1. Product Development Section Product ISSUE 77 | JUNE 2010 !1
A Brief Look at the Phase 1 Survey Results From the SOA/RGA
Post-Level Term Research Project A Brief Look at the Phase 1 Survey
By Tim Rozar and Scott Rushing Results From the SOA/RGA Post-Level3
Chairpersons Corner: Term Research Project Whats on Your Mind? By
John Currier By Tim Rozar and Scott Rushing8 Interactions Between
Dynamic Lapses and Interest Rates in The SOAs Product Development
Section Council and Committee on Life Insurance Stochastic Modeling
Research engaged RGA to research the magnitude and impact of the
shock lapse at the By Yuhong Xue end of the level premium period.
This has become an extremely important assumption both for new
business pricing and for modeling in-force business. As a result,
we have tried to13 A Look Ahead to the Fall Society of develop a
comprehensive and highly relevant industry study of post-level term
assumptions, Actuaries Meeting practices and experience results. By
Tom Phillips and Mitchell Katcher The project was broken into two
phases:15 Universal Life and Indexed UL Trends Phase 1 was a survey
of the mortality and lapse assumptions used by actuaries for
pricing By Susan J. Saip and modeling term products. Phase 2 was a
study of mortality and lapse experience from companies with term
poli-19 NAIC Update March 2010 Meeting cies beyond the end of the
level period. By Donna R. Claire This article will summarize the
results from the Phase 1 Survey. A copy of the complete sur-23 SOA
International Experience vey report can be found at
http://soa.org/research/life/research-post-level.aspx. Responses
SurveyEmbedded Value Financial Assumptions were received from 41
companies responsible for approximately 63 percent of 2008 term
Charles Carroll, William Horbatt, and sales. The survey questions
asked companies to describe pricing assumptions and product
Dominique Lebel design characteristics for their term products
issued as of the end of 2008. CONTINUED ON PAGE 4
2. Product ISSUE 77 | JUNE 2010 ! Published by the Product 2010
Section Leadership SOA Staff Development Section of the Society
John Currier, Chairperson Sam Phillips, Staff Editor of Actuaries
Mitchell Katcher, Vice Chairperson e: [email protected] Sue Saip,
Secretary/Treasurer This newsletter is free to section members.
Christopher Daniels, Council Member Mike Boot, Staff Partner
Current-year issues are available from the Christina Goodrich,
Council Member e: [email protected] communications department. Back
issues Donna Megregian, Council Member of section newsletters have
been placed in Paul Pflieger, Council Member Christy Cook, Project
Support Specialist the SOA library and on the SOA Web site Tom
Phillips, Council Member e: [email protected] (www.soa.org).
Photocopies of back issues Lisa Renetzky, Council Member may be
requested for a nominal fee. Allen Klein, Board Partner Julissa
Sweeney, Graphic Designer e: [email protected] Copyright 2010
Society of Actuaries. All rights reserved. Printed in the United
Editors States of America Christie Goodrich, Co-Editor p: (515)
283-3488 e: [email protected] Paul Fedchak, Co-Editor
p: (317) 524-3537 e: [email protected] Facts and opinions
contained herein are the sole responsibility of the persons
expressing them and shall not be attributed to the Society of
Actuaries, its committees, the Product Development Section or the
employers of the authors. We will promptly correct errors brought
to our attention. Articles Needed for the Next Issue of Product
Matters! While all articles are welcome, we would especially like
to receive articles on topics that would be of interest to Product
Development Section members based outside of the United States.
Please e-mail your articles to Christie Goodrich or Paul Fedchak by
July 27, 2010.2| JUNE 2010 | Product Matters!
3. Chairpersons Corner:Whats on Your Mind?By John CurrierA s
you read this article some of you are trying to catch up in the
office after recently returning from the first an- nual Life and
Annuity Symposium in Tampa, some are wondering what to do with your
children all summer now that school is out (or nearly so for those
hit with multiple snow days this past winter), some are gearing
upfor second-quarter end financial reporting, some are thinking
about ways to sneak in a few hours of outdoors activitynow that the
weather has turned, and we are all thinking about how to make the
Product Development Section morerelevant to us.Hold on, I can hear
you saying, I get that we are transitioning to summer and that
means lots of new thoughts, but Johnyouve lost it if you think Im
spending any time thinking about the Product Development Section.
John Currier, FSA, MAAA, is EVP, Chief Actuary forIt may seem a
stretch, but the fact you are reading these words tells me that you
look to the Society of Actuaries and the Aviva USA. He can
beProduct Development Section for valuable informationthat you are
looking for that nugget that is relevant to what contacted atyou
are doing in your working life. [email protected]
Product Development Section is working to provide those nuggets to
youbased on what youve told us is im-portant to do. Many of you
responded to our survey of what is most important to you and your
council is acting on thatfeedback. The session topics at the Life
and Annuity Symposium were tested against the topics you said you
were interested in. The post-symposium seminars were built on
topics you mentioned. This newsletter contains an article from an
author who identified their willingness to provide content in that
survey. We are pursuing articles for future editions from others
identified in the survey. Webinar content is being developed based
on your topics. 2010 Annual meeting content is being developed to
match the survey requests. Some who expressed interest in the
council are now assisting in other ways or will be seeking election
in the coming months.You can see that your council is working hard
to provide mining opportunitiesopportunities for relevance. If
youtake the time, I know that nugget is there for youbut if we are
not meeting your needs, this is your Section after all,do let us
know and find a way to get involved in the life of the Sectionwe
need each and every one of you to make usthe best we can be.Enjoy
this edition of Product Matters, have a wonderful summer, and I
look forward to seeing you at the AnnualMeeting. Since youve read
this far I know the Product Development Section is on your mind!
