Region wise market share across OEMs
BSE Auto vs. Sensex
Performance (%)
1m 3m 12m
Sensex -1.2% -7.2% -17.7%
BSE Auto -0.9% -11.9% -16.7%
Market data
BSE SENSEX 24243
Nifty 7369
BSE Auto 16596
Update
Date 3rd Mar 2016
MUKESH SARAF [email protected] +91 44 4344 0041
RAMAKRISHNAN SESHAN [email protected] +91 44 4344 0020Find Spark Research on Bloomberg (SPAK <go>),
Thomson First Call, Reuters Knowledge and Factset
Page 1
Some obvious and some not-so-obvious trends in region wise market share
While overall market share trends are largely known, we have herein examined how region wise market share trends
have played out in the past few years
Motorcycles: Notable decline in contribution of South Zone to overall volumes; while HMSI and Yamaha dented the
share of Bajaj, HMCL has largely managed to hold its own: Share of the South Zone in overall volumes declined 3ppt to
22% over FY11-9mFY16, offset by an increase in the contribution of the North and the East. HMSI (led by the West and South
Zones) and other OEMs including Yamaha (led by the South Zone) have been the biggest gainers of share increasing from 7%
to 14% and 4% to 9%, respectively over FY11-9mFY16. Bajaj lost a whopping 8ppt share (led by the West and the North)
during the period and stood at 18% for 9mFY16. While HMCL maintained share in the North and the East zones, due to relative
weak showing in the other zones, its overall market share reduced from 56% to 53% over FY11-9mFY16.
Scooters: While HMSI continues to the undisputed leader by market share, HMCL is putting up a good fight aided by
new launches in 3QFY16; TVS, counter-intuitively , is turning into a ‘Northern major‘ with appreciable share gains in
the region: Share of the West in overall scooter volumes declined 7ppt to 34% over FY11-9mFY16, which was offset by an
increase in the contribution of the North and the East Zones. While HMSI has gained significant pan-India market share,
increasing from 43% to 57% over FY11-9mFY16, TVS’s share has reduced from 22% to 16% over this period, TVS has lost
market share across zones except the North Zone. HMCL has maintained its share during this period at ~15%.
Post new scooter launches in 3QFY16, HMCL has gained significant market share across zones, led by the West and the North.
Its share for 3QFY16 stood at 20% against 15% for 9mFY16.
MHCV-Goods: AL on course to establish itself as a truly pan-India player characterized by well-rounded market share
gains: Share of the North Zone in the overall market has steadily increased by 4ppt over FY11- 9mFY16, while the share of the
South reduced by 2ppt. Ashok Leyland (AL) has gained significant share from Tata Motors (TTMT), (mkt. share of 24% in FY11
to 30% in 9mFY16), with intensified mgmt. focus on marketing efforts and enhancing the dealer network. AL has gained share,
not just in its traditional strong-hold – the South Zone, but across zones, indicating robust quality of growth. Conversely, TTMT
has lost market share across zones, importantly in the North and West Zones.
PVs: MSIL and Hyundai steadily extend market share gains; Honda sustains its sizeable improvement in share since
FY14; TTMT the biggest loser of market share: MSIL and Hyundai, the major players in the market have marginally improved
their share across zones, increasing the overall share to 53% and to 21% respectively, for 9mFY16. Honda too has seen an
increase in share from 3% to 9% from FY11-9mFY16, led by the North and South while TTMT lost share across zones,
reducing from 13% to 8%.. In UVs, M&M lost significant share reducing from 53% to 37% over FY11 to 9mFY16, while MSIL
increased share from 2% to 15%.
Stock calls: We believe that the: impact of the infra cess imposed vide the Budget would not have a material impact on
volumes of MSIL with higher proportion of petrol vehicles (1% cess) in its portfolio however, it could have an impact on M&M’s
due to more proportion of diesel vehicles in its portfolio (2.5% cess). We believe that recent appreciation of the yen could have
a negative impact on the margin of MSIL, which would be partially offset by appreciation of the USD and price hikes announced
(net impact on margin ~100bps). Retain BUY on MSIL (TP of Rs. 4,290) and revise rating on M&M to ADD with TP of 1,340.
Remain positive on TTMT (Buy; TP of Rs. 490) backed by expectations strong JLR volumes; retain ADD on AL with TP of Rs.
95, as we believe that the positives of share gain and volume growth are factored in the CMP.
Remain positive on HMCL, backed by the growth in scooter volumes and expectations of rural growth(Rating BUY; TP of Rs.
3,000), maintain our calls on TVS (SELL; TP of Rs. 215) and on Bajaj Auto (ADD: TP of Rs. 2,620)
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16
BSE Auto Sensex
B
Region wise market share across OEMs
Motorcycles
Region wise market share across OEMs
Page 3
HMSI and others, including Yamaha eat particularly into Bajaj’s market share; HMCL too suffers
Source: Company, Spark Capital Research
South zone witnesses a sharp decline in share of volumes, North and East Zone gain
Source: Company, Spark Capital Research
North and West Zones are the biggest markets; HMCL leads the segment by a significant majority; Bajaj losing out to HMSI
25% 24% 24% 26% 27% 27%
16% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18%
34% 35% 35% 35% 33% 33%
25% 27% 26% 23% 23% 22%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
North Zone East Zone West Zone South Zone
26% 26% 25% 20% 17% 18%
56% 57% 53%52% 53% 53%
7% 8% 12%16% 16% 14%
7% 6% 6% 5% 6% 7%
4% 4% 5% 7% 8% 9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
Bajaj Hero Honda TVS Others
Motorcycles
Region wise market share across OEMs
Page 4
HMCL continues to be strong in the North; HMSI, while growing in North, posing a greater challenge to HMCL in West
Source: Company, Spark Capital Research
Maharashtra Gujarat
Baja
j
Rajasthan M.P.
