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Reston’s Coming Urban Area Transportation Network:
An Early Look at the Cost of Streets and Transit in and around Reston’s Station Areas
March 24, 2016
Summary
The transportation infrastructure needed to support the future development of Reston’s transit station
areas is likely to cost more than five billion dollars over the next 40 years in current dollars. The bulk of
that cost will likely be for a roadway network—the grid of streets within each station area and the
“Reston-wide” roadways that provide access to them—at a cost of more than four billion in current
dollars. A few tens of millions of dollars will be needed over that time to improve pedestrian, bicycle,
and other transportation access within the station areas.
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Assuming federal, state, regional, and other non-local revenue sources pick up $20 million of that annual
Reston transportation improvement cost and developers field their share of the property taxes, Reston
households would likely see an average of about $340 per year added to their to their property tax bills
over the next 40 years if any of Options #3-#6 are selected. That’s $10,000-$17,000 in added property
taxes over 40 years per Reston household depending on the funding option and tax districting selected.
The total added tax cost to Reston households would likely be more than one-half billion dollars if one of
Options #3-#6 is selected, but it could go as high as one billion dollars using Option #5 Reston-wide over
the timespan of this forecast.
The overall cost for Reston’s urban transportation improvements will be nearly twice what has been
presented to the RNAG over the next 40 years using conservative assumptions of future development and inflation. Developer stakeholders have millions of dollars to gain annually by shifting more of that
large financial burden to the “public” rather than placing it upon themselves. It is imperative that the
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Reston’s Coming Urban Area Transportation Network:
An Early Look at the Cost of Streets and Transit in and around Reston’s Station Areas
March 24, 2016
Introduction
With the saga of creating a new Reston Master Plan (RMP) completed last year, efforts are underway to
create and cost a plan to implement those development guidelines, most notably an effort to create a
transportation improvement framework for the Reston transit station areas (TSAs). Some Restonians
may be aware that Supervisor Hudgins has created a Reston Network Analysis Group (RNAG) to examine
what roadway improvements need to be made in (“network grid of streets”) and around (“Reston-wide”) Reston’s transit station areas (TSAs) to accommodate the planned high-density growth there.
The RNAG’s efforts ignore a critical urban area transportation capability: The RNAG’s charter does not
address the key role transit has to play in the future development of Reston’s urban areas if a street
network of LOS “E” is to work at all. In fact, without adequate transit, both the Reston-wide streets and
the street grid will fail with serious consequences for planned development.
One of the most challenging issues in developing a comprehensive urban transportation plan for Reston
is planning for the huge investment it will entail, including determining who will pay those costs. The
RNAG has just begun to wrestle with these issues in terms Reston’s urban street network. In the
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Costing Reston’s Needed Roadway Improvements
The RNAG is examining the costs of the grid of streets and the through streets that they link to as well aswho will pay for these major roadway improvements. At this point, the preliminary County estimate of
the costs of building these streets is about $2.6 billion in 2015 dollars as shown below.
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inflation’s impact between the two is due to the need to build the foundational Tysons-wide street
improvements early (the first 20 years) resulting in less inflation impact and fill in the grid of streets as
development occurs more linearly over the 40-year timeframe. Combining these varying cost growth
rates on a weighted basis in a large spreadsheet calculating inflated costs for each project at three
percent, the results indicated that total costs would increase by 58.2% over 40 years.
Applying these 40-year inflation adjustments by category of roadway to the 2015 dollar values the
County presented to RNAG, “Reston-wide” street costs increase from $1.345 billion to $1.887 billion and
the “grid of streets costs rises from $1.244 billion to $2.209 billion. The order of magnitude total 40-
year current dollar cost for Reston’s streets will be about $4.1 billion or about $100 million per year.
But What about Bus Transit?
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What is most important in the above table is that roadway improvement costs comprise only about two-
thirds of the $3.0 billion 2012 dollar cost of the transportation projects in Tysons. (See Appendix A for
the individual projects covered in these forecasts in 20-year increments.) To understand the
comparable forty-year costs in Reston transportation development, we need to take two steps:
Calculate the impact of inflation using the MCA inflation analysis used above for the grid of
streets.
