Natural Gas Consumption 1
Reduce Monthly Natural Gas Consumption
John Toksoy
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL 2
Answer These Q’s in Define Phase
What is the problem being addressed? Who is the customer? What are the business reasons for completing this project? What is the goal of this project? Describe the benefits of this project Where, when and to what extent does this problem occur? What are the boundaries of this project? What resources will be needed for this project? What do you need from your sponsor? team? What data has been collected to understand customer
requirements? What criteria was used in selecting your project?
Define
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIALThis is a Header 3
Y Statement
Reduce monthly natural gas consumption by 20% for the months of Dec thru Mar Set back temperature
Insulation improvements
Define
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIALThis is a Header 4
Develop A Charter
Business Case – Why am I doing this project? Cost savings, Carbon footprint reduction
ME 414 Class Hands on experiment• Learn 6S approach to a given goal
• Learn data analysis
Schedule Complete data collection by mid March before outside
temp warms up
Complete analysis tool development during ME414 Spring 2010 semester
Define
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Process Map
Do I understand the process? What are the critical parameters? What are the failure modes? Can I measure the quantity to be improved with
at least 80% confidence?
DefineProcess
Map
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Process Map
Allows people to illustrate what happens in a process
Useful for clarifying the scope of a project Excellent visual aide for identifying the “hidden
factory” (rework/defect prevention) Identifies all the potential inputs that may affect
the key outputs of the process
Everything we do is a process …some processes are straight forward
…other processes can be chaotic
DefineProcess
Map
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Types of Process Map
Process Variables Map Used as the first step in the Six Sigma process (Funnel
Effect)
Critical to successfully improving processes by reducing and removing variation
“As is/Can be” Map Excellent method for identifying non-value-added steps
Necessary first step in cycle time reduction projects
Other types used for specific purposes: Swim-lane, SIPOC, flow-chart, etc…
DefineProcess
Map
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
The Funneling Effect
Critical Input Variables
30+ Inputs
8 - 10
4 - 8
3 - 6
Found Critical X’s
Controlling Critical X’s
10 - 15
All X’s
1st “Hit List”
Screened List
MEASURE
ANALYZE
IMPROVE
CONTROL
• Process Maps
• Failure Modes and Effects Analysis
• Multi-Vari Studies
• Design of Experiments (DOE)
• Control Plans
• C&E Matrix
DefineProcess
Map
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Detailed Process Map
What is the tool? Graphical illustration of
your process
What will the tool identify? All value-added and non-
value-added process steps
Key Process Inputs (X’s) (KPIV)
Key Process Outputs (Y’s) (KPOV)
Data Collection Points
When do you apply process mapping? Always
What are results of Process Mapping? Identify systems
needing Measurement Studies
Identify KPOV’s for Capability Studies
Identify missing elements in the Control Plan
Identify possible non-value-added process steps
DefineProcess
Map
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIALThis is a Header 10
Process Map
Thermostat Set back temp?
Furnace Energy Consumption Gas Bill Measurement system
Energy cost gas & electricity
Measure
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Critical Parameter Management
Residential Home Energy Consumption
Electric Natural Gas
Furnace Water Heater Appliances
BTU Capacity
Efficiency
Outside Temp
Inside Set Temp
House Heat Losses
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIALThis is a Header 12
Measure
MSA Measurement system capability study
• Temp sensors, A/D converters• Compare calculated degree days to published deg-days of
Carmel• Inside humidity accuracy
Furnace on time estimate or measurement accuracy
Measure
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Heating Degree DaysVectren Bill vs. HDD Measurements
Correlation between vectren, internet site and measured HDD days
This is a Header 13
Measure
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Heating Deg Days vs. Therms Used
This is a Header 14
Measure
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
HDD vs. Therms Regression Analysis
This is a Header 15
Good linear correlation between Therms and heating degree days P value is zero
31.7 Therms at zero heating degree days Water heater
consumption is 31.7 Therms
Measure
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Error AnalysisDeviation from Therms vs HDD linearity
This is a Header 16
Expect to have a random error No
common cause for errors
Error should not have a trend
No common cause for errors
Error is normally
distributed
Measure
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Monthly Variation of HDDJan 2007 – Jan 2010
This is a Header 17
Months of February and November shows the most variation. Why?