HM
CL
HM
SI
29%
18%
15%
17%
19%
16%
13%
13%
26%
21%
19%
20%
26%
16%
12%
14%
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
50%
46%
45%
43%
68%
62%
63%
65%
57%
51%
52%
52%
60%
56%
59%
56%
11%
26%
28%
26%
4%
10%
11%
11%
5%
15%
17%
15%
10%
21%
22%
22%
25% 24% 22% 18% 15% 16%
58% 60% 57%54% 54% 54%
8% 8% 13%18% 20% 19%
6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
3% 3% 3% 5% 6% 7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
Bajaj Hero Honda TVS Others
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
Baja
jH
MC
LH
MS
IFY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
U.P. Haryana
27%
23%
18%
19%
28%
24%
22%
26%
60%
59%
59%
57%
61%
54%
56%
53%
4%
10%
10%
10%
3%
9%
10%
9%
31% 30% 30% 25% 22% 22%
55% 56% 54%53% 54% 54%
4% 5% 7%9% 10% 9%
6% 5% 5% 6% 7% 8%
4% 4% 4% 6% 6% 7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
Bajaj Hero Honda TVS Others
West Zone : HMSI is growing in strength at its ‘home-ground’ at the expense of primarily Bajaj. HMCL too falters, but maintains a significant lead
North Zone : HMSI’s growth has had little impact on HMCL which consolidates its dominance in the North; Bajaj the biggest loser
Motorcycles
Region wise market share across OEMs
Page 5
HMCL loses market share in the South, while sustaining leadership in the East
Source: Company, Spark Capital Research
A.P. Tamil Nadu
Baja
j
Karnataka
HM
CL
HM
SI
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
23%
15%
13%
17%
20%
21%
17%
23%
30%
23%
20%
23%
55%
51%
52%
52%
47%
43%
39%
41%
49%
44%
44%
43%
10%
22%
21%
17%
10%
15%
20%
11%
8%
18%
19%
15%
Baja
jH
MC
LH
MS
IFY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
WB. Jharkhand
24% 25% 24% 20% 17% 20%
50% 49% 46%44% 45% 43%
10% 10% 16%19% 20% 16%
10% 9% 7%6% 6% 6%
6% 7% 7% 11% 12% 14%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
Bajaj Hero Honda TVS Others
36%
19%
16%
14%
17%
12%
11%
12%
20%
11%
10%
10%
22%
14%
12%
11%
43%
52%
54%
53%
67%
63%
62%
63%
65%
65%
63%
63%
63%
64%
67%
67%
10%
15%
14%
13%
8%
17%
18%
14%
5%
16%
18%
15%
5%
16%
18%
15%
24% 22% 21% 16% 14% 13%
60% 61% 59%57% 59% 60%
6% 8% 11%16% 14% 11%
6% 5% 5% 5% 6% 8%
4% 5% 4% 6% 7% 7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
Bajaj Hero Honda TVS Others
South Zone : TVS and HMCL cede ground to HMSI and others (Suzuki); Bajaj pulls back share from HMSI and HMCL in 9mFY16
East Zone : HMCL stands its ground; HMSI significantly eats away at Bajaj’s share
Motorcycles
Orissa. Bihar
Region wise market share across OEMs
State FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 1HFY15 9mFY16
U.P. 13% 13% 13% 14% 16% 15%
Maharashtra 12% 12% 11% 11% 10% 10%
Andhra Pradesh 8% 8% 8% 8% 9% 8%
Rajasthan 6% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8%
Madhya Pradesh 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
Tamil Nadu 9% 9% 9% 7% 7% 6%
Karnataka 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
Gujarat 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 6%
Bihar 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5%
West Bengal 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 5%
Punjab 4% 4% 3% 4% 4% 4%
Orissa 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Haryana 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Jharkhand 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3%
Chattisgarh 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2%
Others 11% 9% 11% 9% 8% 9%
The pan-India market share is dominated by Northern and Western states
Motorcycles
Region wise market share across OEMs
Bajaj FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
North 29% 29% 30% 32% 35% 33%
East 15% 12% 13% 13% 14% 13%
West 33% 33% 32% 31% 28% 29%
South 23% 26% 26% 24% 23% 25%
Region mix of OEM volumes
HMCL FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
North 25% 24% 24% 26% 27% 28%
East 17% 15% 16% 17% 19% 21%
West 36% 37% 37% 37% 34% 34%
South 23% 24% 23% 20% 20% 18%
HMSI FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
North 14% 15% 13% 15% 16% 17%
East 14% 14% 14% 16% 14% 15%
West 37% 36% 37% 41% 41% 44%
South 35% 35% 36% 28% 29% 24%
TVS FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
North 20% 21% 22% 27% 31% 32%
East 14% 12% 13% 16% 17% 22%
West 28% 28% 33% 31% 29% 26%
South 38% 40% 32% 26% 24% 20%
Motorcycles
Region wise market share across OEMs
Trends in market share across major states
Trends in market share across major states
State
Share in
total vol.
(9mFY16)
Bajaj HMCL HMSI TVS Others
FY11 FY14 H1FY159m
FY16FY11 FY14 H1FY15
9m
FY16FY11 FY14
H1
FY15
9m
FY16FY11 FY14
H1
FY15
9m
FY16FY11 FY14
H1
FY15
9m
FY16
U.P. 15% 27% 23% 18% 19% 60% 59% 59% 57% 4% 10% 10% 10% 7% 5% 9% 10% 2% 3% 3% 4%
A.P 8% 23% 15% 13% 17% 55% 51% 52% 52% 10% 22% 21% 17% 8% 5% 5% 5% 4% 7% 8% 9%
Mah. 10% 29% 18% 15% 17% 50% 46% 45% 43% 11% 26% 28% 26% 5% 3% 3% 3% 5% 8% 9% 11%
Raj. 8% 19% 16% 13% 13% 68% 62% 63% 65% 4% 10% 11% 11% 8% 8% 9% 6% 2% 4% 4% 4%
Bihar 5% 22% 14% 12% 11% 63% 64% 67% 67% 5% 12% 11% 9% 7% 5% 6% 8% 3% 4% 4% 5%
M.P 6% 26% 21% 19% 20% 57% 51% 52% 52% 5% 15% 17% 15% 10% 9% 10% 10% 2% 4% 3% 4%
W.B. 5% 36% 19% 16% 14% 43% 52% 54% 53% 10% 15% 14% 13% 6% 8% 9% 12% 5% 7% 7% 8%
T.N. 6% 20% 21% 17% 23% 47% 43% 39% 41% 10% 15% 20% 11% 17% 9% 10% 9% 7% 12% 14% 17%
Kar. 6% 30% 23% 20% 23% 49% 44% 44% 43% 8% 18% 19% 15% 8% 6% 6% 7% 5% 10% 11% 13%
Gujarat 6% 26% 16% 12% 14% 60% 56% 59% 56% 10% 21% 22% 22% 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 5% 6% 7%
Orissa 3% 17% 12% 11% 12% 67% 63% 62% 63% 8% 17% 18% 14% 5% 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 5% 6%
Haryana 3% 28% 24% 22% 26% 61% 54% 56% 53% 3% 9% 10% 9% 5% 6% 6% 6% 3% 7% 7% 7%
Jkhand. 2% 20% 11% 10% 10% 65% 65% 63% 63% 5% 16% 18% 15% 6% 4% 5% 6% 3% 3% 4% 5%
Motorcycles
Region wise market share across OEMs
Scooters
Region wise market share across OEMs
Page 10
HMSI, at the numero uno position, has been steadily increasing share backed by new scooter launches, at the cost of TVS and Others (Suzuki)
Source: Company, Spark Capital Research
North and East Zone witness an increased contribution to overall scooter volumes; Contribution of the West drops significantly
Source: Company, Spark Capital Research
West and South Zones are the biggest markets; HMSI leads the segment by a significant majority
19% 18% 18% 20% 20% 21%
8% 8% 9% 10% 9% 11%
41% 39% 36% 36% 34% 34%
33% 34% 37% 35% 37% 34%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
North Zone East Zone West Zone South Zone
16% 16% 19% 19% 16% 15%
43% 47% 49% 53% 55% 57%
22% 20% 14%13% 16% 16%0% 0% 3%5% 6% 5%
19% 17% 15% 10% 7% 7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
Hero Honda TVS Yamaha Others
Scooters
Region wise market share across OEMs
Page 11
HMSI leads by a distance in the West and South zones
20% 22% 21% 20% 16% 14%
41%47% 51% 57% 60% 63%
19%14% 10%
10% 14% 13%
20% 17% 17% 11% 8% 8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
Hero Honda TVS Yamaha Others
Source: Company, Spark Capital Research
HM
CL
HM
SI
TV
S
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
22%
20%
14%
14%
17%
16%
15%
16%
17%
23%
22%
20%
14%
22%
16%
19%
36%
54%
59%
59%
42%
62%
64%
63%
56%
58%
58%
58%
44%
56%
58%
55%
21%
13%
16%
18%
17%
5%
10%
12%
16%
13%
15%
15%
23%
13%
18%
19%
Maharashtra Gujarat Rajasthan M.P.
