Pay Now or Pay Later?Investing in Education
Emer Smyth and Selina McCoy
TUI National Symposium ‘Investing in Education’
17 October 2009
Outline of presentation
1. Educational expenditure
2. Overview of educational inequality
3. Consequences and costs of early
school leaving
4. Educational policy in relation to
disadvantage
5. Current policy climate
Educational expenditure
Expenditure on education increased over the period 1992-2007 but:
More is spent per capita on third-level than on earlier stages
Ireland still falls behind average spending levels in EU 19 and OECD countries
Educational inequality in Ireland
Unequal outcomes at every stage of the
educational career
A child’s social background matters to: Their reading and mathematics performance at
primary level
The grades they achieve in the JC exam
Whether they stay on in school for the LC
The grades they achieve in the LC
Whether they go on to third-level education
Primary reading scores and mother’s education
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
NQ JC LC PLC Degree Postgrad
1st class
5th class
Source: Educational Research Centre, 2005.
Leaving Certificate completion by social class
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
%
Higher prof. Lower prof. Non-manual Farmer Skilled manual Semi-skilledmanual
Unskilledmanual
Source: School Leavers’ Survey.
Consequences of early leaving
Early school leaving has striking effects on a range of adult outcomes
Early leavers are more likely to be unemployed and, if unemployed, to be employed for a longer period
Unemployment rate (2008)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
%
20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64
Early leaversLC+
Source: Quarterly National Household Survey.
Unemployment rate 15-64 year olds (April-June 2009)
0
5
10
15
20
25
%
Male Female
Early leaversLC+
Source: Quarterly National Household Survey.
Employment
Early leavers are more likely to work in less skilled jobs
They receive lower average pay, resulting in a significant life-time gap in earnings
Lone motherhood
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
%
20-24 25-34 35-44
Early leaversLC+
Source: Quarterly National Household Survey.
Health outcomes
Early leavers are more likely be in poor/fair rather than good health
Higher rates of anxiety/depression Higher rates of smoking and heavy
drinking Greater dependency on medical
card
Broader social outcomes
Vast majority of those in prison are
early leavers
In 2002, committal rate of 46.6 per
1,000 early leavers v. 1.6 for LC+
Consequences for educational
outcomes among the next generation
Costs for society of early leaving
Welfare payments for unemployed and lone parents
Income tax foregone for those not in employment
Health: Utilisation of health services Crime: Cost of imprisonment
(€92,717 p.a. in 2008)
Educational policy
Focus on targeted provision for schools with a concentration of children from disadvantaged backgrounds (DEIS)
New ESRI evidence shows that DEIS schools do indeed have a high concentration of disadvantaged students
Students with difficulties (>25%): Primary schools
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
%
Literacy Numeracy Emotional/ behavioural Absenteeism
Urban 1 Urban 2 Rural Non-DEIS
Source: ESRI Survey of Diversity.
Students with difficulties (>25%): Second-level schools
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
%
Literacy Numeracy Emotional/ behavioural Absenteeism
DEIS Non-DEIS
Source: ESRI Survey of Diversity.
Profile of DEIS schools Less likely to be over-subscribed Higher concentration of newcomer
(immigrant) and Traveller students Second-level: higher % of students
with learning or physical disabilities School climate: behaviour and
engagement of students; involvement of parents
But not all disadvantaged children are in DEIS (second-level) schools
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Semi/ unskilled Nonemployed
DEISNon-DEIS
Source: School Leavers’ Survey.
Perception of DEIS scheme
DEIS principals broadly positive about the scheme and School Completion Programme
Class size reductions Resources and planning for
literacy/numeracy Provision of meals within school Capacity to promote parental involvement But issues raised by principals and
stakeholders in relation to policy more generally
Issues for policy: Early intervention Gap on entry to school
“Children start off behind others, way behind the starting line, children who present at school significantly behind their peers … Basically they’re playing catch-up from then on.”
Can DEIS schools ‘close this gap’? Importance of preschool education
(potential of the new ECCE scheme)
Issues for policy: Targeting Targeting disadvantaged schools alone
is not enough – not all disadvantaged children are in DEIS schools
Reported difficulty among principals in providing information for targeting
“There is anecdotal evidence that ... the idea is you talk up your school, or talk down your school. If you’re being truly honest about your school, that can put you at a disadvantage … Schools can lose out if you’re being too honest.”
Issues for Policy: Fragmentation
Schools do not exist in isolation – need for joined-up policy across education, health and welfare services
“You can’t treat the child in isolation. …We would be able to pinpoint at four years of age children who are at risk for a number of reasons, it could be speech and language, it could be more emotional, or lack of emotional, development. And I don’t think as a society that we are providing those services. … We’re being reactive rather than proactive.”
Issues for Policy: What Can Schools Do?
Important to note that schools can make a difference to educational retention:
1. Positive school climate2. Positive disciplinary climate3. More active learning approaches4. Mixed ability grouping
Changes post-Budget 2008 Huge potential of new preschool
scheme ‘Ring-fencing’ of DEIS schools But potential impact of some
measures on DEIS schools Likely impact on disadvantaged
children in non-DEIS schools: book grants; grants for specific groups; programme grants; SEN students
Recent changes: On the ground”I think it’s the start of chipping away and dismantling a lot of the foundations for the weaker students in the system.”
“School has to be more than books, school has to be an experience for children and the sports and the games and the extra-curricular – that’s what has made our education system good. There was an emotional reaction almost to the Budget, they could see all of this being pulled … All of that qualitative enrichment of the curriculum, these things aren’t trips, they are enrichment of the curriculum. They are going and they are gone.”
The current climate Recession will impact more on
disadvantaged families McCarthy report raises likelihood of
further cuts in education spending Suggested measures will impact on
disadvantaged groups – student/teacher ratios, specialist staff, capitation fees
But no cost-benefit analysis of these measures even though educational investment is found to have long-term benefits
Final words: Pay now or pay later?
“Educational equity is a moral imperative for a society in which education is a crucial determinant of life chances.” (Henry Levin, US, 2009)
“We’re losing huge potential here.” (DEIS school principal, 2009)
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