Queen’s Global MarketsA PREMIER UNDERGRADUATE THINK-TANK
ISIS and the Middle East
Kyle Butler | Allan Lee | Sarah Fadel | Shahaan Azhar 10.29.2014
The Fate of Hegemony in the Middle East
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Agenda1. Religion and the War on Terror
2. Current ISIS Operations
3. Key Players: strategic interests in the Middle East
4. Conclusions & Predictions
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Geographic Breakdown of IdeologiesReligious discrepancies in the Middle East insinuate conflict
Source: The Shia Revival
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The War on Terror: U.S.’ FailureThe United States made a number of decisions which resulted in its failure in the “war on terror”
Ignoring Key Players Ineffective Iraqi Government
Source: Huffington Post
The US failed to deal with two key players
during the climax of the war on terror: Saudi
Arabia and Pakistan Donors from Saudi Arabia have contributed
the majority of funds to Sunni terrorist groups
worldwide In addition Bin Laden was a member of the
Saudi elite as well his father was an associate
of the Saudi monarch Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence assisted
in the evacuation of thousands of top
commanders of both the Taliban and Al Qaeda The US failed to confront both of these players
because they are important American allies Saudi Arabia is a key market for American
arms as well a key source of oil
The US bears a large amount of
responsibility for political turmoil that has
occurred in Iraq US put a tremendous amount of pressure
on Baghdad to complete its transformation
to a inclusive democratic government American officials including Vice President
Joe Biden and Brett McGurk supported
Maliki over other candidates The Obama administration had been
pushing out Maliki since June which resulted
in another rushed appointment of al-Abadi America has tried to rush the Iraqi political
process which has resulted in the poor
results
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Iraq’s LeadershipWill Iraq’s new leadership result in change?
Saddam Hussein Nouri al-Maliki Haider al-Abadi
Source: BBC
Committed vast atrocities
by using chemical weapons
against Kurds and Shia
citizens during his thirty
year tenure Continual marginalization of
Kurdish and Shia population
fueled bitter animosity
between various sects Deposition created an
opportunity for Iraqi Shias
to gain greater control of
the country
Maliki was elected, largely
with backing from the US,
with the goal of restoring
peace between the Iraqi
factions Instead, Maliki took the
occasion to seek revenge
against the Sunni
brutalities by handing over
the majority of legislative
power to Shias This has insinuated the
current crisis as ISIS gains
support from enraged
Sunnis
New PM as mounting
pressure caused Maliki to
resign Abadi has the incredibly
difficult task to rebuild trust
between the Government,
Sunnis, and Kurds Although he belongs to the
fairly extreme Dawa party,
his political stance during
his tenure was generally
more moderate than those
of both his predecessor and
his party Picture of Hussein Picture of Hussein
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ISIS BackgroundBeginnings of the world’s most radical extremist organization
ISIS Origins
Recent Uprising
Originally founded as Al Qaeda’s Iraqi offspring, but has separated due to differences in ideology
regarding use of brutality and force After gaining much influence in the early 2000s, successful American lead strikes as well as local
backlash for ISIS brutality had all but decimated ISIS forces and support As American troops withdrew, ISIS focused on prison breaks to free and recruit terrorists and
Hussein’s ranks of experienced ex-commanders Vision of establishing an Islamic State based upon radical interpretation of Islam among Sunni
majority districts among Iraq, Syria, and beyond
Source: Wikipedia
Took advantage of civil war in Syria to
recruit members and promote extremist
ideology Victories against Syrian government
provided funding, weapons, and battle
seasoned extremists that allowed ISIS to
confront Iraqi military
ISLAMIC STATE OF IRAQ AND THE
LEVANT
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ISIS ConquestThe speed and ruthlessness of the Iraq Northern Offensive caught the world off guard
Source: (Map) US Officials, Institute for the Study of War, The Long War Journal
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ISIS ConquestThe speed and ruthlessness of the Iraq Northern Offensive caught the world off guard
