REAL TRUTH ABOUT GDP AND JOBS – CANADA BY: PAUL YOUNG, CPA, CGA

DATE: JANUARY 12, 2018

PAUL YOUNG - BIO

• CPA, CGA• Academia (PF1, FA4 and MS2)• SME – Risk Management• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting• SME – Public Policy • SME – Financial Solutions• SME – Supply Chain Management

Contact information:Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

INTRODUCTION

GDP is key measurement for a country. Allot is said about GDP, especially by various government. The reality is government gets to much credit for booming economy and too much fault for recession.

There are many factors drive GDP including taxation, business returns, consumer spending and government spending. 2/3 of economies tend to be driven by consumer spending. If you set policies that takes more money out people’s pocket book then that will lead to less consumer spending.

AGENDA

What is GDP

Example of GDP

GDP by decade

GDP / Canada Example (GDP % by Government)

GDP Global Forecast

GDP / Canada (LPC vs CPC)

Role of Government and GDP

Middle Class

WHAT IS GDP?

Source - https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/199.asp or https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-gdp-definition-of-gross-domestic-product-3306038

Gross domestic product is the best way to measure a

country's economy. GDP is the total value of everything

produced by all the people and companies in the country. It

doesn't matter if they are citizens or foreign-owned

companies. If they are located within the country's boundaries, the government counts their production as GDP.

GDP BY DECADE

Source - https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2017/12/a-multi-decade-economic-boom.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+blogspot%2Fadvancednano+%28nextbigfuture%29

CANADA GDP - EXAMPLE

Source – Stats Canada - http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/171222/dq171222a-eng.htm -

GDP GLOBAL FORECAST

Source - http://www.gbm.scotiabank.com/English/bns_econ/forecast.pdf

• Germany and USA will past Canada in GDP Growth for 2018.

• Canada GDP will be impacted by capacity issues (goods to market), carbon tax, slow money to infrastructure, housing affordability)

GDP – CANADA (LPC VS CPC)

Source - https://www.budget.gc.ca/fes-eea/2017/docs/statement-enonce/fes-eea-2017-eng.pdf or

GOVERNMENT AND GDP

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/canada-tops-g7-in-latest-imf-estimate-for-2017-economic-growth-no-2-in-2018

Say it isn't so that Canada will no longer have the fastest growing GDP for the G7 countries. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-29/u-s-third-quarter-growth-revised-up-to-3-3-three-year-high- Who now has faster growing economy? United States!!! https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/21/us-final-reading-on-q3-2017-gdp.html

Trudeau deflects off the ethical issues as Canadians do not care. Trudeau then says opposition has nothing to say about economy -https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVne2R7_zYw Here are things to considered when incomes to economic growth:

Government does not create jobs in the private sector

Private sector will invest based on return on investment

Government role is set policy in areas like environment, taxation, trade, infrastructure, etc. Canada is moving to higher taxation and regulations

East-West Pipeline canceled - https://www.bnn.ca/transcanada-ends-plans-for-energy-east-pipeline-1.876194

Canada is forcing Carbon Taxation - http://business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/ottawas-carbon-tax-plan-to-shrink-economy-by-3-billion-hurt-loonie-in-2018-study. Australia yanked the carbon tax as it did more harm than good when it came to both the environment and the economy - http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/australian-carbon-tax-opponent-chris-berg-saskatchewan-1.3884765

BTW: We can thank the housing and oil for bulk of the boom in 2017. You won't hear the details from the Liberals!!

JOB VACANCIES / CANADA

Source - http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/180111/dq180111a-eng.htm

EMPLOYMENT (CPC VS LPC)

Source - http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/180105/dq180105a-eng.htm

LIBERALS / MIDDLE CLASS

Source - https://www.liberal.ca/trudeau-unveils-liberal-platform-for-a-strong-middle-class/

“Stephen Harper wants us to think

that if it weren’t for him, our

economy would fall apart. But

Canada’s economy doesn’t depend

on him. It depends on Canadians. It

depends on the people I meet all

across this country, every single

day,” said Mr. Trudeau. “People want

economic growth, good jobs, and

more money in their pockets. They

want to see their voices and values

represented in Ottawa. Canadians

want a better government, not just a

different one. It’s time for real

change, and that is exactly what the Liberal plan provides.”

Liberal 2015 GDP by PMWage Growth by Year

BLOG – EMPLOYMENT – ENTRY-LEVEL Did the Liberals not run on jobs for all? https://www.liberal.ca/realchange/opportunities-for-young-canadians/

“After ten years under Stephen Harper, good-quality job opportunities for young Canadians are tougher nd tougher to find. Faced with high unemployment and underemployment, many young people have stopped looking for work altogether.

