1
Indian Paper Industry &The Role of Recovered Paper (RP)
The IndustryPresent Status of
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Slides
Installed
Present Status of the Industry
Production
ImportsExports
1312.20
million tonnes
Consumption
0.602.30
13.90
Source IPMA
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‐ +
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2
Production TrendFuture Projection Of
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Future Projection Of Production Trend
2010
-11
2011
-12
2012
-13
2013
-14
2014
-15
5.2 5.4 4.84.3 4.3
• The Growth rate for the Indian Paper Industry as projected by the industry 7.5 – 8% per Annum
Gro
wth
%
• This growth pattern is based on following
trend as circulated by the country’s Central
Bank ( The Reserve Bank of India) and the
Central Statistical Office of the Govt of India:
• A more rational projected growth would work out to 4.87 – 5.4% per Annum.
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Future Projection Of Production Trend
Considering an average ball park of @
5.5% per annum,
little above the historical max, the Projected
Production & Consumption for the Indian Paper
Industry are more likely to be :‐
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3
Future Projection Of Production Trend
2020-21
2025-26
PROJECTED PRODUCTIONPROJECTED CONSUMPTION
PROJECTED PRODUCTIONPROJECTED CONSUMPTION
16.2317.73
22.5920.69
Million tons
5.5% per annum
@
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Raw Material UsageThe Present Status Of
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The Present Status Of Raw Material Usage
Recovered Paper 6.59
Virgin ( Wood + Bamboo) 5.40
Agro ( Straw + Bagasse) 4.09
Total 16.08
Recovered Paper 5.73
Virgin ( Wood + Bamboo) 3.90
Agro ( Straw + Bagasse) 2.56
Total 12.20
ACTUAL FIBRE USAGE BASIS END PRODUCT BASIS
Million Tons
Million Tons
Slides
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4
The Present Status Of Raw Material Usage
85% or 4.59 million tns are sourced indigenously and balance
Virgin Fibre
15% or 0.81 million tns are imported.
Slides
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However, in the next 10 year virgin fibre based mills will continue to remain within 1/3rd of India’s total paper production, primarily due to limited availability of forest based raw material, arising out of :
Virgin Fibre
• Growing population, receding forest
• Absence of industrial forestry
• Increased demand for agricultural land
• Higher demand for cash crop
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The Present Status Of Raw Material Usage
Agro ResidueGrowth of agro residue based paper production will also remain around the present level due to :
• Environmental reasons
• Limitations in the end product quality
• Higher carrying cost over longer distance
• Alternative rural usage at the point of generation
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5
Therefore , the road for growth for the Indian Paper Industry lies through
Recovered PaperSlides
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The Present
Recovered PaperSlides
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Recovered Paper: The Present
Import3.70 m tons
Indigenous RP2.89 m tons21%Total Paper
Consumption13.9 m tons
Total RP6.59 m tons
Paper industry receiving only
Of RP from total paper consumption
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+5.40 m tons
4.09 m tons
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6
56%
44%
PRESENT RP SOURCING
IMPORT INDIGENOUS
Recovered Paper: The Present
IMPORT 3.70
INDIGENOUS 2.89
TOTAL 6.59
Million Tons
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43%
22%
13%
9%
5%8%
IMPORTS
US MIDDLE EAST EUROPE UK SRILANKA OTHERS
US
1.59 m tons Middle East
0.82 m tons
Europe
0.47 m tonsUK
0.34 m tons
Srilanka
0.17 m tons
Others
0.31 m tons
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Raison D’etreFor Using RP In India• Fibre shortage
PRPR EIRPG
• Fibre quality
• Power constraints
• Improved Paper M/C run ability
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7
Usage trend PRPR EIRPG
(Import)
• Majority of RP users have
Deinking Plants – hence bulk of
the offtake are Deinking Grades
for the WPP units.
• For Kraft producing units the
focus grades are DS OCC,
followed by NDLK.
• Bleaching Grades, not much in
demand, since higher prices make
it uneconomical for mills requiring
such grades, in terms of their end
products.
Slides
• Grades like SBS ( both printed and
unprinted) PCS (Both printed and
unprinted) Tissue Wastes have limited
and specific requirements.
• Pulp substitute grades, at present, do
not find much favour since Pulp prices
are at 485 – 495 USD level.
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IndigenousHow Sourced
PRPR EIRPG
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72.6%
8.65%
18.68%
INDIGENOUS SOURCES
HOUSEHOLD THROUGH HAWKERS :NEWSPAPERS, MAGAZINES, BOOKSETC.
