target the Consensus outlook for its headline reporting. Some years back I was
advised by the BEA that they viewed the consensus outlook as good indicator of underlying activity.
The coincident “Initial and Final” estimates of fourth-quarter 2018 GDI and GNP also slowed sharply
versus third-quarter activity. Annualized fourth-quarter GDI growth slowed to 1.66%, from 4.56% in the
third-quarter, with annual growth at 2.74% versus 2.69%. Fourth-quarter GNP slowed to an annualized
2.12%, from 3.05% in the third-quarter, with annual growth slowing to 2.85% versus 2.96%. Extended
details follow with Table I and Table II, along with the usual, related Graphs 1 to 14.
Shadow Government Statistics — Bullet Edition No. 5 — March 30, 2019
Copyright 2019 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 7
Please note the intensifying negative impact on the headline GDP growth from deteriorating Residential
Investment (see Table II and Graphs 7 and 8), with follow-up detail in the Housing and Construction
Sector (page 17). Discussion as to the headline March 27th release of the January 2019 Merchandise
Trade Deficit accompanies Graphs 9 and 10 on page 13.
Table 1: Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Annual Detail (2015 to 2018)
GDP 2015 2016 2017 2018
COMPONENTS
CONTRIBUTING ECONOMIC SECTOR
Personal Consumption Expenditures
- Goods 1.02% 0.77% 0.78% 0.78%
-- Motor Vehicles 0.18% 0.08% 0.11% 0.06%
- Services 1.48% 1.09% 0.95% 1.01%
Gross Private Domestic Investment
- Fixed Investment 0.57% 0.29% 0.81% 0.90%
-- Residential 0.33% 0.23% 0.13% -0.01%
- Change in Private Inventories 0.25% -0.53% 0.00% 0.12%
Net Exports of Goods and Services -0.78% -0.30% -0.31% -0.21%
Government Consumption/Investment 0.33% 0.25% -0.01% 0.26%
GDP ANNUAL REAL GROWTH 2.88% 1.57% 2.22% 2.86%
Final Sales, GDP Less Inventories 2.63% 2.10% 2.22% 2.74%
CONTRIBUTING PRODUCT SECTOR
Goods 0.88% 0.35% 1.11% 1.49%
Services 1.71% 1.13% 0.92% 1.20%
Structures 0.29% 0.08% 0.19% 0.17%
GDP Annual Real Growth 2.88% 1.57% 2.22% 2.86%
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 2.88% 1.57% 2.22% 2.86%
Gross Domestic Income (GDI) 2.57% 0.85% 2.27% 2.64%
Gross National Product (GNP) 2.76% 1.47% 2.33% 2.91%
ShadowStats Corrected-Inflation GDP* 0.80% -0.49% 0.15% 0.78%
Implicit Price Deflator (IPD) Inflation 1.07% 1.09% 1.90% 2.25%
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), www.ShadowStats.com (ShadowStats).
*Real GDP corrected for understated inflation (see Special Commentary No. 968-Extended)
See Graphs 11 to 14 with standard headline GDP reflected in Graphs 1 to 10 .
