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4 BusinessLine WEDNESDAY • FEBRUARY 5 • 2020NEWS
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6,900 cases of online banking frauds New Delhi, February 4
Nearly 6,900 cases of online banking frauds
were registered in the country in 2017-18, the
Lok Sabha was informed on Tuesday. Minister
of State for Home G Kishan Reddy said with
the rapid increase in use of cyber space, the
number of cyber crimes is also increasing.
Reddy said in order to prevent online frauds
and protect users, the Ministry of Home Affairs
has taken several steps, including formation
of an Inter-Ministerial Committee on Phone
Fraud PTI
7,591 MW RE capacity in April-Dec New Delhi, February 4
India has commissioned
renewable energy (RE)
projects totalling
7,591.99 MW during
April-December, 2019-20,
Parliament was informed
on Tuesday. Another
34,160 MW capacity is
under implementation,
Renewable Energy
Minister RK Singh said while replying to a
question during Question Hour in the Rajya
Sabha. The RE capacity addition in 2019-20 is
expected to exceed the capacity addition
achieved in 2018-19 which stood at 8,532.22
MW, he said. Singh further said most of the RE
projects are being implemented by private
sector developers selected through a
transparent competitive bidding process. PTI
RK Singh
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PRESS TRUST OF INDIA
New Delhi, February 4
Moody’s Investors Service onTuesday said economic growthprojections made by FinanceMinister Nirmala Sitharaman inher Budget for 202021 appearambitious given the structuraland cyclical challenges facingthe Indian economy.
The Budget expects nominalGDP growth of 10 per cent in202021, followed by 12.6 per centand 12.8 per cent in FY2022 and2023. But, Moody’s saw GDPgrowth rising to around 8.7 percent in the next fi��nancial year beginning April 1 from about 7.5per cent in the current fi��scal.
Stating that the growth outlook will remain weak, it has putreal GDP growth during the current fi��scal ending March 31 at 4.9per cent, slightly below the gov
ernment’s forecast of 5 per cent.For the next fi��scal, it estimatedreal GDP growth of 5.5 per cent,lower than 66.5 per cent projected by the government’s Economic Survey.
“Growth has remained relatively weak as a prolonged deleveraging cycle and ongoingstress among nonbanking fi��nancial institutions (NBFIs),which has constrained the fi��nancial system’s overall provision ofcredit, weigh on consumptionand investment,” it said in a detailed commentary on theBudget.
Cut in forecastFor the next 202021 fi��scal, itlowered real GDP growth forecasts to 5.5 per cent from 6.3 percent previous estimate. And forthe following fi��scal, it put thereal GDP growth at 6 per centfrom 6.7 per cent projectedearlier.
“The signifi��cant slowdown infi��nancial sector credit growth
from NBFI liquidity constraintsand asset quality issues amongpublic sector banks has exacerbated prolonged weakness inprivate investment and a material decline in consumption, duein part to fi��nancial stress amongrural households and weak jobcreation,” Moody’s said.
The nominal GDP growth, itsaid, has also declined signifi��cantly. Following 11.2 per cent expansion in 201819, the government had forecast 12 per centnominal GDP growth in its July2019 budget for the currentfi��scal.
However, according to the government’s fi��rst advance estimate
of GDP last month, nominalGDP growth is likely fell to amuch lower rate of around 7.5per cent for full 201920.
“These forecasts (made theBudget) appear ambitiousgiven the combination ofstructural and cyclical challenges that the Indian economy faces,” it said.
Moody’s said the government will face challenges inachieving its defi��cit target forthe fi��scal year ending March2021, amid persistent structural and cyclical headwinds togrowth.
Moody’s says Budget numbers areambitious, pegs FY20 growth at 4.9%Lowers FY21 growth
projection to
5.5% from 6.3%
Growth pangs /ISTOCKPHOTO
WX“The significant slowdown
in financial sector credit
growth from NBFI
liquidity constraints and
asset quality issues among
public sector banks has
exacerbated prolonged
weakness in private
investment”
ASHWINI PHADNIS
New Delhi, February 4
The proposed divestment ofAir India Transport ServicesLimited (AITSL) , the groundhandling subsidiary of AirIndia, has been cancelled.
Sources said now new fi��nancial data is available onthe basis of which freshbids can be called.
This divestment beingcalled off�� will not aff��ect theongoing selloff�� of Air Indiaand Air India Express.
AITSL is a fully ownedsubsidiary of Air India Ltd,which was formed in 2013with the aim of providingunifi��ed ground handlingservices (Ramp, Passenger,Baggage, Cargo Handlingand Cabin Cleaning) underthe brand name ‘Air IndiaAirport Services’.
Seeking clarityEarlier, companies interested in bidding for AITSLhad sought clarity on anumber of issues including
the prospects of AITSL’s AirIndia business post the divestment of Air India andwhether the new ownerwill be given a free hand todeal with its currentemployees.
There were also issuesover how long the newcompany, post disinvestment, will continue gettinggrandfather rights thatAITSLcurrently enjoys.
Grandfather rights allowsAITSL to carry on businessin perpetuity at various airports around the country.
AITSL currently providesground handling servicesat 80 airports.