HM
CL
HM
SI
TV
SFY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
8%
12%
10%
11%
15%
22%
18%
16%
9%
11%
9%
9%
16%
20%
17%
15%
29%
31%
40%
35%
36%
52%
57%
62%
48%
55%
56%
59%
48%
43%
45%
51%
50%
37%
32%
35%
24%
13%
15%
13%
21%
13%
17%
17%
17%
10%
10%
7%
Tamil Nadu A.P. Karnataka Kerala
11% 10% 15% 16% 13% 12%
39% 42%42% 45% 49% 54%
31% 31% 23% 19% 20% 17%0% 0% 4% 9% 10% 8%19% 18% 16% 11% 9% 9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
Hero Honda TVS Yamaha Others
West Zone: HMSI in its largest zone by volumes, has gained market share from all OEMs without exception; HMCL has lost share only in Mah. amongst major
states
South Zone: No longer TVS’ alley, HMSI has stolen significant market share from TVS and others; HMCL stagnates
Scooters
Region wise market share across OEMs
Page 12
HMCL loses market share in the North, HMSI sustains leadership in the East
12% 11% 15% 19% 18% 15%
61% 65%65%
65% 62%61%
11% 10% 7%8% 13% 17%
17% 15% 11% 7% 5% 5%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
Hero Honda TVS Yamaha Others
31% 29% 34% 28% 24% 24%
28% 35%35% 49%
48% 51%
22%19% 13%
11% 14% 12%0% 0% 6%7% 10% 9%19% 16%
11%5% 4% 4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
Hero Honda TVS Yamaha Others
Source: Company, Spark Capital Research
HM
CL
HM
SI
TV
S
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
18%
21%
18%
15%
11%
22%
21%
17%
51%
63%
59%
59%
58%
63%
59%
61%
17%
11%
18%
19%
10%
7%
14%
18%
U.P. Punjab
HM
CL
HM
SI
TV
SFY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
W.B. Bihar
27%
28%
24%
25%
30%
34%
29%
24%
32%
45%
47%
49%
28%
44%
46%
52%
27%
17%
17%
14%
22%
13%
14%
12%
North Zone: TVS has made significant inroads in market share; HMCL squanders the advantage of a strong MC presence in the North; HMSI dominates
East Zone : Yamaha has gained appreciable market share in this region, Suzuki has been the biggest loser; while TVS and HMCL have lost significant share
Scooters
Region wise market share across OEMs
State FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 1HFY15 9mFY16
Maharashtra 17% 17% 15% 15% 13% 14%
Tamil Nadu 11% 11% 11% 10% 11% 10%
Karnataka 9% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9%
Gujarat 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 9%
Andhra Pradesh 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8%
Kerala 6% 7% 10% 9% 9% 8%
U.P. 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7%
Punjab 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
Delhi 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4%
Rajasthan 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Madhya Pradesh 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
West Bengal 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3%
Others 15% 16% 14% 16% 14% 15%
The pan-India market share is dominated by Western and Southern states
Scooters
Region wise market share across OEMs
HMCL FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
North 14% 12% 14% 19% 22% 20%
East 15% 14% 16% 14% 14% 17%
West 49% 53% 40% 38% 34% 36%
South 22% 21% 30% 29% 30% 27%
Region mix of OEM volumes
HMSI FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
North 26% 25% 24% 24% 22% 22%
East 5% 6% 6% 9% 8% 10%
West 39% 39% 37% 38% 37% 35%
South 30% 30% 32% 29% 33% 33%
TVS FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
North 9% 10% 9% 11% 17% 22%
East 8% 8% 8% 9% 8% 8%
West 36% 29% 25% 28% 29% 33%
South 47% 54% 58% 52% 46% 37%
Yamaha FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
North 0% 0% 15% 8% 8% 11%
East 0% 0% 16% 15% 17% 19%
West 0% 0% 22% 11% 10% 15%
South 0% 0% 47% 66% 65% 54%
Scooters
Region wise market share across OEMs
Page 15
Trends in market share across major states for Scooter OEMs
State
Share in
total vol.
(9mFY16
)
HMCL HMSI TVS Yamaha Others
FY11 FY14H1
FY15
9m
FY16FY11 FY14
H1
FY15
9m
FY16FY11 FY14
H1
FY15
9m
FY16FY11 FY14
H1
FY15
9m
FY16FY11 FY14
H1
FY15
9m
FY16
Mah.. 11% 22% 20% 14% 14% 36% 54% 59% 59% 21% 13% 16% 18% - 2% 2% 3% 21% 11% 9% 7%
T.N. 11% 8% 12% 10% 11% 29% 31% 40% 35% 50% 37% 32% 35% - 12% 13% 13% 13% 8% 5% 6%
A.P. 9% 15% 22% 18% 16% 36% 52% 57% 62% 24% 13% 15% 13% - 3% 3% 3% 25% 10% 7% 7%
Kar.. 9% 9% 11% 9% 9% 48% 55% 56% 59% 21% 13% 17% 17% - 5% 6% 5% 22% 16% 12% 11%
Gujarat 9% 17% 16% 15% 16% 42% 62% 64% 63% 17% 5% 10% 12% - 1% 2% 2% 24% 16% 9% 7%
Kerala 9% 16% 20% 17% 15% 48% 43% 45% 51% 17% 10% 10% 7% - 15% 17% 13% 19% 12% 11% 14%
U.P. 7% 18% 21% 18% 15% 51% 63% 59% 59% 17% 11% 18% 19% - 2% 3% 3% 14% 3% 2% 3%
Punjab 5% 11% 22% 21% 17% 58% 63% 59% 61% 10% 7% 14% 18% - 2% 3% 1% 21% 6% 3% 4%
Raj. 4% 17% 23% 22% 20% 56% 58% 58% 58% 16% 13% 15% 15% - 1% 1% 1% 11% 5% 4% 6%
W.B. 4% 27% 28% 24% 25% 32% 45% 47% 49% 27% 17% 17% 14% - 8% 10% 9% 14% 2% 2% 3%
M.P. 3% 14% 22% 16% 19% 44% 56% 58% 55% 23% 13% 18% 19% - 1% 1% 2% 19% 8% 7% 5%
Source: Industry, SIAM, Spark Capital Research
Scooters
Region wise market share across OEMs
Page 16
Trends in market share across major states for Scooter OEMs
State
Share in
total vol.