Full Year Annual Real GDP Growth (2015 to 2018)
Final Estimate of Full-Year 2018 GDP and Earlier Headline Data
Annual Growth Contribution by Consumption and Product Sector
SUPPLEMENTAL
Annual Real GDP Change and Headline Implicit Price Deflator Inflation
Shadow Government Statistics — Bullet Edition No. 5 — March 30, 2019
Copyright 2019 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 8
Graph 1: Annual Real GDP (1929 to “Final” 2018)
Graph 2: Real Annual Real GDP Percent Change (1930 to “Final” 2018)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
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Annual Real Gross Domestic Product
Level in Billions of 2012 Dollars, 1929 to 2018 [ShadowStats, BEA]
-15%
-10%
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0%
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Annual Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)DP Percent Change, 1930 to 2018 [ShadowStats, BEA]
Shadow Government Statistics — Bullet Edition No. 5 — March 30, 2019
Copyright 2019 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 9
Table 2: Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Quarterly Detail by Major Sector to “Final” Fourth-Quarter 2018
4th-Q 1st-Q 2nd-Q 3rd-Q 4th-Q 4th-Q
GDP 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018
COMPONENTS Final Final Final Final "Initial" "Final"
Estimate Estimate
CONTRIBUTING ECONOMIC SECTOR
Personal Consumption Expenditures
- Goods 1.42% -0.13% 1.16% 0.90% 0.80% 0.54%
-- Motor Vehicles 0.40% -0.35% 0.16% -0.05% 0.22% 0.20%
- Services 1.22% 0.49% 1.42% 1.47% 1.11% 1.12%
Gross Private Domestic Investment
- Fixed Investment 1.04% 1.34% 1.10% 0.21% 0.69% 0.54%
-- Residential 0.41% -0.14% -0.05% -0.14% -0.14% -0.18%
- Change in Private Inventories -0.91% 0.27% -1.17% 2.33% 0.13% 0.11%
Net Exports of Goods and Services -0.89% -0.02% 1.22% -1.99% -0.22% -0.08%
Government Consumption/Investment 0.41% 0.27% 0.43% 0.44% 0.07% -0.07%
GDP ANNUALIZED REAL GROWTH 2.29% 2.22% 4.16% 3.36% 2.59% 2.17%
Final Sales, GDP Less Inventories 3.20% 1.95% 5.33% 1.03% 2.46% 2.06%
CONTRIBUTING PRODUCT SECTOR
Goods 0.34% 1.20% 1.91% 1.76% 1.93% 1.66%
Services 1.32% 0.73% 1.78% 1.77% 1.01% 0.99%
Structures 0.64% 0.28% 0.47% -0.17% -0.35% -0.48%
GDP Annualized Real Growth 2.29% 2.22% 4.16% 3.36% 2.59% 2.17%
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 2.29% 2.22% 4.16% 3.36% 2.59% 2.17%
Gross Domestic Income (GDI) 1.49% 3.90% 0.87% 4.56% -- 1.66%
Gross National Product (GNP) 2.57% 2.20% 4.04% 3.05% -- 2.12%
ShadowStats Corrected-Inflation GDP* 0.22% 0.15% 2.05% 1.27% 0.51% 0.10%
Implicit Price Deflator (IPD) Inflation 2.72% 2.02% 3.31% 1.51% 1.95% 1.86%
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 2.47% 2.58% 2.87% 3.00% 3.08% 2.97%
Gross Domestic Income (GDI) 2.25% 2.36% 1.88% 2.69% -- 2.74%
Gross National Product (GNP) 2.56% 2.73% 3.09% 2.96% -- 2.85%
ShadowStats Corrected-Inflation GDP* 0.40% 0.51% 0.79% 0.92% 0.99% 0.89%
Implicit Price Deflator (IPD) Inflation 1.97% 1.95% 2.50% 2.39% 2.20% 2.17%
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), www.ShadowStats.com (ShadowStats).
*Real GDP corrected for understated headline inflation (see Special Commentary No. 968-Extended , and
Graphs 11 to 14 here). Standard headline GDP is reflected in Graphs 1 to 10.
Annualized Quarterly Real Growth in Headline Gross Domestic Product
Final Estimate of Fourth-Quarter 2018 GDP and Earlier Headline Data
Growth Contribution by Consumption and Product Sector
SUPPLEMENTAL
Annualized Quarter-to-Quarter Real GDP Change and Headline Implicit Price Deflator Inflation
Year-to-Year Real GDP Change and Headline Implicit Price Deflator Inflation
Shadow Government Statistics — Bullet Edition No. 5 — March 30, 2019
Copyright 2019 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 10
Graph 3: Real GDP (1947 to “Final” Fourth-Quarter 2018)
Graph 4: Real GDP, Year-to-Year % Change (1948 to “Final” Fourth-Quarter 2018)
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1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
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Real Gross Domestic Product Quarterly in Billions of 2012 Dollars
1947 to "Final" 4q2018, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, BEA]
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1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
