Q3 2016 INVESTOR PRESENTATION
1
01REFINING INDUSTRY
02COMPANY OVERVIEW
03KEY FINANCIALS
04INVESTMENTS
CONTENTS
01 Refining Industry
102,8
61,4
50,4
26,0
50,7
44,9
46,6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Brent Crude Oil Prices
$/Bbl
CONS
Already existing excess crude
supply
Decreasing outages in Nigeria
and Libya
Cooling of Chinese economy
High production from the OPEC
producers
Increase in the prices
encouraged swing producers
PROS
OPEC meeting in 30th November
Disruptions in Venezuela
End of refinery maintenance season
High consumption due to the lower
price environment
Upcoming increase in farming
consumption and normal weather
4
Refinery Capacity Change
810 640
160 195 52-255
-543 -486
334
150
340 13540
-145
-109 -266
160
250
181
84180
-240
65
-421
530
526
0 302
-5
-775
-546
520
400
120
390
-140
305
-352
270
510
0
198
-443
63
-189
200
880
0
309
-100
20
-218
-3.000
-2.000
-1.000
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
China India Middle East Other Asia Other Japan North America Europe
Tho
usa
nd
Bar
rels
/Day
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Tüpraş, Reuters, Reports
1.6781.790
1.0411.110
799885
1.000
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
5
Turkish Economy Strengths
79
80
81
81
82
77
78
78
79
79
80
80
81
81
82
82
83
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Population (mn)
0-40 yrs >65%
9,2 8,80
2,10
4,20
3,004,00
3,2
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (f)
GDP Forecast (Million USD)
20,99
21,72
22,48
23,27
24,08
20
21
22
23
24
25
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Diesel Consumption% 14,72
127 134
176
213
0
50
100
150
200
250
2014 2015 2020 2030
Passenger car ownership per thousand people
%67
6Source: EMRA, TSI
Tüpraş, Competitive Advantage
7
Added Value
Created by Tüpraş
Best Fit for the Market with high diesel yield
High Complexity of Tüpraş
Presence in all overTurkey through
refineries and terminals
Local Market Dynamics
High Growth
Short on Diesel
Import Parity Pricing(Freight advantage of
Tüpraş)
Cost Base of Tüpraş
Energy Efficient
Crude Oil & FeedstockCost Advantage
Economies of Scale
8
8,22 7,64 8,115,00
7,00
9,00
11,00
13,00
15,00
17,00
19,00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Agu Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jet Fuel
2014 2015 2016 T
8,89 8,659,38
12,00
5,00
7,00
9,00
11,00
13,00
15,00
17,00
19,00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Agu Sep Oct Nov Dec
Diesel
2014 2015 2016 T
Note: 2009-March 2016 Platts Data 6October , 2016 (November-December) estimation
PIRA-JBC
Product Crack ($/bbl)
9
Product Crack ($/bbl)
-4,09
-5,92
-14,00
-12,00
-10,00
-8,00
-6,00
-4,00
-2,00
0,00
2,00
4,00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Agu Sep Oct Nov Dec
Naphta
2014 2015 2016 T
9,1511,37 12,35
13,37
0,00
5,00
10,00
15,00
20,00
25,00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Agu Sep Oct Nov Dec
Gasoline
2014 2015 2016 T
-18,04 -18,94
-50,00
-45,00
-40,00
-35,00
-30,00
-25,00
-20,00
-15,00
-10,00
-5,00
0,00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Agu Sep Oct Nov Dec
LPG
2014 2015 2016 T
Note: 2009-March 2016 Platts Data 6 October, 2016 (November-December) estimation
PIRA-JBC
Quarterly Product Crack Margins ($/bbl)
102015 20162011-2014
15,214,5
10,913,0
19,418,9
13,8
Q1 Q4Q3Q2
-13,2
-15,0
-10,6
-15,7
-13,1-12,0
-11,6
Q1 Q4Q3Q2
7,3 7,7 7,99,4
11,210,7
14,4
Q1 Q4Q3Q2
15,7
15,214,6
10,18,9
9,27,9
Q1 Q4Q3Q2
Crude Price Differentials ($/bbl)
11
-12
-8
-4
0
Price Differentials, $/bbl
Ural Iran Light (KI) Iran Heavy (KI) Kirkuk Arab. Heavy Siberian Light CPC
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2011-2014 Min/Max 2015 2016
Ural Differentials, $/bbl
Med Complex Refining Margins
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Gro
ss M
argi
n $
/bb
l
Max-Min 2004-2009 Average 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
12
Turkish Sector Outlook
One of the primary driver of demand is growing vehicle park
Auto sales continue to massively outstrip removals
Very high gasoline tax has led to LPG & Diesel substitution
In October, car and light commercial vehicle market grew by 29,2%
35,8 41,2 50,6 58,3 64,5 76,1 85,4 97,573,5 77,8
43,6 44,352,2 59,4 65,4
73,480,3
83,9
66,7 55,479,4 85,5102,8
117,6130,0
149,5165,7
181,4
140,2 133,2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20159M
20169M
Air Passengers - Million
Domestic
International
Jet Fuel demand will continue to grow Highly competitive liberalised market
Big infrastructure investments (3rd airport, 3rd bridge…)
Istanbul has become a hub for Turkish Airlines
Fuel Oil demand is declining Natural gas substitution
Switching is dependent on price
Long Term Asphalt Demand Growth Infrastructure investments
¹By the end of April
3,88 3,19 2,86 2,93 2,95
1,26 2,90 4,08 3,35 3,500,39
1,38
2,88 4,27 4,325,8
7,5
9,910,6 10,8
0
4
8
12
16
2005 2010 2014 2015 2016(1)
Mill
ion
un
it
Gasoline LPG Diesel Unknown
13
8 Months 2016 - Turkish Consumption (Million tons)
13,30
14,44
10 11 12 13 14 15
2015
2016
Diesel
0,89
0,93
0,0 0,4 0,8 1,2
2015
2016
Domestic Jet Fuel
1,39
1,49
0,8 1,0 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8
2015
2016
Gasoline
0,36
0,37
0,10 0,20 0,30 0,40 0,50
2015
2016
Fuel Oil*
Source: EMRA
*bunker excluded.
