Rail and the West Midlands
Economy
EMTA Conference Birmingham, 11/11/11
Peter SargantHead of Rail Development,
Centro
Outline of presentation:• The economies of the city regions and the
West Midlands and why transport is important• How rail use has grown and is expected to
continue• Issues influencing rail growth• The need for investment• The case for devolution
PTEs and the City Regions
Six Passenger Transport Executives (PTEs) cover the major urban areas of England outside London and serve a total population of more than 11 million:
• Centro (West Midlands – 2.6M)• Merseytravel (Liverpool – 1.4M)• TfGM (formerly GMPTE, Manchester – 2.6M)• SYPTE (Sheffield -1.3M)• Metro (Leeds – 2.2M)• Nexus (Newcastle – 1M)
•Responsible to ITAs (Integrated Transport Authorities)
Economies in the City Regions• The six PTE city regions generate almost 20% of England’s
wealth• Birmingham, Leeds and Manchester are among Europe’s top 25
cities for business and top 20 for transport links• Transport is important
– Connecting people to jobs, goods and services– Connecting businesses to markets and labour forces
• Poor transport networks hamper growth– Poor transport links and congestion reduce business efficiency– The top two improvements businesses would like to see are improved
transport links with other cities and improved public transport
• Investment in public transport in urban areas can generate significant benefits
The West Midlands has been badly affected by the current recession:
•WM has lowest per head income in UK – 16% below average•Growth slower than UK average•Economic output gap £15 Bn per annum•Unemployment 9.8% - 2nd highest in UK after North East•Worst three wards for unemployment nationally are in Birmingham
The West Midlands Lags the UK in Growth
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
Nom
inal
Grow
th R
ate
National Growth Rate West Midlands Growth Rate
West Midlands Economy
PTE Area Rail Growth
Cross-Cityline created
Oil crisis
SnowHill
opens
Chaselinef irst
trains
Cross-Cityelectrif ication
JewelleryLine opens
Chase linefullyopen
Cross-City6tph
StourbridgeP&R
expansion
Recordoil price
Recessionand rising
unemployment
Recession(Savingsand Loan)
Class 323reliability
Hatf ield disruptionplus 9/11 impacts
and dotcom bubble
Creditcrunch
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
74/7
5
75/7
6
76/7
7
77/7
8
78/7
9
79/8
0
80/8
1
81/8
2
82/8
3
83/8
4
84/8
5
85/8
6
86/8
7
87/8
8
88/8
9
89/9
0
90/9
1
91/9
2
92/9
3
93/9
4
94/9
5
95/9
6
96/9
7
97/9
8
98/9
9
99/0
0
00/0
1
01/0
2
02/0
3
03/0
4
04/0
5
05/0
6
06/0
7
07/0
8
08/0
9
09/1
0
West Midlands Rail Growth• 51% increase in Rail Passenger journeys since 2000• 6.4% increase 2009 to 2010 to 40 million trips per annum
PTE Area Rail Growth has been higher than in London
Growth of Rail Use into Birmingham
• Rail modal share has risen from 17% to 27% since 2001
• Rail industry forecasts show regional urban service growth outstripping other market sectors
Source: Rail Industry Initial Industry Plan, September 2011
Strong Rail Growth Expected to Continue
Market Approx. % of national
passenger km
‘Background’ passenger km
growth 2008-2034
Average rate per year
London Commuter 21% +40% 1.3%
Long Distance 35% +67% 2.0%
Regional Urban Commuter
7% +102% 2.8%
London Other 26% +90% 2.5%
Regional Urban Other 9% +116% 3.0%
Rural 3% +90% 2.5%
Total 100% 75% 2.2%
Issues influencing rail growth in city regions
• Economic restructuring – more service industries locating to city centres
• Road congestion – but driving is still an option• Fuel prices and parking costs• Competitive environment – buses free to compete
with rail services outside London• Rail network capacity – competing demands on
congested network• Train capacity issues• Park and ride availability• Rail industry costs and affordability and fares policy• Investment plans – e.g. Birmingham Gateway• Localism agenda can influence all the above!
Transport Investment needed in PTE areas• Historic funding gap – transport
funding in London almost 3 times that in North and WM
• Rail funding also focused on London – e.g. Crossrail
• Need to develop strategies for investment in PTE area rail networks
• Without investment local commuter services risk being pushed off network
• Optimistic signs that Northern Hub plans are being taken forward in North West
• Current rail industry plans need improving for the West Midlands
Transport funding per head 2008/9
High Speed Rail
• HS2 proposal essential for long term economic growth in WM and North
• Puts WM at the heart of a national high speed network
• Needed to relieve capacity constraints on existing network between WM and London
• Will deliver major journey time benefits between WM and North
• Package of supporting measures needed to maximise benefits
• £1.5Bn annual benefits to the WM from HS2 plus local service improvements
Rail Devolution• Local rail franchises are currently mainly
specified and funded by Central Government
• PTEs believe there would be significant benefits from devolving local rail responsibilities to local transport authorities to:
• Be more responsive to local priorities with an improved ability to react to changing circumstances
• Deliver a better customer offer
• Provide better integration of rail with other modes
• Provide a more balanced view across all transport modes in order to reduce the long-run costs of the railway.
• PTEs believe this would help support the economies of the city regions
• PTEs are currently working with government on this issue
Conclusions• Rail provides high quality, high capacity and
fast access into our city centres
• Rail provides long-distance, regional and local connectivity, as well as freight
• All these sectors are important to support PTE area economies
• Without a long-term investment programme capacity constraints will become a major problem requiring difficult trade-offs
• A long-term investment programme in rail and High Speed Rail is essential to support economic growth
• This should be supported by devolving local rail responsibilities to PTEs
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