GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN
(Ministry of Climate Change)
Pakistan’s Climate Change Vulnerability
& Remedial Policy Measures
By: Muhammad Azim
(Deputy Director)
(20 May, 2015)
SEQUENCE
• Introduction
• Climate Situation & Vulnerability
• Pakistan Vulnerability to Climate Change Threats
• Pakistan’s Climate Change Initiatives
• National Climate Change Policy-2012 (Salient Feature)
• Implementation Mechanism
2
Climate Change Situation and Vulnerability (Based on IPCC Fifth Assessment Report-2013)
• 0.6oC increase in average Global temperature during the last
century; (2005 warmest year followed by 2007, 1998, 2002,
2003, 2006, 2010 etc.)
• Increase by 1.8-4.0oC projected over the 21st Century.
• Large changes (both, increases and decreases) of temperature
and precipitation in different world regions.
3
Climate Change Situation and Vulnerability (Contd.)
• Considerable increase in the frequency and intensity of
extreme climatic events (cyclonic storms, floods, droughts
etc.)
• Mean sea level has risen by 0.19m and will continue to rise
during the 21st century.
• Increase in the ocean acidification
• Global warming has also affected the global water cycle
4
Pakistan’s Vulnerability to Climate Change Threats
• Increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather
events i.e. erratic monsoon rains causing frequent and intense floods and drought
• Increased temperatures
• Sea level rise threatening coastal areas
• Intrusion of saline sea water into Indus Delta
• Impact on the water, food and energy security of the country
5
Pakistan’s Vulnerability to Climate Change Threats (Contd.)
The “vanishing” Himalayan glaciers
– Cover 17 % of the mountain area storing about 12,000 bcm of freshwater
– 15000 glaciers (feed Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra) –sustain and impact
about 10% of the total human population.
– The impacts of glacial melt are extremely far reaching and destructive and
signs quite clear
• The average rate of recession between 1985 and 2001 is about 23 m
per year – Gone up by 30% since last 10 years (ICIMOD)
• Total area of Himalayan glaciers will shrink from 500, 000 to 100,000
sq. Km (4/5th of resource could be lost) very soon.
• Outbreak and spread of Dengue all over Pakistan
6
Pakistan’s Vulnerability to Climate Change Threats (Contd.)
Period Global
(AR4, 2007) Pakistan
1901-2000 0.06 °C 0.06°C
1956-2005 0.128°C 0.16°C
1971-2005 – 0.26°C
1981-2005 0.177 °C 0.39°C
1991-2005 – 0.74°C
Global versus Pakistan – Decadal Mean Temperature Trends:
• The accelerated jumps in the mean temperature trends after 1950s over
Pakistan are much higher as compared to the global change, for example, the warming over Pakistan is twice as fast as the global mean change over the period 1981-2005
• The frequency and intensity of weather extremes in the period after 1991 is much higher than the period 1950-1990
7
Pakistan’s Vulnerability to Climate Change Threats (Contd.)
• 22.8 % area and 50 % population is at risk due to impact of Climate Change
• Country has suffered losses because of floods owing to Climate Change
during:
2010: US$ 10.06 billion
2011: US$ 3.07 billion
2012: US$ 1.87 billion
• Environmental degradation costs 6% of GDP i.e. Rs. 365 billion per annum
• German watch has ranked Pakistan amongst the TEN most vulnerable
countries consecutively since 2010.
8
Pakistan’s Vulnerability to Climate Change Threats (Contd.)
• Climate impacts are very real and menacingly showing their presence:
– Potentially risking 50% of the population
– Glacial retreat, floods, droughts and temp rise
• Climate Change in Pakistan is a direct threat to
– Food security
– Energy security
– Economic security
• Indirectly, it has the potential to be a security threat:
– A “Terrorism multiplier” triggered by climate refugees and economic deprivation
– A source for Cross-border conflict owing to a shared water resources - coming under extreme stress
9
10
Flood/Rain Extent - 10 Sep 2010
Flood/Rain Extent - 21 Sep 2010
Flood/Rain Extent - 16 Aug 2010
Flood/Rain Extent - 31 July 2010
Flood/Rain Extent - 27 Aug 2010
KARACHI
AFGHANISTAN
INDIA
IRAN
Warsak Dam
Tanda Dam
Khanpur Dam
Tarbela Dam
Mangla Dam
Chashma Barrage Rasool Barrage
Marala Headworks
Qadirabad
Trimmu Barrage Balloki Headworks
Sidhnai Headworks Taunsa Barrage
Islam Headworks
Punjnad Headworks
Guddu Barrage
Sukkur Barrage
Kotri Barrage
ISLAMABAD
QUETTA
LAHORE
Swat
Gilgit
CHINA
Country is prone to serious large-scale
natural as well as anthropogenic disaster
such as flood, droughts, tropical cyclones,
dust storms, fog episodes, landslides etc.
