Osmond and Gardner Modelling
Austria IHD, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value
Fitting the Age, Period, Cohort Models
Model RSS MRSS DF Factor %Account ChiSq P
AGE-ONLY 336.71 6.60 51 P, C 93.52 1791.50 0.0000
AGE-PERIOD 79.77 1.77 45 Cohort 72.63 424.03 0.0000
AGE-COHORT 76.99 2.14 36 Period 71.64 408.40 0.0000
PERIOD-COHORT 27.33 0.68 40 Age 20.12 145.17 0.0000
FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT 21.83 0.68 32 115.84 0.0000
AGE-GROUP LOG(AGE-VALUE) AGE-VALUE
30 2.018053 104.244579
35 2.376628 238.027702
40 2.728650 535.364769
45 3.008983 1020.899864
50 3.269068 1858.097358
55 3.514945 3272.992175
60 3.750072 5624.348513
65 3.950536 8923.524851
70 4.141987 13867.150200
75 4.320453 20914.787579
PERIOD LOG(PERIOD-VALUE) PERIOD-VALUE
1961 0.035466 1.085090
1966 0.014954 1.035032
1971 0.005210 1.012069
1976 0.020128 1.047437
1981 -0.019608 0.955855
1986 -0.072429 0.846391
COHORT LOG(COHORT-VALUE) COHORT-VALUE
1886 -0.016459 0.962811
1891 0.001483 1.003421
1896 0.011278 1.026308
1901 0.009772 1.022755
1906 -0.002153 0.995055
1911 -0.020688 0.953481
1916 0.006556 1.015211
1921 0.022982 1.054343
1926 -0.003306 0.992416
1931 0.034256 1.082071
1936 -0.063294 0.864382
1941 -0.040936 0.910047
1946 -0.072214 0.846811
1951 -0.066411 0.858201
1956 -0.248736 0.563980
Run by JS Fry on 14-MAY-14
Osmond and Gardner Modelling
Austria IHD, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value
Fitting the FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT Model
Matrix of observed and expected deaths and (O-E)**2/E Values
1961- 1966- 1971- 1976- 1981- 1986-
30 - OBS 172.0 101.0 108.0 108.0 100.0 69.0
EXP 134.0 103.4 130.1 124.8 105.0 69.0
CHI 10.8 0.1 3.8 2.2 0.2 0.0
35 - OBS 297.0 303.0 230.0 293.0 247.0 216.0
EXP 293.0 295.4 232.1 301.5 253.1 211.2
CHI 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1
40 - OBS 529.0 616.0 614.0 495.0 664.0 518.0
EXP 539.2 627.6 647.5 527.3 603.0 496.8
CHI 0.2 0.2 1.7 2.0 6.2 0.9
45 - OBS 789.0 948.0 1153.0 1300.0 932.0 959.0
EXP 857.6 967.8 1147.4 1234.7 885.2 995.1
CHI 5.5 0.4 0.0 3.5 2.5 1.3
50 - OBS 2026.0 1477.0 1712.0 2072.0 1949.0 1360.0
EXP 2095.1 1442.2 1669.0 2065.2 1954.3 1372.3
CHI 2.3 0.8 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
55 - OBS 3868.0 3293.0 2321.0 2901.0 3206.0 2784.0
EXP 3879.1 3319.7 2347.4 2861.6 3103.6 2864.9
CHI 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 3.4 2.3
60 - OBS 6201.0 5934.0 4982.0 3586.0 4161.0 4201.0
EXP 6127.8 5694.6 5069.2 3782.6 4092.6 4311.5
CHI 0.9 10.1 1.5 10.2 1.1 2.8
65 - OBS 7047.0 7693.0 7506.0 7187.0 4768.0 4942.0
EXP 7004.5 7747.2 7454.8 7162.0 4711.0 5065.9
CHI 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.7 3.0
70 - OBS 7243.0 7704.0 8897.0 9354.0 8095.0 5411.0
EXP 7251.3 7887.6 8969.1 9298.1 8080.5 5223.4
CHI 0.0 4.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 6.7
75 - OBS 7003.0 6922.0 7817.0 9411.0 8381.0 7932.0
EXP 7003.0 6913.7 7679.4 9359.0 8728.7 7791.8
CHI 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.3 13.9 2.5
Run by JS Fry on 14-MAY-14
Osmond and Gardner Modelling
Austria IHD, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value
Extrapolating Model: FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT
Effects for extending model to project rates to 1991 to 2010
Projections using parameters Log Transformed
Model ChiSq MChiSq DF Factor %Account P
AGE-ONLY 35834.19 895.85 40 P, C 94.94 0.0000
AGE-PERIOD 3487.54 87.19 40 Cohort 48.01 0.0000
AGE-COHORT 10833.90 270.85 40 Period 83.26 0.0000
PERIOD-COHORT 2314.00 57.85 40 Age 21.64 0.0000
FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT 1813.18 45.33 40 0.0000
AGE EFFECT
30 104.244579
35 238.027702
40 535.364769
45 1020.899864
50 1858.097358
55 3272.992175
60 5624.348513
65 8923.524851
70 13867.150200
75 20914.787579
PERIOD EFFECT LOWER UPPER
% Period Change 88.5480 85.5480 91.5480
1961 1.085090
1966 1.035032
1971 1.012069
1976 1.047437
1981 0.955855
1986 0.846391
1991 0.749463 0.724071 0.774855
1996 0.663635 0.619429 0.709364
2001 0.587636 0.529909 0.649409
2006 0.520340 0.453327 0.594521
COHORT EFFECT WEIGHT ORIGINAL
1886 0.962811 1.000000
1891 1.003421 2.000000
1896 1.026308 4.000000
1901 1.022755 8.000000
1906 0.995055 16.000000
1911 0.953481 32.000000
1916 1.015211 64.000000
1921 1.054343 128.000000
1926 0.992416 256.000000
1931 1.082071 512.000000
1936 0.864382 1024.000000
1941 0.910047 2048.000000
1946 0.846811 4096.000000
1951 0.858201 8192.000000
1956 0.825609 EXTRAPOLATION 0.563980
1961 0.803027 EXTRAPOLATION
1966 0.781063 EXTRAPOLATION
1971 0.759699 EXTRAPOLATION
1976 0.738920 EXTRAPOLATION
Run by JS Fry on 14-MAY-14
Osmond and Gardner Modelling
Austria IHD, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value
Extrapolating Model: FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT
Matrix of observed and expected rates including predictions (shown by *)
Total over ages standardized using: The 1976 European Standard Population
1961- 1966- 1971- 1976- 1981- 1986- 1991- 1996- 2001- 2006-
30 OBS 157.1 91.1 79.7 80.0 81.5 49.8 50.4 49.8 35.7 32.8
EXP 122.4 93.3 96.0 92.5 85.5 72.8 62.7* 54.0* 46.5* 40.1*
Elow 60.6 50.4 42.0 34.9
Eup 64.9 57.8 51.4 45.8
35 OBS 259.8 273.4 206.3 220.5 188.0 176.8 138.7 123.1 80.8 62.0
EXP 256.3 266.6 208.2 226.9 192.7 172.9 147.3* 126.8* 109.3* 94.1*
Elow 142.3 118.4 98.5 82.0
Eup 152.3 135.6 120.7 107.5
40 OBS 600.9 539.7 556.0 455.0 512.8 400.1 395.7 311.2 205.2 155.7
EXP 612.5 549.9 586.3 484.7 465.7 383.7 344.3* 293.3* 252.6* 217.6*
Elow 332.7 273.8 227.8 189.6
Eup 356.0 313.5 279.2 248.6
45 OBS 1034.7 1091.3 1030.4 1218.3 888.1 757.9 703.8 723.2 445.2 360.0
EXP 1124.6 1114.1 1025.4 1157.1 843.5 786.4 647.9* 581.4* 495.3* 426.6*
Elow 626.0 542.7 446.6 371.6
Eup 669.9 621.5 547.4 487.4
50 OBS 1859.0 1999.5 2033.8 1937.8 1916.6 1347.2 1336.2 1172.7 900.8 643.7
EXP 1922.4 1952.4 1982.7 1931.5 1921.8 1359.4 1267.3* 1044.2* 937.1* 798.2*
Elow 1224.4 974.6 845.0 695.4
Eup 1310.2 1116.2 1035.6 912.0
55 OBS 3523.8 3204.0 3325.0 3664.3 3207.2 2912.9 2184.1 2078.0 1295.7 1191.4
EXP 3533.9 3230.1 3362.9 3614.6 3104.8 2997.6 2120.3* 1976.7* 1628.7* 1461.6*
Elow 2048.5 1845.0 1468.7 1273.3
Eup 2192.2 2112.9 1799.9 1669.9
60 OBS 6316.4 6036.1 5334.1 5669.9 5762.9 4603.2 4448.2 3298.1 2290.8 1857.6
EXP 6241.8 5792.6 5427.4 5980.8 5668.2 4724.3 4561.2* 3226.3* 3007.8* 2478.3*
Elow 4406.7 3011.4 2712.3 2159.1
Eup 4715.7 3448.6 3323.9 2831.6
65 OBS 9997.8 9380.2 9048.3 8943.1 8764.1 7768.4 6622.1 6352.2 3817.7 3095.3