Adjust the costs of the Tysons forecast to account for the fewer Metro stations, smaller area,
and reduced density of planned development in Reston.
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and residents in Tysons versus 57,000 jobs-residents per station in Reston per station. (Reston
plans for about 76% the jobs and residents as Tysons.)
Tysons is a larger physical area (1,956 acres) than Reston’s urbanizing areas (1,683 acres) and
will require more transit to provide the same level of service. (Reston is 86% the size of Tysons.)
The logical way to discount Tysons’ transit spending to fit Reston at approximately the same level of
transit service per capita would seem to be to calculate the total jobs and residents per station and
multiply that by the relative size of Reston to Tysons.
Reston Transit Discount Factor = (Reston/Tysons Total Jobs & Residents per Station) X (Reston Acres/Tysons Acres)
which is: 0.76 X .86 = .654 = Reston Transit Discount Factor
Applying this discount factor to adjust the cost of future transit improvement costs in Tysons
($889 million) to Reston is as follows:
2012 Dollar Cost of Reston Urban Area Transit = $889MM X .654 = $581MM.
Like the “grid of streets,” spending on transit grows evenly over the 40-year period and, therefore, we
have used the grid’s inflation factor (77.6%) to adjust to current dollars. As a result, the relative cost of
transit improvements in Reston adjusted by the core differences in the number of stations and
development intensity and inflation, the current dollar 40-year cost of improving transit in Reston urban
areas would be about a $1,032 million.
The Total Cost of Reston Transportation Improvements
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We will be the first to admit that this order of magnitude forecast is filled with uncertainties. In
particular, the transit forecast is based on an extrapolation from Tysons planning, not an analysis of
specific Reston needs. A key question in that situation is whether County leaders intend to provide
transit service to Reston with the same high level of service as it is planning for Tysons. On the otherside of that calculation, the comparable planned roadway costs in Reston are probably higher as a share
of total costs than in Tysons because of the expensive Dulles Corridor crossings in Reston (Town Center
Parkway underpass, Soapstone and South Lakes overpasses) needed to ease congestion on its main
north-south through streets.
More broadly, there are a number of other costs that are not covered in this analysis to make it more
comparable with the analysis of Tysons needed transportation improvements. Early in the Tysonseffort, the total cost of all transportation improvements needed to sustain Tysons was put at more than
$15 billion, a five-fold increase of the $3.0 billion in costs we have found comparable to the
transportation improvement issues Reston now faces In most cases these additional improvements
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The cost of operating the current roadway and transit infrastructure. (The state maintains most
roads and transit is not being discussed by RNAG.)
Nonetheless, the following is clear:
The cost of building a transportation infrastructure to support the urbanizing areas of Reston
will be about twice as large as has been suggested to date—and certainly not discussed in the
development of the Reston Master Plan where it may have prompted more conservative, fiscally
sound development density goals.
Transit improvement costs, which are not on the table yet, will probably comprise about $1billion of the $5 billion needed in transportation improvements within Reston’s urban areas.
The County has not indicated when Reston urban area transit issues will be considered.
There may well be additional costs beyond those discussed above, including improvements in
Reston’s access to the Dulles Toll Road and other improved transit services to the rest of Reston
and possibly even the County.
Paying for Reston’s Transportation Improvements
$125 million per year is a lot of money for an urban area, a community, or even Fairfax County to pay to
support the for-profit endeavors of Reston’s station area developers to grow their profits. The good
news is that there is a diversity of public funding sources extending well beyond the County or Reston.
The County anticipates that about $303 million dollars in public funds will be available annually (starting
in 2021) for transportation spending county-wide of which $171 million (56%) comes from local sources.
Estimated Annual Public Funds Available
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Reston Transit Station Areas (TSA) (Herndon, Reston Town Center, and Wiehle Reston East
defined in the Reston Phase I Comprehensive Plan Amendment, Approved February 11, 2014).
Reston Phase I Inside of the Reston TSAs would primarily be a private sector responsibility.
These are projects and portions of projects inside the Reston TSAs. The grid is inside the Reston
TSAs and would be a private sector responsibility.
