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Scottish Public Opinion MonitorSeptember 2013
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Independence referendum
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Q. Should Sco t land be an independent coun t ry?
Referendum voting intention
Base: All = 1,000; all certain to vote = 73% (728). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9 th-15 th September 2013
30%
57%
14%
All
Yes Changesince May
+2
31%
59%
10%
Certain to vote
Yes Changesince May
0
Yes
No
Undecided
Yes
No
Undecided
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Q. Should Sco t land be an independent coun t ry?
Referendum voting intention certain to vote
Base: All certain to vote = 73% (728). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9 th-15 th September 2013
31%
59%
10%
Certain to vote
Yes Changesince May
0
Yes
No
Undecided
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Q. Should Sco t land be an independent coun t ry?
Referendum voting intention recent trend
Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13
Yes No Undecided
59%
31%
10%
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Q. Should Sco t land be an independent coun t ry?
Voting intention amongst those certain to vote anddefinitely decided how they will vote
Base: All certain to vote and definitely decided (531). Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults
33%
67%
All definitely decided and certain to vote
38%
62%
33%
67%
33%
67%
Yes No
All definitely decidedand certain to vote(Feb-Sep)
Yes
No
No Changesince May
P t
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Q. Should Sco t land be an independent coun t ry?
Floating voters
Base: All giving a voting intention but may change their mind (251); all undecided (130). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9 th-15 th September 2013
39%
61%
All giving a voting intention butmay change their mind
35%
31%
34%
All undecided inclined to vote
Yes
No
Yes
No
Undecided
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hereSupport for independence long-term trend
Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 9 7 8
1 9 7 9
1 9 8 0
1 9 8 1
1 9 8 2
1 9 8 3
1 9 8 4
1 9 8 5
1 9 8 6
1 9 8 7
1 9 8 8
1 9 8 9
1 9 9 0
1 9 9 1
1 9 9 2
1 9 9 3
1 9 9 4
1 9 9 5
1 9 9 6
1 9 9 7
1 9 9 8
1 9 9 9
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2
2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4
2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6
2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3
S u p p o r t
f o r
i n d e
p e n
d e n c e
( % )
Introduction of the poll taxin Scotland
Devolution referendum
Scottish Parliament opens
Devolution referendum
SNP form minoritygovernment
SNP form majoritygovernment
Edinburgh Agreement
signed
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hereVoting intention by gender
Base: All certain to vote (755). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9 th-15 th September 2013
40%
54%
24%
64%
40%
es
No
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
Men Women
% voting Yes
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hereVoting intention by age group
Base: All certain to vote (755). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9 th-15 th September 2013
es
No
29%
62%
37%
51%12%
30%
61%9%
30%
61%9%
16-24 25-34
35-54 55+
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
16-24* 25-34 35-54 55+
*Jan 2012 May 2013 this was 18-24 year olds
% voting Yes
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hereVoting intention by levels of deprivation
Base: All certain to vote (755). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9 th-15 th September 2013
42%
45%
22%
69%
Most deprived areas Least deprived areas
es
No
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
Most deprived areas Least deprived areas
% voting Yes
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14%
80%6%
Voting intention by party support
Base: All certain to vote (755). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9 th-15 th September 2013
es
No
68%
21%
16%
75%9%
1% 98%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
SNP Lab Con Lib Dem
% voting Yes
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brand logohereechnical details
This presents the topline results from Scotland
Results are based on a survey of 1,000 respondentsconducted by telephone
Fieldwork dates: 9 th 15 th September 2013
Data are weight by: age, sex and working status usingcensus data; tenure using SHS data; and public-privatesector employment using Scottish Government QuarterlyPublic Sector Employment series data
Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due tocomputer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion ofdon t know categories
Results are based on all respondents (1,000) unless
otherwise stated
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Thank [email protected] | 0131 240 [email protected] | 0131 240 3264 @IpsosMORIScot
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