+8.6 %
+1.5 %+6.9 %
+4,7 %
Note: Bunker Sales’ decrease -2.0%
14
Turkey’s Import / Export Balance (Net) (Million Ton)
-3,0
2,1
-10,0
1,5
-3,0
2,5
-10,8
1,6
-3,1
2,4
-12,0
1,0
-3,1
2,5
-12,7
1,8
-3,0
3,0
-12,3
1,6
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
LPG Gasoline Diesel Fuel
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Export
Import
15
02 Company Overview
Tüpraş Refining Assets & Distribution Network
17
Batman Ref.
Capacity 1.1 mton/yNelson Comp. 1.83Storage Cap. 253,165 m3
Capacity 5 mton/yNelson Comp. 6.5Storage Cap. 1,378,223 m3
Capacity 11 mton/yNelson Comp. 14.5Storage Cap. 3,023,650 m3
Capacity 11.1 mton/yNelson Comp. 7.66Storage Cap. 3,023,650 m3
Giresun Opet Term.
Mersin Opet Term.
Antalya Opet Term.
Marmara Opet Term. Körfez Opet Term.
DİTAŞ
İzmit Ref.
Kırıkkale Ref.
İzmir Ref.
1 Crude Oil Tanker164,859 DWT1 Crude Oil/Prod.Tanker51,532 DWT5 Prod. Tankers68,089 DWT
Stroge Capacity45,450 m3
Stroge Capacity721,000 m3
Stroge Capacity19,392 m3
Stroge Capacity240,000 m3
Stroge Capacity43,130 m3
Tüpraş Total Production Capacity: 28.1
Million Ton
Nelson Complexity: 9.5
Tüpraş Storage Capacity: 7.2 million mᶟ
OPET Total Storage Capacity: 1.1 million mᶟ
OPET Tüpraş Share 40.0 %
1.457 Stations
1.024 Opet Brand
433 Sunpet Brand
1.1 Million M3 Storage
• Major Terminals in Marmara, Aegean, Black Sea & Mediterranean
International Trading
• London
Jet Fuel Sales
• Turkish Airlines JV
Lubricants
• Fuchs JV
2nd Biggest Distribution Company by Volume
• # 1 Brand Royalty Award
18
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
DİTAŞ - Marine Transportation - (Tüpraş Share 79.98%)
19,314,8
6,4 4,8 6,6 5,2
2,6
3,1
3,13,5
5,24,3
18,0
9,6
9,6 8,411,8
9,5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mill
ion
To
ns
Crude Products
Cumhuriyet
Crude
•2001
•164,9 K DWT
Sevgi
Products
•2008
•10,98 K DWT
Gönül
Products
•2009
•10,87 K DWT
Suna
Products
•2012•51,5 K DWT
Leyla
Products
•2011
•6,3 K DWT
Esra & Aylin
Bitumen
•2x20 K DWT
•Esra 2014
•Aylin 2015
Caroline
Products
•2009
•10,9 K DWT
Nevbahar
Products
•2009
•11,5 K DWThar
19
13 Tugboats10 Mooring boats
2 Service boats1 Pilot boats
Million $ 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152016 (9M)
Net Sales 146,4 159,0 103,7 101,7 113,6 90,0
Op. Profit 17,9 22,8 25,2 27,3 36,8 28,6
Crude Suppliers of TÜPRAŞ (Million Tons)
9,7
2,1
2,0
2,4
3,1
1,1 0
,1
0,0
0,3
7,2
2,0
2,8 2
,3
3,8
1,5
0,3
1,0 0
,6
5,1
1,5
2,9 2
,4
6,1
1,5
0,3
0,7
0,6
5,3
0,6
1,9
2,4
5,7
1,6
0,2
0,1
2,6
5,4
7
3,1
1
2,3
9
2,5
7
11
,54
0,5
9
0,3
0
0,0
0 1,4
3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
IRAN RUSSİA S.ARABİA TURKEY IRAQ K AZ AK STAN ITAL Y L İBYA OTHER
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
In 2015, Tüpraş purchased 21 different types of crude oil from 11
countries, with gravities ranging between 19-47 API
63%
30%7%
Crude Type - 2015
Heavy / Sour
Medium Heavy / Sour
Light & Sweet
20
Margin Environment
Tüpraş Refining Margins ($/bbl)
Premium to the benchmark Mediterranean peers’ refining
margin due to:
► Refined products deficit characteristic to the Turkish
market (for diesel, jet fuel, LPG and specialist products
such as lube oil and extract)
► Access to cheaper sources of crude oil
Ability to use heavier and sour crudes
► Proximity to major suppliers
Reduces transport costs
