Peters & Co2011 North American Oil & Gas Conference Daniel Topolinsky, Executive Vice- President Exploration & ProductionSeptember 13th – 15th, 2011Toronto, ON
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This presentation contains forward-looking statements and forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable securities laws. The use of any of the words "expect", "anticipate", "continue", "estimate", "objective", "ongoing", "may", "will", "project", "should", "believe", "plans", "intends" and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking information or statements. In particular, forward looking statements in this presentation include, but are not limited to production; reserves, resources and gas in place; market conditions; Progress' marketing strategy, including its hedging plans; projected 2011 production exit rate and average production; Progress's future plans and objectives, including, but not limited to, targeted production, reserves inventory and asset base, hedging plans, potential joint ventures and asset sales; potential drilling locations and drilling costs, including potential drilling pods and estimated drilling costs net of royalties; drilling plans for 2011; investment potential for Progress' assets; anticipated production, exploration and development capital, net A&D expenditures, corporate royalties and operating and transportation costs; capital expenditures; effects of price sensitivities on cash flow; estimated tax pools; projected timing of development of Progress's Montney projects; undeveloped land holdings; reserve life index; product mix; business strategy; future development and growth prospects, profile targets and rates; prospects; asset base; tax pools; down-spacing potential; exploration risk; access to capital; future cash flow, value, debt levels and debt to cash flow; capital investment and expenditure programs and the funding thereof; anticipated cash-on-cash yield; net asset value; credit facility; statements with respect to levels of dividends to be paid to shareholders, dividend policy, the timing of payment of such dividends; the effect of the North Montney Joint Venture on the Company's growth strategy; the economic and environmental benefits of the North Montney Joint Venture; the terms of the North Montney Joint Venture framework agreement; the effect of transactions on Progress' development of its unconventional assets and Montney land holdings; the terms of LNG Export Joint Venture; the results of the feasibility study to evaluate the building and operation of an LNG export facility;the effect of LNG Export Joint Venture on British Columbia natural resources and long term local benefits; the terms of standby equity financing commitment; Progress' business strategy, priorities and plans; the focus of capital expenditures, the timing of capital spending and the results therefrom; the focus of the Company's exploration and development efforts; potential capital investment opportunities; expected sources of capital funding;and future demand for natural gas.
The forward-looking statements and information are based on certain key expectations and assumptions made by Progress, including expectations and assumptions concerning prevailing commodity prices and exchange rates, applicable credits, royalty rates and tax laws; the performance of existing wells; the success obtained in drilling new wells; the sufficiency of budgeted capital expenditures in carrying out planned activities; completion of definitive documentation; receipt of all required regulatory approvals; and the availability and cost of labour and services and future operating costs. Although Progress believes that the expectations and assumptions on which such forward-looking statements and information are based are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on the forward looking statements and information because Progress can give no assurance that they will prove to be correct.
Advisory on Future Oriented InformationPage 1
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Since forward-looking statements and information address future events and conditions, by their very nature they involve inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those currently anticipated due to a number of factors and risks. These include, but are not limited to, the risks associated with the oil and gas industry in general such as operational risks in development, exploration and production; delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures; the uncertainty of reserve and resource estimates; the uncertainty of estimates and projections relating to test rates, reserves, resources, production, costs and expenses; health, safety and environmental risks; commodity price and exchange rate fluctuations; marketing and transportation; loss of markets; environmental risks; competition; incorrect assessment of the value of acquisitions; failure to realize the anticipated benefits of acquisitions; ability to access sufficient capital from internal and external sources; the risk that the North Montney Joint Venture or the LNG Export Joint Venture are not completed on the terms described or at all; failure to receive all required regulatory approvals; failure to realize the anticipated benefits of the Transaction or the LNG Joint Venture; and changes in legislation, including but not limited to tax laws, royalties and environmental regulations.
Management has included the above summary of assumptions and risks related to forward-looking information provided in this presentation in order to provide security holders with a more complete perspective on the Company’s future operations in respect of the North Montney Joint Venture and the LNG Export Joint Venture and such information may not be appropriate for other purposes. The Company’s actual results, performance or achievement could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these forward-looking statements and, accordingly, no assurance can be given that any of the events anticipated by the forward-looking statements will transpire or occur, or if any of them do so, what benefits that the Company will derive there from. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing lists of factors are not exhaustive. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of factors is not exhaustive. Additional information on these and other factors that could affect the operations or financial results of Progress are included in reports on file with applicable securities regulatory authorities and may be accessed through the SEDAR website (www.sedar.com). The forward-looking statements and information contained in this press release are made as of the date hereof and Progress undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements or information, whether as a result of new information, future events or
otherwise, unless so required by applicable securities laws.
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Advisory on Future Oriented Information
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TSX: PRQ
Current daily production ~45,000 boe/d
Production split 87% natural gas, 8% NGLs, 5% light oil
Common shares outstanding 229 MM, 234 MM F.D.
Bank debt at June 30, 2011 nil
Convertible debentures $475 Million
Dividend $0.40 per share per year ~3.5% yield
Enterprise value @ September 2011 $3.3 Billion
Directors, Mgmt & Employees 7% of direct, 10% F.D.
