Policy-opinion responsiveness and performance politics: evidence from
the UK
Will JenningsESRC Research Fellow
University of Manchester
Outline
• Models and measurement of policy-opinion responsiveness.
• Some evidence from the UK:– Macro-Politics: the Queen’s Speech 1960-2001
(Jennings and John)– Meso-Politics: the UK asylum system 1994-2007
(Jennings)– Performance-Politics: party support and issue
competence 1971-1997 (Green and Jennings)• Reflections.
Government by the people?
“I assume that a key characteristic of a democracy is the continuing
responsiveness of the government to the preferences of its citizens, considered as
political equals.” (Robert Dahl, 1971)
The policy-opinion link
• Representation (congruence approach)Policy = opinion + elections
• Responsiveness (dynamic approach)Change in policy = change in opinion
• Thermostatic (public responsiveness)Change in opinion = change in policy
Policy representation
• Representation of public opinion by the policy system (i.e. policies represent the preferences of the general public).
• Tested through policy consistency (e.g. Monroe 1998), covariation (e.g. Page and Shapiro 1983), congruence (e.g. Stimson et al. 1995).
Dynamic representation
• Policy is a function of public preferences, either directly through politicians' response to changes in public opinion, or through elections that result in changes in partisan control of the legislature.
• Implies a gradual, continuous equilibration of policy and public opinion (e.g. Stimson et al 1995; Wlezien 1995; Soroka and Wlezien 2005).
The Public Thermostat
“The representation of public opinion presupposes that the public actually notices
and responds to what policy makers do. Without such responsiveness, policy makers would have little incentive to represent what
the public wants in policy – there would be no real benefit for doing so, and there would be
no real cost for not doing so.” (Soroka and Wlezien 2005)
Evidence 1: The Queen’s Speech
• The UK Policy Agendas Project: policy content coding system, 19 major topics, 225 sub-topics.
• Text of the Queen’s Speech, 1960-2001, blind-coded at the ‘quasi-sentence’ level.
• Gallup’s survey question about the “most important problem” facing the country.
Table 1. The Policy Agendas Coding System1. Macroeconomics 13. Social Welfare
2. Civil Rights, Minorities (*Immigration) & Civil Liberties
14. Community Development & Housing Issues
3. Health 15. Banking, Finance & Domestic Commerce
4. Agriculture 16. Defence
5. Labour & Employment* 17. Space, Science, Technology & Communications
6. Education 18. Foreign Trade
7. Environment 19. International Affairs & Foreign Aid
8. Energy 20. Government Operations
10. Transportation 21. Public Lands & Water Management (Territorial Issues)
12. Law, Crime, and Family Issues
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.1
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Mos
t Im
port
ant P
robl
em
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
Queen's Speech
Queen's Speech (Law & Order)
MIP (Law & Order)
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Mos
t Im
port
ant P
robl
em
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.2
Queen's Speech
Queen's Speech (Econ) MIP
(Econ)
Error-correction model
ΔPOLICYt = α0* + α*
1POLICYt-1 + β0*ΔOPINIONt
+ β*1OPINIONt-1 + PARTYt + εt
Lag of policy
Short-run effect of public opinion
Long-run effect of public opinion
Difference in policy between
political parties
Short-run change in policy
Results
• Policy-opinion responsiveness is found to be significant for: macroeconomic issues, education, health, and law and order.
• Note that these are policy topics with the highest average level of public attention.
• There is also a partisan difference in the average level of policy-making attention (i.e. difference between Con and Lab).
Evidence 2: The UK asylum system
• Home Office data on the rate of decision-processing and the number of applications for asylum, 1994-2007.
• Ipsos-MORI data on public concern about the ‘most important issue facing Britain today’.
• Vector error-correction models of quarterly data. Significant relationship for the level of asylum applications and public opinion.
-1.25
-0.75
-0.25
0.25
0.75
1.25
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Ap
plic
atio
ns
for
Asy
lum
-1.25
-0.75
-0.25
0.25
0.75
1.25 Preferen
ce for "M
ore" o
r "Less"
Evidence 3: performance politics?
• What is the relationship between party support and issue competence?
• Gallup data on voting intentions, 1971 to 1997, and public rating of the “best party to handle the most important problem”.
• Tests for ‘Granger causation’ of party support > issue competence, and issue competence > party support.
Issue Competence and Vote:Incumbents
Con19711974
Lab19741979
Lib19741979
Con19791983
Con19831987
Con 19871992
Con19921997
Vote
Competence
No No Yes * No No No No
Competence
Vote
NoYes
*Yes***
Yes *
Yes**
NoYes***
Issue Competence and Vote: Challengers
Lab19711974
Lib19711974
Con19741979
Lab 19791983
Lib19791983
Lab19831987
Lib19831987
Lab19871992
Lib19871992
Lab19921997
Lib 19921997
Competence
Vote
No No No No No No No No Yes * No No
Vote
Competence
Yes *Yes **
Yes * Yes * Yes * No No No No NoYes
*
Reflections
• There is evidence of a policy-opinion link at the macro level in British politics. This is not comprehensive, however.
• There is also evidence of responsiveness from specific policy domains.
• Last, public perceptions about performance matter. In other words, there is – statistically at least – a transmission mechanism between issue competence and support of incumbents.
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