Iraq Northern Offensive
Source: (Map) US Officials, Institute for the Study of War, The Long War Journal
After capturing the major
city of Fallujah in January,
the Iraqi government
halfheartedly fought back
with little success In June, 800 ISIS militants
captured Mosul overnight
defeating 30,000+ Sunni
soldiers ISIS overran Syrian and
Iraqi military bases as well
massacred villages at a
time, destroying the
remaining confidence in
Iraqi soldiers ISIS took advantage of
panic to attack multiple
cities while Iraqi army was
in disarray
Map of ISIS conquests on June 23, with the majority of gains coming after June 5th Mosul attack
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ISIS PowerUnprecedented military and financial resources for a terrorist organization
Key Resources
Source: (Map) Aaron Y. Zelin, International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence
Richest terrorist organization with over $1
billion Large cache of US military arms, mortars, and
armored vehicles captured from fleeing Iraqi
army Steady stream of revenue from illicit business
activities o I.e. Smuggling oil and gas, selling
electricity to Syrian government,
collecting tax and ransom o Many new recruits were attracted to ISIS
due to high wages that few jobs could
provideo Money used to buy black market weapons
Areas of Strength
Many battle hardened extremists with experience
fighting against Americans and Assad Fast moving strikes in parallel with suicide attacks
are unpredictable tactics that are hard to fend
against Powerful social media campaign that instills fear in
opponents and attracts recruits that include
foreign jihadists Professionally designed propaganda focuses on
marginalization and oppression of Sunnis by Shia
and has been used effectively to recruit and gain
local support o Extensively uses videos, magazines, and
news to promote ideology
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Current ISIS SituationHalting ISIS and the counterattack
US Action
Source: Foreign Policy, Wikipedia, Vox.com
Obama’s ISIS Strategy Repeatedly stressed “no boots on ground”
policy and stated that the conflict can only be
resolved by Iraqis US and allies have sent over military advisors
and launched coalition airstrikes against ISIS
targets Freeing ISIS held territory will be a long term
endeavor driven mainly by Iraqi forces
Counter Attack 1: Air Strikes
Main Defense Against ISIS Short Term Air strikes has worked effectively in repelling
large scale ISIS attacks Pipelines and refineries targeted to stop main
source of ISIS cash flow Targets also include heavy artilleries and
vehicles that have delivered ISIS game
changing firepower
Counter Attack 2: Local forces
Long Term Solution (6-12 months) Iraqi army is mainly on the defensive but
should hold out well since the majority of Iraqi
held territory is now of Shia majority with
loyal soldiers and tribes Structural changes within the army will be
required to fix corruption, poor training, and
moral before launching offensive against ISIS US currently arming and training fiercely
patriotic Kurdish and moderate Syrian rebels
to fight ISIS
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Turkey
Despite public disapproval, privately Turkey stands to benefit
from ISIS’ existence
Turkey will refuse to cooperate with NATO requests for military
support and access to its military base since ISIS allows Turkey to
absolve itself temporarily from its longstanding troubled
relationship with the Turkish Kurds, including the terrorist
organization PKK (Kurdish Worker’s Party)
Turkey may help fight ISIS if a no-fly zone is established against
the Syrian regime, which would eliminate Assad’s strategic air
power advantage over rebels
We believe that Turkey’s desire to stifle Kurdish power outweighs
its desire to see the Assad regime topple and as such, Turkey will
continue to abstain from intervening in the fight against ISIS
Why the NATO nation is unwilling to fight ISIS
Turkey has been criticized for its role
as a bystander
Source: Foreign Policy
Turkey’s Foreign Policy
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SyriaOpportunistic extremists intensify the battle for supremacy
Source: The Economist, BBC
A blessing in disguise
The power vacuum and armed
conflict allowed ISIS to easily
capture vast territory in Syria. There has been widespread
conflict between various Sunni
based rebel groups and ISIS,
although they share the same
goal. The Syrian government will
refrain from directly fighting
ISIS. Instead it will conserve its
resources and wait for
international forces to weaken