Product Matters! | JUNE 2010 | 3
4. A Brief Look at the Phase 1 Survey | FROM PAGE 1 Product
Design For 10-year level term, 33 of 41 respondents (80 percent) A
number of survey questions were asked about the struc- provided a
shock lapse assumption of less than 100 per- ture and design of
term products. The specific questions cent. Of these companies, 31
also provided a shock lapse and responses can be found in the full
survey report. The assumption of less than 100 percent for their
20-year term following high level observations can be made:
product. Here are a few of the highlights: An immediate jump to an
annually increasing The median shock lapse assumption was 80
percent in premium scale following the level period is by far
duration 10 for a common T10 pricing cell and 82 per- Tim Rozar,
FSA, the most common term design. A small number of cent in
duration 20 for a common T20 pricing cell. MAAA, CERA, is VP
respondents described products where the premiums The median
cumulative lapse rate assumption for dura- & actuary for RGA ,
entered a new level period or graded into an ultimate tions 10
through 14 was 90 percent for T10. For T20, the Chesterfield, Mo.
He ART scale. median cumulative lapse rate for durations 20 through
can be contacted at Premiums after the level period were typically
set 24 was 92 percent. [email protected]. between 200 percent and
300 percent of 2001 CSO For T10, duration 11 lapse assumptions were
generally Ultimate (often exactly 200 percent or 300 percent).
lower than the duration 10 shock lapse, although a few As
illustrated in the survey report, this represents a respondents
provided assumptions in duration 11 that very large jump in the
premium amount compared to were higher than duration 10. We expect
that this could the level period. be attributable to differences in
how companies are We asked about the differences between current
pre- calculating termination dates with regard to the grace mium
rates and guaranteed rates after the end of the period. The same
patterns could be seen for the assump- level period. The responses
were split fairly evenly tions provided for other level periods.
between products where the currents were set below Six respondents
adjusted their assumptions for the tim- the guarantees, products
where the currents were ing of off-anniversary lapses beyond the
level premium set equal to the guarantees, and products with only a
period. Preliminary findings from the Phase 2 experi- guaranteed
premium scale. ence study suggest that the timing of lapses in
duration Premium rates normally varied by risk class and face 11 is
skewed more toward the beginning of the policy Scott Rushing, FSA,
year than it is during the level period. This could have amount
band during the level period, but not during MAA, is an actuary for
a non-trivial impact on pricing. Even if the annualized the
post-level period. For the best preferred products, RGA,
Chesterfield, lapse assumptions are appropriate, policies may lapse
this creates an even larger jump in premium after the Mo. He can be
con- sooner than expected during policy duration 11. level period.
tacted at srushing@ Conversions are commonly allowed into any per-
rgare.com. The chart on page 5 (top) shows the lapse rate assump-
manent plan, although some respondents limited the products that
were available for conversion. tions by duration for a common
10-year term pricing cell. Conversions are also commonly allowed
until the The median assumption is plotted with a star and is con-
end of the level premium period prior to a specified nected by a
dark line across durations. The wide spread of attained age. We
noted that increasingly generous assumptions is plotted with a
vertical line connecting the conversion options create the
potential for term con- maximum and minimum assumption within each
policy versions to offer policyholders the same coverage at a
duration. Most respondents modeled the largest portion lower cost
than paying post-level period term rates. of the shock lapse at the
end of duration 10 and then either immediately dropped down to an
ultimate lapse rate in duration 11 or quickly graded down to an
ultimate level Shock Lapse Assumptions shortly thereafter. The
charts for the other level periods Respondents were asked to
provide their lapse assump- and pricing cells show similar
directional trends. tions for six durations beginning with the last
year of the level premium period. There was a wide range of assump-
tions provided, which varied by a number of different parameters
including issue age, risk class, premium pay- ment mode, premium
jump ratio, and level term period.4| JUNE 2010 | Product
Matters!
5. T10 Lapse Assumptions MaximumLapse Rate 80th percentile
Median 20th percentile Minimum Duration The following chart shows
the cumulative lapse rate starting in duration 10 in a similar
fashion. This view helps con- trol for some of the differences in
the shape of the lapse rate assumption by different companies. Some
respondents used smaller than average duration 10 shock lapses but
then followed it up with a higher than average duration 11 lapse
rate, while others used larger than average duration 10 shock
lapses followed immediately by a low ultimate lapse rate assumption
for durations 11 and later. T10 Lapse Assumptions: Cumulative
MaximumLapse Rate 80th percentile Median 20th percentile Minimum
Duration CONTINUED ON PAGE 6 Product Matters! | JUNE 2010 | 5
6. A Brief Look at the Phase 1 Survey | FROM PAGE 5 Mortality
Deterioration Assumptions Mortality deterioration multiples that
varied by duration As a direct consequence of anti-selective shock
lapse generally graded down. This wearing-off of anti-selec-
activity, it is common practice to assume mortality de- tion is
likely associated with the generally decreasing terioration among
the cohort of policies choosing to pay pattern of lapse assumptions
by duration after the initial the higher premiums after the level
period. Respondents shock lapse. were asked to provide the
mortality deterioration mul- For assumptions that varied by issue
age, mortality de- tiples they used to model this effect. As with
shock lapses, terioration generally increased slightly from issue
age there were a wide range of assumptions and practices pro- 25
through 55 with a lower multiple for duration 65. All vided. For
10-year term, 29 respondents provided details of these companies
used either the D-M or CIA VTP #2 of their mortality deterioration
assumption: method for developing their assumptions. The median
mortality deterioration multiple assump- Ten of the 33 companies
that provided shock lapse as- tion was 200 percent for T10 in
duration 11. For T20, sumptions assumed a different deterioration
for term the median mortality deterioration multiple assumption
conversions than they did for policies that continued was 250
percent in duration 21. to persist in the term policy beyond the
level premium Six respondents used a flat multiple after the end of
the period. level period, while others varied their assumptions by
Some correlation is evident between the size of the a number of
parameters including duration, issue age, shock lapse that was
assumed and the amount of mortal- level period, risk class, and
gender. ity deterioration that was assumed. A variety of methods
were listed for developing the de- terioration assumptions
including Dukes-MacDonald The chart below (left) shows the
mortality deteriora- (11), CIA Valuation Technique Paper #2 (7),
and tion assumptions provided for a common 10-year term
Becker-Kitsos (1). pricing cell. There is a wide range of
assumptions at each duration. As described previously, the
aggregated mortality deterioration assumptions generally started
grading down slightly after duration 12, although many respondents
provided multiples that were level across all T10 Mortality
Deterioration Assumption durations. The scatter plot on pg. 7 (top)
shows the relationship be- tween each companys shock lapse
assumption and their Monthly Deterioration Multiple mortality
deterioration assumption. Each triangle rep- resents a different
companys assumptions. In general, Maximum companies with larger
shock lapse assumptions tend to 80th percentile also assume higher
levels of mortality deterioration. This Median is particularly true
for companies using formula-based approaches to developing their
mortality deterioration 20th percentile assumptions. This
particular plot shows the mortality de- Minimum terioration
assumption in duration 12 as a function of the cumulative lapse
assumption in durations 10 through 11 for 10-year term, but other
level periods showed similar relationships. Duration6| JUNE 2010 |
Product Matters!
