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PRE-COLONIAL ETHNICINSTITUTIONS ANDCONTEMPORARY
AFRICANDEVELOPMENT
STELIOS MICHALOPOULOS AND ELIAS PAPAIOANNOUEconometrica, Vol. 81, No. 1, January 2013, 113 – 152
LluisAragonésFerri
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Contents
1. Literature Review2. Data3. Ethnic Homeland
Analysis4. Pixel-Level Analysis5. Conclusion
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1. Literature Review
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Ethnic Institutions: Past & Present
▪ Herbst (2000), Europeans hadlimited impact on local political
structures because colonizationlimited in timing & location.
▪ Mamdani (1996), colonizers inseveral occasions strengthenedtribal chiefs via indirect rule.
▪ Englebert (2009), eve of Africanindependence, failure of somecountries limiting the role ofethnic institutions, as lack ofnational government to provide
public goods.
Literature Review
Institutional origins of Africanunderdevelopment
▪ Acemoglu, Johnson, and
Robinson (2001, 2002) and LaPorta, de Silanes, Shleifer, andVishny (1997, 1998): empiricalimpact of colonization incomparative development effect oncontractual institutions and
property rights protection in Africa.
▪ Herbst (2000): role of deeplyrooted, ethnic institutionalcharacteristics.
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Channels through which ethnicinstitutions shape contemporaryeconomic activity.
▪
Diamond (1997) and Acemogluand Robinson (2012), study howethnic groups forming largestates organized bureaucracies.
▪ Acemoglu and Robinson (2012),
Tribal societies with strongpolitical institutions moresuccessful obtaining concessionsfrom colonial powers & nationalgovernments afterindependence.
Literature Review
Importance of ethnic institutions
Baldwin (2010), ethnic localchiefs’ community support andpopularity.
Glennerster, Miguel, andRothenberg (2010), Acemoglu,Reed, and Robinson (2012), Inmany countries, Local leaders
collect taxes & provide basicpublic goods.
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2. Data
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Data on the locationof historical ethnichomelands
▪ George Peter Murdock’s (1959)ethnolinguistic map (Spatial distributionof ethnicities across Africa at beginningof European colonization mid/late 19thcentury).
▫ 843 tribal areas (levels 7-8 ofEthnologue’s (2005) language familytree).▫ Nun & Wantcheckon (2011) usingindividual data Afrobarometer, showed
0.55 correlation between location of therespondents (2005) & historical homelandof their ethnicity.
▪ This study intersect Murdock’sethnolinguistic map with 2000 DigitalChart of the World for contemporary
national boundaries.
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Ethnic InstitutionalTraits
▪ Murdock (1967) produced anEthnographic Atlas, coding aprx. 60variables (cultural, geographical &economic characteristics) of 1270ethnicities in the world.▪ Clustering into 96 ethnolinguisticfamilies.
▪ Murdock’s (1967) ”JurisdictionalHierarchy index”:
▫0: stateless societies▫ 1: Petty chiefdoms▫ 2: Paramount chiefdoms.▫ 3 & 4: Pre-colonial states.
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Satellite LightDensity at Night
▪ Use satellite light density at night (proxy oflocal economic activity), from the DefenseMeteorological Satellite Program’s OperationalLinescan System. Capturing lights from humansettlements, fires, gas flares, lighting & aurora.▪Construct average light density per for2007 & 2008.
▫ Henderson, Storeygard, and Weil (2012) andprevious works (e.g., Elvidge, Baugh, Kihn,Kroehl, and Davis (1997), Doll, Muller, andMorley (2006)). The use of luminosity data is as a
proxy for development, showing that light densityat night is a robust proxy of economic activity.▫ Even Chen and Nordhaus (2011), shortcomings(saturation and blooming), not big problem inAfrica.
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Cross-validation: SatelliteLight Density at Night /Development
▪ 1st) Explore within country variation.
▪ 2nd) Examined relationship between log lightdensity & economic performance using micro-level data from Demographic and HealthSurveys (DHS)(Composite wealth index).
▪ 3rd) Derive average wealth index acrosshouseholds and associate it with light density ofeach DHS area, radius (10km). Correlation 0.7.