► Implemented cost reduction measures
Energy efficiency programs
► Capacity to produce higher value added range of
refined products
► Direct pipeline connections with domestic clients
► High export capability
5,305,32 5,54
1,952,89
1,17
4,21
1,671,95
4,83
3,77
-2
2
6
10
J-0
6J-
06
N-0
6A
-07
S-0
7F-
08
J-0
8D
-08
M-0
9O
-09
M-1
0A
-10
J-1
1J-
11
N-1
1A
-12
S-1
2F-
13
J-1
3D
-13
M-1
4O
-14
M-1
5A
-15
J-1
6J-
16
Series1 Series5Month Annual
Med Complex
9,6210,55
11,86
9,89
2,453,21
6,47
4,6
1,67 1,95
4,833,62
0
4
8
12
16
2013 2014 2015 2016
Tüpraş Gross Margin Tupras Net Margin Med Margin
21
Gross Refinery Margins ($/bbl)
22
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
J-9
9A
-99
J-9
9O
-99
J-0
0A
-00
J-0
0O
-00
J-0
1A
-01
J-0
1O
-01
J-0
2A
-02
J-0
2O
-02
J-0
3A
-03
J-0
3O
-03
J-0
4A
-04
J-0
4O
-04
J-0
5A
-05
J-0
5O
-05
J-0
6A
-06
J-0
6O
-06
J-0
7A
-07
J-0
7O
-07
J-0
8A
-08
J-0
8O
-08
J-0
9A
-09
J-0
9O
-09
J-1
0A
-10
J-1
0O
-10
J-1
1A
-11
J-1
1O
-11
J-1
2A
-12
J-1
2O
-12
J-1
3A
-13
J-1
3O
-13
J-1
4A
-14
J-1
4O
-14
J-1
5A
-15
J-1
5O
-15
J-1
6A
-16
J-1
6O
-16
Mediterranean Tüpraş USA WTI Singapore
22
Capacity Utilisation (%)7
6,8
71
,3
98
,1
95
,3 98
,72,4
3,6
4,44,2
4,9
79,174,9
102,599,5
40
60
80
100
120
2013 2014 2015 2015 / 9M 2016 / 9M
Crude Oil Other
103,6
Quarterly Production Volume (Mn Tons)
4,55 4,63 5,41
5,515,60
6,93
7,32 7,42
6,59
6,757,23
0
2
4
6
8
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Min / Max 2007/2014 2014 2015 2016
Production
23
+4,1%
3rd Quarter Product Yields
White Product 77.98%
Production 7.3 mn ton
API:30.25
White Product 77.32%
Production 7.2 mn ton
API:30.48
Gasoline21,2%
Naphtha0,4%
Jet17,5%
Diesel34,1%
Other1,7%
LPG3,5%
Coke2,5%
Fuel Oil4,7%
Bitumen14,3%
Light Distil.21,6%
Mid. Distil.51,6%
Other5,2%
Black Prod.21,6%
2015 2016
24
Gasoline20,4%
Naphtha1,0%
Jet21,4%
Diesel31,6%
Other1,2%
LPG3,5%
Coke3,1%
Fuel Oil4,7%
Bitumen13,0%
Light Distil.21,4%
Mid. Distil.53,0%
Other4,7%
Black Prod.20,9%
Sales By Customer (9M 2016)
Distributors45%
THY Opet10%
Jet 5%
LPG 4%Petkim
1%
Other4%
Export19%
Bitumen11%
Military1%
Customer Groups Sales to Distributors
Total: 22.6 million tons Distributors: 10.2 million tons
OMV POAŞ28%
OPET21%
Shell18%
BP2%
TP3%
TOTAL4%
Other24%
24
Tüpraş Sales
26
3.580 3.9175.068 4.102
5.3746.403
4.9116.756 6.927
4.2676.199
0
1.1281.726
1.807
925
1.9251.252
1.459
1.179 1.173
1.822
1.6634.708
5.6436.875
5.027
7.298 7.6556.370
7.935 8.100
6.089
7.862
0
4.000
8.000
12.000
14 15 16 14 15 16 14 15 16 14 15 16
Domestic Export (Thousand tons)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
0,76 0,86 1,00 0,981,26 1,23 1,18 1,50 1,27
0,91 1,130,23 0,27 0,43 0,42
0,63 0,91 0,791,08 1,16
0,51
0,900,39
0,43 0,45 0,46
0,520,55
0,54
0,60 0,64
0,44
0,501,481,73
2,271,66
2,23
2,75
1,83
2,62 2,94
1,73
2,59
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
14 15 16 14 15 16 14 15 16 14 15 16
Diesel
Gasoline
Asphalt
Jet Fuel12%
7%
7%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
(Million tons)
Investments (mn $)
RUP with Supplementary Projects
Others
397
761
1.006
701
190150
231
213
207
258
153
268
177
628
974
1.213
959
344268
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
27
Project Aims
•Improving Energy Efficiency at Kırıkkale with a combined heat & power plant
