HEATHER LYNN AFFORDADVISER: DR. PATRICK N. HALPIN
Photo courtesy of Ron Wooten
Sea Turtle Nest Site Selection AnalysisFlorida Panhandle
2015 Nesting Season Results
Why do sea turtles nest where they nest?
oCollect multiple variables and data points for analysis
oUnderstand turtle nest distribution
oPredict Site Selection LocationsoDetermine variables relationship to site selection spatially
oTree ClassificationoDetermine variables in terms of importance to site selection
Data collection of nests and important variables
Why do sea turtles nest where they nest?
oCollect multiple variables and data points for analysis
oUnderstand turtle nest distribution
oPredict Site Selection LocationsoDetermine variables relationship to site selection spatially
oTree ClassificationoDetermine variables in terms of importance to site selection
Nesting Population Distribution
Why do sea turtles nest where they nest?
oCollect multiple variables and data points for analysis
oUnderstand turtle nest distribution
oPredict Site Selection LocationsoDetermine variables relationship to site selection spatially
oTree ClassificationoDetermine variable importance in terms of site selection
Random Points (0)
Sand OtherThan Beaches
East Pass ‐ EbbShoal
Offshore andStorm
Overwash
Slope ofBathymetry Bathymetry Distance to
High TideDistance to
RoadDistance toUrban Areas Population Elevation
Beaches OtherThan
SwimmingBeaches
Estimate ‐1.92943 ‐0.92846 ‐0.86005 ‐0.42013 ‐0.1543 ‐0.00982 ‐0.00197 ‐0.00035 0.003499 0.581822 2.915048
‐3
‐2
‐1
0
1
2
3
4
ESTIMAT
E OF AS
SOCIAT
ION
CHARACTERISTIC TYPE & SPECIFIC ASSOCIATION
Significant Characteristics and their Associations with Sea Turtle Nest Site Selection : Presence ‐ Random Model
Final Model Equation:
species ~ Distance to High Tide + Distance to Closest Urban Type + Land Cover Type + Distance to Closest Road +
Population Abundance+ Nourishment Source + Elevation + Bathymetry + Slope of Approach
Sea Turtle Site SelectionPrediction
Sea Turtle Site SelectionPrediction Probabilities:Full Area
Selected Probabilities of Sea Turtle Site Selection
Why do sea turtles nest where they nest?
oCollect multiple variables and data points for analysis
oUnderstand turtle nest distribution
oPredict Site Selection LocationsoDetermine variables relationship to site selection spatially
oTree ClassificationoDetermine variables in terms of importance to site selection
Predicted Random Predicted Nest
Observed Random 214 (True Negative) 71 (False Positive)
Observed Nest 8 (False Negative) 277 (True Positive)
Tree Classification
0285/285
0132/5
10/4
011/11
0132/9
08/0
176/262
066/3
1153/276
11/6
13/11
09/6
167/256
08/0
Elevation Slope < 9.16
Closest Artificial Reef=
Closest Artificial Reef=Concrete CulvertsSpecies Concrete Modules
Wetlands = Estuarine and Marine Deepwater
Wetlands =
Distance from Urban>= 90.82
Distance from Urban< 90.82
Land Cover Type =
Seawall Distance < 187.4 m
Seawall Distance>= 187.4 mBeach Width >= 132.7
Beach Width < 132.7
Elevation Slope >= 9.16Elevation Slope >= 9.16
= Land Cover Type
077/14
Medium Density, Fixed Single Family UnitsBeaches other than Swimming BeachesTidal FlatsSwimming BeachMedium Density, Under Construction
No WetlandFreshwater Forested/Shrub WetlandEstuarine and Marine Wetland
Modules Plastic ConesShip SteelBarge SteelSteel Tank TurretsModules Concrete GhettosArmy Tank M‐60Barge Steel & Steel ScrapModules Concrete Walters Limestone UnitsModules Concrete GhettosShip Steel Tug Concrete CulvertsBridge Rubble Concrete
Community Recreational FacilitiesAuto Parking Facilities
Sand Other than BeachesMixed Scrub‐ shrub Wetland
Parks and Zoos
