Revitalising Ireland’s Towns
Prof. Cathal O’DonoghueHead, Teagasc Rural Economy Development Programme
Secretary, Burren Lowlands DevelopmentFormer CEO, Commission for the Economic Development of Rural Areas
BurrenLowlands
Local Economy
Demographics
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
OpenCountryside
Towns(1500-2999)
Towns(5000-9999)
WaterfordCity
LimerickCity
Dublin City
Aged < 15
Slightly younger profile both amongst children and over 65 ~Dependency Ratio above national average
-0.12
-0.1
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
Open C
ountry
side
Villag
es (2
00-1
499)
Towns
(150
0-29
99)
Towns
(300
0-49
99)
Towns
(500
0-99
99)
Towns
(100
00+)
Wat
erfo
rd C
ity
Galw
ay C
ity
Lim
eric
k City
Cork
City
Dublin
City
County
Dubl
in
Net Migration
Net inward migration as people moved out of cities
Education
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Open C
ountry
side
Villag
es (2
00-1
499)
Towns
(150
0-29
99)
Towns
(300
0-49
99)
Towns
(500
0-99
99)
Towns
(100
00+)
Wat
erfo
rd C
ity
Galw
ay C
ity
Lim
eric
k City
Cork
City
Dublin
City
County
Dubl
in
Tertiary Education
Education rate lower
Labour Market Employment Rate
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
Unemployment
National Average Employment RateAbove Average Unemployment Rate ~ age profile
Economic Growth vs Income Growth (since 2000)
Income Growth
State
Borde
r
Midl
andW
est
Dublin
Mid-
East
Mid-
Wes
t
South
-Eas
t
South
-Wes
t0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
2000-2012
Economic Growth
State
Borde
r
Midl
andW
est
Dublin
Mid-
East
Mid-
Wes
t
South
-Eas
t
South
-Wes
t0
0.10.20.30.40.50.60.7
2000-2012
Economic Growth (where activity is) more concentrated in Urban areas (and West). Income Growth (households) more dispersed- Difference due to commuting etc
Economic Growth vs Income Growth (since 2000)
Income Growth
State
Midl
and
Dublin
Mid-
Wes
t
South
-Wes
t
-0.2-0.18-0.16-0.14-0.12-0.1
-0.08-0.06-0.04-0.02
0
2007-2012
Economic Growth
State
Midl
and
Dublin
Mid-
Wes
t
South
-Wes
t
-0.35
-0.3
-0.25
-0.2
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
2007-2012
West fared best since crash
Economic Crisis
Impact of the economic downturn on Unemployment Rate(% Change) – Type of Area
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Ope
n Cou
ntry
Villag
e(20
0-14
99)
Town(1
500-
2999
)
Town(3
000-
4999
)
Town(5
000-
9999
)
Town(1
0000
+)
Wat
erfo
rd C
ity
Gal
way C
ity
Limer
ick
City
Cork
City
Dublin
City
(incl
. DL)
Dublin
Coun
ty
Natio
n
Small and Medium sized towns biggest impact – change in unemployment
Industry and Structural Change
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Agri Manuf Constr Comm
Transp Hotel Communic Fin
Prof Admin Public Educ
Health Other
Towns < 10000 – much more reliant on Agri, Manufacturing, Construction- Most at risk in future in terms of employment- Challenge for rural areas dominant sectors are those that have lost the most
jobs - Thus significant structural issues
Youth Migration
Source David Meredith
Large emigration – particularly from rural towns
Youth Employment
Dark colours youth employment blackspots
Source David Meredith
Poverty and Jobless Households
Consistent poverty
Children in consistent poverty
Jobless households
Cities & suburbs 4.9% 8.1% 19.8%
Towns and envi with pop=>5000
9.6% 13.2% 29%
Towns and envi with pop 1000<=<5000
10.1% 14.9% 31.5%
Mixed urban / rural areas 7.5% 8.1% 24.6%
Rural 6.5% 8.3% 24.3%
State 6.9% 9.3% 24%
Small Towns- Double Poverty- One third of working age households without employment – Key Cross- cutting Challenge a hard challenge
Variability across TownsNo Average Town
Rural Towns Index
Focus on “Economic Strength” Combination of Unemployment
Rate and Net Migration Rate in 2011
Low Rank ~ Strong High Rank ~ Weak
Not necessarily an East-West Issue Weakest towns (Red)
Furthest from Cities (in general) Commuting-in towns Lower Skills
Source David Meredith
Location by Strength
Strongest 2 3 4 Weakest Share of Population
Border 0.07 0.28 0.28 0.16 0.22 0.17
East 0.26 0.16 0.14 0.26 0.19 0.08
Midlands 0.07 0.16 0.24 0.11 0.42 0.1
Mid-West 0.23 0.16 0.1 0.27 0.24 0.12
SE 0.04 0.16 0.24 0.28 0.29 0.18
SW 0.27 0.23 0.29 0.17 0.04 0.16
West 0.31 0.29 0.02 0.11 0.28 0.17
West one of the highest share of “weakest” townsWest has highest share of “strongest” towns
Characteristics by Strength National Average = 100
Unemployment Rate
Old:Young
TertEd Share
Distance to Closest Hub
Net Migration
Share of Net Jobs
Strongest 75 96 124 76 0.23 -420
2 90 101 102 85 0.05 -130
3 99 97 103 106 0.03 171
4 107 102 90 113 -0.02 142
Weakest 125 103 84 124 -0.04 577
Stronger towns have lower unemployment, slightly younger, better educated, closer to hub, commuting outWeaker – opposite –however the local economic hub for rural areas
Post 2012
Economic Growth (Moving Average, Constant Prices)
Source: CSO National Accounts
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 202020000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
GNP pc GDP pc
After sharp decline and bouncing along bottom, increasing evidence of a recovery- More recently improvement in personal consumption and
construction.- Economy now back to where it was before peak
