lonospheric/Thermospheric Space Weather Issues
R. W. Schunk and J. J. Sojka
Center for Atmospheric and Space SciencesUtah State University
Logan, Utah 84322-4405
CEDAR Tutorial
June 29,1995
Outline
Applications
Weather Features
Causes of Weather
Status of Weather Modeling
Requirements for Forecasting
Applications
Weather disturbances in the ionosphere-thennosphere system affect thefollowing:
Over-The-Horizon (OTH) Radars
Communications
GPS Surveying
Navigation Systems (GPS and VLF)
Satellite Drag
Spacecraft Charging (inTrough)
Surveillance
0 OpticalEmissions/
o Radar Altimetry
Induced EMF at Ground
o Pipelines
0 Power Grids
o Long Telecommunications Cables
Weather Features
Sun-Aligned Arcs
Auroral Arcs
Plasma Patches
Boundary Blobs
Flux Transfer Events
Traveling Convection Vortices
SAID Events
SAR-arcs
Anomalous T^ in E-region
Sporadic E
Spread F
Equatorial Bubbles
Descending Layers
Magnetic Storms
Substorms
Gravity and Tidal Waves
Scintillations
200
100LU
Q 600Z)1—
H 500
0442:33 TO 0457:16 UT
%
0529:36 TO 0544:19 UT
0553:08 TO
0607:51 UT
11 NOVEMBER 1981
I
I
-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
GEOMAGNETIC NORTH DISTANCE FROM CHATANIKA — x 10^ km
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A'm' (s I-, : " ,1 ^ <11 "alp3 X 10 el/cm
-100 0 100 -200 -100
GEOMAGNETIC NORTH DISTANCE FROM CHATANIKA
7sn/)oc((\ (iJFP)
MARCH 1982
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MASSPLOT OF foF2 MEASUREMENTS (At=5 min) QAANAAQ, GREENLAND
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REGULAR WORLD DAYS \7. 18. 19 JANUARY 1989
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LATITUDE/LOCAL TIME NEUTRAL WINDS AND ION DRIFTS
NORTH POLE ^DE-2 FPI/WATSORBIT 7212 IDM/RPA
IMF (nT)
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^X40 ION DRIFTS
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NEUTRAL WINDS
DATE 82328 UT 7:48 o HRS1
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MID-LATITUDE
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CURRENT Ie(V+)
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UPLEG
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BASEUNE CURRENT (A)
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-13.06
212024 UT
20.92 MLT
-28.93 DIP LAT
2.52 LONG
AE-E
370 km
211000 211200 211400 211600 211800 212000 212200 212400 UT
Causes of Weather
Structured Precipitation
Structured Electric Fields
Structured Downward Heat Fluxes
Time Varying Electric Fields
Time Varying Precipitation
Plasma Instabilities
Upward Propagating Gravity and Tidal Waves
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DE-B ION DRIFT VELOCITIES
MLT V ILAT NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
DAY 82 21 UT 6:61 ORBIT 2534
1
1 KM/SEC
Figure 18. An implied convection pattern consistent with observed optical emissions andplasma convection velocities measured by DE 2. The flow lines describing cells III, IV, andV are at the same potential and may be connected 'fingers* or separate convection cells.From Carlson et al. [1988],
Btie fi%l4 S-i-riAcj-uirc
ION DRIFT METER, DE-2UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT DALLAS
OCTOBER 17, 19811634-1646 UT
I KM/SEC
ef «/ (life)
15
Magnetospheric Parameters
Paxameters
• Convection
• Precipitation
• Birkeland Currents
• Heat Flows
Dependence
• IMF By, B,)
• Kp
Issues
Statistical Patterns
Instantaneous Patterns
Spatial Structure
Temporal Variations
Transition Time-Scales
17
Statistical Patterns
Southward IMF
0 2-Cell Convection
0 Precipitation
Northward IMF
0 ^ Convection
0 3-Cell Convection
0 Distorted 2-Cell Convection
0 Turbulent
0 Sun-AlignedArcs
0 0-Aurora
0 Unifonn Precipitation (in polar cap)
0 Precipitation in Classical Oval
1i
0.2-0.4
0.4 - 0.6
0.6 - 0.8
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FigTire 10. Distorted two-cell convection patterns for a strongly nortlward and for>0(left dial) and <0(right dial) in the northern hem^sphere. From Heppner and
Mavnaxd [1987].
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SUNALIGNEO ARCSDAWN-OUSK DRIFT (PREDOMINANT)
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Figure 11. Schematic illustration ofsun-aligned arcs in the polar cap for a northward IMF.From Buchau et al. fl983].
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Status of Northward IMF Convectioa
Rich and Hairston (1994)
Comprehensive Study Using DMSP F8 and F9 Satellites
The development of more than 2 convection cellsfor northward IMF is either uncommon or nonexistent.A distorted 2-ceU pattern occurs, not a 4-cellpattern.