CONTRACTORS : PRINTERS' WASTE
CONTRACTORS/OFFICERS/EDUCATIONAL INS./ INDUSTRIES ETC :CARTONS, BOXES, EXAM BOOKLETS,OLD RECORDS & FILES
Indigenous – How Sourced Source : ITC/ WOW
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8
Easier Availability
Less inventory holding
Easier transportability
Favourable pricing
Not subject to currency
Fluctuation and foreign Exchange outgo
Known parameters
For Against Weak fibre
Quality limitation vis‐a‐ vis end product
No clear cut standards
Limited availability within a given
distance
Case For & Against Indigenous RP
Indigenous – How Sourced
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Projected RP Requirement for the Indian Paper IndustrySlides
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Projected RP Requirement for the Indian Paper Industry
7.79
10.34
8.11
10.75
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2020‐21
2025‐26
PROJECTED RP REQUIREMENT
OPTIMISTIC BASE
@5.5%per annum,
Theoretically large potential exists for indigenous Recovered Paper generation
PRPR
Million Tons
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Projected RP Requirement for the Indian Paper Industry
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
COPIER WPP (PRECONSUMER)
WPP (POSTCONSUMER)
PACKING (PRECONSUMER)
PACKING (POSTCONSUMER)
NEWS PAPER(PRE
CONSUMER)
NEWS PAPER(POST
CONSUMER)
POTENTIAL FOR RECOVERY OF INDEGENOUS RP
COLLECTED NOT COLLECTED
PRPR
According to IRPMA ‐2011
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• All these, together with alternative usage of RP at the point of
generation limiting indigenous recovery for the paper industry.
HOWEVER LACK OF ......
• Clear cut Waste Management Policy
• Institutional mechanism for collection of RP
• Transport system for such wastes
• Adequate storage space
• Social awareness and education
Projected RP Requirement for the Indian Paper Industry
PRPR
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Potential For Recovery Of Indigenous RP
Despite potential, the limiting factors will prevent recovery from going much beyond 25 – 30% in 2020 and 2025The potential for indigenous RP fibre generation (after considering yield loss at 20%) expected to be pegged at :
3.26
4.52
3.54
5.06
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
2020‐21
2025‐26
EXPECTED INDIGENOUS RP GENERATION
OPTIMISTIC BASE
EIRPGPRPR
Million Tons
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10
Potential For Recovery Of Indigenous RP
0
0
0
11
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
2020‐21
2025‐26
GAP IN RP
OPTIMISTIC BASE
10.75 ‐ 5.06 = 5.69
10.34 ‐ 4.52 = 5.82
8.11 ‐ 3.54 = 4.57
7.79 ‐ 3.26 = 4.53
PROJECTED RP REQUIREMENT
EXPECTED INDIGENOUS RP GENERATION
‐ = GRPGAP IN RP
The GAP in RP supply after generation through indigenous recovery, will work out to:
PRPR EIRPG
Million Tons
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The GAP hovering around
Potential For Recovery Of Indigenous RP
5.00 to 6.00 million tons
needs to be catered through
imports.
PRPR EIRPG
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• Multiple sources
Potential For Recovery Of Indigenous RP
IN FAVOUR OF IMPORTS
PRPR EIRPG • No other way to fill gap
• Quality of fibre superior
• Standard grading
• Continuity of supplySlides
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Potential Sources Comparison Of
PRPR EIRPG
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Comparatives Of Potential Sources
4
US
UKEurope
Middle East
major sources for imports
Comparison Of Potential Sources
PRPR EIRPG
Slides
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• Sometime, Indian paper is brought back through recovery from the Middle East.
Comparison Of Potential Sources
FEATURES OF SOURCES
PRPR EIRPG
• Absence of large quantity News Grade import from any source.
• Europe has reached optimum generation of 70% and recycling within Eurozone limits exportable quantity.
• UK sterling Pound exchange rate being higher, prices are not competitive.
• Middle East have limited availability, grade wise.Slides
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Comparison Of Potential Sources
US stands out as the primary and the largest source of Recovered Paper Supply to India because of :
PRPR EIRPG• Quality of fibre
• Wider variety of grades
• Easier convertibility of currency
• Wider b2b contacts.
Slides
• Sometime bad business practices, at both ends.
BOTTLENECK
• Primarily shipping and freight
• Longer lead time
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ConclusionPRPR EIRPG
4.5US being the largest source of supply
million tns of RP for the Indian Paper industry
With gap of above
Opportunities for RP supplies from the US to India are :‐
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Enormous• With extremely reliable banking system and regulatory mechanism
• Stable democratic set up, based on rule of law
• International language of communication
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The Indian market for RP for US suppliers awaiting full utilization.
Conclusion
PRPR EIRPG
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13
WELCOME TO INDIA
Data Visualisation and Graphics:
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