•The other refineries are already equipped
•Expected completion: 2016
What the Project Entails
•A new gas turbine
•New steam turbines
•New boilers
•One existing steam turbine will be utilized
•Total power: 60 MW
Investment
•84 Million USD
•IRR: >30%
Kır
ıkka
le P
ow
erP
lan
t
Other Major Projects
Project Aims
•To reduce the need for fresh water
What the Project Entails
•A water treatment plant to process municipal & refinery waste water
•Two temporary systems were built to serve until the main system was completed
•Project completed in 2015
Investment
•22 Million USD
28
İzm
it W
aste
Wat
er
Tre
atm
en
t
Project Aims
•Eliminating low energy efficiency in the furnaces
•Enables sustainable full capacity utilization
What the Project Entails
•Configuration Changes
•De-salter & Pre-flash column
•Heat recycling – Heat Exchanger
•Replace column internals
•New pre-flash drum
Expectations
•Investment: 31.9 Million USD
•IRR > 40%
İzm
ir C
rud
e O
il R
eva
mp
ing
03 Key Financials
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Profitability Indicators (2015-2016 9 Month & 3Q-2015-2016)
* In our EBITDA calculation, FX related items are not included, whereas CMB calculation method includes these in operationg profit 30
3rd Q(%)
9M(%)
2015 2016 2015 2016
50,26 45,85 -9 Dtd.Brent Price, ($/bbl) 55,39 41,77 -24,59
30,25 30,48 0,8 Processed Crude API 31,75 30,81 -2,96
77,98 77,32 -0,7 White Product Yield, (%) 74,66 76,20 1,54
4,92 3,81 -22,5 Med. Complex Margin,($/bbl) 5,26 3,62 -31,2
8,32 5,68 -31,7 Tüpraş Net Margin,($/bbl) 6,89 4,60 -33,2
209,96 204,6 -3 Operating Profit, (mn. $) 590,2 467,3 -21
363,6 248,1 -31,8 Operating Profit for EBITDA, (mn. $) 856,2 506,2 -41
256,8 250,7 -2 EBITDA (mn.$)-CMB 709,6 605,8 -15
358,4 235,5 -34,3 EBITDA (mn.$)-CMB- CCS 814,3 496,0 -39
410,5 294,1 -28,4 EBITDA *(mn. $) 975,6 644,7 -34
512,1 278,9 -45,5 EBITDA* (mn. $) CCS 1.080,3 534,9 -50
31
95 79 150 72139
15378
-27
381 217
361
315226
257251
106
89
-11
481
715
560
338
1.191
606
-100
100
300
500
700
900
1100
2012R 2013 2014 2015 2016
EBITDA*
20026 105
-12 33
94
-68 -36
278 137
379
224 60
178188
81
-175-45
375
753
7
84
819
357
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Profit Before Tax
55
1
1.3
40
1.9
94
1.8
69
1.5
98
1.6
63
2.4
52
2.5
77
2.7
48
2.3
70
2.2
58
2.3
91
1.7
51
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
Net Debt
0,3
2
0,2
4
0,2
6
0,3
5
0,0
4
0,1
1
0,1
6
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0,30
0,35
0,40
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1 2016 1H 2016 9M
Return on Average Equity
* According to CMB
Financial Highlights (mn $)
Balance Sheet Analysis
32
2,161,721,69
1,301,641,68
1,211,04
0,821,04
1,641,59
2,45
0
1
2
3
4Cash & Equivalents (Billion $)
1,33
0,930,71
0,520,51
0,090,20
0,66
1,070,88
0,700,91
0,75
0,0
0,4
0,8
1,2
1,6
2,0
Receivables (Billion $)
2,4 2,6 2,8 2,9 2,9 3,0 3,3 3,1 3,0 2,8 2,9 2,8 3,1
1,0 0,50,9 0,3 0,3 0,3
0,4 0,5 0,6 0,61,0 1,2
1,13,4
3,1
3,73,2 3,2 3,3
3,7 3,6 3,6 3,43,9 4,0 4,2
0
1
2
3
4
5
Financial Loans (Billion $)
LT Loans ST Loans
3,463,223,10
3,283,04
2,46
1,741,701,591,361,23
1,691,98
0
1
2
3
4
5
Payables (Billion $)
Profit Bridge On Tüpraş 3Q
33
Mil.TL
498,0553,8
370,3
327,9
9,2
39,568,0
525,7
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
Profit BeforeTax in 2015