EXP 9937.6 9446.3 8986.6 8912.0 8659.3 7963.2 6637.1* 6408.0* 4532.6* 4225.6*
Elow 6412.3 5981.1 4087.4 3681.4
Eup 6862.0 6849.5 5009.1 4828.0
70 OBS 15081.2 14387.7 14238.5 14540.0 12661.1 12343.5 11206.5 9485.3 7235.2 5122.5
EXP 15098.6 14730.5 14353.9 14453.1 12638.4 11915.6 10957.7* 9132.9* 8817.6* 6237.1*
Elow 10586.4 8524.6 7951.4 5433.8
Eup 11328.9 9762.3 9744.5 7126.2
75 OBS 21850.4 21747.7 22113.3 22529.8 19100.2 17182.3 18163.3 16355.1 11917.4 10288.7
EXP 21850.4 21721.5 21724.1 22405.4 19892.7 16878.6 15913.3* 14634.0* 12197.1* 11776.0*
Elow 15374.1 13659.2 10998.9 10259.4
Eup 16452.4 15642.4 13479.2 13454.8
30-79 OBS 3800.7 3664.5 3583.6 3675.8 3352.9 2947.0 2730.1 2403.5 1667.5 1337.1
EXP 3807.8 3665.4 3582.9 3684.7 3343.1 2952.6 2619.3* 2272.5* 1939.5* 1661.1*
Elow 2530.6 2121.2 1749.0 1447.2
Eup 2708.1 2429.1 2143.4 1897.9
Run by JS Fry on 14-MAY-14
Osmond and Gardner Modelling
Austria IHD, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value
Extrapolating Model: FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT
Matrix of observed and expected deaths including predictions
1961- 1966- 1971- 1976- 1981- 1986- 1991- 1996- 2001- 2006-
30 - OBS 172.0 101.0 108.0 108.0 100.0 69.0 86.0 90.0 56.0 44.0
EXP 134.0 103.4 130.1 124.8 105.0 101.0 107.1* 97.6* 72.9* 53.8*
CHI 10.759 0.054 3.764 2.250 0.236 10.143 4.144 0.586 3.924 1.782
35 - OBS 297.0 303.0 230.0 293.0 247.0 216.0 199.0 211.0 146.0 99.0
EXP 293.0 295.4 232.1 301.5 253.1 211.2 211.4* 217.5* 197.4* 150.3*
CHI 0.055 0.195 0.019 0.242 0.149 0.109 0.722 0.192 13.393 17.489
40 - OBS 529.0 616.0 614.0 495.0 664.0 518.0 492.0 446.0 349.0 283.0
EXP 539.2 627.6 647.5 527.3 603.0 496.8 428.2* 420.3* 429.6* 395.5*
CHI 0.194 0.215 1.731 1.984 6.163 0.904 9.516 1.566 15.115 31.981
45 - OBS 789.0 948.0 1153.0 1300.0 932.0 959.0 906.0 889.0 629.0 610.0
EXP 857.6 967.8 1147.4 1234.7 885.2 995.1 834.0* 714.7* 699.7* 722.8*
CHI 5.483 0.405 0.028 3.458 2.479 1.307 6.210 42.488 7.151 17.593
50 - OBS 2026.0 1477.0 1712.0 2072.0 1949.0 1360.0 1650.0 1465.0 1081.0 896.0
EXP 2095.1 1442.2 1669.0 2065.2 1954.3 1372.3 1565.0* 1304.5* 1124.5* 1111.1*
CHI 2.280 0.838 1.108 0.022 0.014 0.111 4.618 19.755 1.679 41.625
55 - OBS 3868.0 3293.0 2321.0 2901.0 3206.0 2784.0 2109.0 2454.0 1555.0 1385.0
EXP 3879.1 3319.7 2347.4 2861.6 3103.6 2864.9 2047.4* 2334.3* 1954.7* 1699.0*
CHI 0.032 0.215 0.298 0.541 3.380 2.284 1.852 6.134 81.717 58.044
60 - OBS 6201.0 5934.0 4982.0 3586.0 4161.0 4201.0 3933.0 2970.0 2558.0 2112.0
EXP 6127.8 5694.6 5069.2 3782.6 4092.6 4311.5 4032.9* 2905.3* 3358.6* 2817.7*
CHI 0.876 10.060 1.501 10.219 1.142 2.832 2.475 1.439 190.862 176.732
65 - OBS 7047.0 7693.0 7506.0 7187.0 4768.0 4942.0 5364.0 5013.0 3149.0 3206.0
EXP 7004.5 7747.2 7454.8 7162.0 4711.0 5065.9 5376.2* 5057.0* 3738.7* 4376.8*
CHI 0.258 0.379 0.352 0.087 0.690 3.032 0.028 0.383 93.011 313.172
70 - OBS 7243.0 7704.0 8897.0 9354.0 8095.0 5411.0 5975.0 6451.0 4932.0 3751.0
EXP 7251.3 7887.6 8969.1 9298.1 8080.5 5223.4 5842.3* 6211.4* 6010.7* 4567.1*
CHI 0.010 4.272 0.579 0.336 0.026 6.738 3.012 9.245 193.585 145.844
75 - OBS 7003.0 6922.0 7817.0 9411.0 8381.0 7932.0 5865.0 6741.0 6412.0 5725.0
EXP 7003.0 6913.7 7679.4 9359.0 8728.7 7791.8 5138.5* 6031.6* 6562.5* 6552.5*