Nesting Locations based on important characteristics
No Wetland
Freshwater Forested/Shrub Wetland
Estuarine and Marine Wetland
Modules Plastic Cones Barge Steel & Steel Scrap
Modules Concrete Ghettos (65)Modules Concrete Walters Limestone Units
Bridge Rubble Concrete Modules Concrete Ghettos (86)Ship Steel 400' Ship Steel Tug 95Barge Steel Concrete CulvertsSteel Tank Turrets Ship SteelModules Concrete Ghettos (80) Army Tank M‐60 # 6
Medium Density, Fixed Single Family UnitsBeaches other than Swimming BeachesTidal FlatsSwimming BeachMedium Density, Under Construction
_________Landcover Type____________________Wetland_________
_______________Artificial Reef_______________
Conclusions Suggestions Considerations
oPopulationo Highest Density = open areas o Natural physical variables are important
oHabitato High tide, land cover, nourishment, and physical
parameterso Urbanization, is it a problem or not
oTreeo Sea turtles are not deterred by urban
landscapes, nest near wetlands (but not always), and appear to travel towards the beach with reef type in mind
o Multiple years
o Consider species
oIncrease research on urbanizationo sea turtle site selection
oNourishment evaluationo Compare nourishment sand sources to
assess more specifics of beach avoidance
oFalse crawl data‐collection trainingo Discussion between regional
stakeholders
Acknowledgments
North Carolina
o Dr. Patrick N. Halpin
o Dr. Dean L. Urban
o William Cioffi & Erin Labrecque
Florida
o Erika Zambello, Marine Economic and Tourist Development Resource Coordinator at Okaloosa County
o Sharon Maxwell, South Walton Turtle Watch
o Sara and George Gray, Emerald Coast Turtle Watch
o Kathleen Gault & Eglin Air Force Base
o Mark Nicholas, Biologist/Collateral FMO of the Gulf Islands National Seashore and National Park Service
Thank you
Nest & Crawl Type Distribution within the Study Site
County Beach Nests False Crawls Total
Escambia Perdido Key (Public & State) 11 N/A 11
Perdido Key (GI) 17 N/A 17
Fort Pickens (GI) 10 N/A 10
Santa Rosa Island (GI) 35 N/A 35
Pensacola Beach 16 N/A 16
Santa Rosa Navarre 4 1 5
Santa Rosa & Okaloosa Eglin 65 36 101
Okaloosa Okaloosa Island 5 3 8
Destin 13 5 18
Walton Walton 64 NA 64
240 45 285
Best Model Equation: species ~ Land Cover Type + Elevation Slope + Wetlands + Distance to Urban Areas + Beach Width + Artificial Reef Type + Distance to Seawall
Variable Type Variable Attributes :
Amount & Range
Observed Nests (1) Random Nests (0)
Land Cover Type 58 Types Medium Density, Fixed Single Family Units
Beaches other than swimming beaches
Tidal Flats
Swimming Beach
Medium Density, Under Construction
Community Recreational Facilities
Auto Parking Facilities
Sand other than Beaches
Mixed Scrub – Shrub Wetland
Parks and Zoos
Elevation Slope 0 ‐ 29.42 >= 9.16 < 9.16
Wetlands 7 Types No Wetland
Freshwater Forested / Shrub Wetland
Estuarine and Marine Wetland
Estuarine and Marine Deepwater
Distance to Urban Areas 0‐3600 < 90.82 >= 90.82
Beach Width 73.08 ‐ 891.40 >= 132.675 < 132.675
Artificial Reef Type 18 Types Module Plastic Cones
Ship Steel
Barge Steel
Steel Tank Turrets
Modules Concrete Ghettos (2 locations)
Army Tank M‐60
Barge Steel & Ship Scrap
Modules Concrete Walters
Limestone Units
Ship Steel Tug
Concrete Culverts
Bridge Rubble Concrete
Concrete Culverts
Special Concrete Modules
Distance to seawall 0 ‐ 12359.80 < 187.395 >=187.39
False Crawls
Best Model Equation : species ~ Distance to High Tide + Total Land Use Type + Wetlands Type + Nourishment Source + Road Type + Grain SizeVariable Factor Description* Estimate Pr(>|z|)
(Intercept) ‐0.09153 0.94473
Distance from
High Tide
0.05806 0.00186
