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Copyright © 2016 by S&P Global.
All rights reserved.
Global Commodity
Overview
Jodie Gunzberg, CFA
June, 2017
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Commodities May Finally Be Bottoming
2
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. The launch date of the S&P GSCI Crude Oil was May 1, 1991. All information presented prior to the index launch date is back-
tested. Back-tested performance is not actual performance, but is hypothetical. The back-test calculations are based on the same methodology that was in effect when
the index was officially launched. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Please see the Performance Disclosure at http://www.spindices.com/regulatory-
affairs-disclaimers/ for more information regarding the inherent limitations associated with back-tested performance.
Daily data from Jan 2, 1970 through Mar. 31, 2017.
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Commodities Were Positive in 2016
3
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. The launch date of the S&P GSCI Crude Oil was May 1, 1991. All information presented prior to the index launch date is back-
tested. Back-tested performance is not actual performance, but is hypothetical. The back-test calculations are based on the same methodology that was in effect when
the index was officially launched. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Please see the Performance Disclosure at http://www.spindices.com/regulatory-
affairs-disclaimers/ for more information regarding the inherent limitations associated with back-tested performance.
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Inflows Are Greatest Since 2009
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Source: Barclays Research
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THREE REASONS INVESTOR FLOWS LOOK MORE PERSISTENT THIS TIME
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Source: Barclays Research
1. Longer-term investments are growing again. Unlike in previous cycles a critical
mass of asset managers now have experience of commodity risk and the benefits it can
bring to a portfolio. With the overall asset management sector still underexposed to
commodities these inflows should continue, in our view.
2. Gold inflows to continue. Gold comprises half of all investment flows this year.
Uncertainty about the financial sector, sluggish global growth and rising political risks are
likely to support continued flows into the sector.
3. Energy trading opportunities will persist. Trading of energy-linked ETPs is popular
due to huge volatility in oil and gas. Developments in both physical and futures energy
markets suggest that this volatility will persist and that these sectors will continue to
provide attractive trading opportunities.
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Asia’s Commodity Market is Growing Quickly
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25+ Pending Listed Products on Commodities
• Oil (9), Gold (8) and Silver (7) are most popular • 2x Leveraged (10) and Inverse (10) are in high demand • Primarily seeking trading opportunities, hedging,
diversification and inflation protection
Notable Recent First Launches
• April 2016 - Listed 1st commodity futures ETF in Hong Kong with Samsung
on S&P GSCI Crude Oil Excess Return.
• April 2015 – Listed 1st commodity futures ETF in Taiwan (and all of Greater
China) with Yuanta on S&P GSCI Gold Excess Return.
• July 2015 – Listed 1st leveraged commodity ETF in Korea with Korea
Investment Management on S&P WCI Gold 2x Leverage
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TRADING OPPORTUNITIES DEPEND ON TRENDING MARKETS
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• Inverse and 2x leveraged commodity indices perform better in trending markets, but if
the market is choppy then the return magnitude determines gains.
• The most popular commodities used in 2x leveraged and inverse indices for products
are Brent crude, copper, corn, WTI crude oil, gold, natural gas, silver, and soybeans.
• Corn trends most and has relatively large gains to losses making it a strong
candidate for 2x leveraged and inverse strategies
• Natural gas posted the highest percentage of consecutive negative returns and had
high losses in opposite consecutive daily returns, making it a strong inverse
candidate.
• Gold and silver may be good choices for the 2x leveraged indices, based on their
high positive consecutive return rates, even though silver was more choppy than
trending.
Source: http://us.spindices.com/documents/education/talking-points-commodity-trends-boost-leveraged-and-inverse-indices.pdf
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Fundamentals Are Turning Positive
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Source: Barclays Research Source: International Energy Agency. Oil Market Report April 2016.