7. The scatter plot below (right) shows the same data for T10
Shock Lapse vs. Mortality Deterioration Assumptioncompanies that
described their post-level premium ratesas being 300 percent of
2001 CSO (or greater) or 200 per-cent of 2001 CSO (or less). This
should provide a general Monthly Deteioration Duration 12sense for
the size of the post-level period premium jumpbuilt into the
product design. It seems that companieswith larger post-level
premiums are assuming higher lev-els of shock lapse and mortality
deterioration, althoughthe sample size is admittedly small. When
looking atpreliminary Phase 2 experience data (and RGAs owninternal
data), we have seen a strong correlation betweenthe size of the
premium jump and the size of the shocklapse. It seems appropriate
that companies would varytheir assumptions
accordingly.ConclusionProduct development actuaries continue to
confrontthe challenges of understanding the implications
ofpolicyholder behavior. Post-level period assumptionsare critical
to the accurate pricing of term products, but Cumulative Lapse Rate
Duration 10 through 11experience is only now emerging to validate
and refineassumptions. It is important to analyze this
emergingexperience and then make the appropriate adjustments to T10
Shock Lapse vs. Mortality Deterioration Assumptionreflect the
differences in design characteristics of prod-ucts being issued
today. Monthly Deteioration Duration 12Wed like to express our
thanks to the SOA, the PDSection, and RGA for their support of this
researchproject. Wed also like to thank the SOA staff and
thevolunteers on the Project Oversight Group for their valu-able
contributions and guidance. We hope that Phase 1 ofthis research
has successfully synthesized the collectivethoughts of many
industry leaders around post-levelterm pricing and modeling
considerations. Stay tuned forPhase 2! Cumulative Lapse Rate
Duration 10 through 11 300% of 2001 CSO or Greater Less than or
Equal to 200% of 2001CSO Product Matters! | JUNE 2010 | 7
8. Interactions Between Dynamic Lapses and Interest Rates in
Stochastic Modeling By Yuhong Xue T he Joint Risk Management
Section of the ally reasonable to model dynamic lapses in a
stochastic Society of Actuaries recently published the model to
avoid understating liabilities. Consequently, it Policyholder
Behavior in the Tail Variable is not surprising to see that most of
the companies have Annuity Guaranteed Benefits Survey/C3 phase II
2009 incorporated dynamic lapses in their stochastic models
Results. According to the survey, the goal was to gain for
statutory reserve and capital calculations. But does insight into
companies assumptions of variable annu- it mean that the work is
done? Lets take a closer look. ity policyholder behavior in the
tail of the C3 Phase II Yuhong (Jason) Xue, calculation. The
modeling is often achieved by using a dynamic FSA, MAA, is an
officer lapse formula which acts to increase or decrease the of
Retirement Solutions The survey observed that an overwhelming
majority base lapse rates when policies are out-of- or in-the- at
the Guardian Life of insurers use dynamic lapses for living
benefits. The money. A formula that reduces the lapse rate when in-
Insurance of America percentage of insurers using dynamic lapses
has risen the-money and increases it when out-of-the-money is in
New York, NY. He from 83 percent in 2005 to 90 percent in 2009,
with a said to be two-sided. One that only decreases the lapse can
be reached at peak of 95 percent in 2008. Since most companies are
rate when in-the-money but does not increase it when
[email protected]. leveraging the expertise gained through their
C3 phase out-of-the-money is said to be one-sided. II efforts in
the VACARVM implementation, it is safe to assume that the same
observation can be made in the The extent to which the base lapse
rate is increased or VACARVM stochastic model as well. decreased
obviously depends on the parameters cho- sen. It also depends on
the definition of the guaranteed Dynamic lapses for variable
annuities reflect the phe- value which determines the level of
in-the-moneyness, nomenon that policyholders tend not to surrender
their the factor that ultimately drives the lapse rate. Take the
policies when the guarantees embedded in the contracts following
formula for example: are in-the-money. A policy is said to be
in-the-money when the guaranteed value exceeds the account value.
lapse rate = It is out-of-the-money when the account value is suf-
base lapse rate x 2 [MIN (account value / guaranteed value, 1) 1]
(1) ficient to cover the value of the guarantees. This is a
one-sided dynamic lapse formula. When Reducing lapse rates when the
policies are in-the- guaranteed value exceeds account value in
formula (1), money tends to increase liabilities. Hence, it is
gener- the base lapse rate will be multiplied by a factor less8|
JUNE 2010 | Product Matters!