(9mFY16)
HMCL HMSI Yamaha TVS Others
1Q 2Q 3Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
Mah. 11% 11% 11% 18% 63% 60% 55% 3% 4% 2% 15% 19% 18% 8% 7% 6%
T.N. 11% 8% 7% 13% 44% 47% 46% 11% 14% 6% 31% 28% 31% 6% 5% 4%
A.P. 9% 8% 8% 11% 72% 69% 67% 2% 2% 2% 13% 16% 15% 5% 5% 4%
Kar.. 9% 8% 5% 14% 61% 60% 56% 5% 7% 3% 15% 17% 19% 12% 12% 9%
Gujarat 9% 13% 13% 21% 65% 66% 59% 2% 3% 2% 11% 12% 12% 9% 7% 6%
Kerala 9% 15% 12% 19% 49% 49% 55% 15% 17% 6% 6% 8% 6% 15% 14% 14%
U.P. 7% 17% 11% 17% 59% 62% 58% 2% 4% 3% 19% 20% 19% 3% 3% 3%
Punjab 5% 14% 16% 23% 65% 62% 54% 1% 1% 0% 17% 17% 19% 4% 4% 4%
Raj. 4% 17% 17% 25% 64% 63% 50% 1% 1% 1% 12% 13% 19% 5% 5% 6%
W.B. 4% 23% 22% 29% 50% 48% 48% 11% 14% 4% 13% 13% 16% 3% 3% 3%
M.P. 3% 18% 12% 24% 58% 61% 49% 1% 2% 2% 16% 20% 20% 6% 5% 5%
Source: Industry, SIAM, Spark Capital Research
Scooters
Region wise market share across OEMs
North Zone Market share : HMCL gains appreciably impacting HMSI West Zone market share: HMCL registers strong gains denting HMSI
East Zone market share: Similar story pans out South Zone: HMCL gains market share primarily from Yamaha
13% 12%19%
64% 63%56%
2% 4% 2%
16% 17% 17%
5% 5% 5%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16
HMCL HMSI Yamaha TVS Others
23% 20%29%
51% 52%51%
10% 13% 4%12% 11% 12%4% 4% 4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16
HMCL HMSI Yamaha TVS Others
14% 13%21%
63% 62%54%
2% 3% 2%
13% 15% 16%
8% 7% 6%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16
HMCL HMSI Yamaha TVS Others
11% 9%17%
54% 54%54%
8% 11%4%
17% 17% 18%
10% 9% 8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16
HMCL HMSI Yamaha TVS Others
Impact of HMCL’s new scooter launches in 3QFY16 on market share
Scooters
Region wise market share across OEMs
Significant increase in overall market share in 3QFY16 on the back of the new scooter launches by HMCL
Source: Company, Spark Capital Research
Impact of HMCL’s new scooter launches in 3QFY16 on market share
14% 12%20%
58% 58%54%
5% 7% 3%15% 16% 16%
8% 7% 6%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16
HMCL HMSI Yamaha TVS Others
The Duet and the Maestro Edge, HMCL’s maiden scooter launches post the 110cc Pleasure (revamped-Apr14), contend in the largest, and most
competitive, 90cc – 125 cc scooter segment, where HMSI dominates with a leading market share.
These scooters, introduced in Oct15 and Nov15, had a staggered launch, key markets to start with, followed by a steady roll-out.
Basis our interactions with scooter dealers prior to the launch, lack of new scooter launches was stated as a primary reason behind HMCL losing
market share
Also, the Duet – the first full-metal body, maiden unisex scooter from the Hero stable, enabled HMCL tap a larger population and an important
durability conscious market, which was hitherto unaddressed by HMCL.
Basis a solid reception to both the new launches, HMCL has gained significant market share across zones, primarily from HMSI
Scooters
Region wise market share across OEMs
MHCV - Goods
Region wise market share across OEMs
TTMT has lost 10ppt market share during FY11-9mFY16; AL, in particular, has made significant inroads in market share beginning FY13
Source: Company, Spark Capital Research
24% 21% 24% 23% 26% 30%
66%65% 57% 59% 58%
56%
8% 12%14% 13% 11% 10%
2% 3% 6% 6% 5% 4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
Ashok Leyland Tata Motors VECV Others
Page 20
Share of the North Zone has increased by 4ppt over FY11-9mFY16, while the South Zone has de-grown 2ppt over the same period
Source: Company, Spark Capital Research
North and West Zones dominate the segment; AL has relentlessly chipped away at TTMT’s share beginning FY13
36% 39% 39% 37% 36% 35%
24% 22% 23% 25% 26% 28%
23% 23% 24% 20% 22% 21%
17% 16% 14% 17% 16% 16%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
West Zone North Zone South Zone East Zone
MHCV-Goods
Region wise market share across OEMs
16% 13% 16% 16% 16% 20%
74% 73% 65% 63% 66% 65%
9% 12%14% 14% 13% 11%
1% 2% 5% 6% 5% 4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
Ashok Leyland Tata Motors VECV Others
23% 19% 23% 23% 25% 29%
69%69% 60% 61% 61% 58%
7% 11%13% 12% 10% 10%
1% 1% 4% 4% 4% 3%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
Ashok Leyland Tata Motors VECV Others
Page 21
Ashok Leyland and VECV have created a considerable incision in Tata’s market share in North and West
Source: Company, Spark Capital Research
Maharashtra Gujarat Rajasthan M.P.
24%
24%
30%
33%
18%
20%
19%
28%
28%
19%
22%
23%
24%
31%
28%
36%
Ash
ok
Le
yla
nd
68%
57%
53%
50%
67%
58%
59%
50%
71%
75%
74%
72%
69%
54%
59%
55%
Tata
Mo
tors
Haryana U.P. Punjab
Ash
ok
Le
yla
nd
29%
23%
23%
10%
10%
12%
16%
14%
12%
16%
18%
21%
Tata
Mo
tors
57%
51%
61%
75%
83%
72%
69%
69%
80%
65%
70%
67%
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
West Zone : Though TTMT continues to lead; AL has gained significant market share in the zone particularly through MP, Gujarat and Maharashtra in 9mFY16
North Zone : AL registered major market share gains in 9mFY16 through Punjab; TTMT leads the zone comfortably
MHCV-Goods
Region wise market share across OEMs
12% 10% 14% 17% 18% 20%
87% 87% 78% 74% 75% 74%
0% 1% 5% 5% 5% 3%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
Ashok Leyland Tata Motors VECV Others
Page 22
Ashok Leyland maintains dominance in the South, while Tata Motors leads by a distance in the East
Source: Company, Spark Capital Research
61%
48%
60%
68%
35%
28%
28%
37%
43%
36%
40%
52%
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
Ash
ok
Le
yla
nd
28%
27%
21%
19%
49%
45%
44%
39%
44%
38%
37%
32%
Tata
Mo
tors
West Bengal Orissa
Tamil Nadu Karnataka A.P.