Pakistan’s Climate Change Initiatives
• GCISC established in 2003.
• Prime Minister’s Committee on Climate Change
established in 2006
• Planning Commission’s Task Force on Climate Change
established in 2008.
• National Climate Change Policy 2012
• Framework for Implementation of NCCP.
• Climate Change and Cities Initiative.
11
12
National Climate Change Policy-2012 (Salient Features)
Suggested Policy Measures:
• Capacity Building
• Institutional Strengthening
• Awareness Raising
• International & Regional Cooperation
• Finance
• Technology Transfer
• Implementation Mechanism
• Research and development
13
Policy Goal
To ensure that Climate Change is mainstreamed
in the economically and socially vulnerable
sectors of the economy and to steer Pakistan
towards climate resilient Development.
14
Responding to Climate Change
Two key ways to respond:
i. Adaptation measures
ii. Mitigation measures
15
Adaptation to Climate Change
Major sectors
• Water Resources
• Agriculture and Livestock
• Health
• Forestry & Biodiversity
• Disaster Preparedness
• Vulnerable ecosystems
16
Water Resources
Policy Measures:
i) Water Conservation Strategies
ii) Water management
iii) Capacity building
Agriculture and Livestock
Policy Measures:
i) Technology
ii) Resource Management
iii) Genetic modification
Policy Measures:
i) Forest Management
ii) Habitat conservation
iii) Community participation
Disaster Management Policy Measures: i. Forecasting and warning system ii. Preparedness iii. Management iv. Recovery and rehabilitation
Forestry and Biodiversity
17
Policy Measures
i) Monitoring and forecasting of
outbreak
ii) Plans and policies
iii) Training and capacity building
iv) Resource management
Health
18
19
Mitigation
KEY SECTORS
• Energy
• Transport
• Agriculture & Livestock
• Forestry
• Town Planning
• Industries
20
Energy
Policy Measures:
i) Energy mix
ii) Renewable energy
iii) Energy efficiency
iv) Energy conservation
Transport
Policy Measures:
i) Road Transport
ii) Mass transit system
iii) Fuel efficiency
21
Agriculture and Livestock Policy Measures:
i) Reduce GHG emissions from rice cultivation
ii) Reduce release of Nitrous Oxide from agricultural soils/ Nitrogenous fertilizer
iii) Reduce GHG emissions from enteric fermentation
iv) Manure management
Forestry Policy Measures:
i) Carbon sequestration
ii) Develop national REDD+ strategies
and programs
iii) Accessing carbon markets
Climate Finance
• Green Climate Fund
• Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
• Adaptation Fund
• Global Environmental Facility
• National Climate Change Fund/Facility
22
23
KEY STAKE HOLDERS
1.INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
• UN Organizations : UNFCCC , KP and IPCC
2.FEDERAL GOVERNMENT:
• Ministry of Climate Change Division: Policies and Programs
• Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Climate International Politics/ Negotiations
• Ministry of Planning , Development and Reforms: Mainstreaming Climate Change into Development Process/Plan.
• Ministry of Finance: Developing Linkage with International Finance Architecture
• Ministry of Science & Technology: Research & Development
• Ministry of Water & Power: Tapping Benefit of International Finances.
• Ministry of Food Security & Agriculture : Tapping Benefit of International Finances.
3. PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENTS:
• Implementation of National Climate Change Policy and Plans in an Integrated manner to report the National Status.
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KEY STAKE HOLDERS (Contd.)
4. PRIVATE SECTOR
Green Technology, Green Business
5. MEDIA
Awareness
6. ACADEMIA
Research
7. CIVIL SOCIETY:
Change in life style, Green Consumerism
BENEFICIARY : The Whole of Mankind
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• “Action Plan” for its implementation has been prepared.
• All relevant ministries, departments and agencies in process of
devising plans to implement the policy recommendations
relating to their respective sectors/sub-sectors.
Implementation Mechanism
26
Composition of National Climate Change Policy
Implementation Committee (NCCPIC)
– Minister of Climate Change at the Federal Level (Chair)
– Secretaries of Ministries responsible for Climate Change/ Planning and
Development / Foreign Affairs/ Science and Technology/ Industries and
Production/Finance/ Water and Power/ Food and Agriculture/ Health/
Defense;
Implementation Mechanism
27
• The “National and Provincial Climate Change Policy
Implementation Committees” meets biannually.
• The Provincial Committees report the status of implementation
of the Policy to the National Committee periodically.
• The National Committee report to the “Prime Minister’s
Committee on Climate Change” on a regular basis.
Implementation Mechanism
28
–Awareness
–Capacity and Technical Know-How
–Finances
CHALLENGES TO POLICY IMPLEMENTATION
29
18 May 2015
30
Thank You
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