CHI 0.000 0.010 2.465 0.289 13.853 2.523 102.726 83.425 3.451 104.514
30-79 OBS 35175.0 34991.0 35340.0 36707.0 32503.0 28392.0 26579.0 26730.0 20867.0 18111.0
EXP 35184.6 34999.3 35346.0 36716.8 32517.0 28433.9 25582.9* 25294.3* 24149.3* 22446.5*
O/E 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.039 1.057 0.864 0.807
CHI SQUARE (LOG)= 1813.1814 ON 40 D.F., P = 0.0000
Run by JS Fry on 14-MAY-14
Osmond and Gardner Modelling
Austria IHD, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value
Extrapolating Model: FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT
O&G Cohort and Period parameter values
Run by JS Fry on 14-MAY-14
Cohort Period
COHORT & PERIOD VALUES
CALENDAR YEAR 0.50
0.70
0.90
1.10
1888 1893 1898 1903 1908 1913 1918 1923 1928 1933 1938 1943 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988
Osmond and Gardner Modelling
Austria IHD, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value
Extrapolating Model: FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT
Observed and fitted rates for selected age groups
Run by JS Fry on 14-MAY-14
Observed: ages 30-34 Observed: ages 40-44 Observed: ages 50-54 Observed: ages 60-64 Observed: ages 70-74
Fitted: ages 30-34 Fitted: ages 40-44 Fitted: ages 50-54 Fitted: ages 60-64 Fitted: ages 70-74
RATE (LOG10 SCALE)
YEAR OF DEATH 1.50
2.10
2.70
3.30
3.90
4.50
1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Osmond and Gardner Modelling
Austria IHD, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value
Extrapolating Model: FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT
Observed and predicted rates (5 year periods)
30- 35- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60- 65- 70- 75-
1991- OBS 50.4 138.7 395.7 703.8 1336.2 2184.1 4448.2 6622.1 11206.5 18163.3
PRE 62.7 147.3 344.3 647.9 1267.3 2120.3 4561.2 6637.1 10957.7 15913.3
RES -12.343 -8.607 51.335 55.910 68.845 63.763 -113.000 -15.020 248.821 2250.005
1996- OBS 49.8 123.1 311.2 723.2 1172.7 2078.0 3298.1 6352.2 9485.3 16355.1
PRE 54.0 126.8 293.3 581.4 1044.2 1976.7 3226.3 6408.0 9132.9 14634.0
RES -4.187 -3.768 17.904 141.762 128.502 101.326 71.799 -55.796 352.346 1721.055
2001- OBS 35.7 80.8 205.2 445.2 900.8 1295.7 2290.8 3817.7 7235.2 11917.4
PRE 46.5 109.3 252.6 495.3 937.1 1628.7 3007.8 4532.6 8817.6 12197.1
RES -10.796 -28.455 -47.388 -50.072 -36.209 -333.013 -717.004 -714.920 -1582.431 -279.709
2006- OBS 32.8 62.0 155.7 360.0 643.7 1191.4 1857.6 3095.3 5122.5 10288.7
PRE 40.1 94.1 217.6 426.6 798.2 1461.6 2478.3 4225.6 6237.1 11776.0
RES -7.295 -32.101 -61.875 -66.553 -154.504 -270.146 -620.666 -1130.322 -1114.558 -1487.229
Observed and predicted deaths (5 year periods)
30- 35- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60- 65- 70- 75-
1991- OBS 86.0 199.0 492.0 906.0 1650.0 2109.0 3933.0 5364.0 5975.0 5865.0
PRE 107.1 211.4 428.2 834.0 1565.0 2047.4 4032.9 5376.2 5842.3 5138.5
CHI 4.144 0.722 9.516 6.210 4.618 1.852 2.475 0.028 3.012 102.726
1996- OBS 90.0 211.0 446.0 889.0 1465.0 2454.0 2970.0 5013.0 6451.0 6741.0
PRE 97.6 217.5 420.3 714.7 1304.5 2334.3 2905.3 5057.0 6211.4 6031.6
CHI 0.586 0.192 1.566 42.488 19.755 6.134 1.439 0.383 9.245 83.425
2001- OBS 56.0 146.0 349.0 629.0 1081.0 1555.0 2558.0 3149.0 4932.0 6412.0
PRE 72.9 197.4 429.6 699.7 1124.5 1954.7 3358.6 3738.7 6010.7 6562.5
