Risk and Resilience Assessment Kosovo
2017
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Date:
June 2017
Team Composition:
This document was prepared by Bledi Celiku (Young Professional, TTL) and Agon Maliqi
(Consultant) under the guidance of Radhika Srinivasan (Lead Operations Officer) and Marco
Mantovanelli (Country Manager, Kosovo). The team is grateful to Gloria La Cava (Senior
Social Scientist), Ifeta Smajic (Social Development Specialist), Lindita Lepaja (Operations
Officer), Maria Davalos (Senior Economist), Milena Stefanova (Senior Operations Officer),
and Rhedon Begolli (Senior Energy Specialist) for helpful feedback. Consultations with
partners, academia, regional organizations, and civil society organizations were instrumental
in formulating the report. The report was edited by Lauri Scherer.
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Table of Contents
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ..................................................................................................... 3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................. 4
CONTEXT ......................................................................................................................................................... 6 HISTORICAL TRAJECTORY .......................................................................................................................................... 6 KEY RECENT DEVELOPMENTS ................................................................................................................................... 9
DRIVERS OF FRAGILTY AND THEIR ROOT CAUSES ................................................................ 10 CONTESTED STATEHOOD AND UNRESOLVED ISSUES WITH SERBIA ............................................................ 11 HIGH LEVELS OF ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL DISENFRANCHISEMENT, PARTICULARLY AMONG
YOUTH ............................................................................................................................................................................ 14 ACTORS THAT PROMOTE ALTERNATIVE POLITICAL ORDERS ........................................................................ 23
RESILIENCE FACTORS ............................................................................................................................ 25
KEY SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM RISKS ........................................................................................... 27
RECOMMENDATIONS .............................................................................................................................. 28
VISUAL ILLUSTRATION OF KEY DRIVERS OF FRAGILITY .................................................. 33
REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................................ 34
SOURCES ........................................................................................................................................................ 37
ANNEX 1. ETHNIC MAP OF KOSOVO ................................................................................................ 38
ANNEX 2. MAP OF RELIGIOUS RADICALIZATION ..................................................................... 39
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ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
AFK Alliance for the Future of Kosovo
CPF Country Partnership Framework
CSO civil society organization
DLK Democratic League of Kosovo
DPK Democratic Party of Kosovo
ECD early childhood development
ECE early childhood education
EE & RE energy efficiency and renewable energy
EU European Union
FCV fragility, conflict, and violence
FDI foreign direct investment
FYROM former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
IMF International Monetary Fund
KFOR Kosovo Force
KLA Kosovo Liberation Army
KSF Kosovo Security Force
MENA Middle East and North Africa
NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization
NEET not in education, employment, or training
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
PAR public administration reform
PFM public financial management
PISA Programme for International Student Assessment
UN United Nations
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization
USAID United States Agency for International Development
USIP United States Institute of Peace
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. Kosovo is a post-conflict society that for almost 17 years has undergone parallel
and complex processes of state building, democratization, and development, as well as
transitions in its economic model and social values. Its demographic structure is marked by
its youthful population and high density, which makes it vibrant and energetic. However, these
same qualities create many short-term liabilities that stem from the challenge of meeting
political and economic demands. A history marked by ethnic conflict, coupled with a lack of
democratic tradition, has created considerable path dependencies in shaping the key structural
factors of conflict and violence.
2. Events in recent years have shown that Kosovo, while largely stable, retains a
degree of fragility and potential for violence. This report, prepared as an input to the Kosovo
Country Partnership Framework (CPF), identifies three main fragility risks: (1) economic and
political disenfranchisement, especially of youth; (2) the unresolved issues with Serbia and
interethnic relations; and (3) the motives and actions of various political actors capitalizing on
structural drivers of fragility.
3. Economic and political disenfranchisement, especially of youth, is arguably one of
the greatest and most relevant risks for Kosovo in the near to medium term; it has
considerable potential to impact the country’s stability. High youth unemployment and
especially inactivity are caused by a wide range of supply factors, such as a youth bulge, poor
workforce skills, and weak matchmaking platforms. On the demand side, a weak private sector
is unable to create enough jobs, which over the past decade has put pressure on the public sector
to be the main provider of employment. This situation has fed a culture of political clientelism,
led to high rates of exclusion, adversely impacted the state’s capacity for service delivery, and
also fueled mistrust in and dissatisfaction with institutions. Youth disenfranchisement was
already an important driver of migration, political violence, and violent extremism in recent
years (albeit not at a very threatening level). However, failure to address some of the structural
root causes of this problem has further reduced trust in institutions and, in a context of no legal
freedom of movement within the European Union (EU), provided fertile ground for
radicalization and conflict.
4. Statehood remains not fully recognized in the international arena, even though
Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia in 2008. The EU-facilitated dialogue
between Kosovo and Serbia, which culminated with the Brussels Agreement, has managed to
somewhat normalize interethnic relations within Kosovo. However, its implementation
remains a challenge, and public trust in the merits of the dialogue in Kosovo is shaky at best.
Moving forward, the creation of the Association of Serb-Majority Municipalities, a key
demand from Serbia, remains a point of contention. The association is highly unpopular in
Kosovo and has been a source of political violence in the past. A further deepening of the EU
crisis (Brexit, migration influx, political tensions between some members) also creates an
unfavorable external environment for dialogue and could risk reviving the regions’ past
demons.
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5. Accumulated frustrations from economic and political disenfranchisement, as well
as the unresolved issues with Serbia, have fueled antiestablishment sentiments. This poses
a threat to the current institutional order and creates uncertainty. Religiously motivated
extremist groups and organized crime are also taking advantage of the situation on the ground,
further perpetuating the cycle that weakens the state. This report finds that there are other
ethnic, regional, and political dimensions of risk that interplay with one another; however, by
themselves they represent low- to medium-level risks. Only when they are mixed with the
structural causes of youth disenfranchisement do they have a more disruptive security impact
and potential for violence.
6. Regardless of the challenges mentioned above, Kosovo continues to have strong
resilience factors. The international community plays an active role, including through its
military presence on the ground, and thus remains a powerful guarantor of stability and
reconciliation between Kosovo and Serbia. Some domestic institutions, particularly security
sector ones, have higher rates of trust and have managed to confront significant domestic
political crisis and the challenge of violent extremism, which creates an important pillar of
stability. Kosovo is consolidating its democracy; therefore, elections and a relatively active
civil society serve as an important buffer to feelings of political disenfranchisement. On the
economic front, diaspora remittances and a widespread culture of family solidarity provide a
key safety net with which to mitigate the effects of economic disenfranchisement. While
violent extremism poses many security threats, a long and embedded tradition of moderate
Islam and increasing public awareness of threats reduce the risk of violent extremism spreading
in Kosovo.
7. In the upcoming CPF period, the World Bank Group (WBG) can address the
fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) risks facing Kosovo through several of its
programs. The issues of political and economic disenfranchisement present programming
overlaps, which creates opportunities for the WBG to engage in risk mitigation and prevention.
This particularly relates to the issue of increasing opportunities for youth, such as by reducing
labor market barriers, promoting entrepreneurship and apprenticeships, addressing skill gaps
where relevant, and facilitating links between the education sector and the labor market. The
WBG could also serve as a reliable mediator for ethnic relations by facilitating, where
programmatically possible, economic integration. Similarly, on the governance side, the WBG
could pay special attention to accountability mechanisms across its portfolio—especially in
public financial management (PFM) and public administration reform (PAR) initiatives, and
ensure that public resources and employment opportunities are equitably distributed to
vulnerable or disenfranchised groups or geographical areas.
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