Review of Rural Highway Traffic Counts
Can the Trans-Texas Corridor be Justified?
By Erik SlotboomToll & Corridor Summit Meeting
November 13, 2004
Also by Erik Slotboom
FireRicWilliamson.com HoustonFreeways.com
Founded by Erik Slotboom: TexasFreeway.com
Trans-Texas Corridor Overall Conclusions
• Only one corridor may justify a relief route:I-35, San Antonio to Hillsboro
• Existing Interstates are adequate in all other cases
• Some sections of existing Interstates will need a 3rd lane in each direction by 2034
• Trans-Texas corridor cannot be justified
How much traffic can existing Interstates handle?
Approximate
Typical 4-lane Rural Interstate
Interstate 35W South of Fort Worth
Typical 4 lane InterstateHow much traffic can it carry?
Vehicles/day
Rural I-35 S of Waco
I-45 S of Huntsville
56,000
45,000
Urban I-45 S of Conroe
US 59 Sugar Land (1999)
I-820 Fort Worth
102,000
129,000
124,000
• A 4-lane freeway can serve > 100,000 vehicles/daywith reduced service
Typical 6-lane Interstate
I-35 North of New Braunfels
Typical 6 lane InterstateHow much traffic can it carry?
Vehicles/day
Rural I-35 N of San Marcos 76,000
UrbanI-10 West Houston
Loop 1 Mopac Austin
220,000
170,000
• A 6-lane freeway can serve > 200,000 vehicles/daywith reduced service
Implied Tran-Texas Corridor Traffic
6-lane Trans-Texas
10-lane Trans-Texas
Existing Interstate
50,000 50,000
Trans-Texas + 100,000 + 200,000
Total Traffic 150,000 250,000
What kind of traffic counts do we have in 2003?
Is it anywhere approaching Trans-Texas capacity?
2003 traffic data
Source: TxDOT
• Existing traffic volumes are easily handled by existing 4-lane Interstates
Will traffic grow to Trans-Texas proportions?
Interstate 10Houston to San Antonio
2003 Traffic Data
Interstate 45Houston to Dallas
2003 traffic data
Interstate 35San Antonio to Laredo
“NAFTA Corridor”
• There has not been a NAFTA traffic boom
• Traffic counts stagnant since 2000
2003 traffic data
NAFTA Influence
• Strong growth in 1990s
• Stagnant since 1999
• Traffic Count still very low
Interstate 69 Corridor
• Can it justify a Trans-Texas corridor?
NO.
A conventional 4-lane interstate will serve traffic needs
6-lane sections needed approaching Houston
2003 traffic data
Interstate 35San Antonio to Hillsboro
• The only corridor that could possibly justify something resembling a Trans-Texas corridor
• Original TxDOT plan:widen existing facility to 6 (rural) and 8 (urban) lanes
2003 traffic data
• 4-lane sections south of Hillsboro need added lane in each direction immediately
• Expansion on hold pending Trans-Texas plan
I-35 2004 Status
Financial Case Study
• What if we build a Trans Texas Corridor from Georgetown to Hillsboro?
This is the only corridor section that has a remote chance of being viable
How Much Would It Cost?
Construction $1.38 billion $28.2 million/mile
Right-of-Way $300 million (est.) $6 million/mile
Compare to SH 130, Austin to Georgetown: 6 lanes, 102 miles
Assume a minimal Trans-Texas corridor, 4 highway lanes only but on a wide corridor
Cost per mile 110 miles
Construction $20 million $2.2 billion
Right-of-way $4 million $440 million
2.64 billion
Other costs .11 billion
Total 2.75 billion
How Much Traffic Will Use It?
Compare to Hardy Toll Road / I-45 Corridor in
Houston to determine I-35 / Trans-Texas split
• Interstate 45 north in Houston is one of the most heavily loaded freeways in the United States (per lane-mile)
Conclusion
• Toll road traffic has been consistent at 15% of corridor traffic in spite of severe congestion on I-45
• Motorists will endure severe congestion to avoid tolls
Analysis Assumption
• Toll percent of corridor traffic stays low until I-35 is severely congested
I-35 TrafficVehicles per day
Toll Traffic as % of Total
<75,000 10%
75,000-100,000 40% of traffic over 75,000
>100,000 80% of traffic over 100,000
Other Assumptions
• No capacity improvements to I-35;4-lane sections remain 4 lanes forever
• $10 toll Georgetown-Hillsboro ($.09/mile)increasing at 3% per year
• 10% corridor traffic increase after 20 years due to induced demand
• Assume 4.5% interest, 40 year term on $2.75 billion in bonds. Annual Payment: $149 million
Financial Shortfall
• About 25 years of subsidy required
Where will the money come from?
Toll Interstate 35!
Conclusion
• Tolling existing rural interstates is the only way to make any Trans-Texas corridor viable
– Bribe rural counties with a cut of the money to defuse rural opposition
Other Financial Risks
• High gasoline cost – lower traffic counts
• Faulty assumptions (eg NAFTA)
• Lower than forecast population growth
• Predominantly Hispanic population
– Hispanic regions most anti-toll
– Lower income groups can’t afford tolls
Slower Population Growth?
Dallas Morning News, October 4, 2004
NAFTA: what happened?
1990s assumption:
future traffic boom
2000s reality:
Everything is being made in China
Result:
Flat traffic volume to Mexico
Alameda Corridor in Los AngelesPaying the Price for Faulty Assumptions
• $2.5 billion spent on rail lineNow it is grossly underutilized
“In the nearly two decades it took to plan and build the corridor, the shipping business changed so dramatically that the economic assumptions underpinning the project became obsolete.” L.A. Times, August 22, 2004
A Better Way to Meet Our Needs
• Add extra lanes to existing interstates as needed
• Rebuilding a 4-lane interstate to a 6-lane interstate costs about $10 million per mile, half the cost of a Trans-Texas corridor
Actual needs in the next 30 years
Can be doneWITHOUT TOLLS
The Engineer SaysTraffic counts can’t even remotely justify Trans-Texas Corridor
The Financial Analyst SaysTolling will only pay a tiny fraction of the cost for decades
The Concerned TexanWorries about steep tolls on existing Interstates to pay for it
Trans-Texas
Corridor
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