Measure
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Does the Setup Measure Energy Consumption Accurately
For each of the 24 hr data set Calculate the heater on time
Calculate heating degree days
Plot HDD vs. heater on time
Does it show a linear behavior
This is a Header 18
Measure
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Heater On Time Calculation
Options to calculate heater on time Measure register air temp with LM34 sensor or a
thermistor• Heated air transport delay time between furnace and
register where sensor is located
Microphone to detect air movement• Negligible air movement transport delay
Detect heater on signal from the controller• Best method for heater on time accuracy• Requires one or two more microcontroller I/O pins to pick-
up the fan on and heater on signals• Communication signals are at 24V. Signal needs to be
reduced to 5V before connecting to microcontroller I/O.• Thermostat to furnace communication needs to be decoded. It
is a function of the thermostat brand.
Measure
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Relationship between Therms and Heater On Time
Convert heater on time to Therms Furnace spec (BTU-hr, efficiency, model #)
Calculate house heat loss using the excel file Compare calculated heat loss to Therms
calculated from heater on time Is there a good correlation between analysis and
measurement?
Measure
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Measurement Error
Error due to long signal wires Filter design
Impact on mean value
ME 414 – 6S Approach 21
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Temperature & Humidity Measurement System
This is a Header 22
LM34
HIH 4000
Measurement System Components LM34 Temperature sensor
HIH4000 Humidity sensor
LTC1298 A/D converter
HVAC Register Outlet Temp
Outside Ambient Temperature
Room Humidity & Temperature
Measure
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
First Order Low Pass Filters
This is a Header 23
Original Signal
GreenFrom LM34
RedTo LTC 1298
Cut-Off
Cut-Off
Cut-Off
(Hz)
Ground
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIALThis is a Header 24
Initial Capability
Initial capability What is the current energy usage as baseline where
savings will be calculated from• Degree day comparison• Past 5 to 10 years gas and electric bills (kWhr used not $$
$)
Calculate heat loss from the house using the excel analysis tool
• Make the tool more general to include individual rooms
Run transient heat transfer analysis using the Matlab tool and compare to measured data
Analyze
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Weekend Temperature DataNo Setback During Daytime
ME 414 – 6S Approach 25
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Temperature DataSetback During Daytime
ME 414 – 6S Approach 26
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIALThis is a Header 27
Multi-Vari
Effect of degree days on energy used Heat leaks from the house
Thermal survey around the windows
Window pane inside and outside temperatures
Wall inside temp of outside walls
Literature survey on set-back temperature Furnace specifications – Energy output BTU/hr
Analyze
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIALThis is a Header 28
Setback Temperature
Faster recovery time systems will have more savings with setback Larger AC units will have shorter on times but will
remove less humidity
Effect of setback is negligible if outside temp is > 4 C
8 hr setback period will save 1% energy per degree setback
Analyze
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIALThis is a Header 29
Analyze
DATE HDD CALCULATED
HDD PUBLISHED % ERROR Furnace on
time
# of on-Off Cycles
Calculated
# of on-off cycles seen
on graph
Diff between calculated
and seen on graph
22-Jan 30.058 30 0.1933 2.27 30 30 0
28-Jan 49.59 48 3.3134 3.86 51 51 0
29-Jan 50.308 50 0.6163 4.63 62 62 0
3-Feb 36.879 37 0.3267 2.54 33 33 0
4-Feb 33.904 35 3.1308 3.24 49 49 0
5-Feb 32.651 32 2.0337 3.55 57 57 0
6-Feb 42.255 41 3.0612 3.18 50 50 0
Table #1
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIALThis is a Header 30
Error could occur because of minor temperature fluctuations on site due to the environment.
Error could also occur due to noise in the measurement system.