the group. As the international coalition
attacks ISIS, the Syrian
government can consolidate its
troops and eliminate other Sunni
groups vying for control Ultimately, the Syrian
government will be an unlikely
beneficiary of the current
conflict
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Saudi ArabiaThe Gulf’s most powerful country remains fearful of reprisal
Source: Financial Times, Huffington Post
Current Operations
Future Actions Long-term effects
We believe that the Kingdom will side with Iran for the first time in its diplomatic history, since
ISIS directly undermines the Islamic beliefs that the Saudi state are built upon
The KSA has been funding Sunni factions to fight against Bashar Al- Assad’s Shia-led government
for the past three years in Syria without much success
Saudi Arabia will only remain impartial with
Iran until the conflict is over. Following the
demise of ISIS, it will once again resume its
plan to debilitate the Shia power Riyadh will also devise a strategy to gain
control of Shia-ruled Syria in order to
prevent the Iranian alliance from forming The Saudi government sees this as an
opportunity to consolidate the region and
extend their powerful influence
The kingdom will continue to support
various groups that seek to defeat the ISIS However, Saudi will refrain from directly
supplying military, logistical, or intelligence-
based resources and assets out of
apprehension regarding repercussions from
ultra-conservative nationals
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IranAn unusual alliance convolutes an already complex situation
Source: Wall Street Journal, The Star
Iran’s mission is to create an
alliance between Shia-majority
countries so that it challenge
regional powers As a result of Iran’s long-term plans,
Iran was the first country to aid Iraq
against the ISIS assault Iran will continue to quell the
extremist threat in Iraq using all
means necessary. It will also
continue to support the Syrian
government against Sunni rebel
groups Iran will likely appear stronger after
this conflict. By helping get rid of
extremist Sunni rebel groups in both
Iraq and Syria, it will be in a position
to further challenge Saudi Arabia as
the dominant player in the region
and will move closer to creating a
Shia alliance.
Iran’s Plan for a Shia Nexus
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The United States in the Middle EastAmerica continues its decade-long struggle to establish stability given its deteriorating status as the world’s Moral Leader
Expected Foreign Policy The U.S. Juggling Act We believe that American policy will be
directed at finding a U.S.-friendly government,
whether democratic or not, especially since
most democratically elected or militaristically
enforced governments in the region
perpetuate extremist Islamic regimes
America will attempt to leverage its
diplomatic relations with key players Iran,
Israel and Saudi Arabia to weaken the Assad
Regime, and ultimately remove the disorder
that fuels ISIS’ operations
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Resolution of the Iranian Nuclear Crisis Survival contingent on Instability
ISIS can only survive as long as there is
disorder amongst its neighbors, but
once that is resolved, the new status
quo will defeat it ISIS itself has no ability to create the
new status quo Iranian Nuclear Crisis
Resolution of Iranian nuclear issue will
be fundamental to order Iranians feel threatened by the U.S.
and Saudi Arabia, so they support
Assad in Syria; they must feel secure
before abandoning Assad regime Reconstitution of Iraq and Syria
A reconstituted Iraq and Syria will be
strong enough to topple ISIS and be
more successful at dealing with similar
groups in the future
The United States must work with regional players to resolve the Iranian nuclear program
How to Defeat ISIS Feasibility
The U.S. continues to be the global
hegemon U.S. can use its influence to achieve
regional order The U.S. has already made
unprecedented moves towards accepting
the Iranian Nuclear Program Obama administration has engaged in
serious and positive discussions with
Iran American Policy can reasonably impose a
loose resolution between Israel, Saudi
Arabia, and Iran Unlike other issues such as the
Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Israel, Saudi
Arabia and Iran seem willing to
cooperate on ISIS In general, the costs of enforcing
undemocratic regimes weaken groups
like ISIS over time. History is on
Democracy’s side in the long term
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