9. than one, serving to reduce the base lapse rate. In fact,
very high because all these generate high claims duewhen the
guaranteed value is twice the account value, to the guarantees.
Therefore, one should carefullyor 200 percent in-the-money, the
base lapse rate will be ensure that a simple definition of the
guaranteed valuereduced to just 37 percent of its original value.
does not underestimate the liabilities in the tail. This is
particularly important when the measure of liabilityBut what is the
guaranteed value? Take a life-time is a percentile or conditional
tail expectation (CTE) ofguaranteed minimum withdrawal benefit
(GMWB) the distribution such as in the case of VACARVM andrider on
a variable annuity contract for example: Is it C3 Phase II.the
Guaranteed Withdrawal Balance (GWB) defined inthe contract? Or is
it the present value of the stream of For this article, the author
studied the interactionsfuture guaranteed payments? What interest
rates should between dynamic lapses and interest rate modelingbe
used to discount the stream of payments? Should a through a
stochastic model built for lifetime GMWBconstant rate be used
throughout the model? Or should riders. The dynamic lapse function
is as describedthe forward rates at the point of calculation be
used? in formula (1). The guaranteed value in the formula is
defined to be the present value of future paymentIn a stochastic
model, the forward rates are specific stream. Three alternatives of
the discount rate are con-to the time step and the scenario under
consideration. sidered: constant, stochastic interest rates
independentNaturally, how the interest rates are modeled also has
of equity returns, and stochastic interest rates with
cor-significant implications on the dynamic lapse func- relations
to equity returns.tion, since the guaranteed value that determines
thein-the-moneyness is influenced by the stochastically The GMWB
Ridermodeled discount rates. As if it is not already compli- For
illustration purposes only, the author modeled acated enough, the
account value, another factor in the life time GMWB rider which
charges 80 basis pointsin-the-moneyness calculation, is influenced
primarily and guarantees the following withdrawal rates for life:by
the equity markets whose performances are oftencorrelated with the
interest rates. Age of First Guaranteed Withdrawal WithdrawalAll
these factors: dynamic lapses, stochastic interest Raterates, and
correlations with the equity markets, are 50 4.0%all inter-related
in a stochastic model. Needless to 60 5.0%say, considering all of
their interactions can make the 70 6.0%model extremely complexnot
to mention resourceconsuming. It exemplifies perfectly the
balancing act 80 7.0%between model complexity and accuracy. But can
wesimply ignore the impact of interest rate modeling on If no
withdrawals are taken for 10 years, the riderdynamic lapses?
guarantees 180 percent of the initial premium as the withdrawal
base at the end of the 10th year. It also hasIn practice, we have a
tendency to simply either define an annual ratchet feature which
steps up the withdrawalthe guaranteed value at a constant discount
rate or to base if the account value is higher than the base
onassume interest rates to be independent of the equity
anniversaries.markets. However, one can easily imagine a
scenariowhere extremely low equity returns and low interest The
Cash Flow Modelrates drive the account value low but the guaranteed
Only cash flows due to the rider, specifically ridervalue high,
yielding high in-the-moneyness and very charges and claim payments,
are modeled explicitly.low lapse rates. The liabilities in this
scenario can be CONTINUED ON PAGE 10 Product Matters! | JUNE 2010 |
9
10. Interactions Between Dynamic Lapses | FROM PAGE 9 The
profit of the rider is defined to be the present value with the
value of the liability due to the rider, it can be of the rider
charges less the present value of the claims. used as an indirect
measure of the liability. The rider profit is often expressed
either as a ratio or as basis points (bps) of the present value of
the withdrawal Other cash flows such as M&E fees, revenue
sharing, base. For example, if the withdrawal base is $100,000
expenses, and commissions are not part of the cash every year for
the next 10 years, a profit of 10 bps flows that go into the profit
calculation, although they means $100 each year for the next 10
years. serve to reduce the account value in the projection. The
cash flows are projected over 1,000 equity and Other modeling
approaches are certainly possible. For interest rate scenarios. The
average profit over the example, we can model the base contract and
the rider 1,000 scenarios is used as the measure of the value of
together and consider all cash flows. We could use a the business.
Since profit has an inverse relationship different measure of
liability such as a percentile or CTE of the distribution of the
rider profit, or we could measure liability through accumulated
deficiency or The profit of the rider is defined to be the pres-
surplus as defined in AG 43 and RBC C3 Phase II. However, for
understanding the interactions of dynam- ent value of the rider
charges less the present value ic lapses and interest rate
modeling, the above simpli- fied approach serves the purpose. of
the claims. Equity and Interest Rate Scenarios Six equity indices
are modeled stochastically through a lognormal process. Means,
volatilities and correlations between the six indices are based on
historical data. The six indices are S&P500, Russell2000,
NASDAQ COMPOSITE, EAFE, BOND, and Money Market. The funds of the
policy with the GMWB rider are assumed to have a 60/40 allocation
between stocks and bonds. The short rate is modeled using the Cox,
Ingersoll, and Ross model, which is a one-factor equilibrium model
that reverts to a long-term mean. The formula for changes in the
short-term rate is as follows:10 | JUNE 2010 | Product
Matters!