Apart from handling thefl��ights of Air India Ltd andits subsidiary companies,ground handling is alsoprovided for 37 foreignscheduled airlines, threedomestic scheduled airlines, four regional airlines,12 seasonal charter airlines,23 foreign airlines availingperishable cargo handling.
Air India Transport Servicesdivestment plan grounded
MEENAKSHI VERMA AMBWANIAMITI SEN
New Delhi, February 4
The Centre is looking at striking a delicate balance in its efforts to check misuse of FreeTrade Agreements (FTA) by unscrupulous importers and ensuring that their use by legitimate businesses is notdiscouraged.
“A task force could be set upunder the Department of Revenue Intelligence with members from other Departmentsincluding Commerce and Industry. It will examine in detailwhat measures can be put inplace to check fraudulent imports while not making theprovisions so onerous thatthey act as a deterrent to genuine people from using the FTAroute,” an offi��cial familiar withthe matter told BusinessLine.
Finance Minister NirmalaSitharaman, in her Budgetspeech, had pointed out thatundue claims of FTA benefi��tswere posing a threat to domestic industry and the government would take measuresto clamp down on importssuch as reviewing rules of origin (ROO) requirements.
ROO determine whetherenough value addition tookplace in the FTA partner country for the import to qualify asoriginating from there. It issometimes fl��outed by importers to wrongly claim that a particular import is originatingfrom an FTA partner country soas to pocket the benefi��ts.
The Customs Department,reportedly, is looking at retrospectively verifying costingdata, valueaddition compliance of imports and certifi��c
ates of origin up to a period offi��ve years from the date ofimport.
The government is alsolikely to look at the ROO provisions in some of the existingtrade pacts, for instance theone signed with Bangladesh,and take a call on whether theyneed to be furtherstrengthened, the offi��cial said.
TV industry concernsThe TV industry has been oneof the key sectors that has beenraising concerns about misuseof FTAs .
The Ministry of Electronicsand Information Technologyhad last year informed the LokSabha that the value of importof televisions from Vietnam(which is part of the IndiaASEAN FTA) saw a 37fold increase to ₹��2,317 crore in 201819,compared to ₹��62 crore in 201718.
Overall, televisions worth₹��7,224 crore were imported in
201819 and China, Vietnam,Malaysia, Hong Kong andTaiwan were among the topfi��ve countries for such imports, according to the government data.
“This kind of scrutiny ismuch needed as some playershave been misusing FTAs to import fi��nished LED TVs. Therehave been incidents, wherecertain players have importedproducts with an origin of certifi��cate that does not accurately refl��ect the country wherethese products have been actu
ally manufactured,” saidAvneet Singh Marwah, CEO, Super Plastronics Pvt Ltd (SPPL),that sells Kodak and Thomsonbranded televisions in thecountry.
He added that rather thaninvesting in domestic manufacturing these players relyheavily on imported fi��nishedTV sets from FTA countries.
However, an eff��ort will alsobe made to ensure that anymove to check FTA misuse doesnot end up penalising genuineusers of the trade pacts and actas a disincentive for tradingunder the pacts.
“At present, FTA usage in India is already very low becausethe industry prefers to exportand import through the normal route to avoid getting intothe hassles of providing documents. The government needsto see that greater scrutiny ofimports does not lead to discouraging genuine users ofthe FTA route,” the offi��cial said.
DRI-led team plans measures to check misuseof FTAs without affecting genuine playersIn line with Budget proposals, move also
to re-work ‘Rules of Origin’ provisions
WXThe Customs
Department, reportedly,
is looking at
retrospectively verifying
costing data, value-
addition compliance of
imports and certificates
of origin up to a period
of five years from the
date of import.
SURABHI
Mumbai, February 4
Is the Budget being too ambitious with its tax collection targets, especially amid the economic slowdown and the cut incorporate tax rates?
The tax targets seem to haveraised eyebrows amonganalysts.Even a cursory look at previousBudgets shows that the actualcollections in at least the last twoyears have been lower than theestimates.
This could mean more relianceon nontax revenues, such as disinvestment proceeds, for maintaining the fi��scal defi��cit at the targeted at 3.5 per cent of GDP forFY21.
Gross tax revenueBudget 202021 has pegged thegross tax revenue (GTR) at₹��24,23,020 crore, which isslightly lower than the₹��24,61,194.93crore Budget Estimate (BE) for 201920. However, itmarks a near 12 per cent increaseover the Revised Estimate (RE) of₹��21,63,423 crore for this fi��scal.
“GTR has been pegged at₹��21,63,423 crore in RE 201920,which refl��ects a decrease of₹��2,97,772 crore from BE 201920.The reasons for this shortfall arethe reductions in corporate tax,”the Budget document said.
In 201920, the documentnotes, GTR slowed down due tolesserthananticipated GST collections and a reduction in corporate tax rates. GDP growth is estimated to recover to 66.5 percent in 202021 from the estimated 5 per cent this fi��scal.
