Dealing with chance: Good luck

Game Connection Europe 2014marc.pestka@lifeisavidgame.com

Alea is part of the game

• Roger Caillois: Man, Play and Games• Uncertainty is not boring• Equality• Playing with luck is so human• From roulette to chess• Can you learn chance? Is it fun?• Enter the occurrence dimension: repetition

makes the fun and controls chance

Some maths are needed

• Permutations• Mean / Expected value• Standard deviation• Gaussian distribution• Random without replacement (deck structure)• Non-uniformly distributed numbers –

cheating?

Chance in casual games

• Some casual games use chance because the concept is accessible

• Random generation of elements means endless replayability and ‘gameplay’ stories

• Balance between skill and chance: every one can enter the game

Dealing with randomness

• Size of the board = field of possibilities• Amount of colors = one key component.

Readibility, amount of possible matches• On the LD side: build, play, repeat• If you’re lucky: use metrics, optimize through

data analytics• If you’re super lucky, use AI.

Chance in RPG

• Roll a dice = all actions have a chance element• Reducing uncertainty is part of the essence• Random generation = huge content• Loot: reward and diversity• Loot is a long-term motivation in itself, mixed

with collection appeal

Dealing with complex randomness

• Objective: Make the most out of a limited pool• Only picking one in an array is not enough• Organizing the possibilities• Diablo: Treasure Classes

QUESTIONS?

THANKS