CHI 3.924 13.393 15.115 7.151 1.679 81.717 190.862 93.011 193.585 3.451
2006- OBS 44.0 99.0 283.0 610.0 896.0 1385.0 2112.0 3206.0 3751.0 5725.0
PRE 53.8 150.3 395.5 722.8 1111.1 1699.0 2817.7 4376.8 4567.1 6552.5
CHI 1.782 17.489 31.981 17.593 41.625 58.044 176.732 313.172 145.844 104.514
Run by JS Fry on 14-MAY-14
Osmond and Gardner Modelling
Austria Stroke, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value
Fitting the Age, Period, Cohort Models
Model RSS MRSS DF Factor %Account ChiSq P
AGE-ONLY 528.18 10.36 51 P, C 96.06 2824.46 0.0000
AGE-PERIOD 46.35 1.03 45 Cohort 55.16 246.42 0.0000
AGE-COHORT 69.86 1.94 36 Period 70.25 371.04 0.0000
PERIOD-COHORT 25.26 0.63 40 Age 17.73 134.15 0.0000
FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT 20.78 0.65 32 110.32 0.0000
AGE-GROUP LOG(AGE-VALUE) AGE-VALUE
30 1.604228 40.200164
35 1.909690 81.225133
40 2.247808 176.932704
45 2.510458 323.934799
50 2.776187 597.291810
55 3.045182 1109.639022
60 3.351490 2246.415384
65 3.655253 4521.195729
70 3.931137 8533.697025
75 4.188823 15446.255720
PERIOD LOG(PERIOD-VALUE) PERIOD-VALUE
1961 0.029360 1.069940
1966 0.037428 1.090004
1971 0.024571 1.058207
1976 -0.000429 0.999012
1981 -0.019952 0.955098
1986 -0.114078 0.768992
COHORT LOG(COHORT-VALUE) COHORT-VALUE
1886 0.038822 1.093508
1891 0.030008 1.071540
1896 0.021375 1.050450
1901 0.023257 1.055011
1906 0.011132 1.025963
1911 -0.029017 0.935369
1916 -0.042267 0.907262
1921 -0.058379 0.874220
1926 -0.095429 0.802733
1931 -0.023539 0.947243
1936 -0.058986 0.872999
1941 -0.025574 0.942813
1946 -0.045370 0.900803
1951 0.045298 1.109937
1956 0.030648 1.073118
Run by JS Fry on 14-MAY-14
Osmond and Gardner Modelling
Austria Stroke, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value
Fitting the FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT Model
Matrix of observed and expected deaths and (O-E)**2/E Values
1961- 1966- 1971- 1976- 1981- 1986-
30 - OBS 43.0 48.0 51.0 48.0 52.0 46.0
EXP 44.6 42.4 54.4 48.8 52.3 46.0
CHI 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
35 - OBS 68.0 74.0 98.0 107.0 98.0 85.0
EXP 79.7 92.9 83.6 101.7 91.8 84.7
CHI 1.7 3.9 2.5 0.3 0.4 0.0
40 - OBS 114.0 148.0 211.0 188.0 228.0 153.0
EXP 145.7 176.7 195.9 167.9 206.3 158.7
CHI 6.9 4.7 1.2 2.4 2.3 0.2
45 - OBS 226.0 265.0 312.0 376.0 268.0 271.0
EXP 239.8 268.1 307.9 327.1 283.4 297.2
CHI 0.8 0.0 0.1 7.3 0.8 2.3
50 - OBS 604.0 408.0 510.0 549.0 565.0 376.0
EXP 651.5 436.3 465.1 512.2 549.5 404.8
CHI 3.5 1.8 4.3 2.7 0.4 2.0
55 - OBS 1315.0 1092.0 759.0 852.0 900.0 704.0
EXP 1337.0 1162.8 743.7 767.2 850.4 772.5
CHI 0.4 4.3 0.3 9.4 2.9 6.1
60 - OBS 2517.0 2525.0 2068.0 1259.0 1364.0 1208.0
EXP 2489.4 2469.7 2076.8 1287.7 1354.3 1265.5
CHI 0.3 1.2 0.0 0.6 0.1 2.6
65 - OBS 3669.0 4324.0 4138.0 3351.0 2074.0 1815.0
EXP 3581.7 4264.0 4071.9 3395.2 2131.4 1933.6
CHI 2.1 0.8 1.1 0.6 1.5 7.3
70 - OBS 4704.0 5257.0 5914.0 5542.0 4857.0 2718.0
EXP 4698.8 5232.0 5953.1 5626.9 4874.3 2609.9
CHI 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 0.1 4.5
75 - OBS 5792.0 5737.0 5955.0 6751.0 6625.0 5310.0
EXP 5792.0 5742.2 6069.5 6800.3 6641.4 5129.0
CHI 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.4 0.0 6.4
Run by JS Fry on 14-MAY-14
Osmond and Gardner Modelling
