Remaining Oil & Natural Gas Resources of New Mexico
Ron Broadhead
New Mexico Bureau of Geology & Mineral Resources
A division of New Mexico Tech
Key Questions
• How much extractable oil and gas is left in New Mexico?
• How long will production last?
Resource CategoriesResource category
Definition Confidence level
Proved reserves Already discovered mostly drilled
High
Undiscovered resources – productive trends
Undiscovered but along known trends
-undrilled
Medium
Undiscovered resources-
new trends in productive basins,
new basins
Undiscovered trends in well known
productive basins
New basins
(poorly known)
Undrilled
Low
Natural Gas
• Production history
• Reserves
• Resources
• How long?
Natural Gas Resources
Resource type
Gas (TCF) Source
Proved reserves 17.3 EIA/DOE
Undiscovered resources
51.2 USGS
Undiscovered resources
72.1 PGC
Total resource base
68.5-89.4
How long will this last at present rates of production
(1.6 TCF/year)?
Proved reserves 10.8 years
Undiscovered resources 32-45 years (providing estimated gas is explored for, discovered & brought online)
Production History, U.S. Gas
From Potential Gas Committee (2000)
Reserve Life Index
_Proved reserves_Annual production
Crude Oil
• Production history
• Reserves
• Resources
• How long?
Oil Resources
Resource type
Oil (MMBO) Source
Proved reserves 705 EIA/DOE
Undiscovered resources
776 USGS
Total resource base
1481
How long will this last at present rates of production
(67 MMBO/year)?
Proved reserves 10.5 years
Undiscovered resources 11.5 years (providing estimated oil is explored for, discovered & brought online)
Production History, U.S. Oil
First Conclusions
• The Reserve Life Indices for oil & gas have remained surprisingly stable over the last 20 to 30 years
• Oil and gas resources have been moved from the undiscovered category to the discovered category at a rate approximately equal to production
• Undiscovered resources have been underestimated
So how have oil & gas been added to the resource base to keep the Reserve Life Indices from falling through the floor?
Some notable examples…
Recovery enhancement
Waterflooding/pressure maintenance-Vacuum Grayburg San Andres reservoir
From current work on DOE/PUMPproject –Digital analysis & portfolioof oil reservoirs in Permian Basin
Redevelopment of old fieldse.g. Dagger Draw
Effect of Dagger Draw on NM Production
Additional resources through new playsBrushy Canyon discoveries
From current work on DOE/PUMPproject – Digital analysis & portfolioof oil reservoirs in Permian Basin
Additional resources through new unconventional gas
Other Emerging Possibilities
• Horizontal drilling in old fields (San Andres, Yeso Fms., SE NM)
• Unconventional gas sources (incl. shale gas, low K carbonates)
• New basin production (Raton coalbed methane, other areas)
Second ConclusionsWhat will it take to keep the decline in check?
• Renewal of old fields through redevelopment, EOR, etc.
• Discovery of new plays
• New sources of unconventional gas
• All of the above have their role
And above all…
Drill
Drill
Drill
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