11. The parameters are chosen as below: ... the guaranteed
value in the formula is the r0 1.24% present value of the future
payment stream that a a 15.0% b 5.0% or 3.0% policyholder could
receive if he or she starts the 7.5% lifetime withdrawal
immediately.The parameter r0 is the initial short rate; a is
referredto as the strength to mean reversion; b is the
long-termmean target; and is the short rate volatility. dz is
thesampling error of the standard normal distribution.The short
rate can be independent, or it can be corre-lated with equity
returns, in which case the correlationis defined as: Correlation
S&P500 Russell2000 Nasdaq Comp Bond EAFE Money Market Short
Rate (0.12) (0.10) (0.08) (0.14) (0.55) -Discount Rate to Determine
Discussion of ResultsGuaranteed Value The model is run with only
the following variations:The dynamic lapses formula used is as
described informula (1). At any given time-step of the projection,
As for the discount rate to determine the guaranteedthe guaranteed
value in the formula is the present value in formula (1),value of
the future payment stream that a policyholder 4 percent constant
discount rate, orcould receive if he or she starts the lifetime
withdrawal Short rate + 100 bpsimmediately. The discount rate can
be a constant inde-pendent of the short rates stochastically
generated in As for the correlation between the short rate in
thethe model; or it can be a function of the short rates. above
bullet point and the equity returns,Theoretically, the guaranteed
value is a measure of independent short rateshow much the guarantee
is worth to the policyholder if correlated short rates with equity
returnswithdrawal is taken immediately. The discount rate
todetermine this value should be comparable to the rate As for the
long-term reversion target of the short rateat which the
policyholder can annuitize the contract. model,This rate is often
derived from a long-term treasury rate 3 percent long-term
targetwhich is on the other end of the term structure of inter- 5
percent long-term targetest rate. For our purpose, the author
approximated theannuitization rate by adding 100 bps to the short
rate, The table on pg. 12 shows the average rider profit overand
defined this rate to be the discount rate at which the the 1,000
scenarios.guaranteed value is calculated. CONTINUED ON PAGE 12
Product Matters! | JUNE 2010 | 11
12. Interactions Between Dynamic Lapses | FROM PAGE 11 One
immediate observation from the table below is The explanation lies
in the fact that when the short rate that no matter what the
long-term view of interest rates and the equity returns are not
correlated, there are some is (whether its 3 percent or 5 percent);
the linkage of scenarios with very low interest rates and low
equity the dynamic lapse formula and the interest rates has
returns. The low equity returns result in reduced account a
material impact on the value of the liability. For values. The low
discount rate exacerbates the situation example, if the short-term
interest rate reverts to 3 by increasing the guaranteed value of
the contract in the percent long term and it varies independently
with the dynamic lapse formula, causing the contract to be more
equity returns, the profit is only 14 bps compared to the
in-the-money. The resulting lapse rates from applying 23 bps if
dynamic lapses are not linked to interest rates. the formula are
the lowest, which tends to increase liabil- ity. This is a classic
case of increased tail risk due to the On closer inspection, when
dynamic lapses and interest interactions of two or more variables.
rates are linked, a higher long-term interest rate gener- ally
reduces liability and helps profitability. The higher Final Words
discount rates reduce the guaranteed value of the con- How do we
address the question in the first section: tract, making them less
in-the-money, hence lapse rates can we be satisfied after building
in the dynamic lapse remain close to the base level. formula in a
stochastic model? The answer is that we need to carefully study the
interactions between dynamic The author has assumed a slightly
inverse correlation lapses and interest rates, making sure tail
risks are not between interest rates and equity returns. In other
overlooked. Even when a simplified approach is prefer- words, when
equity returns are low, interest rates tend able, such as using a
constant discount rate to determine to be high, and vice versa.
This inverse correlation the guaranteed value, we need to ensure
that it is consis- helps to reduce liability since when equity
returns are tent with the various interest rate assumptions such as
low, the high discount rates serve to reduce the guaran- long-term
mean and correlations to equity returns. teed value of the
contract. The dynamic lapse formula generates a higher lapse rate
than it would have if the As illustrated in the previous sections,
not fully under- interest rates and the equity returns were not
correlated. standing the interaction can result in material
differences in the calculation of liabilities. For pricing
applications, Perhaps the biggest surprise is the 14 bps profit
when this could mean not fully understanding profitability. the
short-term interest rate reverts to the 3 percent level For
valuation models, this could lead to understating or and the equity
returns move independently of the interest overstating VACARVM
reserves, FAS 133 reserves, rates. It is less than half of the 29
bps profit if the interest RBC, or Economic Capital. For hedging
applications, rates and equity returns are simply correlated,
every- this could result in under or over hedging the liability.
thing else being equal. This result could be even more dramatic if
a percentile or a CTE measure was used. Guaranteed Value 3% Long
Term Mean 5% Long Term Mean Discount Rate Reversion Target
Reversion Target 4% Constant Discount Rate 0.23% 0.23% Stochastic
Short Rate Independent 0.14% 0.25% of Equity Returns Stochastic
Short Rate with Correlation to 0.29% 0.31% Equity Returns12 | JUNE
2010 | Product Matters!
