Potential impacts of the increased deployment of advanced driver assistance

systems on the numbers of killed or seriously injured (KSI) car occupants,

pedestrians and cyclists in NorwayAlena Høye

Truls VaaIngeborg Storesund Hesjevoll

Institute of Transport EconomicsOslo, Norway

Passenger car: Head on; 23.9 %

Passenger car: Off road; 20.0 %

Passenger car: Rear-end 2.5 %Passenger car: Other 6.3 %

Pedestrian in car crash8.4 %

Cyclist in car crash4.4 %

Other in car crash; 8.7 %

Pedestrian, no car 4.1 %

Cyclist, no car 4.3 %

Other, no car17.3 %

KSI in Norway (2010-2014)

Vulnerable road user warning with AEB

LDW

ACC+FCW+AEB

ISAAlcolockDrug-lock

ACC with forward collision warning (FCW) and automatic emergency brake (AEB)Definition

‒ ACC regulates speed and headway (can be turned off)‒ FCW warns, AEB brakes – Wide range of different systems‒ “High speed”

Effect on KSI‒ Affects rear-end collisions and most other collisions with motor vehicles‒ Spare part calls, insurance claims, field/simulator studies, crash statistics‒ Highly inconsistent findings‒ Assumed -5.3 % KSI in passenger cars

!!!

Vulnerable road user warning with AEB

Definition‒ Basic: Detects pedestrians in front of the car, AEB brakes‒ Medium: … + cyclists‒ Advanced: … + blind spot warning

Effect on KSI‒ Field/simulator studies, crash statistics: Pedestrian/cyclist – car collisions ‒ Basic: -7 % KSI pedestrians in pedestrian-car crashes‒ Medium: -7 % KSI pedestrians, -7 % KSI cyclists….‒ Advanced: -7 % KSI pedestrians, -8 % KSI cyclists….

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Lane departure warning (LDW) / Autonomous lane keepingDefinition

‒ LDW: Warns the driver‒ Autonomous lane keeping: Keeps the lane (in specific situations)

Effect on KSI‒ Crash studies, field/simulator studies, crash statistics‒ LDW: -6.4 % KSI in passenger cars‒ Autonomous lane keeping: -15.8 % KSI in passenger cars

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Intelligent speed adaptation (ISA)

Definition‒ Informative: Warns the driver‒ Overridable: Counterforce on the accelerator pedal‒ Mandatory: Non-overridable

Effect on KSI‒ ISA affects speed – Speed affects KSI‒ Informative: -7.5 %; Overridable: -9.3 %; Mandatory: -16.2 % KSI in crashes

with passenger car‒ Involuntary drivers speed more + are less inclined to comply

Too fast!

Alcohol ignition interlock / drug ignition interlockDefinition

‒ Alcolock: Prevents drunk driver from starting the engine‒ Drug ignition interlock: … driver under the influence of drugs ….

Effect on KSI‒ Alcohol/drugs – crash risk‒ Alcolock: -11.1 % KSI in crashes with passenger car‒ Drug ign. interlock: -14.6 % KSI in crashes with passenger car‒ Max effect for most involuntary drivers‒ More drunk/drug driving in older cars

Uptake of driver assistance systems: Delphi survey First round

‒ N = 51‒ 60% Norway; 30% Sweden‒ 65% research; 24% administration; 6% car manufacturers‒ Proportions of new cars with measure X? Mandatory?

Second round with feedback‒ …

Delphi-estimated penetration rates - voluntary80 %78 %

70 %66 %

54 %

47 %

30 %

22 %16 %

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

2015 (TØI) 2015 2020 2025 2030

ACC with FCW+AEB

LDW

ISA-informative

Ped.-AEB

Auto. lane keeping

Ped.+cyc.+blindspot-AEB

Alcolock

Drug ign. interlock

ISA-mandatory

Delphi-estimated years in which systems become mandatory

20332031 2030 2029 2029 2029 2028 2027 2027

20152017201920212023202520272029203120332035

0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

Mandatory in X years

Mandatory? Yes

Delphi-estimated penetration rates - by law100 %

22 %16 %

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

2015 (TØI) 2015 2020 2025 2030

ACC with FCW+AEB

LDW

ISA-informative

Ped.-AEB

Auto. lane keeping

Ped.+cyc.+blindspot-AEB

Alcolock

Drug ign. interlock

ISA-mandatory

Effects on KSI of increased deployment - light-1.7 %

-0.3 %

-2.0 %

-1.5 %

-1.2 %

-4.6 %

-1.9 %

-0.4 %

-2.4 %

-1.5 %

-1.9 %

-5.6 %

-3.6 %

-0.7 %

-4.4 %

-6.1 %

-10.5 %

-19.7 %

-3.7 %

-0.7 %

-4.5 %

-7.5 %

-11.1 %

-21.5 %

-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%

ACC with FCW+AEB

Ped. AEB

LDW

ISA-info.

Alcolock

All "light"

2030: Delphi- voluntary

2030: Delphi- by law

2030: 100% ofnew carsfrom 2016All

Effects on KSI of increased deployment - advanced-1.7 %

-0.3 %

-3.6 %

-1.6 %

-1.4 %

-8.5 %

-1.9 %

-0.5 %

-4.3 %

-1.6 %

-2.2 %

-10.0 %

-3.6 %

-1.1 %

-10.3 %

-13.7 %

-13.8 %

-36.8 %

-3.7 %

-1.2 %

-15.3 %

-16.2 %

-25.7 %

-48.9 %

-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%

ACC with FCW+AEB

Ped./cyc. AEB

LDW+Aut.LK

ISA-info./mand.

Alco-/Druglock

All "advanced"

2030: Delphi- voluntary

2030: Delphi- by law

2030: 100% ofnew carsfrom 2016All

Crap!