Overview of
Databases(TRAINS, IDB, CTS,COMTRADE)
operated by
UNCTAD-World Bank World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS)
Overview of
Databases(TRAINS, IDB, CTS,COMTRADE)
operated by
UNCTAD-World Bank World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS)
Lucian CernatInternational Trade Division
WITS vs Databases
WITS is a software which is designed to integrate several trade-related databases and provide easy access
Four major databases are currently accessible through WITS
Databases of WITS
• TRAINS (UNCTAD)
• COMTRADE (UN Statistics Division)
• Integrated Database (IDB-WTO)
• Consolidated Tariff Schedule (CTS-WTO)
Data Accessibility
• COMTRADE: Free access to International Organizations, others against a fee
• TRAINS: Access to governments and international and regional organizations, as well as to donors to TRAINS Trust Fund
• WTO: Access to WTO member governments and selected international organizations
Data contents of TRAINS (as of 1 April 2007)
Data contents of TRAINS (as of 1 April 2007)
• Tariff measures at national tariff line level for 161 countries (956 country/years since 1988), including preferential rates such as RTA and GSP in many cases
Primary data are drawn from
UN TARMACUN Tariff and Market Access Database
A joint effort with the International Trade Centre (ITC)
Data contents of TRAINS (continued)Data contents of TRAINS (continued)
• Import statistics by origin at Harmonized System (HS) 6-digit level for every country-year by constructing mirror imports where necessary
• Non-Tariff Measures classified according to UNCTAD Coding System of Trade Control Measures (97 countries, 150 country/years)
WITS Functionality
• Data retrieval and analysis
• Quick query• Advanced query• Tariff Change Simulations• Other options
Quick Query
Direct access to the Database
–By country and/or by product–Export raw data–Extraction by criteria
Advanced Query
Users construct queries comprising of:
– Reporter countries – Products – Partner countries – Years
Custom Query – Parameters
Reporter Countries– Individual countries or user-
defined groups of countriesProducts– Individual products or user-
defined aggregates of products in various product classifications (HS, SITC,ISIC, etc)
Custom Query – Parameters
Partner Countries– Same as Reporter Countries.
“World” is treated as an individual country
Years – From 1988
Custom Query – submission
Further options before submitting
• MFN rates (default) , Bound Rates and/or Effectively Applied (preferential) rates
• Latest available year for each reporter country
• Substitution of unavailable year with the nearest available year
• Breakdown of country groups
Custom Query – results
Main indicators•Simple and trade weighted tariff averages
•Value of imports–Duty free–Dutiable–Non-ad valorem rates
•Distribution of tariff rates
TRADE : ADVANCED QUERIES• The Advanced Query is a more complex but more powerful
and flexible tool for sophisticated queries :– Can retrieve trade for several years, partners and products with a
single query;
– Can retrieve aggregated trade for groups of countries or products;
• The process goes through two steps :– The user defines, saves and submits his query
– The server runs the query and notifies when results are ready.
Once the Data Source has been selected, a set of folders appears on the top left side of the Query Definition window.Those folders may vary depending on the chosen data source.
Now, click on the Products folder. The product selection panel appears.Advanced Query offers many possibilities for selecting Products.To get results, you have to use nomenclatures available for the selected reporter(s).
Selecting Partners
Now, click on the Partner Countries folder. The selection panel appears. It is the same as the one we’ve seen for selecting Reporters.