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Real Gross Domestic Product Year-to-Year Percent Change by Quarter
1948 to "Final" 4q2018, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, BEA]
Shadow Government Statistics — Bullet Edition No. 5 — March 30, 2019
Copyright 2019 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 11
Graph 5: Real GDP (2000 to “Final” Fourth-Quarter 2018)
Graph 6: Real GDP, Year-to-Year % Change (2000 to “Final” Fourth-Quarter 2018)
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Real Gross Domestic Product Quarterly in Billions of 2012 Dollars
2000 to "Final" 4q2018, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, BEA]
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Quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product Year-to-Year Change, 1q2000 to "Final" 4q2018 [ShadowStats, BEA]
Shadow Government Statistics — Bullet Edition No. 5 — March 30, 2019
Copyright 2019 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 12
Also See Graphs 15 to 26 in the Housing and Construction Section
Graph 7: Real Gross Domestic Private Residential Investment to “Final” Fourth-Quarter 2018 GDP
Graph 8: Real Gross Domestic Residential Investment (Year-to-Year)
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GDP Gross Private Domestic Investment - Residential Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars
To "Final" Fourth-Quarter 2018, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, BEA]
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GDP Gross Private Domestic Investment - Residential Real Year-to-Year Change, 1q2003 to "Final" 4q2018 [ShadowStats, BEA]
Shadow Government Statistics — Bullet Edition No. 5 — March 30, 2019
Copyright 2019 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 13
Graph 9: Real Net Exports of Goods and Services in GDP (1q1994 to “Final” Fourth-Quarter 2018)
Graph 10: Real U.S. Merchandise Trade Deficit (First-Quarter 1994 to Latest Fourth-Quarter 2018)
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U.S. Net Exports of Goods and Services (GDP Accounting)
Quarterly Deficit at Annual Rate (1q1994 to "Final" 4q2018) Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, BEA]
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Real U.S. Merchandise Trade Deficit (Census Basis) Quarterly Deficit at Annual Rate, 1994 to 4q2018
Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, Census]
Shadow Government Statistics — Bullet Edition No. 5 — March 30, 2019
Copyright 2019 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 14
January 2019 Trade Deficit Narrowed Sharply in a Third Consecutive Wild Monthly Swing.
Against a minimally revised deepening, in the sharply deteriorating Fourth-Quarter 2018 Real
Merchandise Trade Deficit (see preceding Graphs 9 and 10), the January 2019 Trade Deficit narrowed
sharply, in continuing wild monthly swings, reported by Census and the BEA on March 27th. A sharp
decline in imports, and a small increase in exports, narrowed the nominal January trade deficit to $51.1
billion, from a revised, deepened $59.9 billion in December, versus $50.5 billion in November and $56.5
billion in October. The fourth-quarter trade shortfall remained the worst in U.S. history, and a factor in
the slowing of fourth-quarter GDP growth. January’s narrowed deficit is a relative positive for first-
quarter 2019 economic activity, but one could expect the February data to swing back sharply to a deeper
deficit, closer to the norm (note the October-November-December pattern above). Not discussed by the
Census Bureau/Bureau of Economic Analysis, data-flow disruptions from the government shutdown
likely are factor in this unusual, recent increase in reporting volatility. Census/BEA still are one month
behind in their key, monthly trade reporting.
[Underlying Economic Reality – Alternate GDP Using Corrected Inflation begins on the next page.]
Shadow Government Statistics — Bullet Edition No. 5 — March 30, 2019
Copyright 2019 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 15
Underlying Economic Reality – Alternate Real GDP Using Corrected Inflation The plots in Graphs 11 to 14 reflect GDP deflated by the Implicit Price Deflator corrected for understated annual
inflation. Full detail and review follow in No. 983-B; background available at Special Commentary No. 968-Extended.
