Recycling, Waste and Development
Frank AckermanTufts University, USA
International Conference on“Asian Megacities and Global Sustainability”
Science Council of JapanTokyo, November 11, 2004
First, Two Apologies1. For our election
49% of us are just as unhappy as you are!
2. For speaking to this conference with so little knowledge of Asian cities
I hope I can draw some useful lessons and parallels from what I do know
Recycling and PovertyWhat is the role of recycling in the Asian megacities of the 21st century?Poverty makes recycling look too easy!
Low-income people willingly collect many discarded materials for resale
What happens when incomes rise?Urban waste expands and changes Poverty no longer forces people to recycleNew methods are needed for recovery of valuable waste materials
Low Wages and Waste RecoveryAt low enough wages, many wastes will be recoveredIn Tokugawa Japan, human night soil was collected to fertilize farms
Result: cities were very cleanLess labor-intensive fertilizers became available in the early 20th century
Suddenly Tokyo had a waste disposal problem, initially ”solved” by ocean dumping
Sendai, Japan, 1954. Collection of human waste for fertilizer briefly resumed in the years of postwar poverty.
Poverty leads to many forms of recycling – some worse than othersValuable materials can be recovered by digging through landfillsPublic health effects of landfill scavenging are dreadfulChild labor is often involved
Pictured here: Brazil
Scavenging
Recycling – or Hard Labor?
If wages are low enough, even the biggest ships can be manually “recycled”(pictured here: Bangladesh)
Wages vs. Materials Prices
When wages rise, will plastic bags still be collected and transported this way in Beijing?
US economic history:Labor time required to buy materials, 1830-1969
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10
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1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980
Ratio of wholesale prices to average US manufacturing wage (1890-1969) or urban unskilled labor wage (1830-1889).
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utes
of l
abor
at a
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age
Cotton sheeting (1 yard)Nails (1 pound)
Are Aluminum Cans Litter?Aluminum beverage cans are worth about US $.01 per canMexico: there are no aluminum cans on the streetsUS: 39 states have no deposits on beer and soft drink containers
In these states, aluminum cans are often found in street litterUS: 11 states have deposits on beverage containers, usually $.05.
In these states, there are no aluminum cans on the streetsConclusion: incomes (and deposits) determine whether aluminum cans are waste
At Mexican incomes, people will collect cans for $.01 At US incomes, people will collect cans for $.05 but not for $.01
The Development of WasteAs incomes rise, urban solid waste increases in quantity – and changes in composition
Food waste is a declining fraction of the waste streamManufactured goods, especially paper, make up a growing fraction of waste
Fewer wastes are recovered through market forces alone
At high enough incomes, even aluminum becomes wasteSome new products have low market value (plastics) or create hazards for recycling (electronics, chemicals)
The result is a growing waste management problem
Paper Waste and National Income Level
4%
15%15%20%
34%36%
Low income Middle income High incomesource: World Bank, "What a Waste: Solid Waste
Management in Asia"
Pape
r as
frac
tion
of s
olid
was
te
19952025
The Importance of Paper
Most of the material collected by US recycling programs consists of paper products
Most of the revenue of US recycling programs comes from selling recovered paper
Should paper be recycled or incinerated?Some studies suggest environmental impacts are similar for burning or recycling paper (landfilling is worst)Climate change impacts are better for recycling, due to increased carbon sequestration in forests
US Recycling Programs (1996)
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U.S. Bergen Seattle
lbs
per c
apita
PaperOther
Greenhouse Gas Reduction from Recycling (per capita, 1996)
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U.S. Bergen Seattle
kg C
equ
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ent p
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PaperOther
Two Wrong Views of “High-income Recycling”
Recycling does not solve a crisis of disposal capacity or costs
In most places, there is no capacity crisis to be solvedRecycling often costs a little more than waste disposal
Recycling is not an expensive luxuryEstimates of huge costs are based on analysis of very inefficient programs – or on miscalculations and exaggerationsRecycling costs only a little more than disposal
People Want to RecycleUS recycling programs cost $21 per household per year more than waste disposal (early 1990s average)US and European studies find people are willing to pay more than this for recycling
Cancellation of recycling programs to save money (attempted in New York City and Washington) has been very unpopular, programs have been restored
Most people believe the environmental benefits of recycling are worth the modest costsRecycling rates increase with higher income and population density
The Challenge of Modern Recycling
Poverty offers one road to recyclingEconomic development will block this road – creating new wastes and removing old incentives for recycling
Is there another road? Can we recover valuable materials from waste without being poor?
As Asian cities develop, they will quickly come to face the problems of “high-income waste streams”and the need for modern recycling
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