Improve
Plot #1
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIALThis is a Header 31
Improve
Plot #2
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIALThis is a Header 32
Improve
Plot #3
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIALThis is a Header 33
Improve
R= 0.08
Plot #4
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIALThis is a Header 34
Improve
First Floor
Areas Walls Windows Doors 1st Floor Total
N 426.4 80.2746 0 346.1254
S 538 131.2202 0 406.7798
E 378.4 37.1 0 341.3
W 439.11 0 58.8673 380.2427
Second Floor
Areas Walls Windows Doors 2nd Floor Total
N 575.651 75.71 0 499.941
S 363.2 16.4 0 346.8
E 371.72 0 0 371.72
W 162.5 0 0 162.5
Table #2 & 3
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIALME 414 – 6S Approach 35
Control
Basement
Areas Walls Windows Doors Basement Total
N 142.29 10.2446 0 132.0454
S 142.29 0 0 142.29
E 291.125 0 0 291.125
W 157.25 0 0 157.25
House Total
Areas Walls Windows Doors House Total
N 1144.341 166.2292 0 978.1118
S 1043.49 147.6202 0 895.8698
E 1041.245 37.1 0 1004.145
W 758.86 0 58.8673 699.9927
350.9494 58.8673 3578.1193 3987.936
Table #4 & 5
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
R-Value
Walls 22.52
Windows 1.5
Doors 2.25
Date Ave T-Out Delta T Heat Loss from Walls
Heat Loss from Windows
Heat Loss from Doors Total Heat losas
22-Jan 34.95 -30.05 -4774.53308 -7030.686313 -786.2054956 -12591.42489
28-Jan 15.41 -49.59 -7879.171229 -11602.38716 -1297.435292 -20778.99369
29-Jan 14.7 -50.3 -7991.980497 -11768.50321 -1316.011196 -21076.49491
3-Feb 28.12 -36.88 -5859.726456 -8628.675915 -964.9004551 -15453.30283
4-Feb 31.1 -33.9 -5386.245305 -7931.45644 -886.9339867 -14204.63573
5-Feb 32.35 -32.65 -5187.63744 -7638.998607 -854.2299311 -13680.86598
6-Feb 22.75 -42.25 -6712.945845 -9885.074767 -1105.397078 -17703.41769
ME 414 – 6S Approach 36
Control
Table #6 & 7
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Table #8
House Heat Loss
Month Heat Loss BTU/hr Heat Loss Therms
December -14211415.12 -105732.9285
January -1697289.629 -12627.83484
February -1449628.019 -9741.50029
March -877179.7402 -6526.217267
ME 414 – 6S Approach 37
Control
U= -0.004413551 -0.004
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIALThis is a Header 38
Project Steps
March 24 Process Map
Critical Parameter Flow Down (CPM)
March 31 Calc heater on time using excel programming
Calc heating degree days
Establish a relationship between hdd and heater on time
April 7 Does the calculated hdd correlate with published hdd
What is the heat loss from the house
Does it correlate with the heater on time
Improve
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
APPENDIX
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Therm, BTU, Joule & Calorie
A BTU (British Thermal Unit) is the amount of heat necessary to raise one pound of water by 1 degree Farenheit (F). 1 British Thermal Unit (BTU) = 1055 J 1 BTU = 252 cal = 1.055 kJ 1 Quad = 1015 BTU (World energy usage is about 300
Quads/year, US is about 100 Quads/year in 1996.) 1 therm = 100,000 BTU 1,000 kWh = 3.41 million BTU
1 calorie of heat is the amount needed to raise 1 gram of water 1 degree Centigrade. 1 calorie (cal) = 4.184 J
(The Calories in food ratings are actually kilocalories.)
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Natural Gas
Energy content 1030 BTU / Cubic Foot Pounds of CO2 per billion BTU of energy:
Coal 208,000 poundsOil 164,000 poundsNatural Gas 117,000 pounds Ratios of CO2 pollution:
Oil / Natural Gas = 1.40Coal / Natural Gas = 1.78
Pounds of CO2 per 1,000 kWh, at 100% efficiency:Coal 709 poundsOil 559 poundsNatural Gas 399 pounds
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Humidity Sensor HIH4000 Datasheet
This is a Header 42
Parallax - Sensor - Humidity - HIH 4000.pdf
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
No Power to LM34
ME 414 – 6S Approach 43
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
No Power to LM34
ME 414 – 6S Approach 44
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
5V to LM34 – No Capacitor
ME 414 – 6S Approach 45
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
5V to LM34 & 33uF Capacitor
ME 414 – 6S Approach 46
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Freq Domain – 5V & 33uF
ME 414 – 6S Approach 47
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
5V No Cap
ME 414 – 6S Approach 48
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
5V No Cap
ME 414 – 6S Approach 49
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIALME 414 – 6S Approach 50
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Bode Plot – Excel Version
ME 414 – 6S Approach 51
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
Mag
nitu
de (
dB)
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
-90
-45
0
Pha
se (
deg)
Bode Diagram
Frequency (rad/sec)
121k rad/sec
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL
Bode Plot – Excel Version
This is a Header 52
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIALME 414 – 6S Approach 53
CUMMINS CONFIDENTIALME 414 – 6S Approach 54
Top Related