ERSTE GROUPBANK AG
OE 0196 0337 page 1 November 17-18, 2008
„Labour Mobility within the EU: Causes, Directions and Constraints“
Rainer MünzErste Group Bank AG, Head of Research & Development
Conference on European Economic Integration 2008 (CEEI) Vienna, November 17-18, 2008
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page 2 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz
Past and PresentTrends
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page 3 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz Quelle: UN Population Division 2000; Darstellung: Humboldt-Universität Berlin
.
-2 to 00 to +2+2 to +5
below -5-5 to -2
over +5
Net Migration in Europe, 1950-1960 (annual rate per 1000 inhabitants)
Source: Eurostat, UN
ERSTE GROUPBANK AG
page 4 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz Quelle: UN Population Division 2000; Darstellung: Humboldt-Universität Berlin
.
-2 to 00 to +2+2 to +5
below -5-5 to -2
over +5
Net Migration in Europe, 1960-1970 (annual rate per 1000 inhabitants)
Source: Eurostat, UN
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page 5 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz Quelle: UN Population Division 2000; Darstellung: Humboldt-Universität Berlin
.
-2 to 00 to +2+2 to +5
below -5-5 to -2
over +5
Net Migration in Europe, 1970-1980 (annual rate per 1000 inhabitants)
Source: Eurostat, UN
ERSTE GROUPBANK AG
page 6 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz Quelle: UN Population Division 2000; Darstellung: Humboldt-Universität Berlin
.
-2 to 00 to +2+2 to +5
below -5-5 to -2
over +5
Net Migration in Europe, 1980-1990 (annual rate per 1000 inhabitants)
Source: Eurostat, UN
ERSTE GROUPBANK AG
page 7 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz Quelle: UN Population Division 2000; Darstellung: Humboldt-Universität Berlin
.
-2 to 00 to +2+2 to +5
below -5-5 to -2
over +5
Net Migration in Europe, 1990-2000 (annual rate per 1000 inhabitants)
Source: Eurostat, UN
ERSTE GROUPBANK AG
page 8 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz Quelle: UN Population Division 2000; Darstellung: Humboldt-Universität Berlin
.
-2 to 00 to +2+2 to +5
below -5-5 to -2
over +5
Net Migration in Europe, 2000-2007 (annual rate per 1000 inhabitants)
Source: Eurostat, UN
ERSTE GROUPBANK AG
page 9 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz Quelle: UN Population Division 2000; Darstellung: Humboldt-Universität Berlin
Net Migration in Europe, proj. 2008-2020 (annual rate per 1000 inhabitants)
.
-2 to 00 to +2+2 to +5
below -5-5 to -2
over +5
Source: Eurostat, UN
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page 10 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz
Main Drivers
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page 11 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz
Main drivers of intra-EU labor mobility
Imbalances
− Wages− Employment opportunities
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page 12 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz
Regional GDP per capita at PPP, 2005
below 1000010000 - 1500015000 - 2000020000 - 2500025000 - 30000above 30000
Source: European Commission
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page 13 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz
below 6565 - 7070 - 7272 - 7474 - 76above 76
Regional GDP per capita at PPP, 2005
Source: European Commission
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page 14 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz
Main drivers of intra-EU labor mobility
Pro-active recruitment policies; for example:
− during the 1960s and 1970s in most parts of North-Western Europe
− since the mid-1990s in the UK and Ireland
− more general, for agricultural labor
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page 15 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz
Main drivers of intra-EU labor mobility
Path dependency and cultural proximity:
− Past migration trends – to a certain extent – determine current trends
− Cultural and linguistic proximity plays a role
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page 16 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz
Main drivers of intra-EU labor mobility
Framework
− freedom of settlement within EU 27− access to labor markets within EU 27
(partly restricted for citizens of EU 10 countries)
ERSTE GROUPBANK AG
page 17 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz Quelle: UN Population Division 2000; Darstellung: Humboldt-Universität Berlin
European migration regime by citizenship / country of origin and destination country
.