This is hard for both young people and their families. Many parents are seeing their household debt rise and retirement savings dwindle as they struggle to support their grown children, who often return home. It is time to invest in young Canadians – to help them get the work experience they will need to start their careers and contribute fully to our economy.

Yet in 2016 the job quality index hit the worst level in decades. So, much for sunny ways and jobs, right?

Issues with entry level jobs: -

https://globalnews.ca/news/3914000/university-graduates-entry-level-jobs-canada/ “In 2016, around one in two entry-level jobs did not require a minimum level of education (87,500 vacancies). A quarter of those gigs (48,400 vacancies) required a high school diploma and one in five (18,300 vacancies) required a college diploma. Only 14,000 entry-level jobs required a university degree. For comparison, over 250,000 Canadians graduated from university in 2010. -https://globalnews.ca/news/3914000/university-graduates-entry-level-jobs-canada/?utm_source=%40globalnews&utm_medium=Twitter

Goods producing sector continue to lag other sectors in terms of job growth - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/wages-and-employment-canada-policy-analysis - Goods producing sector would lead to engineering, quality control inspectors, supply chain management, inventory control, etc.

Retail/wholesale sector lead a good chunk of the growth. Warehousing is going through automation -https://www.xconomy.com/boston/2017/11/20/locus-robotics-gets-25m-to-help-warehouse-owners-compete-with-amazon/

Job Quality Index - http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/wages-cibc-job-quality-1.3872389 “The quality of employment in Canada is falling, according to a report from CIBC, with more low-paid jobs and those earning less than the average wage falling further behind. Both young people and Canadians over 55 are stuck in the low-wage job sector, primarily in-service jobs. But even among workers aged 25 to 54, 53 per cent had jobs that paid between 50 and 100 per cent of the average wage.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/12/03/stingy-canadian-employers-face-workforce-crisis-in-2018-report_a_23295535/ “Canada's employers face a potential "workforce crisis" next year, as employees take advantage of a strong job market to leave their jobs in search of better pay and work conditions, a new report says. And it's due to employers' own reluctance to improve wages and hire permanent workers, according to the report from recruitment agency Hays Canada.

BLOG #1 – MIDDLE CLASS http://www.torontosun.com/2017/10/11/canucks-believe-middle-class-dream-replaced-by-nightmare-poll

Yet Trudeau said the article is wrong? https://globalnews.ca/news/3769136/taxes-middle-class-liberals/ I hate to tell PM Selfie that Trudeau is wrong. You cannot eliminate tax credits, income tax splitting, etc. and then expect taxes will go down, because they do not! https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/did-the-middle-class-cut-truly-help-canadians . FYI - The child tax benefit did not reduce poverty by 400,000.

Trudeau so called middle class tax cut did not work - https://globalnews.ca/news/3769136/taxes-middle-class-liberals/. This is before carbon tax is implemented across Canada 2019. The carbon tax will hurt low to middle class more than the wealthy. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/australian-carbon-tax-opponent-chris-berg-saskatchewan-1.3884765

Yet the PBO office said CPC cuts help low to middle class Canadians. Trudeau again got it wrong about Harper and his policies!!!! https://globalnews.ca/news/1356467/tax-cuts-since-2005-net-canadians-30b-pbo/.

Wage growth - How about the fact your government has lost 75,000 mfg jobs? http://business.financialpost.com/opinion/75000-manufacturing-jobs-lost-thats-the-price-of-ontarios-electricity-disaster How come incomes have grown only 3.8% for 10 years? http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/statistics-canada-census-2016-income-hightlights-1.4287179

In 2014 is when Canada had the best middle class in the world - https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/canadas-middle-class-now-worlds-richest-study-suggests/article18090490/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&

People complain about corporations and yet they contribute to wealth distribution –

Harper did not just focus on tax cuts including corporate tax, but also set up innovation funds and sign trade deals to expand exports. https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/wealth-distribution-canada-corporate-tax-july-2017. Trudeau was elected and said he will focus on clean technology, right? https://www.liberal.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/A-new-plan-for-Canadas-environment-and-economy.pdf The problem is clean technology companies are not making money, right? http://www.bnn.ca/awash-in-red-ink-canadian-clean-tech-struggling-despite-ottawa-s-green-goals-1.729679

Harper created many innovation funds, sign trade agreements, expanded ports like Montreal, Prince Rupert, etc. Harper was allabout getting goods to market. More could have been done, but pipelines as well as lack of priorities by governments including Ontario on natural resource development set Harper back - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/merchandise-trade-canada-july-2017

Liberals love to fabricate the facts - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/liberal-party-of-canada-election-promises-september-2017. FYI the middle class tax cut was supposed to be revenue neutral and it was not -

MIDDLE CLASS