RECLAIM Phase III- Promoting Best Practices for Early Warning
of Landslides in a Changing Climate Scenario
Outline
• Climate change and landslide occurrence-Is there any connection?
• What might be the consequences if there is a connection.
• Concept of Landslide early warning• Introduction to Program for Regional Capacity
Enhancement for Landslide Impact Mitigation (RECLAIM) – III - Promoting Best Practices for Early Warning of Landslides in a Changing Climate Scenario
Destruction to human settlements
Mulhalkelle Landslide
- Sri Lanka
Impacts
Impacts
Eastern Slope
Basalt Hills
Aggregate Quarry
EphemeralGully
EphemeralGully
Western SlopeQuarry
Excavation
Cherry Hills-PhilippinesPhoto from Eng Gill Cardiel
Removal of vegetation cover or disturbanceDebris slide at Dalican, Bontoc, Mt. Province
Weight of rain, rock debris, dead trees, garbage dumps, buildings, houses, stockpiles
Improperly built houses, aggravating instability of steep slopes, causing slope failure
La Trindad, Benguet
Concept of Landslide early warning
Providing climate Scenarios
Interpreting Regional climate outlook into local outlook
Translating local climate outlook into impact scenarios
Communication on local community responses/
feedback
Conceptual Framework
End-to-end Climate Information and Application System for Landslide Risk management
Gaps
Dissemination to at-risk communities
Observation/ monitoring
Warning formulation
Community response
Data analysis
Prediction Risk assessment
Emergency response plansPublic education/ awarenessMitigation programs
Potential impact assessment
Preparation of response options
Insufficient analysis capacity and warning communication facilities
Data analysis capability Skilled human resource Capacity to make use of threshold values
Local level potential impact assessment not done
Simplification Generation of Localized and relevantmessages
Institutional mechanism, linkages with at risk communities SOPs Dissemination Reaching vulnerable and at risk groups
Data sharing among agencies
Public awareness Forecasting limitations Lack of trainers/ facilitators Actions to respond to warning
Regulatory framework for warning Stakeholders involvement and roles
Program for Regional Capacity Enhancement for Landslide Impact
Mitigation RECLAIM
Funded by the Government of Norway
Implemented byby
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC)Bangkok
Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI), Oslo
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC)-BangkokNorwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) - Norway
Goal
• The main goal of the project is to share, enhance and develop good practices for early warning of landslides for sustainable development in areas affected by landslides. This will be achieved through:
• Gathering of data from existing approaches and through formation of joint working groups to identify critical factors and disseminate knowledge from participating countries.
Objectives of the project• Develop/introduce good practices for early warning of
landslides.• Form joint working groups with representatives of
landslide professionals to analyse the critical factors responsible for destabilisation of slopes.
• Introduce and develop existing as well as new concepts pertaining to precipitation threshold values for landslide initiation in different geological materials.
• Provide input to national and regional multi-hazard platforms for early warning and propose suitable preparedness measures to suit respective areas
Study on the current experience and status of EW for landslide risk
reduction
• The study will be based on the current practices– In what scale do partners operate (national,
Regional, Provincial, local)– What mechanisms they use to collect data– How do they get rainfall data for studies– How EWS operates at various levels– What are the challenges, gaps , difficulties
Factors considered in establishing the Mechanisms of landslide
occurrence in partner countries• What type of geotechnical materials exist in the most vulnerable
slopes (hotspot areas) in each of the participating countries?• How do the partners obtain such data (what methodology is
used)• What are the typical rainfall intensities in these vulnerable
regions, e.g 10 mm/hour, or 100mm/day etc, meteorological data• What has been the observed geotechnical response in the slope to
rainfall?• Is it creep, fast moving or sudden failure?• Any type of laboratory or field measurements used in defining the
geotechnical properties of the materials associated with such failure
Monitoring of landslides- Approach for predicting the behavior of slopes • What is the extent of availability of rain gauge data for
studies• What is the source agency and how it is being obtained for
landslide studies• Rainfall (rain gauge data) –) What is the most optimum
way for plotting the rainfall data(7 day, 5 day, 3 day)• Visual observations (movement of landslide)- what are the
methods use• Innovative methods of monitoring the slope movement at
local level• What experience partners have in observing the
movement of slopes
Approaches for predicting the behavior of landslides
• How Monitoring of landslide movement is being carried out in various countries
• What methods can be used;– Rainfall threshold limits– Groundwater data obtained from pressure sensors (pore
water pressure)– Monitoring of movement using data from displacement
sensors (extensometer, inclinometers)– Ground vibration measurements obtained from geophones– Total station (GPS technology)– Any other cost effective measures that can be undertaken at
community level
Important factors for landslide Early warning
• Experience (success stories)on implementation and operation of a landslide early warning system
• How data gathering can be done in target countries for developing a rainfall-landslide trigger relationship
• Institutional set-up for early warning • Monitoring and predicting• Communicating alerts to at risk communities• Response plans at various levels
Case studies on good practices
• What are the source agencies for landslide early warning in partner countries
• How is the Institutional set-up for early warning dissemination in partner countries; whether it is a local or central set-up, or a combination
• Info about the community participation including local stakeholders such as village community, schools and local police
• Role of participating agencies in relation to landslide Early warning
• What are the challenges in dissemination of EW messages • How to improve the existing mechanisms for EW
Location 6 days before 5 days before 4 days before 3 days before 2 days before 1 day beforeThe day of disaster 1day after
1. Location 1 50 68 139 180 280 314 337 -
2 4 12 5 0 4 119 230 -
3 18.1 35 99.9 135 169.5 213.6 222.6 222.6
4 0 5.6 52.7 64 73.4 267.6 294 312.9
5 80 171.2 290 358.8 385 473.8 621.3 740
6 40.8 53.6 70.6 77.6 138.8 316.4 358 374.1
7 11.4 20.3 55.2 46 102 112 87 -
18.8 25.3 49.2 65 65 68.1 460.6 492.1
22.9 110.3 230.3 230.3 278.8 307.4 336 353.7
Rainfall data collection from 6 days before a previous landslide
Formation of Joint working groups of landslide professionals of target
countries• The objectives of the project will be achieved
through collaboration between the technical partners / representatives of participating countries, working under different organisational cultures.
• Participants in the joint working groups are expected to gain knowledge and confidence on the good practices for early warning of landslides when they are applicable and achievable in different geological conditions.
Partners and organisation
• ADPC will be responsible for implementing the project with support from NGI.
• Project implementing institutions will select experts to participate in the project. It is planned to invite minimum 2 experts from each participating country, preferably one expert from the national disaster risk management agency and one technical expert with experience from landslide hazard assessment and mitigation.
• It is planned to have a total of three regional meetings through the project period tentatively for two to three days duration where all countries shall be represented.
• Experts from other professions which can provide input relevant to the project will also be invited.
RECLAIM Phase I & II
Target countries: Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Indonesia, Nepal, Philippines, Sri Lanka , Thailand,Vietnam
• Project durationSeptember 2009 –
2011
THANK YOU.
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