• Option #2: Location – Outside or Inside Reston TSAs--Allocates cost responsibility based on
location of improvements. Reston Phase I improvements outside of the Reston TSAs would be a
public responsibility. Reston Phase I improvements located inside of the Reston TSAs would be
a private sector responsibility. The grid network would be a private sector responsibility.
• Option #3: Through/Local Traffic Ratios-- Allocates cost responsibility based on the ratio of
through and local traffic volumes. Through Traffic: 35%; Local Traffic: 65%. Public sector
responsibility: Through traffic (35%) and half of locally generated traffic (32.5%). Private sector
responsibility: Half of locally generated traffic (32.5%) and the grid network.
• Option #4: Location and Through/Local Ratios-- Incorporates location and through/local ratios.
Reston Phase I Projects Outside of Reston TSAs: public sector responsibility. Reston Phase I
Projects inside of the Reston TSAs: shared public and private sector responsibility based on
through/local traffic ratios. Grid network: private sector responsibility.
• Option #5: Project Category-- Allocates costs on the basis of project type. Reston Phase I
Roadway projects would be a public sector responsibility. Reston Phase I Intersection projects
and the grid network would be the responsibility of the private sector.
• Option #6: Regional vs. Local Significance-- Cost allocation based on Regional or Local benefit
and significance. Regional projects such as the overpasses, underpass, and interchange: public
sector responsibility. Local projects and grid: private sector responsibility.
We believe most of these options are inappropriate for application to Reston urban areas—or other
urban areas. The Tysons Model and the Through/Local Traffic Ratio models have some modest merit,
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o Second, and more importantly, the notion that the public should pay for half of the
“locally generated traffic” under Option #3 is irrational. Developers should pay for all
the “locally generated traffic” under this option because it is their development that is
driving the added traffic. There would be no additional “locally generated traffic” in the
absence of their development. Developers (“private” sources) should pay for all the
added traffic their construction creates.
Option #2 and the last three options use arbitrary and capricious descriptors to characterize who
should pay for roadway improvements that have no ties to benefits, costs, usage, etc.
Moreover, what specific costs fit in each specific category is also arbitrary. Finally, it is almost
certain that more costs, for example, public transit, will be added to this plan, and the likelihood
is that those costs would fall more on the categories for which the public is principally
responsible. These include transportation improvements beyond the Phase I area, added Phase
I improvements not in the grid, improvements in the Phase I area beyond intersections and the
grid, and “regional” roadway improvements. Most worrisome is the fact that County staff
offered up Option #4 (Inside/Outside), the most capriciously defined of the several options, as
the “potential cost allocation model” for Reston with forecast costs showing that the “public”
would pay more than half ($1.345 billion in $2012) of the road improvement costs.
Option #7: Those who benefit financially from the transportation improvements pay for them.
We believe that by far the best criterion for deciding who pays for Reston’s transportation
improvements is determining who directly benefits financially from their construction. Indeed, it raises
the larger question whether the public should subsidize private sector profit-making investments. The
Reston 20/20 Committee believes that for-profit development or redevelopment, including the entireinfrastructure needed to sustain, if not improve, the community’s quality of life, should be paid for by
the developer who ends up generating more revenues and profits as a result. Moreover, by
establishing an intersection lower level of service (LOS) as an acceptable standard for traffic in this
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improvements are not built because tenants/buyers will avoid the resulting traffic and transit
congestion. Yet, no one in the “public,” whether those in the TSAs, Reston, or across the
County will garner additional revenue as a result of their construction.
In short, we believe those who will profit from these roadway (and later transit and other
transportation) improvements should pay for their construction and operation. Such an arrangement is
not only the most fair one for the “public,” it also helps assure that development is fully cost-
constrained and not reliant on a “public” subsidy—public monies bailing out the unwise decisions of for-
profit corporations.
Allocating the “Public” and “Private” Funding Sources
Looking at these costs in current dollars spread across roadway and transit improvements, the allocation
of funding between the public and private sources varies significantly among these seven options.