Crude OilDifferentials
InventoryEffect
CapacityUtilisations
YieldDifference
Others Crack MarginDifferences
Profit BeforeTax in 2016
Profit Bridge On Tüpraş 9M
34
Mil.TL
1.178,4 1.048,3
474,6
614,3
580,0
180,9
1.589,3
390,6
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
Profit BeforeTax in 2015
Yield Difference Crude OilDifferentials
Inventory Effect CapacityUtilization
Crack MarginDifferences
Others Profit BeforeTax in 2016
FX Risk Exposure (30 September 2016)
35*Cash flow hedge accounting : 1,495 mn $
ConsolidatedAssets
ConsolidatedLiabilities
LT Financials: 2,812
RUP Loans: 1,407
Eurobond: 700
Other credits 705
ST Financials 413
• RUP 308
Payables
1.145
Forward & CFH*
2,619
Stock
927
Receivables & otherassets
60
Cash
926
Million $
+161 million $
2016 Expectations vs 9 Month Results
36
32,5
38,541,5
46,8 48,345,1 45,7 46,7
49,8
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
16'2 16'3 16'4 16'5 16'6 16'7 16'8 16'9 16'10
Crude Oil Price
68
69
80,784,1
104 110,3111,699,7 102
109
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
14'Q1 14'Q2 14'Q3 14'Q4 15'Q1 15'Q2 15'Q3 15'Q4 16'Q1 16'Q2 16'Q3
CDU
74,9
The average Brent price in 2016 is expected to
be 45-55 dollars per barrel band
Expected Capacity Utilisation in 2016 will be around
100 %
2,81
5,21
5,68
3,84
3,20
3,81
2,50 3,00 3,50 4,00 4,50 5,00 5,50 6,00
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
Med Margin Tüpraş Net Refinery Margin Min.
Targ
et
Targ
et
103,6102,5
2016 Net Tüpraş refinery margin is expected to be
in the region of 4.5 – 5.0 dollars per barrelTarg
et
1.006701
190
207
258
153268
1.213
959
344268
0
400
800
1.200
1.600
2013 2014 2015 2016
New Investments (M$)RUP
Total refining investments for 2016 will be approx.
270 Million dollars
Targ
et
Income Statement
Q3 Q3% Diff. Million USD 9 M 2015 9 M 2016 % Diff.
2015 2016
3.685,6 3.199,1 -13 Net Sales 10.539,4 8.215,0 -22
433,7 311,0 -28 Gross Profit 1.068,0 698,9 -35
-81,8 -83,4 -2 Operating Expenses -223,8 -239,2 -7
-141,9 -23,0 -84 Income/Loss from other oper. -254,0 7,6 -103
210,0 204,6 -3 Operating Profit 590,2 467,3 -21
12,1 20,9 73 Income/Loss from equity invest. 15,8 44,3 180
222,0 225,5 2 Operating Profit Before Fin. P/L 606,0 511,6 -16
184,4 67,0 -64 Financial Income 377,3 112,1 -70
-228,5 -104,5 -54 Finance Expenses -539,7 -266,3 -51
177,9 188,0 6 Profit Before Tax & Minorities 443,6 357,4 -19
268,5 197,4 -26 Net Profit 653,3 337,6 -48
37
256,8 250,7 -2 EBITDA (mn.$) 709,6 605,8 -15
358,4 235,5 -34 EBITDA (mn.$) CCS 814,3 496,0 -39
Tüpraş Balance Sheet
Million USD 30.09.2016 31.12.2015 Difference % Difference
Current Assets 4.462 2.984 1.478 50
Cash & C. Equivalents 2.446 1.041 1.404 135
Receivables 749 882 -133 -15
Derivatives 6 6 -1 -13
Inventories 974 723 251 35
Pre-paid expenses 45 45 0 0
Other Current Assets 242 285 -43 -15
Long Term Assets 5.725 5.776 -52 -1
Financial Assets & Subsidiaries 285 264 22 8
Fixed Assets 3.865 3.950 -85 -2
Derivatives 73 86
Pre-paid expenses 85 62 23 38
Deferred Tax 1.070 1.101 -31 -3
Other Long Term Assets 346 314 32 10
Total Assets 10.187 8.760 1.427 16Short Term Liabilities 4.419 3.036 1.383 46
Financial Loans 1119 644 475 74
Payables 1979 1363 617 45
Derivatives 61 14 47 338
Deferred Incomes 1 8 -7 -91
Provisions 44 24 20 82
Other ST Liabilities 1216 984 232 24
