Phys.Fundament.GC-2007/08 www.pik-potsdam.de/~stock 02-1
Physical Fundamentals of Global Change ProcessesLecture 02: 16-Oct-07
Historical, Philosophical and Scientifical Fundamentals of GC• Some Essentials of Lecture 1• Historic Milestones of Science and Knowledge
–Renaissance: from the Middle Ages to the Modern Age –Discovery of the Globe and fundamentals of Earth Sciences–The Copernican Revolution–The Age of Enlightment, Reasoning, and Inventions–Example: Photosynthesis
• Towards the 2nd Copernican Revolution
University of Applied Sciences EberswaldeMaster Study Program Global Change Management
Manfred Stock Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Phys.Fundament.GC-2007/08 www.pik-potsdam.de/~stock 02-2
Definition of Global ChangeChanges in the global environment (including alterations in
climate, land productivity, oceans or other water resources, atmospheric chemistry, and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain life. (U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
Example:Global Climate Change Processes (anthropogenic)
1. Anthropogenic use of fossil energy resources 2. Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG)3. Anthropogenic climate change4. Direct impacts of climate change 5. Indirect impacts of climate change6. Environmentally induced climate change (land use)
Phys.Fundament.GC-2007/08 www.pik-potsdam.de/~stock 02-3
Planetary Temperature Control (Homeostasis)Daisy world - Earth System
T
t
Phys.Fundament.GC-2007/08 www.pik-potsdam.de/~stock 02-4
Evolution of Life on Earth
Age [Ga] Major Transitions
• ~ 3.8 Emergence of Life (abiotic to biotic)
•3.5-3.0 Replicating Molecules (genetic code)
•2.8-2.6 Oxygenic Photosynthesis(unrestricted free energy capture)
•2.2-2.0 Great Oxidation (reducing to oxidizing atmosphere)
•1.9-1.2 Prokariotes to Eukcariotes(origin of phagotrophy, from asexual clones to sexual populations)
•1.2-.57 Protists to animals, plants and fungi(cell differentiation)
• 0.56 “Cambrium Explosion”
Phys.Fundament.GC-2007/08 www.pik-potsdam.de/~stock 02-5
CAMBRIAN EXPLOSION• Biological Big Bang 540 million years ago• Most modern animal groups appear
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The Scientific Evolution of Knowledge
catastrophic extinction of dinosaur predominance
10.000 years evolution of predominant human civilization (Holocene)
Phys.Fundament.GC-2007/08 www.pik-potsdam.de/~stock 02-7
How many planets with life might be in the Milky Way?
Drake-Equation:http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/origins/drake.html
Phys.Fundament.GC-2007/08 www.pik-potsdam.de/~stock 02-9
Climate Change: The past 1000 years and this century
Global Change Analysis will show:
A continuation of the present business to use energy will most probably terminate the industrialized civilization on Earth and may even endanger Earth’s capacity to sustain life!
There is an urgent need for sustainable options of Global Change Management to alter the global energy system to ‘renewables’.
Phys.Fundament.GC-2007/08 www.pik-potsdam.de/~stock 02-10
Renaissance: from the Middle Ages to the Modern Age
Phys.Fundament.GC-2007/08 www.pik-potsdam.de/~stock 02-11
Renaissance: from the Middle Ages to the Modern Age
Europe: highly populated, biggest extension of agricultural crop land. The Great Famine of 1315-1317 kills millions of people
Phys.Fundament.GC-2007/08 www.pik-potsdam.de/~stock 02-12
Renaissance: from the Middle Ages to the Modern Age
1342: extreme rainfall in June and July in Central Europe, strongest extreme flood event of the last 2000 years, all bridges lost in Germany, most of agricultural crop land lost due to erosion, famine, 1347-51: Black Death kills about one third of European population
Phys.Fundament.GC-2007/08 www.pik-potsdam.de/~stock 02-13
From “climate optimum“ to the “Little Ice Age”(1550-1850)
Northsea Coastline900 - 2000© Henning Höppner
The Climate Historyof Central Europe1000 Years Weather, Climate, DisastersRüdiger GlaserPrimus, 2001 (German)
1612
Phys.Fundament.GC-2007/08 www.pik-potsdam.de/~stock 02-14
Renaissance: fundamentals of modern philosophy
Thomas Aquinas an Aristotelian and an empiricist.
Fundamentals of Epistemology: the theory of knowledge
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Epistemology: the theory of knowledge(Erkenntnistheorie)
According to Plato (428/427 BC – 348/347 BC), knowledge is a subset of that which is both true and believed (Wikipedia).
Aristotle's (384 BC – 322 BC) "natural philosophy" examines the phenomena of the natural world, including physics, biology and other natural sciences.
Detail of “The School of Athens”by Raffaello Sanzio, 1509, with Plato (left) and Aristotle (right)
Phys.Fundament.GC-2007/08 www.pik-potsdam.de/~stock 02-16
Renaissance: fundamentals of modern philosophy
Thomas Aquinas an Aristotelian and an empiricist.