Austria Stroke, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value
Extrapolating Model: FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT
Effects for extending model to project rates to 1991 to 2010
Projections using parameters Log Transformed
Model ChiSq MChiSq DF Factor %Account P
AGE-ONLY 39895.50 997.39 40 P, C 94.97 0.0000
AGE-PERIOD 867.11 21.68 40 Cohort -131.45 0.0000
AGE-COHORT 14096.31 352.41 40 Period 85.76 0.0000
PERIOD-COHORT 2028.17 50.70 40 Age 1.05 0.0000
FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT 2006.94 50.17 40 0.0000
AGE EFFECT
30 40.200164
35 81.225133
40 176.932704
45 323.934799
50 597.291810
55 1109.639022
60 2246.415384
65 4521.195729
70 8533.697025
75 15446.255720
PERIOD EFFECT LOWER UPPER
% Period Change 80.5144 77.5144 83.5144
1961 1.069940
1966 1.090004
1971 1.058207
1976 0.999012
1981 0.955098
1986 0.768992
1991 0.619149 0.596079 0.642219
1996 0.498504 0.462047 0.536345
2001 0.401368 0.358153 0.447926
2006 0.323159 0.277621 0.374083
COHORT EFFECT WEIGHT ORIGINAL
1886 1.093508 1.000000
1891 1.071540 2.000000
1896 1.050450 4.000000
1901 1.055011 8.000000
1906 1.025963 16.000000
1911 0.935369 32.000000
1916 0.907262 64.000000
1921 0.874220 128.000000
1926 0.802733 256.000000
1931 0.947243 512.000000
1936 0.872999 1024.000000
1941 0.942813 2048.000000
1946 0.900803 4096.000000
1951 1.109937 8192.000000
1956 1.113145 EXTRAPOLATION 1.073118
1961 1.172360 EXTRAPOLATION
1966 1.234725 EXTRAPOLATION
1971 1.300408 EXTRAPOLATION
1976 1.369585 EXTRAPOLATION
Run by JS Fry on 14-MAY-14
Osmond and Gardner Modelling
Austria Stroke, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value
Extrapolating Model: FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT
Matrix of observed and expected rates including predictions (shown by *)
Total over ages standardized using: The 1976 European Standard Population
1961- 1966- 1971- 1976- 1981- 1986- 1991- 1996- 2001- 2006-
30 OBS 39.3 43.3 37.6 35.6 42.4 33.2 29.3 23.8 14.0 9.7
EXP 40.7 38.3 40.1 36.2 42.6 34.4 29.2* 24.7* 21.0* 17.8*
Elow 28.1 22.9 18.7 15.3
Eup 30.3 26.6 23.4 20.6
35 OBS 59.5 66.8 87.9 80.5 74.6 69.6 53.0 47.8 26.6 21.3
EXP 69.8 83.9 75.0 76.5 69.9 69.3 56.0* 47.5* 40.3* 34.1*
Elow 53.9 44.0 35.9 29.3
Eup 58.1 51.1 44.9 39.5
40 OBS 129.5 129.7 191.1 172.8 176.1 118.2 104.5 96.3 58.8 42.4
EXP 165.5 154.8 177.4 154.3 159.3 122.6 121.6* 98.2* 83.3* 70.6*
Elow 117.1 91.0 74.3 60.6
Eup 126.1 105.6 92.9 81.7
45 OBS 296.4 305.1 278.8 352.4 255.4 214.2 178.7 172.5 106.9 82.6
EXP 314.4 308.7 275.2 306.5 270.1 234.9 180.7* 179.2* 144.7* 122.7*
Elow 173.9 166.1 129.1 105.4
Eup 187.4 192.8 161.5 142.1
50 OBS 554.2 552.3 605.9 513.5 555.6 372.5 317.4 270.6 181.7 137.9
EXP 597.8 590.7 552.6 479.0 540.4 401.0 348.7* 268.2* 266.1* 214.9*
Elow 335.7 248.6 237.4 184.6
Eup 361.7 288.6 297.0 248.7
55 OBS 1198.0 1062.5 1087.3 1076.2 900.3 736.6 570.6 439.5 298.3 202.2
EXP 1218.1 1131.3 1065.3 969.1 850.7 808.3 599.8* 521.5* 401.2* 398.0*
Elow 577.4 483.4 358.0 341.9
Eup 622.1 561.1 447.7 460.7
60 OBS 2563.8 2568.4 2214.1 1990.6 1889.1 1323.7 1124.2 852.8 548.1 350.1
EXP 2535.8 2512.2 2223.5 2036.1 1875.7 1386.7 1317.5* 977.6* 850.1* 653.9*
Elow 1268.4 906.1 758.6 561.8
Eup 1366.6 1051.8 948.7 757.0