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3. Ethnic HomelandAnalysis
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Empirical framework
▪ Relationship between pre-colonial ethnic institutions and developmentacross ethnic homelands. Variants of this form:
▪, = + + + , + , + , Where:
▫,: Level of economic activity in homeland of ethnic group I, country c (proxiedby light density at night).
▸Shortcomings: as distribution of luminosity across ethnic homelands not
normal.▸, ≡ ln(0.01 + ℎ , ) For use of all observations.
▸, ≡ ln(ℎ ,) Ignoring unlit areas.
▫: Country fixed effects.▫: Local ethnic institutions (degree of jurisdictional hierarchy).
▫, = ln( ), likely endogenous to ethnic institutional
development. (
, ,
) ≠ 0
▫ ,: Set of conditioning variables at ethnic-country level. Geography and otherfactors. As land endowments (elevation and area under water), ecologicalfeatures (malaria stability index, land suitability for agriculture), naturalresources (diamond mines & petroleum fields) and location ethnic area within acountry (distance of centroid of each ethnicity I in country c from capital,national border and nearest sea coast, measuring impact of colonization).
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Annex A.1
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Table II (Preliminary Evidence)
, ≡ ln(0.01 + ℎ , )
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Table III (Benchmark Fixed Effects)
,≡ ( ,).
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Table IVA ) , ≡ ln 0.01 + ℎ ,
) , ≡ + + , + , + ,
) , ≡ + + + ,+ ,
+ ,
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4. Pixel-Level Analysis
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Advantages PixelLevel
▪ The unit of analysis: pixel of 12.5km x 12.5km. Exclude pixels with 0population through Probit Linear model. Advantages pixel level:
▫ 1. Can condition on geography, natural resources & the disease environmentat a finer level.▫ 2. Dependent variable=indicator for lit pixels (not concern on nonlinear nature
of luminosity).
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Empirical framework
▪ ,, = + + + ,, + ,, + , + ,,
▪ Same specifications, but reduction in some controls to a pixel level.
▪ ,, : Other controls at pixel level, p.
T bl V
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Table V,, = + + + ,, + ,,
+ , + ,,
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Contiguous EthnicHomeland Analysis
▪ One may still be worried that unobservable local geographic feature isdriving the results:
▫ Solution: focus on contiguous ethnicities with a different degree of pre-colonial political centralization in same country.
▪ Specification:
▪ ,(), = , + + ,, + ,, + ,(), Not X
Table VI Validation
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Table VI. Validation
,, = , + + ,(),
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Further Evidence
▪ To further assuage concerns that some local unobserved geographicfeature is driving the results ⇒ analysis to pixels close to ethnic boundary.(Similar to regression discontinuity).
▪ Procedure: Estimation in areas close to ethnic boundaries, excludingpixels that fall within 25km or 50km from each side of border. Within
adjacent ethnic homelands with different pre-colonial political institutionsin same country.
Table VIII Panel A
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Table VIII – Panel A
,(), = + ,(),
Table VIII Panel B
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Table VIII – Panel B
,(), = , + + ,, + + ,, + ,(),
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▪ Figure 5(B), excluding 25km ateach side of the ethnic border,differences in pixel-level lightdensity become significant.
DiscontinuityAnalysisVisualization
▪ Figure 5(A), including boundarypixels, differences are insignificantexactly at the ethnic border.
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Conclusion
▪ Combination of data on spatial distribution and local institutions ofAfrican ethnicities (colonization time), with satellite images of light densityat night, to asses development.▪ Development higher in homelands of ethnicities with centralized,hierarchical, pre-colonial political institutions. (Not necessarily causation).▪ No effect of observable differences in geographic, ecological, natural
resource endowments, culture, occupational specialization or structure ofeconomic activity before colonization.▪ Positive link between pre-colonial ethnic political institutions andluminosity within pairs of ethnic homelands in same country.
▫ Future Research1. Move beyond country-level and ethnicities features.
2. Which ethnic institutional & cultural traits shape economic performance.3. Theory and empirics on how local ethnic institutions and cultural norms
emerge.4. Interplay between ethnic traits and national policies.
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Thank you for your
attention!!Any questions?You can find me at [email protected]
Annex Table I
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Annex Table I
Table III
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Table III
Table VII
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Table VII
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