Long Term Liabilities 3162 2845 317 11
Financial Loans 3078 2768 310 11
Payables & Provisions 66 67 -1 -1
Derivatives 17 9 8 80
Other LT Liabilities 1 1 0 -11
Equity 2580 2856 -276 -10
Minority Interests 25 22 4 16
Total Liabilities 10.187 8.760 1.427 1638
Dividends (TRY)
1,73
3,242,94
4,96
5,83
4,78
0
10,18
2,31 2,502,98
3,93 3,85
1,58
6,50
579626
746
985 964
396
1.628
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
1.800
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tota
l Pay
ou
t (M
illio
n T
L)
Earnings per Share Gross Dividend Total Payout
2012/2013 EPS includes the tax incentive 39
04 Supplements
Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in Q3 (FOB Italy Prices)
Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was – 523,0 million TL
Q3
Product Price,
$/tonTüpraş
Crack Margin,
$/bbl
2016 2015Product
Yield %2016 2015
LPG 291,5 305,7 3,6% -19,9 -23,0
Gasoline 461 561,5 20,1% 11,0 18,9
Naptha 366,1 401,4 1,1% -4,5 -4,9
Jet Fuel 423,3 477,7 17,5% 8,0 10,5
Diesel 408,1 480,9 32,5% 9,0 14,3
Diesel 1000 397,8 461,9 0,7% 7,6 11,8
Fuel Oil 1% 246,9 248,3 0,2% -7,8 -12,0
Fuel Oil 3,5% 228,5 241 18,8% -10,6 -13,1
Total Crack Margin,$/bbl 3,8 7,0
Dated Brent Avg. $/Bbl 45,8 50,3 94,5%
Margin Differences, $/bbl -3,2
Total Raw Materials Charge, mn Barrel 54,8
Total Effect of Product Price, mn $ -176,7
Total Effect of Product Prices, mn TL -525,7
41
Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in 9M (FOB Italy Prices)
Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.589,3 million TL
9M
Product Price,
$/tonTüpraş
Crack Margin,
$/bbl
2016 2015Product
Yield %2016 2015
LPG 290,3 359,6 3,6% -15,9 -23,4
Gasoline 448,1 588,7 20,1% 13,4 17,2
Naptha 348,4 447,7 1,1% -2,4 -4,9
Jet Fuel 388,9 530,0 17,5% 7,7 12,0
Diesel 375,7 524,4 32,5% 8,7 15,1
Diesel 1000 365,7 507,6 0,7% 7,4 12,8
Fuel Oil 1% 201,9 291,4 0,2% -10,6 -10,4
Fuel Oil 3,5% 187,0 279,6 18,8% -12,9 -12,3
Total Crack Margin,$/bbl 3,8 7,3
Dated Brent Avg. $/Bbl 41,8 55,4 94,5%
Margin Differences, $/bbl -3,44
Total Raw Materials Charge, mn Barrel 157,68
Total Effect of Product Price, mn $ -541,8
Total Effect of Product Prices, mn TL -1.589,3
42
Inventory Effect* Analysis
43*FX effect Included, hedging excluded
2015 2016
$ million Crude Product Total Crude Product Total
1st Quarter -35,1 -35,1 -70,2 -9,0 -13,4 -22,4
2nd Quarter 28,1 38,9 67,1 46,9 70,1 117,0
Jul -17,0 -22,5 -39,4 -9,7 0,1 -9,6
Aug -31,9 -29,8 -61,7 11,8 12,8 24,6
Sep 3,0 -3,4 -0,4 0,3 -0,1 0,2
3rd Quarter -45,9 -55,7 -101,6 2,3 12,8 15,2
9 Months -52,8 -51,8 -104,7 40,3 69,5 109,8
High Demand in 2015 - Turkish Consumption (Million tons)
17,43
20,18
0 5 10 15 20 25
2014
2015
Diesel
4,10
4,64
0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0
2014
2015
Jet Fuel*
1,92
2,09
0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5
2014
2015
Gasoline
0,54
0,44
0,00 0,10 0,20 0,30 0,40 0,50 0,60
2014
2015
Fuel Oil
* Tüpraş sales + Distributor’s Imports
-18,5%
+15.8 % +13.1 %
+9.1 %
44
8 Months 2016 - Turkish Consumption (Million tons)
13,30
14,44
10 11 12 13 14 15
2015
2016
Diesel
0,89
0,93
0,0 0,4 0,8 1,2
2015
2016
Domestic Jet Fuel
1,39
1,49
0,8 1,0 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8
2015
2016
Gasoline
0,36
0,37
0,10 0,20 0,30 0,40 0,50
2015
2016
Fuel Oil*
Source: EMRA
*bunker excluded.