Weimer (1995)
Comprehensive StudyUsing DE 2 SatelliteData
For northward IMF, evidently there are 4 convection cells,rather than a distortion of the 2-ceIl pattem.
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Universal Time
Figure 21. Variation of the interplanetary magnetic field (B,, Bg, Br) versus universaltime for a representative 14-liour period. From Roble et al. (1987).
as-
Status of Weather Modeling
Climatology
Sun-Aligned Polar Cap Arcs
Traveling Convection Vortices
Plasma Patches
Tides and Gravity Waves
SAID Events
Storms and Substorms
%6
GLOBAL IONOSPHERE MODEL
• 3-dimensional, time-dependent
• 100-1000 km altitude range
• Densities & velocities for electrons and
N0+, 02+, N2+, 0+, N+, He+
• Ion and electron temperatures
Inputs Needed
• Magnetospheric electric field
Auroral oval
• Neutral atmosphere
Neutral wind
• Magnetospheric Heat Flow
108 RUNS OF USUIONOSPHERIC MODEL
Season - Equinox
- June Solstice
- December Solstice
Solar Activity - High Fio.7 = 210
- Mid Fio.7 = 130
-Low Fio.7 = 70
Geomagnetic Activity
- High Kp = 6.0- Mid Kp = 3.5- Low Kp = 1.0
Heppner-Maynard Convection (Bz < 0)- By >0-By<0
Northem and Southem Hemispheres
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Model Inputs
Heppner-Maynard Convection
Hardy Auroral Oval
MSIS Atmosphere
Hedin Winds
Displaced Poles
Diumally Reproducible Results
"Climatology"
NPDE04 UT0500 NPDE04 UT1700
-•y'Bm
\
3.5 130 84357 3.5 130 84357
3.75 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75 5.00 5.25 5.50 5.75 6.00
20-Jaii-9l pl2ascslas.f npdeOJxae npdeO^ase
0+ 300 km
NPDE13 UT1700 NPDE22 UT1700
1.0 130 84357 6.0 130 84357
3.75 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75 5.00 5.25 5.50 5.75 6.00
2S-Jan-9t 22:S2:57 pl2asalas./ npdelSutic npde'̂ Z.aic
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0+ 300 km
NPDE04 UT1700 NPDE05 UT1700
3.5 130 84357 3.5 130 84173
4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75 5.00 5.25 5.50 5.75 6.00
23-Jon-9l 2I;2J:-)2 pl^scslas.f npdeOJ.aK np<i^V^•a3c
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TYPE 1 SUNALIGNED ARCSDAWN-DUSK DRIFT (PREDOMINANT)
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CGLT
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TYPE 2 PATCHES
ANTI-SUNWARD DRIFT
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SIPFIELD
OF VIEW
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1200 MLT
1800- 0600
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5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0
Logio Nn,F2
NCAR-TGCM Simulation
Equinox Transition Study
• September 18-19,1984
Parameterized Convection and R:ecipitationModels for Entire Period
• NOAA & DMSP Particle Data
• AMIE Technique for Convection
• Semi-diumal Tides
Several Quiet Days Followed by Storm
Crowley et al. (1989)
rn
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Forecasting: What's Needed?
Requirements range from hours to 30 or 90 days forecast ofthe ITM system.
The latter arise from the need to define optimal usablecommunication links.
Typically, 12 hours to a day is a good forecast for severeweather related problems, i.e., satellite drag, spacecraftdamage, etc.
How can we do this?
An example on 14 April 1994, from Murray Dryer,SEL, NOAA, shows forecasters had no evidence of aCME ejection. However, soft x-ray images fromYOHKOH (Japanese satellite) were FAXed to SEL.They showed a very extended short-lived filament.Forecast was made ~ 2-3 days to reach Earth and 7 daysto reach Ulysses.
Forecasting: Science Issues
When a CME arrives at the Earth, how do you convert this knowledge ioitoconvection and precipitation patterns? How long will the storm last?
For non-storm conditions, how do you forecast and Dst variations?That is, how do you forecast convection and precipitation pattemvariations?
Models of convection and precipitation do not exist for severe stoms. Across-tail potential of 216 kV was observed, but this corresponds to a iT =14.
The 'average' convection pattem for northwardIMF has not been clearlyidentified
The spatial stracture seen m the ionosphere-thermosphere system needs tobe incorporated into the forecast models. Multi-grids or nested models arerequired.
More work needs to be done on establishing how the convection andprecipitation patterns vary with time.
0 AMIE approach is the state-of-the-art, but needs validation.
^0 PCO is important.
Need to predict substorm onset.
Real-time monitoring is important to update forecast models.
Need a specification of upward propagating gravity and tidal waves.
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