13. A Look Ahead to the Fall Society of Actuaries MeetingBy Tom
Phillips and Mitchell KatcherIn only a few months, it will be time
for the Fall Society And, of course, there will be networking
opportunitiesof Actuaries meeting. The Product Development Section
on a variety of topics at our usual hot breakfast. The fallCouncil
is putting together a timely and relevant pro- meeting is always a
good opportunity to renew acquain-gram for the product actuaries
attending the meeting. tances with product actuaries.The program
will provide practical information on theproduct market and product
development process for life As of the writing of this article,
most of the speakers andand annuity actuaries. specific topics were
still being worked out, so please check regularly with the Society
of Actuaries website for Tom PhillipsAs you recall, last fall the
Section Council surveyed sec- the latest on the fall meeting.tion
members, inquiring into topics that would be mostbeneficial for
sessions at Society meetings. We receivedfeedback from hundreds of
product actuaries on thatsurvey. In addition, the Council has
reviewed the ses-sions from the 2009 Annual Meeting to help develop
theschedule for the October, 2010, meeting.Both the survey results
and the meeting attendance showthat product actuaries are
interested in the latest devel-opments in the life and annuity
marketplace. For thefall meeting in 2010, there will be two product
updatesessionsone on life products and another on annuities.Those
will update actuaries on trends and issues in themarket as the
industry recovers from the recession. Inaddition, there is always
strong demand for the latest Mitchell Katcherresearch and
statistics on mortality and well be includ-ing a mortality update
session in the meeting.The survey results noted there is a strong
interest inpricing and product implications under the
upcomingprinciple-based approach to valuation and the fall meet-ing
will include a session on that topic.Issues related to VACARVM are
also timely and theCouncil is planning a session on the challenges
andlessons learned so far from its implementation. Also inthe
annuity area, there will be a session on RetirementProducts, which
will highlight the methods for provid-ing retirement income,
associated financial risks, andproducts for that market.There is a
considerable amount of activity on the regula-tory front, including
the principle-based approach, theinternational financial reporting
standards, and SolvencyII. The regulatory activity will be the
subject of a fallsession. Other product sessions will cover the
ProductDevelopment Process and Market Consistent Pricing. Product
Matters! | JUNE 2010 | 13
14. 14 | JUNE 2010 | Product Matters!
15. Universal Life and Indexed UL TrendsBy Susan J. SaipM
illiman, Inc. recently conducted its third rent assumption UL
products from 2008 to YTD annual comprehensive survey of leading
June 30, 2009. The table at the bottom of this page Universal Life
(UL) insurers to discover summarizes the average ages calculated
based on salescurrent dynamics of the UL market. UL insurance plays
reported by issue age range and gender for 2008 anda significant
role in the life insurance market, account- YTD June 30, 2009.ing
for about 41 percent of U.S. individual life insur- 70%ance sales
(based on annualized premium) for calendaryear 2009.1 The survey
included the following UL 60%product types: UL with secondary
guarantees (ULSG), Percent of Total Individual UL Salescash
accumulation UL, current assumption UL, and 50%indexed UL (IUL).
Twenty-two carriers participatedin the survey. Some of the
highlights of the study are 40%summarized in this article. 30%Sales
56% 66%The chart on the right (top) shows the mix of sales 20% 57%
56%(excluding IUL sales) reported by survey participantsfor
calendar years 2006 through 2008 and for 2009 10% 29% 28% 27% 23%
17%as of June 30 (YTD June 30, 2009). For purposes of 13% 15%
12%the survey, sales were defined as the sum of recurring 0% 2006
2007 2008 YTD 6/30/09premiums plus 10 percent of single premiums.
Overall,there was a shift from both cash accumulation UL sales ULSG
Cash Accumulation UL Current Assumption ULand current assumption UL
sales to ULSG sales. The distribution of ULSG sales by underwriting
classAverage amounts per policy reported by survey par- was similar
between 2008 and YTD June 30, 2009.ticipants for all UL types fell
from 2008 to YTD June30, 2009, on both a premium and face amount
basis. Gender ULSG Cash Current IULULSG average amounts per policy
(premium and face Accumulation Assumption ULamount) and current
assumption average premiums per ULpolicy had also dropped from 2007
to 2008. From 2008 Based on 2008 Sales Premiumto YTD June 30, 2009,
the total UL average premiumper policy dropped from $9,956 to
$6,797 and the total Male 62 63 60 51average face amount per policy
dropped from $339,300 Female 65 63 57 52to $299,000. The drop was
even more significant for Based on 2008 Sales Face AmountIUL plans.
From 2008 to YTD June 30, 2009, IULaverage premium per policy
dropped from $20,915 to Male 56 51 49 42$7,812 and average face
amount per policy dropped Female 57 50 45 42from $519,500 to
$313,400. Perhaps some insurers Based on 6/30/09 Sales Premiumhave
taken steps to limit their large face amount and oldage business,
which led to a drop in average premiums, Male 62 55 53 51average
face amounts, and as noted below, average Female 64 53 49 52issue
ages. Based on 6/30/09 Sales Face AmountA weighted average issue
age was determined for Male 55 45 42 42sales of survey participants
based on the midpoint Female 55 42 39 41of specified issue age
ranges. Average ages droppedsignificantly for cash accumulation UL
and cur- 1 LIMRA International, Inc CONTINUED ON PAGE 16 Product
Matters! | JUNE 2010 | 15
16. Universal Life and Indexed UL Trends | FROM PAGE 15
However, there was a shift in sales to the top non- Profit Measures
smoker/non-tobacco (NS/NT) classes from 2008 to The predominant
profit measure reported by survey YTD June 30, 2009 for cash
accumulation UL, cur- participants continues to be an after-tax,
after-capital rent assumption UL, and IUL sales. A reduction in the
statutory return on investment/internal rate of return number of
underwriting classes was also reported by (ROI/IRR). Few
participants changed their profit goals some survey participants,
consistent with a move to or measures due to the recent financial
crisis. The medi- simplified issue plans. an ROI/IRR profit target
reported was 12 percent for all products. Seventy-three percent of
survey participants also use secondary measures in pricing UL
products. Actual YTD June 30, 2009 Results Relative To Profit Goals
Actual profit results for YTD June 30, 2009 relative to 100% profit
goals were not as favorable for survey partici- 9% 11% pants as in
the past. The chart on the left shows the per- 90% 23% centage of
survey participants reporting they are falling short of, meeting,
or exceeding their profit goals. 80% 47% 70% Target Surplus The
majority of survey participants reported target 60% surplus
relevant to pricing new UL sales issued today 73% on an NAIC basis.