+8.6 %
+1.5 %+6.9 %
+4,7 %
Note: Bunker Sales’ decrease -2.0%
45
High Complexity #1 (Nelson Complexity of Refinining Companies)
14,5
13,012,6
11,8 11,6 11,511,0
10,49,9 9,8 9,6 9,5 9,4 9,2 9,2 9,0 8,8 8,7
8,48,0
7,3 7,1 7,1 7,1 7,16,8
6,5
5,9 5,8 5,8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Tüpraş Before RUP
Tüpraş After RUP
İzmitAfter RUP
46
High Complexity # 2 (Resid Upgrading Units Production-(Thousand Tons))
Raw Materials
Natural Gas 246
Vacuum Resid1,214
Atm. StraightRun Fuel Oil
3,036
Total Feed 4,496 Total Production 4,250
(kton)
Products(kton)
47
High Complexity # 3 (Tüpraş Total Production Change After RUP)
4,7
3,6
5,6
1,4
2,9
1,7
0,9
5,5
0,3
0,35
0,7
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Gasoline&Naptha
Jet Fuel
Diesel
Others
Fuel Oil
Coke
Bitumen
Before RUP After
%35
%25
%19
%-87
Million ton48
2,7
RUP production + 4 Refineries Capacities increase 9,1 mn tons,
instead of 4,2 mn ton
48
High Complexity # 4 (Tüpraş Tax Incentive From RUP)
• Valued at 30% of project cost
• Realised after completion
• Tax rate of 10% on project earnings until total incentive is reached
Large ScaleInvestment Incentive
21.10.2010
• Valued at 50% of project cost
• Partly realised during construction
• Tax rate of 2% on project earnings until total incentive is reached
Strategic Investment Incentives 19.10.2012
• is 3,66 billion TL.
• 344 mn TL of Investment incentive income deducted from Strategic Investment Incentive total
Total incentive
49
High Quality (Maximum on-road diesel sulphur limits, January 2014)
2014 2015 2020 2025
US& Canada 15 15 15 10
Latin America 630 450 195 40
Europe 20 18 12 10
Middle east 900 470 125 45
Russia & Caspian 90 70 55 40
Africa 2.800 2.000 850 390
Asia& Pasific 245 185 105 45
Source:Stratas Advisors
Tüpraş and Turkey have the most stringentproduction limits on sulphur content
High Flexibility (Tüpraş Refineries Simple Flow Diagram)
Gasoline + Naphtha
%21.9
Jet Fuel +Kerosene
%19.0
Gas Oil%30.5
Vacuum Dist.(8) Bitumen /
Fuel Oil%21.9
Crude Distillation(8)
Lube Oil%0.5
LPG
%3.4Isomerisation
(3)
Hydrocracker (4)
FCC(2)
Kero / DieselHDS (10)
LPG Merox (6)
NaphthaSplitter
(8)
FCC GasolineHDS(2)
Benzene Saturation
(2)
UnifinerReformer
(7)
Lube Oil (1)
Others %1.3
2015Yield
97,000 m3/bbl
43,000 m3/bbl
6,400 m3/bbl
16,900 m3/bbl
37,300 m3/bbl
4,700 m3/bbl
17,400 m3/bbl
400 thousand ton/year
Coker
Bitumen (4)
8,200 m3/day
51
Locational Advantage & Heavier Crudes (Crude Suppliers of TÜPRAŞ (Million Tons))
9,7
2,1
2,0
2,4
3,1
1,1 0
,1
0,0
0,3
7,2
2,0
2,8 2
,3
3,8
1,5
0,3
1,0 0
,6
5,1
1,5
2,9 2
,4
6,1
1,5
0,3
0,7
0,6
5,3
0,6
1,9
2,4
5,7
1,6
0,2
0,1
2,6
5,4
7
3,1
1
2,3
9
2,5
7
11
,54
0,5
9
0,3
0
0,0
0 1,4
3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
IRA N RUSS İA S .A RA BİA TURKEY IRA Q KA Z A KSTA N ITA LY L İBYA OTHER
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
In 2015, Tüpraş purchased 21 different types of crude oil from 11
countries, with gravities ranging between 19-47 API
63%
30%7%
Crude Type - 2015
Heavy / SourMedium Heavy / SourLight & Sweet
52
53www.Tüpraş.com.tr
Baku
Ceyhan
Black Sea
Marmara
Mersin
Ankara
İstanbul
Batman
Kirkuk
İzmir
İzmit
Kırıkkale
Covering Whole Country
Operations
İzmit
11.0 MT Capacity
NC: 14,5
Storage Capacity: 2.2 Mn M3
Sales Channels:
o Pipeline, Ship, Railway & Truck
İzmir
11.0 MT Capacity
NC: 7.66
Storage Capacity: 1.9 Mn M3
Only lubricant, base Oil, producer
Sales Channels:
o Pipeline, Ship, & Truck
Kırıkkale
5.0 MT Capacity
NC: 6.32
Storage Capacity: 1.2 Mn M3
Sales Channels:
o Pipeline, Railway & Truck
Batman
1.1 MT Capacity
NC: 1.83
Storage Capacity: 0.2 Mn M3
Asphalt - 70% of product yield
o Semi-finished products sent for
further processing
Sales Channels:
o Pipeline, Railway & Truck
Tüpraş operates the only 4 refineries in Turkey
• 3 Large Refineries produce Euro V Diesel & Gasoline, plus jet fuel, fuel oils, asphalt, LPG,
naphtha and others
53
160184
108 107150
112 115 122
23243 31
50 34 19
182
183215 231 223
241 283 299
263342367 366 370 373
403
432 440
495
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Spa. Gre Ger Fra. EU19 TR Ita UK Nor.