über -2 bis 0über 0 bis +2über +2 bis +5
EU 2 citizens
free access for EU 10 and partly for EU 2
EU 10 citizenstransitional regime with exceptions
liberalized regime EEA+CH
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page 18 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz
Current Situation:Country Details
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page 19 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz
Countries with strong increase of intra-EU migrants
Italy
0 5 10 15 20
RomaniaAlbania
MoroccoPoland
ChinaBrazil
MoldovaUkraine
United S tatesIndia
0 5 10 15 20
Spain
0 5 10 15 20
RomaniaBolivia
MoroccoUnited Kingdom
BrazilColombiaArgentina
PeruPortugalBulgaria
0 5 10 15 20
Source: OECD
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page 20 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz
Countries with strong increase of intra-EU migrants
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Austria
0 5 10 15 20
GermanySerbia and Montenegro
PolandTurkey
RomaniaHungary
Slovak Republic
CroatiaItaly
0 5 10 15 20
Germany
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
PolandTurkey
RomaniaHungary
ItalyRussian Federation
United StatesChina
FranceSlovak Republic
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Source: OECD
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page 21 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz
Countries with strong increase of intra-EU migrants
Netherlands
0 5 10 15
GermanyPoland
United KingdomUnited States
ChinaTurkey
IndiaFrance
MoroccoBelgium
0 5 10 15
Belgium
0 5 10 15 20
France
Netherlands
Morocco
Poland
Germany
Romania
Turkey
Italy
United States
Portugal
0 5 10 15 20Source: OECD
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page 22 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz
Countries with increase of migrants from the neighbourhood
Denmark (2005)
0 5 10 15
GermanyPoland
NorwayChina
Iceland
Sweden
UkraineUnited Kingdom
United States
Lithuania
0 5 10 15
Sweden
0 5 10 15
IraqPoland
DenmarkSerbia and Montenegro
SomaliaGermany
FinlandNorway
ThailandIran
0 5 10 155 10
Source: OECD
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France
0 5 10 15 20
Algeria
Morocco
Turkey
Tunisia
CameroonChina
Congo
Côte d'Ivoire
Mali
Haiti
0 5 10 15 20
Switzerland
0 5 10 15 20 25
GermanyPortugal
FranceItaly
Serbia and MontenegroUnited Kingdom
United StatesTurkeyAustria
Spain
0 5 10 15 20 25
Countries with increase of migrants from the neighbourhood
Source: OECD
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page 24 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz
Poland
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
UkraineGermany
BelarusRuss ian Federation
Viet NamArmenia
United S tatesIndia
TurkeyBulgaria
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Hungary
0 10 20 30 40 50
RomaniaUkraine
ChinaGermany
Serbia and MontenegroSlovak Republic
Aus triaViet Nam
IsraelUnited States
0 10 20 30 40 50
Countries with increase of migrants from the neighbourhood
Source: OECD
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page 25 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz
Slovakia
0 5 10 15 20
Czech RepublicPolandUkraine
GermanySerbia and Montenegro
ChinaHungary
KoreaViet Nam
Austria
0 5 10 15 20
Czech Republic
0 10 20 30 40 50
Ukraine
Slovak Republic
Viet Nam
Russian Federation
Moldova
United S tates
Mongolia
China
Poland
Bulgaria
0 10 20 30 40 50
Slovakia
Countries with increase of migrants from the neighbourhood
Source: OECD
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page 26 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz
Current Situation:Overview
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page 27 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz
Major sending countries in Europe
Since 2000− Romania− Bulgaria− Poland− Estonia, Lithuania− Slovakia− Germany
Outside EU 27/EEA− Ukraine− Moldova
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page 28 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%
CZHULVSI
SKPLEELT
Intra-EU mobility of labor
Estimated size of CE work force working abroad in EU 15, 2006
BGRO
Source: WIIW. Eurostat, OECD
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page 29 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz
Major receiving countries in Europe
Since 2000− Spain− UK− Italy− Germany − Ireland− Austria
Outside EU 27/EEA− Russia− Switzerland
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page 30 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz
Selected Migration Flows in Europe (2006)
Source: Eurostat, National statistics, Berlin Institute
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page 31 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz
Selected Effects
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page 32 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz
EU 12 &15: Total population size 1960-2007 (1960=100)
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
125%
130%
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
EU12 EU15 Source: Eurostat
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page 33 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz
90100110120130140150160170
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Employment GDP
90100110120130140150160170
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Employment GDPEU-10EU-15
Employment and GDP growth in Europe (1995 = 100)
Sou
rce:
wiiw
Dat
abas
e
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page 34 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz
Change in employment levels2000-2005 in %
Source: Eurostat, Berlin Institute
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page 35 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz
4
8
12
16
20
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
CZ HU PL SK SI BG RO
Source: wiiw Database, Eurostat
Unemployment rates in CE 2000-2007
LFS, annual average (in %)
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page 36 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz
Employment rates by citizenship2007 in %
Source: LFS, Berlin Institute
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page 37 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz
Workers remittances to selected CE + SEE countries (2007 in € bn)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Romania Serbia Bosnia Her. Bulgaria Croatia Albania
Rem
ittan
ces
in €
bn
Source: World Bank, IMF, MPI
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page 38 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz
Woman per 100 men (2006)
xxxbelow
and more
Source: Eurostat, Berlin Institute
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page 39 CEEINovember 17-18, 200801960337 / R. Münz
Rainer MünzResearch & Development
Erste Group Bank [email protected]
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