The overall NAIC risk-based capital 50% 78% 62% percent of company
action level ranged from 200 per- 40% cent to 350 percent for ULSG
and cash accumulation markets, and from 250 percent to 350 percent
for cur- 30% rent assumption markets and IUL markets. Few partici-
53% 20% pants indicate they are well prepared for the changes to
the C-3 component of risk-based capital. 10% 18% 15% 11% Reserves
0% Most respondents to the survey expect that principle- ULSG Cash
Current IUL Accumulation Assumption based reserves (PBR) will be in
place in 2012 at the earliest. Participants comments regarding
their outlook Exceeding on the impact of PBR were nearly evenly
split between those that do not expect a material impact and those
Meeting that expect a reduction in reserves. The majority of
participants have not examined the underwriting crite- Falling
Short ria scoring system for establishing a valuation mortal- ity
table. Also, few survey participants have modeled PBR-type reserves
on existing UL products. Thirteen of the 22 participants are using
or moving toward pre- Most respondents to the survey expect that
prin- ferred mortality splits and/or lapses in reserves.
ciple-based reserves (PBR) will be in place in 2012 Risk Management
at the earliest. The cost of financing assumed in pricing ULSG
prod- ucts currently ranges from 100 to 300 bps. Three survey
participants assume the same costs that were assumed a year ago,
three assume a lower cost and two assume a higher cost than that
assumed one year ago.16 | JUNE 2010 | Product Matters!
17. Nearly half of survey participants are reacting to the
market LTC combination plans within two years andcurrent
marketplace by riding it out and eight of the an even higher
percentage expect to offer some type of22 participants are
repricing. The implications of the LTC solution.recent financial
crisis on capital solutions are variedamong survey participants.
Nearly one-third of survey Eighteen survey participants currently
offer a livingparticipants reported very little or no implications.
benefit or expect to offer a living benefit in the nextOther
participants reported implications that relate 12 months. In nearly
all cases, participants are provid-to limited external funding
solution availability and/ ing an accelerated death benefit,
primarily for terminal Susan J. Saip, FSA, MAAA,or costs. illness.
is consulting actuary for Milliman, Inc. She can be contacted at:
sue.saip@Underwriting Compensation milliman.com.Table-shaving
programs are offered by seven of the Compensation structures are
quite varied among survey22 participants, and all reported their
programs will be participants. About half of the companies do not
varycontinued. commissions and marketing allowables by product
type. Median commissions, as well as the range ofThe most popular
emerging underwriting tools being commissions, were similar between
ULSG and cashused by survey participants, especially at the older
accumulation UL. IUL products had slightly higherages, are
prescription drug databases (16), cognitive first-year and renewal
commissions. Current assump-impairment testing (11),
tele-underwriting/telephonic tion UL products had the highest
first-year and renewalscreening (11), and activities of daily
living (ADL) commissions.measures (11). Rolling target premiums are
becoming more commonA few participants (five) have special
simplified under- in ULSG compensation programs. Target premiums
arewriting products and each described a different special commonly
rolled for two years.market where the product is used. PricingThe
majority of survey participants have created unique The use of
stochastic modeling to evaluate ULSGpreferred risk parameters for
the older ages. The use investment risk is used by nine out of 18
participants.of such parameters has increased year-by-year based
This level of use has been constant for the past severalon the use
reported in Millimans previous two annual years, but is
surprisingly low given the industrys great-surveys. er awareness of
the risks involved in ULSG products and the movement from a
formula-based framework toProduct Design a principle-based
approach.Twelve participants repriced their ULSG design in thelast
12 months. The general level of premium rates on Seven participants
reported their mortality assumptionsthe new basis versus the old
basis increased for six are strictly based on company experience.
All otherparticipants and decreased for four participants. Ten
participants use various combinations of companyparticipants intend
to modify their secondary guarantee experience, guidance from
reinsurers, and consultantsproducts in the next 12 months.
recommendations in developing mortality assumptions. The majority
of survey participants reported that theFive survey participants
currently offer a long-term slope of their mortality assumption is
more similarcare (LTC) accelerated benefit rider, however some to
the 2001 Valuation Basic Table (VBT) than theaddress the need via
chronic care benefits. Eight com- 1975-1980 Select & Ultimate
Table or the 2008 VBT.panies expect to develop an LTC combination
product Most participants vary their preferred to standard ratioin
the next 12 to 24 months, which when coupled with by issue age
and/or by duration. Nearly two-thirds ofthe five companies already
offering LTC riders, implies the companies assume that preferred to
standard ratesthat nearly 60 percent of survey respondents expect
to eventually converge and one-third assume they do not CONTINUED
ON PAGE 18 Product Matters! | JUNE 2010 | 17
18. Universal Life and Indexed UL Trends | FROM PAGE 17
converge. Thirteen of the 22 participants do not assume the
industry. The UL/IUL survey provides carriers with mortality
improvement in pricing UL/IUL products. a benchmark for this
purpose and enables them to see how they stack up relative to the
competition. Conclusion Universal Life is a competitive market in a
constantly The executive summary of the March 2010 Universal
changing environment which requires insurers to stay Life and
Indexed Universal Life Issues report may current with the latest
happenings. Benchmarking be found at
http://www.milliman.com/expertise/life- against other carriers
enables insurers to evaluate their financial/publications/rr.
processes and practices relative to those prevalent in18 | JUNE
2010 | Product Matters!