Oil Demand Surpassing Supply … And Now Balancing With A Projected Deficit
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Low U.S. Inventories Are Necessary For OPEC’s Cuts to Matter
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U.S. Inventories Are Still Historically High
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Oil Demand Growth Slowing but Positive
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Source: International Energy Agency. Oil Market Report May 2016.
International Money Fund’s April 2017 World Economic Outlook cited world economic growth is expected to rise from 3.1% in 2016 to 3.5% in 2017. China’s economic growth was 6.7% in 2016 reduced to 6.6% in 2017.
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Supply Is Overpowering Demand Now
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The U.S. Dollar Impacts Commodities Differently
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Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. March 31, 2017
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Every Commodity Gets Boosted By A Falling U.S. Dollar, But Some Rise With A Rising U.S. Dollar
14 Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. http://www.indexologyblog.com/2016/04/04/every-commodity-benefits-from-a-falling-dollar/
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Rising Rates Generally Help Commodities
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Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices.
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Rising Rates Drive Commodities Differently
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Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices.
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Commodities Correlation To Stocks Is Falling
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Both Crude Oil And Gold May Limit Losses
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Asia has historically bigger up-market capture ratios than down-market capture ratios.
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. Bloomberg. Monthly data from Jan 1994 – Mar 2017, except STI from Aug. 1999.
- See more at: http://www.indexologyblog.com/2016/04/28/why-this-new-way-to-invest-in-oil-in-hong-kong-matters/#sthash.EQ9Jg1Xb.dpuf
XXHSI TWSE STI NKY
S&P
500
S&P GSCI
Gold ER
S&P GSCI
Crude Oil ER
S&P GSCI
Crude Oil
Enhanced ER
S&P GSCI
Gold ER
S&P GSCI
Crude Oil ER
S&P GSCI
Crude Oil
Enhanced ER
HSI Negative -5.4% -3.3% -3.2% -2.3% -1.9% -0.2% -1.3% -0.5% 4.5 24.2 9.7
HSI Positive 5.1% 3.1% 3.0% 1.9% 2.7% 0.8% 1.7% 2.0% 15.0 32.4 39.6
TWSE Negative -2.5% -5.3% -2.1% -1.8% -1.3% 0.3% -1.0% -0.5% -5.34 19.4 9.5
TWSE Positive 3.3% 5.1% 2.4% 1.8% 2.4% 0.4% 1.6% 2.2% 7.49 31.4 42.2
STI Negative -3.5% -3.4% -4.2% -2.5% -2.3% -0.1% -1.6% -1.0% 1.55 38.44 23.94
STI Positive 3.5% 3.1% 3.7% 2.2% 2.4% 1.3% 1.6% 2.2% 34.08 42.53 58.78
NKY Negative -1.9% -2.0% -1.7% -4.7% -1.2% 0.8% -1.2% -0.5% -16.59 24.87 11.00
NKY Positive 2.8% 2.4% 2.0% 4.3% 2.3% 0.0% 1.8% 2.2% -1.09 40.46 50.61
S&P 500 Negative -4.0% -3.2% -3.1% -3.2% -3.5% 0.4% -1.1% -0.5% -11.19 32.25 12.76
S&P 500 Positive 3.5% 2.5% 2.7% 2.2% 3.3% 0.3% 1.3% 1.8% 9.28 40.78 54.63
UP & DOWN MARKET CAPTURE RATIOS
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COMMODITIES HAVE PROVIDED DIVERSIFICATION DURING HISTORICAL CRISES
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• Commodities provided diversification
during a political crisis
− Persian Gulf War
• Commodities provided diversification
during a financial crisis
− Black Monday
S&P GSCI VS. S&P 500
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jun '90 Jul '90 Aug '90 Oct '90 Nov '90 Dec '90 Feb '91 Mar '91
Gro
wth
of 100 D
olla
rs
S&P GSCI S&P 500
S&P GSCI VS. S&P 500
60
70
80
90
100
110
Sep '87 Oct '87 Oct '87 Oct '87 Oct '87 Oct '87 Oct '87
Gro
wth
of 100 D
olla
rs
S&P GSCI S&P 500
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and Bloomberg. S&P 500 and S&P GSCI represent Stocks and Commodities,
respectively. Charts and graphs are provided for illustrative purposes only. Indices are unmanaged statistical composites
and their returns do not include payment of any sales charges or fees an investor would pay to purchase the securities the
index represents. Such costs would lower performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is
not an indication of future results.