In 201819 as well, the actual
GTR receipts, at ₹��20,80,465.43crore, were lower than what wasanticipated in the BE and RE. In201819, GTR in the BE was₹��22,71,241.56 crore while in theRE, it was pegged at ₹��22,48,175.2crore. Similarly, in 201718, the actual GTR at ₹��19,19,008.71 crorewas lower than the RE of₹��19,46,119.15 crore.
Analysts have also pointed outthat the nominal GDP growth of10 per cent assumed in thisBudget could have downsiderisks, given the subdued environment both domestically and externally. CRISIL has forecast nominal GDP growth at 9.5 per centnext fi��scal.
“As opposed to a gross tax revenue buoyancy of 0.5 achieved infi��scal 2020, the government hasbudgeted a buoyancy of 1.2 forFY21 (also higher than the last 10year average of 1.0), which couldbe challenging to achieve in anenvironment of subduedgrowth,” CRISIL noted. A researchnote by Abheek Barua, Chief Economist, HDFC Bank, also notedthat given the muted growth environment, the assumptions on
tax collections for next fi��scal looksomewhat stretched. And theGTR projections seem optimisticgiven the current growth slowdown. “Direct tax collections arebudgeted to grow 12 per cent in202021, compared to 4 per centthis fi��scal This is despite the₹��4,000crore loss in revenue expected from the reduction in incometax cuts,” the report said.
It also pointed out that theBudget has pegged GST collections at ₹��6.9lakh crore. “Our calculations show that a monthlyrun rate of ₹��1.06lakh crore is required to meet the target,” it added. Meanwhile, the proceedsfrom PSU disinvestments, including that of LIC, is pegged at ₹��2.1lakh crore next fi��scal, as compared to the RE of ₹��65,000 crorethis fi��scal.
Tax collection targets: Has theBudget set the bar too high?
PRATIM RANJAN BOSE
Guwahati February 4
The Budget proposal to replace all conventional electricity meters by smart prepaidmetres in the next threeyears, has created a huge fl��utter in the country’s fi��nancially weak electricity distribution sector, cateringroughly to 21.4 crore (99.99per cent) households.
At the current price of approximately ₹��7,500 a smartprepaid metre, this movewould require ₹��1,60,500crore. Assuming the massprocurement will bringdown the average cost of ameters to ₹��3,000; Discomswill still require over₹��64,000 crore in the nextthree years.
Colossal wasteRaising such huge fundsfrom the market is very diffi��cult for majority of the Discoms , which are already fi��nancially stressed.
The Discoms’ fi��nancialwoes are impacting the generation segment too.
As in November 2019, thegeneration sector had outstanding payment dues of₹��81,000 crore from the Discoms. States such as Rajasthan, which have undergone debtrestructuringunder the UDAY scheme, reported 80 per cent rise in outstanding in 2019 (January toDecember).
Since the residential segment consumes lesser electricity, this move will neitherbenefi��t the consumers northe Discoms.
In West Bengal not morethan 15 per cent of the 1.5crore subscribers consumeover 300 units a month. Thissection along with commercial and industrial users
cross subsidise the rest of the85 per cent residentialsubscribers.
Finance Minister NirmalaSitharaman in her Budgetsaid, “The Ministry intends topromote ‘smart’ metering. Iurge all the States and UnionTerritories to replace conventional energy meters by prepaid smart meters in the next3 years. Also, this would giveconsumers the freedom tochoose the supplier and rateas per their requirements”.
Analysts, Discom offi��cialsand State electricity regulators feel that the Finance Minister is mixing up issues.
First, there is a case forswitching from the conventional meters to regular prepaid at an extra cost of ₹��5001,200 each. This will cost thedistribution sector ₹��15,000crore. The manufacturers ofsmart meters can be nudgedto bring down the price.
The exercise will benefi��tDiscoms as a large chunk ofsubscribers pay so little thatoften it doesn’t cover the costof distributing and collecting monthly bills. The wholeprocess can be eliminated inthe case of prepaid meters.
Target premium segmentSmart meters is a welcomestep in the premium household segment and mostly tothe electricity guzzling commercial and industrial sector.This segment pays hefty electricity bills and will be in favour of better meters to saveon costs.
Smart meters generatequality data on consumption. Introduction of suchmeters, particularly in thecommercial segment (thatincludes retail showrooms,malls etc) and industry, willhelp DISCOMS to understand
the demand patterns better. But what about smart pre
paid? Since the Discoms arealready milking this sectionfor the benefi��t of vast majority, Can it now be forced topay in advance?
Choice of supplierIt is not clear, why the Minister took up this issue. Theoretically large industrial con
sumers already have theoption of open access mechanism. In reality, however,most Discoms barely allowgood customers to migrateand put in place artifi��cialhurdles.
A policy on supply sectorfranchise is under preparation where the wire will beowned by an agency, probably Discoms, and con
sumers will have the right tochose their suppliers. Butthis too is not for bulk consumers, who either enjoycrosssubsidy or do not bringany surplus revenue to theDiscom.
This is because portabilityof suppliers may come at acost and a majority of consumers will fi��nd it fi��nanciallyunviable.
Smart prepaid meters: A case of misplaced priorities? The Budget proposal on smart prepaid
meters is neither likely to benefit
consumers nor Discoms, say analysts
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