Fundamentals of Epistemology: the theory of knowledge
William of Ockham a pioneer of nominalism and father of modern epistemology and modern philosophy in general, Summa logicae (Sum of Logic), before 1327.
‘Occam's razor’ states that the explanation of any phenomenon should make as few assumptions as possible.
Phys.Fundament.GC-2007/08 www.pik-potsdam.de/~stock 02-17
Renaissance: discovering the globe
Age of Discovery
1455 Johann Gutenberg: letterpress1492 Martin Behaim: Nürnberg Terrestrial Globe1524 Peter Henlein: first pocket watch1568 Geradus Mercator: projection with parallel lines of longitude to aid navigation by sea (compass courses marked as straight lines).
Map of Fra Mauro, Venice 1459
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World Map 1570 (Abraham Ortelius, Antwerpen)
Phys.Fundament.GC-2007/08 www.pik-potsdam.de/~stock 02-19
Renaissance: discovering the globe
south-oriented map, made by the Arab geographer al-Idrisi in 1154,
Admiral Zheng He sailed from China to many places throughout South Pacific, Indian Ocean, Taiwan, Persian Gulf and distant Africa in seven voyages from 1405 to 1433 , some 80 years before Columbus. His "treasure ship" is four hundred feet long - much larger than Columbus's St. Maria.http://www.tourism-melaka.com/new/tourism/
Phys.Fundament.GC-2007/08 www.pik-potsdam.de/~stock 02-20
Renaissance: The Copernican Revolution
Nicolaus Copernicus, De revolutionibus orbium coelestium (On the Revolutions of the Heavenly Spheres), 1543
The seven parts of Copernicus' theory are:1. There is no one center in the universe 2. The Earth's center is not the center of the universe 3. The center of the universe is near the sun 4. The distance from the Earth to the sun is imperceptible
compared with the distance to the stars 5. The rotation of the Earth accounts for the apparent daily rotation of the
stars 6. The apparent annual cycle of movements of the sun is caused
by the Earth revolving around the sun 7. The apparent retrograde motion of the planets is caused
by the motion of the Earth, from which one observes
Phys.Fundament.GC-2007/08 www.pik-potsdam.de/~stock 02-21
Renaissance: fundamentals of Earth Science
Johannes Kepler, Astronomia Nova (New Astronomy), 1609, andHarmonices Mundi ("Harmony of the Worlds"), 1619, contained the three laws of planetary motion:
1. The orbit of a planet about a star is an ellipsewith the star at one focus.
2. A line joining a planet and its star sweeps out equal areasduring equal intervals of time.
3. The squares of the orbital periods of planets are directlyproportional to the cubes of the semi-major axis of the orbits.
T = orbital period of planeta = semimajor axis of orbit
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1. The orbit of a planet about a star is anellipse with the star at one focus.
2. A line joining a planet and its star sweeps outequal areas during equal intervals of time.
3. The squares of the orbital periods of planetsare directly proportional to the cubes of thesemi-major axis of the orbits.
T = orbital period of planeta = semimajor axis of orbit
Kepler’s three laws of planetary motion (1630)
X
tor2 ∝ ror
3
tor = orbital period of planetror = semimajor axis of orbit
Phys.Fundament.GC-2007/08 www.pik-potsdam.de/~stock 02-23
Renaissance: fundamentals of modern philosophy
Thomas Aquinas an Aristotelian and an empiricist.
Fundamentals of Epistemology: the theory of knowledge
William of Ockham a pioneer of nominalism and father of modern epistemology and modern philosophy in general, Summa logicae (Sum of Logic), before 1327.
‘Occam's razor’ states that the explanation of any phenomenon should make as few assumptions as possible.
Knowledge is power
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The Age of Enlightment
William Harvey, 1578–1657discovery of blood circulation
Phys.Fundament.GC-2007/08 www.pik-potsdam.de/~stock 02-26
Rationalism - Cogito ergo sumRationalismwestern philosophical tradition begins with Eleatics, Pythagoreans, and Plato:Theory of the self-sufficiency of reason, leitmotif of Neoplatonism and Idealism.
Since the Enlightenment, rationalism is usually associated with the introduction of mathematical methods into philosophy, as in Descartes, Leibniz, and Spinoza.
René Descartes, 1596-1650
Cartesius
RefractionReduc(k)tionsm(De homines, 1622)
Scientificapproaches:
REDUCTIONSMand
HOLISM
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The Age of Scientific Enlightment
Isaac Newton (1642-1727) built upon the work of Kepler and Galileo. His development of the calculus opened up new applications of the methods of mathematics to science. He showed that an inverse square law for gravity explained the elliptical orbits of the planets, and advanced the theory of Universal Gravitation. (Philosophiae Naturalis Principia Mathematica, 1678)
Newton believed that scientific theory should be coupled with rigid experimentation.