Graph 11: Corrected-Inflation Based GDP (1970 to “Final” Fourth-Quarter 2018)
Graph 12: Corrected-Inflation Based GDP, Yr-to-Yr % Change (1970 to “Final” Fourth-Quarter 2018)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
10 0
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Billio
ns o
f "C
orr
ecte
d" 2
012 D
ollars
Corrected Real Gross Domestic Product Nominal GDP Deflated by Implicit Price Deflator Adjusted for
Understatement of Annual Inflation To "Final" 4q2018, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, BEA]
Formal Recession
ShadowStats Recession
Corrected GDP
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
10 0
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year-
to-Y
ear
Perc
en
t C
han
ge
Corrected Real Gross Domestic Product Adjusted for Understatement of Annual Inflation
Year-to-Year Percent Change To "Final" 4q2018, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, BEA]
Formal Recession
ShadowStats Recession
Corrected GDP
http://www.shadowstats.com/article/c968b
Shadow Government Statistics — Bullet Edition No. 5 — March 30, 2019
Copyright 2019 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 16
Graph 13: Corrected-Inflation Based GDP (2000 to “Final” Fourth-Quarter 2018)
Graph 14: Corrected-Inflation Based GDP, Yr-to-Yr % Change (2000 to “Final” Fourth-Quarter 2018)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
10 0
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Ind
ex L
ev
el, 1
q2000 =
100
Corrected-Inflation Real Gross Domestic Product Nominal GDP Deflated by Implicit Price Deflator Corrected for
Roughly Two-Percentage Point Understatement of Annual Inflation To "Final" 4q2018, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, BEA]
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
10 0
-7.0%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Year-
to-Y
ear
Ch
an
ge
Corrected Gross Domestic Product, Yr-to-Yr Percent Change 2000 to "Final" 4q2018, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, BEA]
Shadow Government Statistics — Bullet Edition No. 5 — March 30, 2019
Copyright 2019 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 17
The Housing and Construction Sector
Home Sales and New Residential Construction Continued in Recession, Despite Some Recent
Volatility and Mixed Reporting. February 2019 Existing-Home Sales Growth Jumped 11.8% in the
month, but declined 1.8% (-1.8%) year-to-year, as reported by the National Association of Realtors on
March 22nd (see details and press release at www.nar.realtor under research/housing statistics). Reflected
in Graphs 15 and 16, following a string of sharp declines, and on top of a small downside revision to
January activity, February New-Home Sales rebounded by 11.8%, the strongest monthly gain in more
than three years. That said, monthly sales were down year-to-year by 1.8% (-1.8%). The series continued
in a deepening year-to-year contraction in the trailing twelve-month moving average of the series, where
February 2019, dropped to a new low of 4.2% (-4.2%), its tenth consecutive and continuously deepening
annual rate of decline. February 2019 sales activity remained 24.2% (-24.2%) shy of every recovering its
pre-recession high.
February and Revised January 2019 New-Home Sales Surged in the Month, Amidst Absurdly Negative
Revisions. The government-shutdown delayed/disrupted March 29th New-Home Sales reporting out of
the Census Bureau, showed statistically insignificant, February 2019 respective monthly and annual gains
of 4.9% and 0.6%, on top of sharp upside revisions to January 2019 activity (see Graphs 17 and 18). Yet,
those numbers followed extraordinarily sharp downside revisions to fourth-quarter 2018 activity.
What had been a fourth-quarter 2018 annualized gain of 3.6% revised to an annualized contraction of
13.4% (-13.4%). What had been an early negative trend for first-quarter 2019 New-Home Sales turned
positive. Consistent with other housing and construction series, New-Home Sales remains in an ongoing
housing recession, holding shy by 52.0% (-52.0%) of ever recovering its pre-recession peak
February 2019 Housing Starts Destabilized by Government Shutdown Data Disruptions, Continued in
Deepening Annual Decline and Downtrend. The broad picture for February Housing Starts and
Building Permits remained highly negative, but of unusually poor quality for initial monthly reporting of
this highly unstable and shutdown-delayed series (see Graphs 19 to 26). Reported March 26th by the
Census Bureau, both Starts and Permits saw monthly and annual contractions, in deepening long-term
downtrends. That said, the previously reported level of Starts revised higher. Accompanying what
standardly would be nonsensical volatility in the headline Housing Starts, the Commerce Department
warned of government-shutdown delayed data collection and processing, which “... caused the
adjustments for anticipated late reported December starts and completions to be less accurate than normal,
resulting in larger than normal revisions.”
That said, headline February 2019 month-to-month Housing Starts declined 8.7% (-8.7%), following a
revised January gain of 11.7% [previously 18.6%] and a revised December decline of 5.5% (-5.5%)
[previously 14.0% (-14.0%)]. More telling, year-to-year February 2019 Starts declined 9.9% (-9.9%),
following revised annual declines of 4.6% (-4.6%) [previously 7.8% (-7.8%)] in January 2019, and 5.8%
(-5.8%) [previously 14.3% (-14.3%) in December 2018.
Where the aggregate February Starts dropped 8.7% (-8.7%) in the month, that reflected a plunge of 17.0%
(-17.0%) in Single Units and a 23.5% surge in Multiple Units. The aggregate annual decline of 9.9%
(-9.9%) was composed of drops of 10.6% (-10.6%) in Single Units and 5.4% (-5.4%) in Multiple Units of
Shadow Government Statistics — Bullet Edition No. 5 — March 30, 2019
Copyright 2019 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 18
5 Units or More. As usual, none of those monthly or annual changes was deemed statistically meaningful
by Census, except for the 17.0% (-17.0%) monthly plunge in Single Units. (Continues on page 20 ...)