Tax Dist.margin Pump No tax
Gasoline (Krş / Lt) Diesel 10 (Krş / Lt)
165
114 116 112153
114154
118
22230 19 40 46 36
220287 298
288 290309 317 329
324
385
432 433 440 443469 470
483
545
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Spa Fra. UK Ger. EU19 TR Gre Ita Nor.
Tax Dist. Margin Pump No Tax
54
COMPETITION # 1 (European Pump Price Comparison)
Note: Prices valid on 19 Sept 016 Türkiye prices updated as of 17 September 2016 the latest.
Competition # 2 (Regional Competition)
Mediterranean Black Sea
17 Refineries
1.6 mn bpd
53 Refineries
7.6 mn bpd
55
Competition # 3 (SOCAR-STAR Refinery)
• Goldman Sachs has acquired a 13 percent stake in SOCAR Turkey for $1.3 billion.
• Goldman Sachs has the right to resell 10 percent of its stakes to Socar, and the remaining 3 percent to ‘Sermaye Investments Limited’ owned by SOCAR within 6 year at the same price.
Credit : 3.3 Billion $
Equity : 2.4 Billion $
Total Investment: 5.7 Billion $
STAR Refinery Production (k ton)
• 3,3 billion dollar credit aggrement. First 4 year grace period total 15-18 year term.
• Project finance is supplied to company (US$ 1.5 billion)
• It is planned to be commissioned in 2018.
Fuels
• Diesel 5.000
• Jet Fuel 1.700
• Sulphur 158
• Petrocoke 698
Petrochemical feedstock
• LPG 260
• Naptha 1.300
• Mixed xylene 460
• Reformate 524
10,100 56
Million ton
2018 2018*
TurkeyDemand
TüpraşProduction
Turkey-Tüpraş
StarSOCAR
Deficit/(Excess)
Crude Oil 28,1 10,0Semi product+Other charge 0,8Total processed 28,9 10,0Products
LPG 4,1 1,1 -3,0 0,3 -2,7Petrochem. charge: Naptha, Reformate/xylene 2,8 0,6 -2,2 2,3 0,1Gasoline 2,2 5,7 3,5 3,5Jet fuel/Kerosene 5,4 5,6 0,2 1,7 1,9Diesel 21,9 10,2 -11,7 5,0 -6,7Fuel Oil 1,1 0,9 -0,2 -0,2Asphalt 3,3 2,7 -0,6 -0,6Sulphur & other 1,8 0,5 -1,3 0,2 -1,1Coke 3,0 0,8 -2,2 0,7 -1,5
Total 45,5 28,4 -17,1 10,1 -7,0
Competition # 4 (Turkey consumption balance & the effect of new refinery)
*Expected to be completed by the end of 2018
57
7,1
7,1
6,9
6,1
4,8
5,0
3,4
3,5
1,9
1,7
1,9
1,7
2,4
2,8
3,4
1,1
3,6
3,2
1,8
2,6
1,4
0,8
1,3
2,0
0,5
3,6
2,5
1,72,2
1,51,1
1,6
2,5
0,7
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2019
Tüpraş Contractor Total
Tüpraş HSE KPI: Loss Time Incident Frequency and Severity Frequency Ratios
Loss Time Severity Frequency Rate (2015 Target 30) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020
Tüpraş 92 44 40 53 65 61 59 719 20
Contractor 116 101 81 118 424 17 378 51 20
Total 105 73 57 83 289 26 308 315 20
Incident Frequency
loss time incident freaquency rate =number of incident *1000000/man hours
loss severity frequency rate = loss time*1000000/man hours
İncluding contractors
58
4273
135
240
345376
398 407
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Energy Index 119,1 99,2
Energy Saving Projects , mn$
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total
Tüpraş Energy consumption (TJ) 76.653 65.265 67.010 70.792 71.086 69.147 67.034 90.796 577.783
Energy-saving(TJ) 978 10.891 3.155 3.053 5.255 2.841 1.772 1.031 28.976
Energy Efficiency Project 36 52 65 92 97 40 22 21 425
Savings (mn $) 42 32 62 105 106 31 22 10 407
59
The Investor Relations section of our company website has a rich content of updated
information for the interested investors
www.tupras.com.tr
Investor Relations and Reporting DepartmentTel. : 262 316 3269Fax : 262 316 30 10-11Güney Mah. Petrol Cad. No .25 PK.41790 Körfez-Kocaeliwww.tupras.com.trE-mail: [email protected] 60
DISCLAIMER
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management’s current
views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in
these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in
underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially.
Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person shall have any
liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation.
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