65 OBS 5205.3 5272.3 4988.3 4169.8 3812.2 2853.0 1975.3 1836.1 1018.4 746.3
EXP 5081.5 5199.2 4908.6 4224.8 3917.7 3039.5 2247.1* 2134.9* 1584.2* 1377.5*
Elow 2163.4 1978.8 1413.6 1183.4
Eup 2330.8 2297.0 1768.0 1594.6
70 OBS 9794.6 9817.8 9464.6 8614.6 7596.6 6200.3 4206.9 3359.8 2370.7 1451.7
EXP 9783.7 9771.0 9527.2 8746.6 7623.7 5953.8 4619.1* 3414.9* 3244.5* 2407.5*
Elow 4446.9 3165.2 2895.1 2068.2
Eup 4791.2 3674.1 3620.8 2786.9
75 OBS 18071.9 18024.6 16845.9 16161.8 15098.3 11502.5 9309.3 7649.8 4395.6 3218.7
EXP 18071.9 18041.0 17170.0 16279.9 15135.7 11110.4 8676.6* 6731.5* 4976.7* 4728.3*
Elow 8353.3 6239.2 4440.8 4062.0
Eup 8999.9 7242.5 5553.9 5473.3
30-79 OBS 2071.1 2063.4 1964.4 1806.2 1651.1 1267.4 963.0 798.2 495.0 341.8
EXP 2075.0 2068.6 1961.9 1801.1 1652.2 1273.8 1009.8* 810.7* 664.9* 564.9*
Elow 972.1 751.4 593.3 485.3
Eup 1047.4 872.3 742.0 653.9
Run by JS Fry on 14-MAY-14
Osmond and Gardner Modelling
Austria Stroke, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value
Extrapolating Model: FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT
Matrix of observed and expected deaths including predictions
1961- 1966- 1971- 1976- 1981- 1986- 1991- 1996- 2001- 2006-
30 - OBS 43.0 48.0 51.0 48.0 52.0 46.0 50.0 43.0 22.0 13.0
EXP 44.6 42.4 54.4 48.8 52.3 47.7 49.8* 44.7* 32.9* 23.9*
CHI 0.058 0.740 0.208 0.013 0.002 0.062 0.001 0.063 3.598 4.956
35 - OBS 68.0 74.0 98.0 107.0 98.0 85.0 76.0 82.0 48.0 34.0
EXP 79.7 92.9 83.6 101.7 91.8 84.7 80.3* 81.4* 72.7* 54.5*
CHI 1.729 3.858 2.464 0.279 0.417 0.001 0.234 0.005 8.415 7.718
40 - OBS 114.0 148.0 211.0 188.0 228.0 153.0 130.0 138.0 100.0 77.0
EXP 145.7 176.7 195.9 167.9 206.3 158.7 151.2* 140.7* 141.6* 128.3*
CHI 6.898 4.659 1.170 2.411 2.281 0.204 2.970 0.052 12.206 20.521
45 - OBS 226.0 265.0 312.0 376.0 268.0 271.0 230.0 212.0 151.0 140.0
EXP 239.8 268.1 307.9 327.1 283.4 297.2 232.6* 220.3* 204.5* 207.9*
CHI 0.792 0.037 0.055 7.313 0.841 2.308 0.028 0.315 13.981 22.196
50 - OBS 604.0 408.0 510.0 549.0 565.0 376.0 392.0 338.0 218.0 192.0
EXP 651.5 436.3 465.1 512.2 549.5 404.8 430.6* 335.1* 319.3* 299.1*
CHI 3.459 1.838 4.329 2.651 0.437 2.049 3.454 0.026 32.139 38.326
55 - OBS 1315.0 1092.0 759.0 852.0 900.0 704.0 551.0 519.0 358.0 235.0
EXP 1337.0 1162.8 743.7 767.2 850.4 772.5 579.2* 615.9* 481.5* 462.7*
CHI 0.363 4.305 0.317 9.362 2.891 6.075 1.369 15.242 31.672 112.036
60 - OBS 2517.0 2525.0 2068.0 1259.0 1364.0 1208.0 994.0 768.0 612.0 398.0
EXP 2489.4 2469.7 2076.8 1287.7 1354.3 1265.5 1164.9* 880.4* 949.2* 743.5*
CHI 0.306 1.238 0.037 0.641 0.070 2.616 25.071 14.342 119.816 160.552
65 - OBS 3669.0 4324.0 4138.0 3351.0 2074.0 1815.0 1600.0 1449.0 840.0 773.0
EXP 3581.7 4264.0 4071.9 3395.2 2131.4 1933.6 1820.2* 1684.8* 1306.7* 1426.8*
CHI 2.129 0.843 1.073 0.575 1.545 7.274 26.632 33.012 166.692 299.584
70 - OBS 4704.0 5257.0 5914.0 5542.0 4857.0 2718.0 2243.0 2285.0 1616.0 1063.0
EXP 4698.8 5232.0 5953.1 5626.9 4874.3 2609.9 2462.8* 2322.5* 2211.6* 1762.9*
CHI 0.006 0.120 0.257 1.282 0.062 4.475 19.608 0.605 160.419 277.883
75 - OBS 5792.0 5737.0 5955.0 6751.0 6625.0 5310.0 3006.0 3153.0 2365.0 1791.0
EXP 5792.0 5742.2 6069.5 6800.3 6641.4 5129.0 2801.7* 2774.5* 2677.6* 2631.0*
CHI 0.000 0.005 2.162 0.358 0.041 6.391 14.895 51.637 36.502 268.166