Ash
ok
Le
yla
nd
13%
22%
23%
23%
21%
17%
15%
23%
Tata
Mo
tors
84%
73%
73%
72%
79%
74%
75%
71%
45% 40% 37% 36%44%
53%
36%33%
31% 35%32%
28%
13%19% 22% 21% 18%
14%
6% 8% 9% 8% 6% 4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
Ashok Leyland Tata Motors VECV Others
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
South Zone : AL has clear majority in its home ground, gaining share from both VECV and TTMT; across AP, TN and Karnataka
East Zone : AL consistently chipping away at TTMT’s market share, with significant gains in WB and Orissa
MHCV-Goods
Region wise market share across OEMs
Industry FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 1HFY15 9mFY16
Maharashtra 14% 15% 15% 14% 13% 13%
Haryana 5% 4% 4% 6% 8% 9%
Rajasthan 8% 8% 7% 7% 8% 9%
Tamil Nadu 9% 9% 8% 6% 9% 8%
Gujarat 7% 8% 9% 8% 8% 7%
U.P. 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7%
Andhra Pradesh 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 7%
West Bengal 6% 6% 6% 7% 6% 6%
Karnataka 4% 4% 6% 6% 6% 5%
Delhi 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5%
Madhya Pradesh 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4%
Chattisgarh 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Orissa 3% 2% 1% 3% 3% 3%
Punjab 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2%
Jharkhand 4% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2%
Others 13% 13% 14% 13% 10% 10%
The pan-India market share is dominated by Northern and Western states
MHCV-Goods
Region wise market share across OEMs
Ashok
LeylandFY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
North 15% 14% 16% 18% 16% 18%
East 8% 7% 8% 13% 11% 10%
West 34% 36% 38% 37% 35% 34%
South 42% 43% 38% 32% 38% 37%
TATA
MotorsFY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
North 27% 25% 26% 27% 30% 32%
East 23% 21% 19% 22% 20% 21%
West 37% 42% 41% 39% 38% 37%
South 13% 12% 13% 12% 12% 11%
VECV FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
North 28% 23% 23% 28% 29% 30%
East 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4%
West 32% 37% 35% 34% 32% 36%
South 37% 37% 39% 34% 35% 30%
Region wise sales of major OEMs
MHCV-Goods
Region wise market share across OEMs
Trends in market share in major states (contributing ~75% of overall volumes in 9mFY16) for the last five years
State
Share in
overall
volumes %
(9mFY16)
Ashok Leyland Tata Motors VECV Others
FY11 FY14 1HFY15 9mFY16 FY11 FY14 1HFY15 9mFY16 FY11 FY14 1HFY15 9mFY16 FY11 FY14 1HFY15 9mFY16
Maharashtra 12% 24% 24% 30% 33% 68% 57% 53% 50% 8% 14% 12% 14% 1% 5% 5% 3%
Tamil Nadu 9% 61% 48% 60% 68% 28% 27% 21% 19% 9% 17% 13% 10% 3% 8% 5% 3%
Haryana 11% 29% 23% 23% 10% 57% 51% 61% 75% 13% 19% 13% 12% 0% 6% 4% 3%
Gujarat 7% 18% 20% 19% 28% 67% 58% 59% 50% 13% 18% 18% 18% 1% 4% 4% 4%
Rajasthan 8% 28% 19% 22% 23% 71% 75% 74% 72% 1% 3% 2% 3% 0% 3% 2% 1%
U.P. 6% 10% 12% 16% 14% 83% 72% 69% 69% 7% 12% 11% 13% 1% 4% 4% 5%
West Bengal 6% 13% 22% 23% 23% 84% 73% 73% 72% 3% 3% 2% 3% 1% 2% 2% 2%
Karnataka 4% 35% 28% 28% 37% 49% 45% 44% 39% 13% 21% 21% 19% 3% 7% 7% 5%
A.P. 7% 43% 36% 40% 52% 44% 38% 37% 32% 11% 21% 20% 13% 2% 4% 3% 3%
M.P. 4% 24% 31% 28% 36% 69% 54% 59% 55% 6% 10% 9% 8% 1% 5% 3% 2%
Punjab 2% 12% 16% 18% 21% 80% 65% 70% 67% 7% 10% 7% 7% 2% 8% 5% 5%
MHCV-Goods
Region wise market share across OEMs
Passenger Cars
Region wise market share across OEMs
Page 27
Market share is evenly spread between the North, East and South Zones; Maruti upholds overall lead, Tata biggest loser
3% 3% 4% 7% 8% 9%19% 20% 21%
21% 23% 21%
50% 44%47%
50% 52% 53%
13%14% 7%
6%5% 5%
15%19% 21%
15% 12% 11%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
Honda Hyundai Maruti Tata Motors Others
31% 31% 32% 32% 30% 30%
10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11%
31% 31% 29% 29% 30% 30%
27% 28% 29% 29% 29% 29%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
North Zone East Zone West Zone South Zone
West and North remain the largest markets, closely followed by the South; Zone wise share in overall volumes has remained largely stable
While MSIL and Hyundai have marginally grown market shares; Honda has usurped significant market share from TTMT
Source: Company, Spark Capital Research
Passenger cars
Region wise market share across OEMs
Page 28
While Maruti continues to be head and shoulders above competition, Hyundai is fast chipping away esp. in the West
Source: Company, Spark Capital Research
Maru
tiH
yu
nd
ai
U.P Delhi Haryana Punjab
21%
23%
24%
21%
25%
24%
21%
20%
22%
24%
25%
25%
16%
20%
16%
22%
53%
51%
53%
57%
46%
46%
50%
51%
57%
52%
51%
50%
55%
55%
60%
55%
Maharashtra Gujarat
Maru
tiH
yu
nd
ai
17%
21%
24%
20%
23%
26%
29%
28%
15%
21%
23%
24%
14%
19%
22%
25%
Rajasthan M.P.
3% 3% 4% 8% 9% 10%
21% 23% 23%23% 22% 22%
53% 46%48%
52% 55% 56%
9%10% 5%
3% 3% 3%13% 18% 20% 13% 11% 8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
Honda Hyundai Maruti Tata Motors Others
4% 3% 5% 8% 8% 10%18% 20% 21%
22% 25% 24%
49% 43%47%
49%50% 52%
15%14% 8%
6%5% 5%
14% 19% 19% 15% 12% 9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
Honda Hyundai Maruti Tata Motors Others
44%
46%
47%
49%
50%
45%
47%
49%
59%
56%
58%
57%
51%
54%
56%
55%
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
North Zone: Honda, in particular, and MSIL have gained market share from TTMT and other OEMs
West Zone: Both Honda and Hyundai have gained share at the expense of Other OEMs and TTMT; while Hyundai has gained market share across major states,
MSIL has gained market share particularly in Mah. and MP
Passenger cars
Region wise market share across OEMs
Page 29
South is proving to be Maruti’s Achilles’ heel, courtesy inroads made by Honda and Hyundai
1% 2% 3% 5% 5% 6%18% 20% 22% 21% 23% 22%
48% 46%51% 54% 58% 59%
18% 17%9%
7%6% 5%15% 15% 15% 12% 9% 8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
Honda Hyundai Maruti Tata Motors Others
2% 2% 3% 7% 8% 9%17% 17% 18%
19% 21% 19%
50%43% 44%
46%49% 49%
15%16% 9%
9%6% 8%
16% 22% 25% 19% 15% 15%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
Honda Hyundai Maruti Tata Motors Others
Source: Company, Spark Capital Research
Maru
tiH
yu
nd
ai
Kerala Karnataka Tamil Nadu A.P.
Maru
tiH
yu
nd
ai
14%
19%
19%
15%
19%
19%
23%
21%
15%
18%
21%
18%
20%
19%
22%
21%
62%
59%
60%
62%
47%
39%
43%
42%
41%
43%
43%
43%
46%
41%
47%
46%
17%
22%
26%
24%
15%
19%
21%
23%
47%
51%
53%
55%
41%
45%
48%
55%
West Bengal Orissa
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
FY11
FY14
1HFY15
9mFY16
South Zone: The only zone where MSIL has lost market share, albeit marginally; Honda is the biggest gainer; TTMT disappoints in the South as well
East Zone: MSIL dominates in the smallest geographical segment by size; Honda and Hyundai too have gained market share