Change in Live Register
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
Rural Urban
Since trough 2011
Since peak 2007
Live Register - Rural Areas up 134% in 2015 of 2007- Down 21% since 2011- Urban Areas up 104% in 2015 since 2007- Down 19% since 2011
Top and Bottom Live Register Recovery Counties
Rank Males Females
1 Meath Limerick
2 Limerick Meath
3 Cork Cork
4 Galway Clare
5 Cavan Galway
Rank Males Females
27 Monaghan Monaghan
26 Wicklow Laois
25 Laois Carlow
24 Carlow Westmeath
23 Offaly Roscommon
Top Bottom
Larger urban centres and commuting zones like Galway (except)
Midlands slowest recovery in unemployment
Strategy
National Spatial Strategy
Recognise Quite a young population in towns, even in more remote areas
Skills level often lower, particularly in weakest towns
Many have lost jobs Higher unemployment, Jobless Households
Negative Equity Likely to remain so for the foreseeable future The issue will not go away Long term challenge for services and economic development
National Spatial Strategy
Need for public policy to counter balance natural economic forces
Balanced spatial development not to be ashamed of There is a role for the state in countering economic forces Both Nationally and within Counties
Economic forces will tend to improve areas of relative advantage State Prioritise areas of disadvantage
Existing NSS weak on towns vital to have a national policy for these area Nationally as many people live in rural towns as in Greater Dublin!!
CEDRA
Commission for the Economic Development of Rural Areas – What?
CEDRA Objective Develop a strategy guiding medium-term economic development of the Rural Areas
for the period to 2025. Voluntary Commission Chaired by Pat Spillane Established November 2012 Report Presented to the Minister in November 2013.
Minister for Rural Affairs appointed June 2014 with objective of implementing CEDRA report
CEDRA Inter-Departmental Group chaired by Minister for Rural Affairs, Ann Phelan – July 2014
Delivering Rural Economic Development
Key Challenges Short Term Create more Employment in Rural Areas Long Term Reskill and restructure nature of employment
Key Themes Rural Economic Development Cross-cutting delivery Improve Coordination of Policy and Programme Implementation
Challenging Department and Agency business plans v.v. rural economic development
No Silver Bullet Lots of Small Steps
Areas of Potential Job Creation Rural Resources (Agriculture, Marine, Tourism, Creative, Renewable) Exporting Sector (FDI, Export sector, Commuting into cities) Domestic Demand (Services supplying rural economy)
Rural Economic Development Zones
Rural Economic Development Zones Functional Areas Bottom up integrated zones Plan prepared locally Leveraging agency and government task force REDZ Announced this week
Recommendations
5. Improving Human Resources and Skills Multi-agency approach to reskilling and up skilling of rural dwellers
should be employed taking into consideration availability of and access to opportunities
Increase skill levels in rural areas to facilitate access to high value jobs and to re-skill those who lost construction jobs, particularly in Food, ICT, Sales and Language training
Improve access to higher education opportunities through greater use of ICT in “super VECs” linked to Institute’s of Technology
National skills strategies to reflect rural differentiated needs Development of localised skill strategies
Recommendations
6. Capitalising on our Rural Resources Support national strategies to expand industries based upon rural
resources, Food, Marine, Tourism, Creative, Green Business sectors
Greater focus on generating value added across supply chains Acknowledge the importance of the cooperative model in supply chain
integration and development Deliver more recreation and tourism based private value from Agri-
Environmental Schemes Increase FDI in Food sector. Give more responsibility to IDA Develop an Agri risk management financial industry Increase Speciality Foods sector and its export focus by Teagasc/EI/BB
Food Works and Related initiatives
Recommendations
7. Re-energise Rural Tourism Development of Local Destinations by new Local Economic
Development Structures Greater strategic planning in relation to Rural Tourism and a higher focus
amongst Development Agencies Development of key national infrastructures such as long distance
cycleways and the Wild Atlantic Way Exploit Heritage Local Capacity Building necessary to support Rural Tourism
Rural Tourism
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
1990 2000 2010
Share Outside of Dublin
0100020003000400050006000700080009000
1990 2000 2010
Total Tourist Visits
International Tourist Visitors Share of Tourism Revenue Outside Dublin
More than doubling tourism numbersShare of revenue outside Dublin declining
Significant room for improvement in rural tourism. There is huge potential in the area if we can build the right product and promote it to attract tourists to the area
Re-energise Rural Tourism
Development of Local Destinations by new Local Economic Development Structures The Gathering emphasised potential
Development of key national infrastructures such as long distance cycleways and the Wild Atlantic Way how to gain more from it?