Total Land
Use
Beaches other than swimming
beaches
‐0.6021 0.525061
Communications ‐0.86227 0.629379
Sand other than beaches ‐5.34499 0.023308
Swimming beach 0.427661 0.653654
Ocean 0.114283 0.914584
Wetlands
Type
Estuarine and Marine Deepwater ‐0.97481 0.128424
Nourishment
Source
Offshore 1.527727 0.469761
Inlet 1.403586 0.133982
East Pass Ebb Shoal ‐0.5605 0.727446
Road Type Road or Street, Class 3 ‐0.73884 0.272859
Secondary Route, Class 2, Undivided ‐0.99841 0.5245
Road or Street, Class 3, Divided by
centerline
1.527727 0.469761
Primary Route, Class 1, Divided by
centerline
2.329372 0.043049
Grain Size 0.106144 0.279332
Sand other thanbeaches
Esturine and MarineDeepwater
Distance from HighTide Inlet
Primary Route, Class1, Divided bycenterline
Estimate ‐5.34 ‐0.97 0.06 1.40 2.33
‐6.00
‐5.00
‐4.00
‐3.00
‐2.00
‐1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
Estim
ate Of A
ssociatio
n
Characteristic Type and Specific Association
Significant Characteristics and their Association with Sea Turtle Nest Site Selection: Presence ‐ Absence Model
Works CitedFielding, A.H., and J.F. Bell. 1997. A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environ. Conservation 24:38‐49.
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Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (2015) Sea Turtle Monitoring (the SNBS and INBS Programs) from http://myfwc.com/research/wildlife/sea‐turtles/nesting/sea‐turtle‐monitoring/
Gallaher, A.A (2009), “The Effects of Beach Nourishment on Sea Turtle Nesting Densities in Florida”, [Online]. Available: http://ufdcimages.uflib.ufl.edu/UF/E0/04/10/87/00001/gallaher_a.pdf
Garmestani, A. S., Percival, H. F., Portier, K. M., & Rice, K. G.. (2000). Nest‐Site Selection by the Loggerhead Sea Turtle in Florida's Ten Thousand Islands. Journal of Herpetology, 34(4), 504–510. http://doi.org/10.2307/1565263
Miller JD, Limpus CJ, Godfrey MH (2003) Nest site selection, oviposition, eggs, development, hatching, and emergence of loggerhead turtles. In: Loggerhead Sea Turtles (eds BoltenAB, WitheringtonBE), pp. 125–143. Smithsonian Books, Washington.
Mortimer, J. A. 1995. Factors influencing beach selection by nesting sea turtles. Pages 45–51 in K. A.Bjorndal, editor. Biology and conservation of sea turtles. Smithsonian Institution Press, Washington , D.C. Retreived fromhttp://college.holycross.edu/faculty/kprestwi/chelonia/pubs/3_book_chapters/BeachSelection.pdf
Mosier, A.E. & Witherington B.E. (nd) “Documented Effects of Coastal Armoring Structures on Sea Turtle Nesting Behavior” [online]. Available: http://www.fws.gov/nc‐es/ecoconf/mosier%20paper.pdf
Ruppert T.K. (2008), “Eroding Long‐Term Prospects for Florida’s Beaches:
Florida’s Coastal Management Policy” [Online]. Available: http://biotech.law.lsu.edu/climate/docs/FINAL%20REPORT_8.19.08.pdf
Salmon, Michael. (2003) Artificial night lighting and sea turtles. Florida Atlantic University, USA. Biologist. 50;4. From http://www.science.fau.edu/biology/faculty/Artificial%20Lighting%20as%20a%20Threat.pdf
Urban, D.L. 2003. Habitat Classification Models: Classification and Regression Trees. Duke University, Lab.
Witherington, B. E.. (1992). Behavioral Responses of Nesting Sea Turtles to Artificial Lighting. Herpetologica, 48(1), 31–39. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/3892916
Weishampel J.F., D.A. Bagley, L.M. Ehrhart, B.L. Rodenbeck (2003). Spatiotemporal patterns of annual sea turtle nesting behaviors along an East Central Florida beach. Biol. Conserv., 110, 295–303
See Additional Information for variable data sources
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