Passenger cars
Region wise market share across OEMs
Maruti FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
North 33% 32% 32% 34% 34% 31%
East 10% 10% 11% 11% 4% 12%
West 30% 30% 29% 29% 24% 30%
South 27% 27% 27% 27% 39% 27%
Geographical mix of OEM volumes
Hyundai FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
North 35% 35% 35% 34% 29% 30%
East 10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11%
West 31% 31% 29% 30% 33% 33%
South 24% 23% 25% 25% 27% 26%
Honda FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
North 35% 35% 33% 35% 34% 33%
East 4% 5% 7% 7% 7% 7%
West 39% 37% 36% 31% 31% 32%
South 21% 22% 23% 28% 29% 29%
Tata
MotorsFY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
North 22% 23% 20% 17% 19% 19%
East 14% 12% 13% 12% 13% 9%
West 34% 32% 31% 29% 29% 27%
South 30% 33% 36% 42% 39% 45%
Passenger cars
Region wise market share across OEMs
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
Maharashtra 14% 13% 13% 12% 12% 13%
Kerala 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 8%
Gujarat 8% 9% 8% 7% 8% 8%
Karnataka 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8%
U.P. 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
Delhi 8% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7%
Tamil Nadu 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 7%
Andhra Pradesh 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7%
Haryana 6% 6% 6% 7% 6% 6%
Rajasthan 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5%
Punjab 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4%
West Bengal 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Madhya Pradesh 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Others 15% 13% 14% 15% 17% 14%
The pan-India market share is dominated by Northern and Western states; with Maharashtra leading the pack
Passenger cars
Region wise market share across OEMs
Trends in market share across major states
Trends in market share across major states
State
Share in
overall
volumes
%
(9mFY16)
Honda Hyundai Maruti Tata Motors Others
FY11 FY14H1
FY15
9m
FY16FY11 FY14
H1
FY15
9m
FY16FY11 FY14
H1
FY15
9m
FY16FY11 FY14
H1
FY15
9m
FY16FY11 FY14
H1
FY15
9m
FY16
Maharashtra 13% 5% 9% 10% 12% 17% 21% 24% 20% 44% 46% 47% 49% 17% 7% 6% 7% 16% 17% 13% 12%
Kerala 8% 1% 5% 6% 8% 14% 19% 19% 15% 62% 59% 60% 62% 9% 2% 1% 2% 14% 16% 13% 13%
Gujarat 8% 4% 9% 10% 12% 23% 26% 29% 28% 50% 45% 47% 49% 9% 4% 3% 3% 14% 15% 11% 9%
Karnataka 8% 3% 13% 12% 8% 19% 19% 23% 21% 47% 39% 43% 42% 15% 11% 7% 11% 16% 19% 15% 17%
U.P. 7% 2% 8% 8% 9% 21% 23% 24% 21% 53% 51% 53% 57% 14% 7% 6% 5% 9% 11% 8% 8%
Delhi 7% 6% 14% 14% 14% 25% 24% 21% 20% 46% 46% 50% 51% 6% 1% 2% 3% 17% 15% 14% 12%
Haryana 6% 4% 6% 9% 12% 22% 24% 25% 25% 57% 52% 51% 50% 8% 2% 2% 2% 9% 15% 13% 12%
Tamil Nadu 7% 3% 4% 6% 11% 15% 18% 21% 18% 41% 43% 43% 43% 21% 12% 10% 11% 20% 24% 20% 17%
A.P. 7% 2% 7% 9% 9% 20% 19% 22% 21% 46% 41% 47% 46% 16% 14% 11% 10% 16% 18% 12% 13%
Rajasthan 5% 2% 6% 6% 6% 15% 21% 23% 24% 59% 56% 58% 57% 11% 3% 2% 2% 13% 14% 11% 11%
Punjab 4% 2% 6% 9% 8% 16% 20% 16% 22% 55% 55% 60% 55% 12% 4% 4% 3% 15% 15% 11% 11%
West Bengal 3% 2% 7% 8% 9% 17% 22% 26% 24% 47% 51% 53% 55% 14% 5% 5% 4% 19% 15% 8% 8%
M.P. 3% 2% 5% 5% 6% 14% 19% 22% 25% 51% 54% 56% 55% 22% 10% 8% 6% 12% 13% 9% 8%
Passenger cars
Region wise market share across OEMs
Utility Vehicles
Region wise market share across OEMs
53% 55%44% 41% 37% 37%
14% 14%
14%5%
5% 3%
20% 19%
16%
14%15% 13%
8%10%
7%
13%11% 12%
15%
11% 11% 13%20% 21%
14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
M&M TTMT Toyota Ford Hyundai MSIL Others
Page 34
Stable market share across zones; Maruti upholds overall lead, Tata biggest loser of market share
West and North remain the largest markets, closely followed by the South; Zone wise share in overall volumes has remained largely stable
Many contenders now to what was once M&M’s sold domain – MSIL and new entrants make a meaningful impression; TTMT loses domain share
Source: Company, Spark Capital Research
26% 28% 27% 28% 29% 29%
16% 16% 12% 13% 12% 13%
33% 33%34% 34% 33% 34%
25% 24% 27% 24% 26% 25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
North Zone East Zone West Zone South Zone
Utility vehicles
Region wise market share across OEMs
Page 35
While M&M continues to lead; new entrants have eaten away at market share
Source: Company, Spark Capital Research
North Zone: Ford and Hyundai have cranked up their share aided by new launches at the expense of M&M ,MSIL and Toyota
East Zone: Though similar to trends witnessed in the North, share of MSIL does not erode despite entry of new OEMs
Utility vehicles
51% 55%46% 43% 37% 40%
22% 19%
17%16%
16% 14%
13% 14%
12%
5%5% 4%
10%12% 8%
12%
11%9% 11%
13%
7% 7% 12% 18% 19%10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
M&M Toyota TTMT Ford Hyundai MSIL Others
70% 66% 62% 61% 55% 55%
5%7% 7%
6%7%7%
7%8%
18% 20% 19% 12%10%
6%
6% 7% 6%5%
7% 7%
4% 5% 5% 10% 13% 10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
M&M Ford Hyundai MSIL TTMT Toyota Others
Region wise market share across OEMs
Page 36
While MSIL and Hyundai gain appreciably in these zones
Source: Company, Spark Capital Research
West Zone: MSIL registers significant gains in 9mFY16 on the back of its new launches; Hyundai gains appreciably on the back of Creta
South: Like in the West Zone, MSIL and Hyundai gain; M&M loses share in this zone as well
Utility vehicles
54% 56%45% 41% 38% 35%
14%14% 14% 20%
12% 11% 12%
4% 4% 3%
18% 16% 13%
11% 12% 12%
10%7% 8%
6%
15% 15% 15% 22% 23%15%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
M&M MSIL TTMT Toyota Hyundai Ford Others
43% 45%33% 29% 26% 28%
16%14%
12%16%
30% 29% 21%18%
20%18%
10%11% 12%
8%14% 12% 16%
4% 4%
2%
13% 13% 14%25% 26%
18%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
M&M MSIL Toyota Hyundai Ford TTMT Others
Region wise market share across OEMs
M&M FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
North 25.6% 27.5% 28.2% 28.9% 29.3% 30.6%
East 21.1% 19.1% 17.3% 19.8% 17.7% 18.8%
West 33.2% 33.9% 34.1% 34.6% 35.0% 31.9%
South 20.2% 19.4% 20.3% 16.8% 18.0% 18.7%
Geographical mix of OEM volumes
Toyota FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
North 28.7% 28.7% 29.5% 33.3% 31.4% 30.2%
East 5.0% 5.9% 4.3% 4.7% 5.4% 6.5%
West 29.5% 28.5% 29.0% 29.3% 27.8% 29.8%
South 36.9% 37.0% 37.2% 32.7% 35.4% 33.4%
TTMT FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
North 24.9% 28.6% 22.9% 24.9% 28.1% 31.4%
East 20.8% 23.2% 17.0% 30.9% 25.7% 24.4%
West 29.7% 26.9% 29.0% 27.1% 26.9% 29.7%
South 24.6% 21.3% 31.1% 17.1% 19.3% 14.4%
MSIL FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