19. NAIC Update March 2010 MeetingBy Donna R. ClaireT he March
2010 NAIC meeting was March 24 on this part of the manual has been
completed. to March 28, 2010 in Denver. (Note to meeting A number
of issues were discussed at LHATF. plannersit can still snow a lot
in March in There was a discussion on what products shallDenver!
Some flights were canceled and some inter- be includedthe group has
developed a test thatstates closed as up to a foot of snow
accumulated.) determines which products would be included from day
one. If the product fails the test,The remainder of this article
summarizes my notes on reserves will default to the current CRVM
meth-the meetings I attended, or reports from friends and odology.
An updated version of VM-20 was Donna R. Claire, FSA,colleagues:
exposed. MAAA, is president of Claire Thinking, Inc. c. M-21
Variable Annuities: This section will V She can be reached atLife
and Health Actuarial Task Force [email protected] Bruning
started the meeting by stating the bring in the Variable Annuity
CARVM Actuarialgoalsto make further movement in the principle-
Guideline, which became effective at year-based approach to
reserves. The goal was to finish end 2009. This section is ready
for the initialcertain items at this meeting, and to have
conference Valuation Manual.calls to potentially vote on the
Valuation Manual beforethe next NAIC meeting, which is in August.
Larry men- d. M-25andVM-26: VM-25, the health section Vtioned that
there are four major areas where there is still that essentially
continues the current rules forwork needed: these are the net
premium approach being health insurance, is now finished. The
VM-26worked on by the ACLI; more work on margins; asset section on
credit insurance has been complet-issues including assumed spreads
on reinvestment; and ed and was adopted for the initial
Valuationmortality. Manual. e. M-30,31,PBRReportingandReview: Katie
VValuation Manual Campbell heads this effort. VM-30 has alreadyAs
with the last Life and Health Actuarial Task Force been adopted for
the preliminary Valuation(LHATF) meeting, much of the meeting was
spent Manual. A new version of VM-31 was exposedreviewing the work
of the LHATF subgroups working for comment.on various sections of
the Valuation Manual: f. M-50, 51, PBR Experience Reporting: Fred V
a. M-00, 01, Process and Coordination: Mike V Andersen is heading
this effort. The ACLI has Boerner heads the LHATF team on this part
of requested that data collection should be used the Manual (as
well as heading the Academy to create an industry table, but
individual com- team on the Valuation Manual in general). One pany
data should come directly from companies. issue is determining the
scope of the Manual Updated drafts on these documents were exposed
from day oneit appears that the answer may for comments. be a
simple test to determine which life insur- ance products shall be
covered and which will be excluded from the Manual. Variable
annuities Related Issues are in, while fixed annuities will not
make the There were a number of topics discussed at LHATF, 2009
Manual. There is still work to be done on most related to SVL and
the Valuation Manual. These definitions that is expected to be
completed in include: the next couple of weeks. PBAOverview: I gave
a brief presentation on behalf b. M-20, Life: Pete Weber heads the
LHATF V of the Academys Life Practice Council and Life group on
VM-20. Pete has had numerous con- Financial Soundness/Risk
Management Committee. I ference calls on VM-20, and most of the
work stated that although we continue to support PBA, we CONTINUED
ON PAGE 20 Product Matters! | JUNE 2010 | 19
20. NAIC Update | FROM PAGE 19 have concerns that the PBR
project is deviating from its looking to develop new valuation
tables for guaran- original intent, with an abundance of rules and
margins teed and simplified issues. A survey on these products
being considered. has been sent to companies to determine how to
best approach this project. Preferred Mortality: Tom Rhodes gave a
report on credibility, based on a study he had done on behalf
NetPremiumApproach:John Bruins continued dis- of the SOA. Note that
this report is available on the cussing the net premium approach to
PBA reserving, SOA website (www.soa.org). He also referred to the
which the ACLI states is needed for federal income
PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) study performed for tax deductibility
of reserves. The ACLI has submitted the SOA, which is also
available on the SOA website. some proposed changes to VM-20 to
handle the net The studies will be important for the determination
of premium approach. Note that this is the biggest open assumptions
such as mortality under PBA. Tom stated issue on the life insurance
PBA reserves. that one needs margins because of random
fluctuations, and for the misestimate of experience assumptions.
RBC C3Phase2, andActuarialGuideline43: The Mary Bahna-Nolan
provided an update on preferred consulting firm Oliver Wyman
provided a presentation mortality work performed by the Academy of
Actuaries on its observations regarding VA statutory account- and
Society of Actuaries. Mary suggested that revisions ing results.
One observation was that companies with be made to the VM-20
section to remove the require- established hedging programs were
seeing an impact on ment to tie the mortality assumptions to a CSO
table. statutory results that was not intuitive. As a result some
Mary stated that they are working to incorporate cred- companies
may have modified some of their hedg- ibility work into VM-20. One
open question is how to ing strategies to provide better statutory
results, even state a margin on mortality assumptions without
raising though such modifications may have not been optimal tax
issues. Mary also mentioned that the group is con- with respect to
hedging for the underlying risks. Other tinuing to target 2012 for
a new mortality table. observations were that the AG43 standard
scenario was the dominant reserve for a majority of companies
Payout Annuities: Mary Bahna-Nolan provided an (as of 12/31/09),
that the AG43 standard scenario has update on the joint SOA/Academy
group. The group is opposing and decreased interest rate
sensitivity as looking at developing a new valuation table. The
expe- compared to the stochastic results, and that aggregate rience
study portion has been completed. The SOA/ reinsurance produced
strange reserve patterns in the