SDS-WAS Regional Steering Group meeting 25-26 February 2011
Dust forecast model intercomparison: Case study of the Dust Cloud of April 2011
N. Huneeus and M. Schulz
Proposal for a joint study in the framework of the SDS-NAMEE node
SDS-WAS Regional Steering Group meeting 25-26 February 2011
Rationale
• Examine model performance to simulate dust events affecting Europe and identify whether this is due to vertical profile, optics, size distribution, removal fluxes, wind fields or other model characteristics or processes.
• Assess the models capacity to predict the approach of a dust event affecting Europe.
• Examine how this performance varies for different forecast time steps.
• Dust event of April 2011 was selected for this study.
SDS-WAS Regional Steering Group meeting 25-26 February 2011
Dust event of April 2011
SDS-WAS Regional Steering Group meeting 25-26 February 2011
Dust event of April 2011
Additional observations: Enric Terradellas
Surface concentration (PM10): EMEP stations
LIDAR profiles (e.g. EARLINET, CALIOP)
Satellite products (AOD): e.g. MODIS, MISR
SDS-WAS Regional Steering Group meeting 25-26 February 2011
Dust models
MACC-ECMWF (ECMWF)
INCA-LMDZ (LSCE-IPSL)
Unified Model (MetOffice)
DREAM (BSC, Barcelona)
CHIMERE (LMD-IPSL)
NAAPS (NRL)
P. Knippertz and S. Fiedler (U. Leeds) will be collaborating in the analysis and intercomparison of model emissions
J.-J. Morcrette
M. Schulz
D. Walters
J. Baldasano
L. Menut
J. Reid
NMMB-BSC-Dust C. Pérez
SDS-WAS Regional Steering Group meeting 25-26 February 2011
Variables considered (3 hourly)
• 2D Total AOD@550nm• 2D Dust AOD, total and fine mode (<1um) or per bin • 3D aerosol and dust extinction @550nm• Wind at 10m (zonal and meridional) [m/s]• 3D wind field [m/s] • 2D Surface dust concentration, total and fine mode or per bin. [g/m3]• 2D Total aerosol load [kg/m2]• 3D Dust mixing ratio for all dust tracers in model [kg/kg] (accompanied by
ascii readme file on how to recompute aerosol size)• 2D Emission fluxes, both total and per bin/mode [kg/m2/s]• 2D Removal fluxes (wet & dry), both total and per bin/mode [kg/m2/s]• Temperature, Relative humidity and Pressure fields at surface, 850 and
500 hPa• Soil characteristics
IMPORTANT: Each group has to send the model fields following AeroCom phase II convention on naming of the variables and files
SDS-WAS Regional Steering Group meeting 25-26 February 2011
Thank you!
SDS-WAS Regional Steering Group meeting 25-26 February 2011
Is there an appropriate score?
Skill scores are widely used in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) community and Regional Air quality
Yes NoYes a b a+bNo c d c+d
a+c b+d
Observed
Forecast
E.g.: Contingency tables
Scores=F(a,b,c,d)
More traditional metrics such as Correlation, Bias, root mean square error, their normalized versions, etc
SDS-WAS Regional Steering Group meeting 25-26 February 2011
Top Related