Graph 15: Existing-Home Sales, National Association of Realtors, Monthly Rate (2000 to Date)
Graph 16: Existing-Home Sales, Six-Month Moving Average (2000 to Date)
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
275
325
375
425
475
525
575
625
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Th
ou
san
ds o
f U
nit
s p
er
Mo
nth
Existing-Home Sales (Monthly Rate) Single- and Multiple-Unit Sales, Non-Annualized Monthly Level
To February 2019, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, NAR, HUD]
Original Series
NAR-Corrected Series
Average Mar '09 to Dec '11
The Mar '09 to Dec '11 average
smooths out monthly volatility tied to tax-break and homebuyer-incentive periods.
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
275
325
375
425
475
525
575
625
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Th
ou
san
ds o
f U
nit
s p
er
Mo
nth
Existing-Home Sales (Six-Month Moving Average) Single- and Multiple-Unit Sales, Non-Annualized Monthly Rate
To February 2019, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, NAR, HUD]
Shadow Government Statistics — Bullet Edition No. 5 — March 30, 2019
Copyright 2019 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 19
Graph 17: New-Home Sales, Monthly Rate (2000 to Date)
Graph 18: New-Home Sales, Six-Month Moving Average (2000 to Date)
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Th
ou
san
ds o
f U
nit
s
New-Home Sales (Monthly Rate) To February 2019, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, Census and HUD]
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Th
ou
san
ds o
f U
nit
s
New-Home Sales (Six-Month Moving Average) To February 2019, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, Census and HUD]
Shadow Government Statistics — Bullet Edition No. 5 — March 30, 2019
Copyright 2019 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 20
Graph 19: Building Permits, Annual Rate by Month (2000 to Date)
Graph 20: Building Permits, Six-Month Moving Average (2000 to Date)
(... Continued from page 18 ) More-stable February 2019 Building Permits showed statistically
significant, monthly and annual declines of 1.6% (-1.6%) and 2.0% (-2.0%), with January Permits down
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Millio
ns o
f U
nit
s
Building Permits for Housing Units (Annual Rate by Month) To February 2019, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, Census and HUD]
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
An
nu
al
Rate
in
Millio
ns o
f U
nit
s
Building Permits for Housing Units (Six-Month Moving Average) To February 2019 Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, Census and HUD]
Shadow Government Statistics — Bullet Edition No. 5 — March 30, 2019
Copyright 2019 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 21
month-to-month by a revised 0.7% (-0.7%) [previously up by 1.4%], down year-to-year by 3.6% (-3.6%)
[previously 1.5% (-1.5%)]. February 2019 Housing Starts remained shy by 48.9% (-48.9%) and Building
Permits shy by 42.7% (-42.7%) of ever recovering their levels of pre-recession peak activity.
Graph 21: Housing Starts, Annual Rate by Month (2000 to Date)
Graph 22: Housing Starts, Six-Month Moving Average (2000 to Date)
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Millio
ns o
f U
nit
s
Housing Starts (Annual Rate by Month) To February 2019, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, Census and HUD]
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
An
nu
al
Sale
s R
ate
of
Millio
ns o
f U
nit
s
Aggregate Housing Starts (Six-Month Moving Average) To February 2019, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, Census and HUD]
Shadow Government Statistics — Bullet Edition No. 5 — March 30, 2019
Copyright 2019 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 22
Graph 23: Single- and Multiple-Unit, Monthly Rate (2000 to Date)
Graph 24: Single- and Multiple-Unit, Six-Month Moving Average (2000 to Date)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Th
ou
san
ds o
f U
nit
s
Single- and Multiple-Unit Housing Starts (Monthly Rate) To February 2019, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, Census and HUD]
Multiple-Unit Starts
Single-Unit Starts
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Th
ou
san
ds o
f U
nit
s
Single- and Multiple-Unit Starts (6-Month Moving Average) To February 2019, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, Census and HUD]
Multiple-Unit Starts
Single-Unit Starts
Shadow Government Statistics — Bullet Edition No. 5 — March 30, 2019
Copyright 2019 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 23
Graph 25: Housing Starts, Annual Rate by Month (1946 to Date)
Graph 26: Housing Starts, Annual Rate, Six-Month Moving Average (1946 to Date)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Millio
ns o
f U
nit
s
Housing Starts (Annual Rate by Month) 1946 to February 2019, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, Census and HUD]
Official Recession
Nonfarm Housing Starts (1946-1969)
Housing Starts (1959 to Date)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Millio
ns o
f U
nit
s
Housing Starts (Annual Rate by Month, 6-Month Moving Avg) 1946 to February 2019, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, Census and HUD]
Official Recession
Nonfarm Housing Starts (1946-1969)
Housing Starts (1959 to Date)
Shadow Government Statistics — Bullet Edition No. 5 — March 30, 2019
Copyright 2019 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 24
Industrial Production Annual Benchmark Revisions
Industrial Production Annual Revisions Notched Higher—Major Manufacturing Sector Revisions
Were Missing, Yet, Recent Quarterly Data Showed Slower/Slowing Annualized Quarterly Activity.