Nonetheless, the “public” could end up paying more than $2.5 billion for the transportation
improvements under the “Project Category” funding option as the following table shows:
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and tax districting selected. The total added tax cost to Reston households would likely be more than
one-half billion dollars if one of Options #3-#6 is selected, but it could go as high as one billion dollars
using Option #5 Reston-wide over the timespan of this forecast.2
What is “Public” and what is “Private” funding?
As the preceding highlights, what is “public” and what is “private” funding makes a big difference, yet
the County has not defined who fits into the categories of “public” and “private” funding. The definition
of these two terms in a measurable manner becomes very important at this point and should cover at
least the following topics:
Who is the “public?” Are these the people and businesses who live or are located in the station
areas, the totality of Reston, the entire County, or some other geographic area? If it is the
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ability to have developers alone absorb these transportation costs and not pass them on to
tenants/buyers?
The specifics of these definitions have major implications for who ends up paying the costs of Reston’s
urban area roadway improvements. In our view:
The “public”—whoever that is—in general should not pay for any of the improvements because
they will not reap any profits from their construction. Only the owners-developers will.
If the “public” must pay some share of the costs, it should only be that “public” that resides or
does business in the targeted Phase 1 station areas. A minor exception could be made fortransit that serves the Phase 1 areas from the anywhere in the County, which should be paid for
through normal County transit funding unless it is paid for by the “private” developers.
Under no circumstances should the whole of “Reston” be the “public” and share any portion of
the cost of transportation improvements in the station areas. Moreover, those station area
residential developments that were occupied before Phase 1 planning began in early 2010 and
are generally constrained from redevelopment should not be subject to “public” funding
measures, such as special tax districts. “Private” sources, meaning the Phase 1 area landowners-developers, should be constrained
from passing on the cost of their roadway improvements to their tenants—business or
residents—if at all feasible because these tenants will receive no direct financial benefit in
return.
As the County has pointed out in its brief to the RNAG, there are number of special vehicles for funding
both the “private” and “public” portion of all these options ranging from private in-kind contributions to
special tax service districts to gasoline, meals, and cigarette taxes. And, as we pointed out above, there
already is more than $300 million dollars annually available to the County from county, regional, state,
and federal sources to aid in constructing the roads Reston’s urban areas will need. The important
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Key Sources:
Reston Network Analysis Group website
Planning Commission Recommendations to the Board on Certain Tysons-related Activities, September
20, 2012
Reston Funding Plan: Potential Cost Allocations, FCDOT Presentation, February 22, 2016
Reston Funding Plan: Potential Sources of Revenue for Funding Reston Transportation Improvements,
FCDOT Presentation, December 14, 2015
Reston Network Analysis: Stakeholder Kick-Off Meeting, FCDOT Presentation, December 12, 2014
http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/fcdot/restonnetworkanalysis/advisorygroup.htmhttp://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/planning/tysons_docs/092012pc_rec_to_bos_final.pdfhttp://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/planning/tysons_docs/092012pc_rec_to_bos_final.pdfhttp://www.slideshare.net/fairfaxcounty/reston-funding-plan-potential-cost-allocationshttp://www.slideshare.net/fairfaxcounty/reston-funding-plan-58051681http://www.slideshare.net/fairfaxcounty/reston-funding-plan-58051681http://www.slideshare.net/fairfaxcounty/reston-network-analysis-kickoff-presentation?qid=64aff03d-f0f3-4bb6-b856-cd2ebed27a06&v=qf1&b=&from_search=2http://www.slideshare.net/fairfaxcounty/reston-network-analysis-kickoff-presentation?qid=64aff03d-f0f3-4bb6-b856-cd2ebed27a06&v=qf1&b=&from_search=2http://www.slideshare.net/fairfaxcounty/reston-funding-plan-58051681http://www.slideshare.net/fairfaxcounty/reston-funding-plan-58051681http://www.slideshare.net/fairfaxcounty/reston-funding-plan-potential-cost-allocationshttp://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/planning/tysons_docs/092012pc_rec_to_bos_final.pdfhttp://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/planning/tysons_docs/092012pc_rec_to_bos_final.pdfhttp://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/fcdot/restonnetworkanalysis/advisorygroup.htm
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APPENDIX A: Planning Commission Recommendations to the Board on Certain Tysons-related Activities, Tysons-wide Projects for Funding Purposes,
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APPENDIX B: 2009 County Forecast for Total Tysons Transportation Improvement Costs over 40 Years in 2009 Dollars
Prepared by FC DOT in 2009.