North 78.4% 53.7% 23.1% 20.7% 26.6% 23.6%
East 14.8% 22.8% 6.8% 7.6% 7.4% 6.7%
West 5.6% 15.2% 36.5% 42.0% 39.7% 43.7%
South 1.2% 8.3% 33.6% 29.7% 26.2% 26.0%
Utility vehicles
Region wise market share across OEMs
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16
Maharashtra 15% 15% 14% 14% 14% 14%
U.P. 9% 9% 8% 10% 10% 11%
Gujarat 6% 5% 7% 6% 7% 8%
Karnataka 6% 5% 7% 7% 8% 7%
Delhi 6% 7% 5% 6% 7% 7%
Andhra Pradesh 6% 5% 6% 5% 6% 6%
Tamil Nadu 8% 8% 9% 6% 7% 6%
Rajasthan 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6%
Kerala 5% 5% 6% 5% 5% 5%
Haryana 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5%
Madhya Pradesh 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4%
West Bengal 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Bihar 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 3%
Punjab 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3%
The pan-India market share is dominated by Northern and Western states; with Maharashtra leading the pack
Utility vehicles
Region wise market share across OEMs
Trends in market share across major states
Trends in market share across major states
State
Share in
overall
volumes
%
(9mFY16)
Hyundai M&M MSIL Toyota Others
FY11 FY14H1
FY15
9m
FY16FY11 FY14
H1
FY15
9m
FY16FY11 FY14
H1
FY15
9m
FY16FY11 FY14
H1
FY15
9m
FY16FY11 FY14
H1
FY15
9m
FY16
Mah. 14% 0% 0% 1% 10% 45% 31% 29% 25% 0% 20% 19% 26% 25% 14% 15% 15% 29% 34% 37% 24%
U.P. 11% 0% 0% 0% 8% 75% 62% 58% 56% 1% 7% 8% 10% 8% 9% 9% 9% 16% 22% 24% 17%
Gujarat 8% 0% 0% 1% 13% 49% 28% 27% 27% 0% 17% 17% 23% 18% 15% 15% 13% 33% 41% 41% 25%
Karnataka 7% 0% 0% 1% 10% 35% 25% 22% 26% 0% 16% 12% 17% 35% 19% 20% 18% 31% 40% 44% 28%
Delhi 7% 0% 0% 1% 13% 26% 24% 16% 22% 6% 12% 15% 19% 51% 20% 16% 15% 17% 44% 52% 32%
A.P 6% 0% 0% 0% 10% 55% 39% 34% 35% 0% 15% 13% 18% 25% 14% 17% 16% 19% 31% 36% 22%
T.N 6% 0% 0% 0% 8% 41% 30% 26% 26% 0% 11% 11% 15% 27% 17% 18% 16% 32% 42% 44% 34%
Rajasthan 6% 0% 0% 0% 10% 68% 59% 57% 53% 1% 5% 7% 9% 10% 9% 9% 9% 21% 27% 27% 19%
Kerala 5% 0% 0% 0% 11% 42% 22% 21% 24% 0% 15% 13% 13% 35% 23% 25% 23% 23% 41% 40% 30%
Haryana 5% 0% 0% 1% 18% 54% 39% 33% 32% 15% 7% 11% 12% 7% 20% 22% 21% 24% 33% 34% 17%
M.P 4% 0% 0% 0% 7% 64% 60% 57% 51% 1% 5% 6% 9% 6% 5% 7% 7% 29% 29% 31% 26%
W.B> 3% 0% 0% 0% 8% 52% 42% 41% 42% 0% 12% 14% 13% 14% 6% 8% 7% 34% 40% 37% 31%
Bihar 3% 0% 0% 0% 3% 81% 79% 71% 74% 0% 3% 3% 4% 1% 2% 3% 5% 17% 16% 22% 15%
Punjab 3% 0% 0% 0% 17% 42% 28% 24% 31% 2% 12% 12% 11% 31% 27% 27% 23% 26% 32% 37% 18%
Utility vehicles
Maruti Suzuki and M&M
MUKESH SARAF [email protected] +91 44 4344 0041
RAMAKRISHNAN SESHAN [email protected] +91 44 4344 0020Find Spark Research on Bloomberg (SPAK <go>),
Thomson First Call, Reuters Knowledge and Factset
Key estimate revision
FY17E FY18E
Old New Change Old New Change
Revenue 6,93,744 6,76,455 -2.5% 7,62,453 7,65,810 0.4%
EBITDA 1,09,432 1,00,118 -8.5% 1,20,505 1,13,564 -5.8%
Margin (%) 15.8% 14.8% -100 bps 15.8% 14.8% -100bps
PAT 68,841 61,763 -10.3% 82,545 74,572 -9.7%
PAT Margin 9.9% 9.1% -80 bps 10.8% 9.7% -100 bps
EPS 227.9 204.5 -10.3% 273.3 246.9 -9.7%
All figures in Rs. mn, except EPS, which is in Rs.
Volume estimates FY16E FY17E FY18E
Volume YoY % Volume YoY % Volume YoY %
Alto, Wagon R 4,29,704 2% 4,44,985 4% 4,69,006 5%
Swift, Celerio, Ritz/ Ignis, Dzire 5,34,642 3% 5,61,648 5% 6,22,515 11%
Ciaz 53,591 60% 58,950 10% 66,024 12%
Baleno 50,822 - 1,27,055 150% 1,47,384 16%
Total PCs 10,68,759 10% 11,92,638 12% 13,04,929 9%
Omni, Eeco 1,41,575 10% 1,58,564 12% 1,74,420 10%
Ertiga, S-cross, Vitara Brezza 89,021 32% 1,34,967 52% 1,47,363 9%
LCV - 18,000 - 20,700 15%
Domestic PVs 12,99,355 11% 15,04,169 16% 16,47,412 10%
Exports 1,24,000 2% 1,37,640 11% 1,65,168 20%
Total 14,23,355 10% 16,41,809 15% 18,12,580 10%
Volume Estimates
FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E
Automotive 4,64,842 488,109 595,545 659,544
% growth -8% 5% 22% 11%
Farm Equipment - tractor segment 236,426 212,269 234,100 262,609
% growth -12% -10% 10% 12%
TOTAL 701,268 700,378 829,645 922,153
% growth -9.0% 0% 18% 11%
SOTP Valuation
Basis
Sep’17PAT/
Market Cap
(Rs. mn)
PE (x)Discount
(%)
Eq Value
(Rs. mn)
Rs. per
share
M&M + MVML Core PAT 41,022 14.5x - 594,821 960
Listed subsidiaries &
holdings
Market Cap
/ book value293,395 20% 234,716 380
1,340
Maruti Suzuki
Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M + MVML)
Key estimate revision
FY17E FY18E
Old New Change Old New Change
Revenue 4,62,166 4,41,888 -4.4% 5,22,403 4,98,797 -4.5%
EBITDA 60,764 58,329 -4.0% 69,051 65,841 -4.6%
Margin (%) 13.2% 13.2% 0 bps 13.2% 13.2% 0 bps
PAT 39,772 37,984 -4.5% 46,418 44,060 -5.1%
PAT Margin 8.61% 8.60% -1 bps 8.89% 8.83% -5 bps
EPS 64.6 61.7 -4.5% 75.4 71.5 -5.1%
All figures in Rs. mn, except EPS, which is in Rs.
Change in estimates
Maruti Suzuki and M&M
Financial Summary (Maruti Suzuki)
Abridged Financial Statements (Maruti Suzuki) Key metrics
Rs. mn FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E
Profit & Loss Growth ratios
Revenues 4,98,740 5,69,605 6,76,455 7,65,810 Revenues 14.1% 14.2% 18.8% 13.2%
Manufacturing & Other Expenses 4,32,681 4,80,337 5,76,337 6,52,246 EBITDA 29.6% 35.1% 12.2% 13.4%
EBITDA 66,059 89,268 1,00,118 1,13,564 PAT 33.4% 22.6% 35.8% 20.7%
Depreciation 24,703 27,878 30,518 34,043 Margins
EBIT 41,356 61,390 69,600 79,521 EBITDA 13.2% 15.7% 14.8% 14.8%
Net Interest Exp / (inc) 2,060 817 928 928 EBIT 8.3% 10.8% 10.3% 10.4%
Profit Before Tax 48,682 64,304 81,267 98,121 PAT 7.4% 8.0% 9.1% 9.7%
Tax 11,570 18,820 19,504 23,549 Leverage & WC ratios
Adj. Net Profit 37,112 45,485 61,763 74,572 Debt to equity (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Balance Sheet (Rs. mn) Current ratio (x) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6
Shareholders Equity 2,37,042 2,69,801 3,13,383 3,66,139 Debtor days (Sales) 8 9 10 10
Loan funds 5,156 5,156 5,156 5,156 Inventory days (COGS) 27 27 27 27
Sources of funds 2,47,008 2,79,767 3,23,349 3,76,105 Creditor Days (COGS) 58 57 57 53
Net block 1,22,593 1,24,715 1,34,197 1,40,154 Performance & turnover ratios
Investments 1,28,140 1,58,140 2,06,140 2,60,140 RoACE 13.1% 16.5% 17.5% 17.3%
Capital WIP 18,828 18,828 18,828 18,828 RoAE 16.6% 17.9% 21.2% 21.9%
Current assets, loans & advances 65,949 74,578 77,753 78,104 Total asset turnover (x) 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4
Current liabilities & provisions 88,502 96,494 1,13,569 1,21,121 Fixed asset turnover (x) 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2
Net Current Assets (22,553) (21,916) (35,816) (43,017)
Application of funds 2,47,009 2,79,767 3,23,349 3,76,105 Current price (Rs.)