John Locke: Theory of Property
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The Three Laws of Motion (Newton 1678)Newton's Laws of Motion describe the motion of a body as a whole and are valid for motions relative to a reference frame:
1. An object will stay at rest or move at a constant velocity in a straight line unless acted upon by an unbalanced force.
2. The rate of change of the momentum I of a body is directly proportional to the net force acting on it, and the direction of the change in momentum takes place in the direction of the net force: F = dI/dt
3. To every action (force applied) there is an equal but opposite reaction (equal force applied in the opposite direction).
Phys.Fundament.GC-2007/08 www.pik-potsdam.de/~stock 02-29
Centripetal Motion in the Phase Space R(r,v)
rx
-rxry
-ry vy
-vy
vx
-vx
tor = 2π r / v
vy
-vy-vx
vx
-ay
ay
ax
-ax
tor = 2π v / a
⇒a = v² / rcentripetal acceleration⇒Fc = m v² / rcentripetal force
I
r
m
Using the phase space is a rather elegant and simple method to calculate the centripetal or centrifugal force, compared to the standard method via vector and differential calculus. The phase space is the coordinate system of all variables describing the state of a system.
Phys.Fundament.GC-2007/08 www.pik-potsdam.de/~stock 02-30
Laws of Gravitation and Planetary Motiongravitational force between two bodies of mass m1 and m2separated by the distance r12
FG = - G m1 m2 / r122
G = 6.673 10-11 N m² kg-2
centripetal force accelerating a body of mass m1 and speed v1 on an orbit with radius r12
Fc = m1 v1² / r12
1.task: prove that Keplers 3rd law is a consequence of Newton’s3rd law expressed in the the relation: FG + Fc = 0
2.task: calculate the Earth’s orbital speed, using this relation and theparameters: mE = 5.98 1024 kg, mS =1.988 1030 kg, rES = 1.49 1011 mSolution:
Epot = - FG * rES = G mE mS / rES = 5.3*1033 J = Fc * rES = mE vE² ⇒ vE = 29.8*103 m/s
Phys.Fundament.GC-2007/08 www.pik-potsdam.de/~stock 02-31
Titius-Bode “rule” for planetary distances
30.0639,5038.88Neptune
Pluto1
19.219.67Uranus9.5410.06Saturn5.205.25Jupiter
2.772.84Ceres1
1.521.63Mars1.001.02Earth0.720.71Venus0.390.40Mercury
real av.distance
DTBnPlanet DTB = 0,4 + 0,3 x 2(n-1) x sgn(n) Distances in astronomical units, AU. One AU is the average distance between Earth and Sun, roughly
AU = 149 598 000 km
The rule was proposed in 1766 by Johann Daniel Titius and "published" without attribution in 1772 by the director of the Berlin Observatory, Johann Elert Bode.
There is no solid theoretical explanation of the rule, but it is likely a combination of orbital resonance and shortage of degrees of freedom.
1 dwarf planet68,0077,29Eris1
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The Age of Technical Inventions
James Watt (1736-1819) British inventor and engineer whose improvements to the steam engine (Newcomen 1711) were fundamental to the changes wrought by the Industrial Revolution.
Watt's idea was to separate the condensation system from the cylinder, injecting the cooling water spray in a second cylinder, C, attached to the main one through a valve V'. When the piston had reached the top of the cylinder, the valve V was closed and V' was opened. External atmospheric pressure would then push the steam and piston towards the condenser. Thus the condenser could be kept cold and under less than atmospheric pressure, while the cylinder remained hot.
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The Age of Increasing Scientific Knowledge
Humboldt's quantitative work on botanical geography was foundational to the field of biogeography.
discovery of blood circulation
1676 Antoni van Leeuwenhoek: discovery of bacteria1761 John Harrison: invention of longitude Chronometer1779 Jan Ingenhouse: discovery of photosynthesis1850 Charles Darwin: “The Origin of Species”
Adam Smith: “Wealth of Nations”
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Photosynthesis
6 CO2 + 6 H2O + Elight → C6H12O6 + 6 O2Carbon Dioxide + Water + Light energy → Glucose + Oxygen
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Photosynthesis
6 CO2 + 6 H2O + Elight → C6H12O6 + 6 O2Carbon Dioxide + Water + Light energy → Glucose + Oxygen
Phys.Fundament.GC-2007/08 www.pik-potsdam.de/~stock 02-36
Towards the 2nd Copernican Revolution:GAIM - Global Analysis, Integration, and Modelling
Phys.Fundament.GC-2007/08 www.pik-potsdam.de/~stock 02-37
Earth System Modelling
Franck et al. (2002): Tellus 54B 325.
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels), and are also the material that forms oil shales.
→ Biogeochemical Cycles(long-run processes)
Solar energy→
volcanism
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