The following three tables break out the project details for the 2010-2030 and 2030-2050 timeframes in Tysons.
Timeframe Capital Costs Operating
Costs Transit Capital
Transit
Operating Roadways Tysons-wide Grid of Steets Capital Costs Operating Costs Tysons-wide
County-wide
Total
2010-2030 $5,299,000,000 $338,000,000 $46,000,000 $343,000,000 $369,000,000 $373,000,000 $742,000,000 $44,000,000 $145,000,000 $7,510,000,000 $7,699,000,000
2030-2050 $0 $656,000,000 $506,000,000 $360,000,000 $0 $0 $493,000,000 $4,854,000,000 $258,000,000 $2,015,000,000 $7,127,000,000
2010-2050 $5,299,000,000 $994,000,000 $552,000,000 $703,000,000 $369,000,000 $373,000,000 $1,235,000,000 $4,898,000,000 $403,000,000 $9,525,000,000 $14,826,000,000
Transit Capital $5,851,000,000 $10,749,000,000
Transit Operating $1,697,000,000 $2,100,000,000
Roadways $1,977,000,000 $1,977,000,000
TOTALComprehensive Plan Projects
(Transit--Metro/Bus) Roadway ProjectsProjects Beyond Comprehensive Plan County-wide Transit
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Project
# Transit Projects
Transit Project
Capital Cost
Aggregate
Transit Project
Roadway
Project1 Metrorail Silver Line Phase 1 (from West Falls Church to Wiehle Ave) $2,640,000,000 $44,000,000 -
2 Metrorail Silver Line Phase 2 (from Wiehle Ave to Rt 772/Ryan Rd in Loudoun County) $2,600,000,000 $39,000,000 -
3 Transit Development Plan (TDP) Service Improvements (Preliminary) $50,000,000 $197,000,000 -
3a Bus Based Circulator (based on Preliminary TDP) $9,000,000 $58,000,000
$5,299,000,000 $338,000,000 -
4 Extend Boone Blvd west from Rt. 123 to Ashgrove Lane - - $99,000,000
5 Extend Greensboro Drive west from Spring Hill Road to Rt. 7 - - $46,000,000
6 Widen Gallows Road from 4-6 lanes from Rt. 7 to Prosperity Avenue (2.56 miles) - - $68,000,000
7 Widen Leesburg Pike (Route 7) to 6 lanes between the Capital Beltway and I-66 - - $43,000,000
8 Widen Chain Bridge Road (Route 123) to 6 lanes from Old Courthouse Road to
- - $21,000,000
9 Widen Chain Bridge Road (Route 123) to 8 lanes between Route 7 and the
- - $27,000,000
10 Widen Magarity Road to 4 lanes between Lisle/Route 7 and Great Falls Street - - $40,000,000
11 Widen Leesburg Pike (Route 7) to 8 lanes between Chain Bridge Road (Route
- - $29,000,000
Removed New interchange at Rt. 7 and Westpark Drive/Gosnell Road - - $80,000,000
Removed New interchange at Rt. 7 and Gallows Road/International Drive - - $80,000,000
Removed New interchange at Rt. 123 and International Drive - - $80,000,000
- - $613,000,000- - -$240,000,000
$5,299,000,000 $338,000,000 $373,000,000
12 Local Streets (By 2030) - - $346,000,000
13 Collector Streets (By 2030) - - $248,000,000
14 Avenues (By 2030) - - $148,000,000
- - $742,000,000Total Grid of Streets Cost
Total Roadway Project CostsTotal Removed Project Costs
Total Adjusted Comprehensive Plan TysonsTransportation Project Costs
GRID OF STREETS (INCLUDING ENHANCED PEDESTRIAN AND BICYCLE CONNECTIVITY)
Order of Magnitude Planning Level Cost Estimates for Transportation Projects Serving Tysons 2010 - 2030
COMPREHENSIVE PLAN PROJECTS
Total Transit Project Costs
Roadway Projects
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15 Local/Regional Routes (based on preliminary TDP) $39,000,000 $295,000,000 -