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S&P GSCI Crude Oil Has Provided Inflation Protection
Using monthly year-over-year data since 1987: • S&P GSCI Crude Oil has an inflation beta of 13.8 • S&P 500 has an inflation beta of 1.5 • Hang Seng Index has an inflation beta of 5.8 • Excess return of oil over the Hong Kong CPI is
7.2%, which is about the same as the excess return of their stock market but almost double the excess return from the S&P 500.
• Inflation in China is expected to pick up to 2.1% this year and to 3% over the medium term as slack in the industrial sector and downward pressure on goods prices diminish. -International
Monetary Fund | October 2016
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Source: http://www.indexologyblog.com/2016/04/28/why-this-new-way-to-invest-in-
oil-in-hong-kong-matters/#sthash.EQ9Jg1Xb.dpuf Source: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/pdf/c1.pdf
2 In Japan, the increase in inflation in 2014 reflects, to a large extent, the increase
in the consumption tax.
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Commodity Index Investments May Provide A Levered Response To Inflation
SOURCE: S&P Dow Jones Indices (rolling 12-month calculations)
Inflation beta data are measured by CPI-U as listed on the website: ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/cpiai.txt
R-squared signifies the percentage that inflation explains of the variability in commodity index returns
Inflation beta can be interpreted as: (using DJCI 2000-2017 as an example) A 1% increase in inflation results in 12.3% increase in return of the DJCI during the period from
2000–2017.
Time periods shown reflect first full year of returns for the S&P GSCI (1971), first year crude oil was included in the S&P GSCI (1987), first full year of returns for the DJCI
(2000), 2004 and 2009 are 5-years and 10-years.
The inception date for the S&P GSCI was May 1, 1991, at the market close. The inception date for the DJCI was July 1, 2014. All information presented prior to the index inception
date is back-tested. Please see the Performance Disclosure at the end of this document for more information regarding the inherent limitations associated with back-tested
performance.
S&P acquired the GSCI from Goldman Sachs on February 2, 2007 and it was subsequently renamed the S&P GSCI. Goldman Sachs first began publishing the GSCI
related indices in 1991 but has calculated the historical value of the GSCI beginning January 2, 1970 based on actual prices from that date forward and the selection criteria,
methodology and procedures in effect during the applicable periods of calculation (or, in the case of all calculations periods prior to 1991, based on the selection criteria,
methodology and procedures adopted in 1991. The GSCI has been normalized to a value of 100 on January 2, 1970, in order to permit comparisons of the value of the GSCI
to be made over time.
One dollar of commodities may hedge more than one dollar of the portfolio
from inflation
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Inflation Beta R-squared
S&P GSCI DJCI S&P GSCI DJCI
1971-3/2017 3.4 0.16 1987-3/2017 13.8 0.55 2000-3/2017 16.5 12.3 0.61 0.56 2004-3/2017 15.2 11.9 0.63 0.57 2009-3/2017 16.7 12.7 0.75 0.57
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Unless Prices Are Controlled By The Government
One dollar of commodities may hedge more than one dollar of the portfolio
from inflation GLOBALLY
22
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. Data from Jan 2004 to Jan 2014. Past performance is not an indication of future results. This chart reflects hypothetical historical
performance. Please note that any information prior to the launch of the index is considered hypothetical historical performance (backtesting). Backtested
performance is not actual performance and there are a number of inherent limitations associated with backtested performance, including the fact that backtested
calculations are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight.
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Monthly Commodities Performance
Highlights
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Contact Us
Jodie Gunzberg, CFA
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