Build upon cultural and heritage strength Heritage, Ecology, Culture, Landscape
Local Capacity Building necessary to support Rural Tourism Big Challenges given localised nature
Generating Economic Growth in Rural Towns
Objectives of policy need to be multifaceted with a focus on Make towns more attractive to live in, visit and work Make it easier to do business Increase consumer demand and sentiment Improve access to finance of SME’s
Generating Economic Growth in Rural Towns
Develop a Small Towns Stimulus Programme to mitigate the worst impact of the Economic Downturn on Small and Medium Sized Rural Towns
Specifically the Small Towns Stimulus Programme would Build upon local strengths including Heritage Improve the physical architecture and appearance of small towns
by create targeted incentives to facilitate town and village renewal and refurbishment.
Make it easier to do business by taking some of the fixed costs It would leverage complementary actions from different agencies
Recommendations
9. Mobilising Community Capacity for Economic Development Continuation of a Community Led Local Development approach to
the delivery of rural development initiatives advocated in Putting People First.
Development of a programme of capacity building Rural Community Leadership Programme for rural communities initiated and implemented by local government in partnership with local development structures.
Build capacity of local communities, business and individuals to generate opportunities locally
Local Development
Local Economic and Community Plan
Development requires a different mindset Taking risks Proactive not passive Focus on finding solutions Need to identify strengths and optimising them
Build community capacity Top-Down will not work in the long term Communities don’t necessarily have the skill set
Capacity Building Necessary
Spread the load LCDC’s need to work Agencies need to Partner together Jobless households is a multi-dimensional problem
Recognise specific needs of cross-county boundary areas Needs cross county coordination
Local Economic and Community Plan
Local Authorities and Local Development Agencies have a really important role in Local Economic Development
Critical time in the recovery to get regional balance right and avoid problems of the past
Be brave and ambitious
Community Led Local Development
Community Leadership Development
Development will be more effective if communities involved
More Sustainable
More Cost Effective Communities can build upon local
Community Leadership Development Network
Pilot Programme in County Galway (Partners – Galway CoCo, GRD, GRETB, Teagasc)
Form groups in each RED zone in Galway Deliver Community Leadership Development Programme to members of
each RED group + Supporting Materials. Galway Chamber Mentors to assist in background analysis on zone. Data provided by Teagasc
RED teams develop SWOT analysis, facilitated by Galway Chamber Mentors
Form Community Economic Development Support Network Convene meeting of network to have facilitated discussion of RED SWOT
analyses and to generate learnings from initial SWOT analysis Each RED to host a public meeting to develop initial strategic plan for RED
on the basis of SWOT and Analysis. Methodology employed by Burren Lowlands to be followed
Community Leadership Development Network
Convene meeting of network to have facilitated discussion of RED Strategic plans and to generate learnings from Strategic plans
Identify funding sources and in particular opportunities for LEADER funding support/Rural Towns and Village Renewal Scheme for Strategic Plans
Prepare in conjunction with Galway Chamber mentors Business Cases for funding
Convene meeting of network to have facilitated discussion of RED Programme Business plans and to generate learnings from Business Plans
Submit Funding Bids On-going network activities in relation to learnings and collaboration
between groups
Community Leadership Development Programme
The objective of a Community Leadership Development Programme is to provide basic skills for community leaders and groups to facilitate economic development and to implement plans for action. What do you want to do - Ideas generation Working with people and groups work (e.g. the methodology of
facilitating, animating, motivating, and generating consensus within their communities)
Preparing a plan and project management Leadership and Strategy in a Community Setting The political and public policy process Understanding the socio-economics of your community and accessing
information on it Marketing and Promoting your initiative Financing your project and monitoring the finances Advocacy and Campaigning
Beautiful Burren
Lowlands
www.burrenlowlands.ie
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