• Question:
– Investigate the existence of tariff peaks and tariff escalation in country group A (USA, Canada, EU and Japan) on silk products originating in developing countries
• Steps:
– Create country aggregates (group A, developing countries)– Create product aggregates (raw, semi finished, finished silk)
Go to WITS Tariff peaks Tariff escalation
Hypothetical Example: Tariff peaks and escalation
Dom
estic
pea
ks
Inte
rnat
iona
l pea
ks
Dom
estic
pea
ks
Inte
rnat
iona
l pea
ks
Dom
estic
pea
ks
Inte
rnat
iona
l pea
ks
Dom
estic
pea
ks
Inte
rnat
iona
l pea
ks
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Nu
mb
er o
f ta
riff
pea
ks
Raw
Yarn
Woven
Finished
Incidence of Tariff Peaks
1996
2000
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Raw silk - PrefRaw silk - MFNSilk Yarn - PrefSilk yarn - MFNWoven silk - PrefWoven silk - MFNFinished Silk - PrefFinished Silk - MFN
Raw silk Silk yarnWoven
silk
Finished silk
Silk Escalation (Weighted Average Tariffs)
• Part I : Trade statistics– Data extraction tools– Example: tariff peaks and escalation
•Part II: Trade liberalization simulations
– The model: assumptions, parameters, results– Example
Contents
Tariff Change Simulation(Single market simulation model)
- Trade Creation and Diversion effects- Tariff revenue effect- Welfare effect- Importer and Exporter Views
Assumptions:
– Each product is independent– A same product from different supplier is
an imperfect substitute– Three sets of elasticties (Demand,
Supply and Substitution between two suppliers)
Tariff Change Simulation(Single market simulation model)
Tariff Change Simulation
Results of Simulation - First round effect of tariff reduction- No time horizon - No cost of structural adjustment
Assumptions
– Changes in the demand for imports, as a result of tariff changes
– Changes in relative prices among exporters and a change in market shares
– Changes in the export supply as a result of tariff/price changes
Parameters– Import demand elasticities – literature review– Export supply elasticities – infinite, but this can be changed– Elasticities of substitution - Armington
For a detailed description of the SMART model:
Laird and Yeats (1986), Karsenty and Vossenaar (1989)
Main Assumptions and Parameters
• Trade creation (TC)– Increased exports as a results of changes in demand and prices
• Trade diversion (TD)– Substitution of goods from different exporters(changes in
market shares), due to changes in relative prices• Total trade effect = TC + TD• Other effects
– Tariff revenue changes, welfare effects, consumer surplus, price effects (if any)
Go to WITS
Main Results
• Changes in bound tariffs take effect only when the new bound rate is lower than the old applied rate
• Tariff cutting options• Maximum rate• Linear cut• Swiss formula• Canadian formula• User-defined formula
Simulations
• Modified Swiss formula (Francois and Martin)
• A band approach to maximum rate or linear cut
• An SDT approach
• A sectoral approach
Other options
New rate = (old rate x p)/(old rate + p)
Swiss formula (p=16)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Old Rate (%)
Ne
w R
ate
(%
)
Swiss Formula
if (r0<=5) Then r1=0
if (r0>100) then r1=100
if (r0>5 and r0<100) Then r1 = (r0*25)/(r0+25)
User defined modalities
• Example: 20% MFN bound tariff reduction in the US
• Total trade effect: market share analysis
Economist Toolkit Example
Market share analysis
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Alb
ania
Antig
ua a
nd B
arb
uda
Austr
alia
Bahra
inB
ela
rus
Benin
Boliv
iaB
razil
Bru
nei
Buru
ndi
Canada
Centr
al A
fric
an
Christm
as Isla
nd
Cook Isla
nds
Cro
atia
Denm
ark
Ecuador
Eritr
ea
Faero
e Isla
nds
Fra
nce
Georg
iaG
ibra
ltar
Guin
ea
Hondura
sIn
dia
Isra
el
Japan
Kenya
Latv
iaLib
eria
Macao
Mala
ysia
Malta
Mexic
oM
onts
err
at
Myanm
ar
Neth
erlands
New
Zeala
nd
Nig
eria
Om
an
Papua N
ew
Guin
ea
Philippin
es
Qata
rR
wanda
Saudi A
rabia
Sie
rra L
eone
Slo
venia
South
Afr
ica
St. K
itts a
nd N
evis
Sudan
Sw
eden
Taiw
an
Thaila
nd
Tonga
Turk
ey
Uganda
Unite
d K
ingdom
Venezuela
Zim
babw
e
Nu
mb
er
of
HS
-6 l
ines
market share erosion market share expansion
Exporter Analysis
Positive trade effects, by product and number of countries
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
010120
080300
160590
240399
283190
290329
291250
292144
320417
370242
390450
392119
420211
480540
510610
520841
540110
550520
551591
580134
610312
611511
620811
630533
681250
701951
721070
722592
731589
741819
810419
840120
844340
846510
850152
851822
854330
871680
902990
940390
HS-6 code
Co
un
trie
s
Product Analysis
Doha Proposals in WITS
• WTO Doha Proposals” simulates the tariff reduction proposals submitted to the WTO’s Negotiating Group on Market Access.
More flexible, user-defined tariff change formula option is under development
Improvement for immediate future
• Multi-market Simulation Model– Incorporation of GSIM model in
WITS/TRAINS
Computer Requirement
– PC of reasonable speed (minimum 200MHZ)
– Windows 98, 2000 or XP – Internet Explorer version 5.0 or higher– Internet Access with 50mb of disk space
How to Install WITSRegister at http://wits.worldbank.org/witsweb
Receive userid and password via e-mail
Download installation file from
http://wits.worldbank.org/install.htm
Install
CONTACT
Trade Information Section
UNCTAD/DITC/TAB
Palais des Nations
1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland
E-mail: [email protected]
Fax: +41 22 917 0044
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