Tax pools ~$2.2 Billion
Corporate Overview
5
A New Era of Growth
VISION
Line of sight to double the Company’s production and reserves with an inventory defined today
KEY TAKEAWAYSGrowth Potential
• Reserves/Production/CF/NAV
Tight Gas inventory• Repeatable Plays with top quartile returns
Montney Inventory• Unparalleled opportunity set
Time expenditures to cycles• Be flexible
VancouverVancouverCalgaryCalgary
FoothillsFoothills
Deep BasinDeep Basin
6
The Progress Playbook
Own large, contiguous land blocks – “economies of scale”
Invest in and own infrastructure – “full cycle cost reduction”
Be the low cost operator – “top tier economics”
Standardized operations – “quick to first cash flow”
Practical application of technology - “focused on adding value”
Maintain balance sheet strength – “manage commodity price cycles”
77
Progress’ Montney DevelopmentGrowth Engine for the Future
• Continuing to demonstrate productivity over land base
• Achieving momentum in multiple areas – 8 pods under development
• Economics are in the top tier of North American plays
• Technological advances and cost reductions continue
• Drilling inventory is unparalleled relative to Progress’ size
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FIRST MOVER IN NORTH MONTNEY• ~625,000 net acres in North Montney• Existing land and infrastructure• Access to wellbores for vertical tests• Early recognition of prospectivity
MONTNEY FAIRWAY DEFINED BY:
• Over-pressured and thickest along the Foothills
• Mountainous region with excessive faulting and truncation to the west
North Montney – Progress Stronghold
North MontneyNorth Montney
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Montney Among the best economics in shale
SOURCE Morgan Stanley
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101010
North Montney Town Area DPIIP
• Estimate of Discovered Petroleum Initially in Place (DGIIP) of 27 TCF
• Best estimate Contingent Resource of 8 TCF
• Best estimate Contingent Resource NPV10 of
$6.0B
• Evaluated area represents 22% of Foothills Montney land base
Contingent Resource W.I. Raw BCF
Low Estimate 5.4
Best Estimate 8.1
High Estimate 10.2
Town
Altares (JV)
Lily (JV)
Caribou
Kobes
Kahta (JV)
111111
Town North
Town South
Gundy
• Includes Town North, Town South and Gundy properties
• 34 horizontal and 15 vertical wells drilled over three years
• Both upper and lower Montney included
• Gross thickness of 250-300M
• Progress previously booked 590 BCF of P+P reserves in the area
• Progress holds a further ~760 net sections in the North Montney outside of the evaluated area.
North Montney Town Area DPIIP
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• Total consideration of C$1.07 billion
• North Montney Upstream Joint Venture
• Total consideration of C$1.07 billion
• North Montney Upstream Joint Venture
• LNG Export Joint Venture
• Standby Equity Financing
• LNG Export Joint Venture
• Standby Equity Financing
Progress Enters Strategic Partnership with PETRONAS – Transaction closed August 2nd
British Columbia
British Columbia AlbertaAlberta
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• PETRONAS acquires 50% of Progress’ interest •Altares•Lily•Kahta
• JV Comprises 149,910 gross working interest acres• ~20% of Progress North Montney lands (gross)• ~10% of Progress North Montney lands (net)
• Cash payment of $267.5MM received
• A capital carry of $802.5MM over the next 5 years•Unspent capital carry paid out in 5th year
•Capital investment to exceed $2B on JV lands over the 5 year period
• PETRONAS acquires 50% of Progress’ interest •Altares•Lily•Kahta
• JV Comprises 149,910 gross working interest acres• ~20% of Progress North Montney lands (gross)• ~10% of Progress North Montney lands (net)
• Cash payment of $267.5MM received
• A capital carry of $802.5MM over the next 5 years•Unspent capital carry paid out in 5th year
•Capital investment to exceed $2B on JV lands over the 5 year period
North Montney Upstream Joint Venture
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Joint Venture Attributes
• Provides immediate and ongoing funding for our growth strategy
• Provides the long term capital required to develop the North Montney
• Validates the North Montney as a globally competitive asset
• Places a market value on our remaining Montney land position
• Accesses valuable global LNG expertise and develops new markets
• Long-term economic benefits for communities and resource owners
1515
Managing Cost Inflation
Long term relationships with service companies• Working together through the best and worst times
Load levelled program• Maintain an active program
Continuous improvement• Consistently optimizing processes
Consistent, repeatable model for facilities design and construction• Development pod system
Minimizing our footprint• Centralized frac water recycling
1616
Managing Cost Inflation – Progress Initiatives
Development Pod SystemInvolves ~80 drilling locations on ~20 sections
of land with a 50 MMcf/d centralized facility
Advantages
• Economies of scale
• Focus efforts in concentrated areas
• Employ modular design to reduce costs
• Standardize across areas
Town South Development Pod
Full Drillout Case
~20 sections, ~80 locations)
Producing hzlsProducing hzls2011 wells2011 wells
Future wellsFuture wells
1717
Town South Central Frac Water Facility• Water sourced from area wells, run off and
recycled frac water
• Storage of enough water for 50 fracs
• Pipeline transports water to and from well pads
• Savings of ~$250k per well
Managing Cost Inflation – Progress Initiatives
Peters & Co2011 North American Oil & Gas Conference Daniel Topolinsky, Executive Vice- President Exploration & ProductionSeptember 13th – 15th, 2011Toronto, ON
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