16 Bus Based Circulator $7,000,000 $48,000,000 -
$46,000,000 $343,000,000 -
17 5C-I-495 Overpass at Tysons Corner Center - - $16,000,000
18 Extension of HOT ramp to inside I-495 - - $16,000,000
19 1D-Dulles Toll Road to Boone Blvd Extension - - $59,000,000
20 3B-Dulles Toll Road to Jones Branch Drive - - $33,000,000
21 2B-Dulles Toll Road to Greensboro Drive - - $24,000,000
22 I-495 Additional Lane (Outer Loop between Rt. 7 and I-66) - - $63,000,000
23 Dulles Toll Road Westbound Collector/Distributor - - $105,000,000
24 Dulles Toll Road Eastbound Collector/Distributor - - $53,000,000- - $369,000,000
$46,000,000 $343,000,000 $369,000,000
$5,345,000,000 $681,000,000 $1,484,000,000
25 Express Bus/BRT Transit Routes (By 2030) $38,000,000 $115,000,000 -
26 Feeder Bus Service to Rail Stations (By 2030) $6,000,000 $30,000,000 -
$44,000,000 $145,000,000 -
COUNTYWIDE TRANSIT PROJECTS
Total Countywide Transit Project Costs
Roadway Projects
Total Roadway Project Costs
Total Additional Projects Beyond Current Comprehensive Plan Costs
Total Cost Estimates for Transportation Projects Serving Tysons 2010 - 2030
(Excluding Countywide Transit Projects)
ADDITIONAL PROJECTS BEYOND CURRENT COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Transit Projects
Total Transit Project Costs
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Project#
Transit Projects Transit ProjectCapital Cost
Aggregate TransitProject Operating Costs
Roadway ProjectCapital Cost
27 Metrorail Silver Line (Phases 1 and 2) - 168,000,000$ -
28 Neighborhood Bus Service (By 2030) - 134,000,000$ -
29 Express Bus/BRT Transit Routes (By 2030) - 220,000,000$ -
30 Feeder Bus Service to Rail Stations (By 2030) - 134,000,000$ -
- 656,000,000$ -
31 Local Streets (Beyond 2030) - - 230,000,000$
32 Collector Streets (Beyond 2030) - - 165,000,000$33 Avenues (Beyond 2030) - - 98,000,000$
- - 493,000,000$
Transit Projects34 Streetcar Based Circulator 500,000,000$ 300,000,000$ -
35 Neighborhood Bus Service (Beyond 2030) 6,000,000$ 60,000,000$ -
506,000,000$ 360,000,000$ -
506,000,000$ 360,000,000$ -
506,000,000$ 1,016,000,000$ 493,000,000$
36 Express Bus/BRT Transit Routes (Beyond 2030) 21,000,000$ 100,000,000$ -37 Feeder Bus Service to Rail Stations (Beyond 203 6,000,000$ 60,000,000$ -38 Additional Rail Extension 2,500,000,000$ 75,000,000$ -39 Orange Line Metrorail Extension (from Vienna to 2,300,000,000$ 23,000,000$
40 2 Park and Ride Garages 27,000,000$ -
4,854,000,000$ 258,000,000$ -
ADDITIONAL PROJECTS BEYOND CURRENT COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Total Countywide Transit Project Costs
Total Transit Project Costs
Total Additional Projects Beyond Current Comprehen
Total Cost Estimates for Transportation Projects
COUNTYWIDE TRANSIT PROJECTS
Order of Magnitude Planning Level Cost Estimates for Transportation Projects Serving Tysons Beyond 2030(2009 dollars unless noted. Funding will be a mix of local, state, federal and private resources. A variety of financing mechanisms will need to
be utilized.)
EXISTING TRANSIT
Total Existing Transit Costs
GRID OF STREETS (INCLUDING ENHANCED PEDESTRIAN AND BICYCLE CONNECTIVITY)
Total Grid of Streets Cost
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