Cash Flows (Rs. mn) Shares outstanding (mn) 302 302 302 302
Cash flows from operations 64,106 71,170 93,235 1,04,880 Market capitalisation (Rs. mn) 10,92,019 10,92,019 10,92,019 10,92,019
Capex (32,468) (30,000) (40,000) (40,000) Enterprise value (Rs. mn) 9,75,259 9,44,679 9,06,570 8,62,569
Free Cash Flow 31,638 41,170 53,235 64,880 EV/EBIDTA (x) 14.8 10.6 9.1 7.6
Cash flows from investments (44,999) (60,000) (88,000) (94,000) Adj. Per-share earnings (Rs.) 122.9 150.6 204.5 246.9
Cash flows from financing (19,621) (9,090) (12,726) (18,180) Price-earnings multiple (x) 29.4 24.0 17.7 14.6
Closing cash 5,783 2,263 (5,227) (12,527) Dividend yield (%) 0.7% 1.0% 1.4% 1.7%
Valuation metrics
3,615
Maruti Suzuki and M&M
Financial Summary (M&M + MVML)
Abridged Financial Statements (M&M + MVML) Key metrics
Rs. mn FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E
Revenues 3,72,236 3,83,445 4,41,888 4,98,797 Revenues -4.1% 3.0% 15.2% 12.9%
Manufacturing & Other Expenses 3,26,203 3,31,609 3,83,558 4,32,956 EBITDA -12.3% 12.6% 12.5% 12.9%
EBITDA 46,033 51,836 58,329 65,841 PAT -18.4% 5.2% 13.2% 16.0%
Depreciation 10,980 11,904 13,332 14,415
EBIT 46,611 47,969 53,837 61,151 EBITDA 12.4% 13.5% 13.2% 13.2%
Interest Exp / (inc) 3,039 2,304 2,138 1,181 EBIT 12.5% 12.5% 12.2% 12.3%
Profit Before Tax 43,572 45,664 51,700 59,970 PAT 8.6% 8.7% 8.6% 8.8%
Tax 9,339 12,114 13,716 15,910 Leverage & WC ratios
Adj. Net Profit 31,883 33,550 37,984 44,060 Debt to equity (x) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Current ratio (x) 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
Shareholders Equity 1,98,769 2,22,004 2,49,674 2,83,419 Debtor days (Sales) 24 25 25 25
Loan funds 30,382 35,000 22,000 9,500 Inventory days (COGS) 40 50 45 45
Sources of funds 2,29,152 2,57,004 2,71,674 2,92,919 Creditor Days (COGS) 83 90 85 85
Net block 79,019 87,115 93,783 99,368 Performance & turnover ratios
Investments 1,04,133 1,12,133 1,20,133 1,28,133 RoACE 17.0% 16.0% 15.2% 16.2%
Capital WIP 21,788 26,788 31,788 31,828 RoAE 17.1% 15.9% 16.1% 16.5%
Current assets, loans & advances 1,45,528 1,55,350 1,61,289 1,82,365 Total asset turnover (x) 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3
Current liabilities & provisions 1,21,316 1,24,381 1,35,319 1,48,774 Fixed asset turnover (x) 3.9 3.6 3.7 3.9
Net Current Assets 24,212 30,969 25,971 33,591 Valuation metrics
Application of funds 2,29,152 2,57,004 2,71,674 2,92,919 Current price (Rs.)
Shares outstanding (mn) 621 621 621 621
Cash flows from operations 57,171 43,009 56,614 62,400 Market capitalisation (Rs. mn) 7,45,885 7,45,885 7,45,885 7,45,885
Capex (20,346) (25,000) (25,000) (20,040) Enterprise value (Rs. mn) 7,55,213 7,57,943 7,45,582 7,21,526
Free cashflow 20,975 10,009 23,614 34,360 EV/EBIDTA (x) 16.4 14.6 12.8 11.0
Cash flows from investments 7,436 (33,000) (33,000) (28,040) Per-share earnings (Rs.) 51.8 54.5 61.7 71.5
Cash flows from financing (22,054) (8,121) (24,253) (22,804) Price-earnings multiple (x) 23.2 22.1 19.5 16.8
Cash at the end of the year 21,053 22,941 22,302 33,859 Dividend yield (%) 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%
Profit & Loss Growth ratios
Margins
Balance Sheet (Rs. mn)
Cash Flows (Rs. mn)
1,201
Spark Recommendation History
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16
Rs.
Price Target
Maruti Suzuki – 3 Year Price and Rating History
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Mar-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16
Rs.
Price Target
Mahindra & Mahindra – 3 Year Price and Rating History
Report Date Price Target Reco.
29/Jan/16 4,103 4,760 Buy
28/Oct/15 4,497 4,950 Buy
30/Jul/15 4,200 4,770 Buy
28/Apr/15 3,650 4,336 Buy
28/Jan/15 3,688 4,275 Buy
31/Oct/14 3,232 3,427 Add
27/Aug/14 2,781 3,200 Buy
01/Aug/14 2,524 2,250 Sell
28/Apr/14 1,955 1,710 Sell
29/Jan/14 1,680 1,520 Reduce
03/Jan/14 1,768 1,500 Sell
29/Oct/13 1,514 1,392 Reduce
18/Sep/13 1,398 1,325 Reduce
Report Date Price Target Reco.
26/Jul/13 1,394 1,460 Add
29/Apr/13 1,674 1,846 Add
08/Apr/13 1,405 1,500 Add
11/Mar/13 1,417 1,590 Add
25/Jan/13 1,599 1,690 Add
Report Date Price Target Reco.
15/Feb/16 1,168 1,350 Buy
09/Nov/15 1,257 1,345 Add
10/Aug/15 1,392 1,475 Add
01/Jun/15 1,255 1,420 Buy
16/Feb/15 1,192 1,430 Buy
03/Nov/14 1,298 1,431 Add
12/Aug/14 1,310 1,345 Add
Report Date Price Target Reco.
03/Jun/14 1,230 1,243 Reduce
17/Feb/14 903 1,000 Add
03/Jan/14 936 1,000 Add
14/Nov/13 895 960 Add
14/Aug/13 871 983 Add
31/May/13 964 1,041 Add
08/Apr/13 837 935 Add
Spark Capital has a subsidiary Spark Investment Advisors (India) Private Limited which is engaged in the services of providing investment advisory services and is registered with SEBI as Investment Advisor. Spark Capital has also an associate company Spark
Infra Advisors (India) Private Limited which is engaged in providing infrastructure advisory services.
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In connection with research report
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