Slowing quarterly growth in production revisions signaled weakening GDP activity. The annual
Industrial Production Benchmark Revision was published March 27th.
Graph 27: Benchmark Revised Capacity Utilization (2000 to Date)
Discussed in Bullet Edition No. 3, what appears to be a missing headline recession in 2014/2015 never
surfaced because major, belated benchmark revisions showing the downturn did not surface until
2017/2018, as will be fully discussed and reviewed in Special Commentary No. 983-B. Graph 27 shows
that speculative updated plot of the Alternate Recession, incorporating the just-published (March 27th)
benchmarking of Capacity Utilization. While Graphs 28 to 31 plot the benchmark-revised aggregate
Industrial Production series and its Manufacturing, Mining and Utilities components, the important one
for GDP revisions is Graph 28. Standard Manufacturing benchmarking (almost always sharply negative)
for 2018/2019 was not available this time around, thanks to a budget issues at the Census Bureau.
What the revisions reflect is fourth-quarter 2018 Industrial Production slowing from an annualized growth
rate of 4.0% to 3.7% in revision, consistent with a downside revision in fourth-quarter 2018 GDP. Based
on two months of reporting, however, first-quarter 2019 production also is on track to slow sharply, to an
annualized 0.6%, which easily could fall into quarterly contraction in the next round of reporting.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Perc
en
t o
f T
ota
l U
.S.
Ind
ustr
ial
Cap
acit
y U
tilized
Capacity Utilization: Total U.S. Industry to February 2019 Benchmarked With An Alternate Recession Definition Percent of Capacity, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, FRB]
Alternate Definition and Prospective Recession
Prior Capacity Utilization
Capacity Utilization
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/g17rev.pdfhttp://www.shadowstats.com/article/cSBE3
Shadow Government Statistics — Bullet Edition No. 5 — March 30, 2019
Copyright 2019 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 25
Graph 28: Benchmark Revised Industrial Production (2000 to Date)
Graph 29: Benchmark Revised Manufacturing, 75.0% of 2018 Industrial Production (2000-to-Date)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
84
88
92
96
100
104
108
112
116
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Ind
ex L
ev
el, 2
012 =
100
Benchmarked Index of Industrial Production (2012 = 100) Level to February 2019, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, FRB]
Official Recession
Prior Industrial Production
Industrial Production
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
84
88
92
96
100
104
108
112
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Ind
ex L
ev
el, 2
012 =
100
Benchmarked Production - Manufacturing (SIC) (2012 = 100) Level to February 2019, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, FRB]
Official Recession
Prior Manufacturing
Manufacturing
Shadow Government Statistics — Bullet Edition No. 5 — March 30, 2019
Copyright 2019 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 26
Graph 30: Benchmark Revised Mining, 14.6% of 2018 Industrial Production (2000-to-Date)
Graph 31: Benchmark Revised Utilities, 10.4% of 2018 Industrial Production (2000 to Date)
# # #
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Ind
ex L
ev
el, 2
012 =
100
Benchmarked Production - Mining (Including Oil & Gas) To February 2019, (2012 = 100) Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, FRB]
Official Recession
Prior Mining
Mining
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Ind
ex L
ev
el, 2
012 =
100
Benchmarked Industrial Production - Utilities (2012 = 100) Level to February 2019, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, FRB]
Official Recession
Prior Utilities
Utilities
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