30-79 OBS 19052.0 19878.0 20016.0 19023.0 17031.0 12686.0 9272.0 8987.0 6330.0 4716.0
EXP 19060.2 19887.1 20021.9 19035.0 17035.2 12703.6 9773.1* 9100.2* 8397.7* 7740.5*
O/E 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 0.999 0.949 0.988 0.754 0.609
CHI SQUARE (LOG)= 2006.9377 ON 40 D.F., P = 0.0000
Run by JS Fry on 14-MAY-14
Osmond and Gardner Modelling
Austria Stroke, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value
Extrapolating Model: FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT
O&G Cohort and Period parameter values
Run by JS Fry on 14-MAY-14
Cohort Period
COHORT & PERIOD VALUES
CALENDAR YEAR 0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1888 1893 1898 1903 1908 1913 1918 1923 1928 1933 1938 1943 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988
Osmond and Gardner Modelling
Austria Stroke, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value
Extrapolating Model: FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT
Observed and fitted rates for selected age groups
Run by JS Fry on 14-MAY-14
Observed: ages 30-34 Observed: ages 40-44 Observed: ages 50-54 Observed: ages 60-64 Observed: ages 70-74
Fitted: ages 30-34 Fitted: ages 40-44 Fitted: ages 50-54 Fitted: ages 60-64 Fitted: ages 70-74
RATE (LOG10 SCALE)
YEAR OF DEATH 0.90
1.60
2.30
3.00
3.70
4.40
1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Osmond and Gardner Modelling
Austria Stroke, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value
Extrapolating Model: FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT
Observed and predicted rates (5 year periods)
30- 35- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60- 65- 70- 75-
1991- OBS 29.3 53.0 104.5 178.7 317.4 570.6 1124.2 1975.3 4206.9 9309.3
PRE 29.2 56.0 121.6 180.7 348.7 599.8 1317.5 2247.1 4619.1 8676.6
RES 0.120 -3.019 -17.042 -1.993 -31.227 -29.163 -193.283 -271.813 -412.157 632.640
1996- OBS 23.8 47.8 96.3 172.5 270.6 439.5 852.8 1836.1 3359.8 7649.8
PRE 24.7 47.5 98.2 179.2 268.2 521.5 977.6 2134.9 3414.9 6731.5
RES -0.928 0.362 -1.881 -6.775 2.346 -82.045 -124.780 -298.840 -55.130 918.334
2001- OBS 14.0 26.6 58.8 106.9 181.7 298.3 548.1 1018.4 2370.7 4395.6
PRE 21.0 40.3 83.3 144.7 266.1 401.2 850.1 1584.2 3244.5 4976.7
RES -6.941 -13.691 -24.446 -37.845 -84.420 -102.896 -302.014 -565.819 -873.799 -581.058
2006- OBS 9.7 21.3 42.4 82.6 137.9 202.2 350.1 746.3 1451.7 3218.7
PRE 17.8 34.1 70.6 122.7 214.9 398.0 653.9 1377.5 2407.5 4728.3
RES -8.106 -12.844 -28.233 -40.096 -76.917 -195.856 -303.881 -631.210 -955.833 -1509.544
Observed and predicted deaths (5 year periods)
30- 35- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60- 65- 70- 75-
1991- OBS 50.0 76.0 130.0 230.0 392.0 551.0 994.0 1600.0 2243.0 3006.0
PRE 49.8 80.3 151.2 232.6 430.6 579.2 1164.9 1820.2 2462.8 2801.7
CHI 0.001 0.234 2.970 0.028 3.454 1.369 25.071 26.632 19.608 14.895
1996- OBS 43.0 82.0 138.0 212.0 338.0 519.0 768.0 1449.0 2285.0 3153.0
PRE 44.7 81.4 140.7 220.3 335.1 615.9 880.4 1684.8 2322.5 2774.5
CHI 0.063 0.005 0.052 0.315 0.026 15.242 14.342 33.012 0.605 51.637
2001- OBS 22.0 48.0 100.0 151.0 218.0 358.0 612.0 840.0 1616.0 2365.0
PRE 32.9 72.7 141.6 204.5 319.3 481.5 949.2 1306.7 2211.6 2677.6
CHI 3.598 8.415 12.206 13.981 32.139 31.672 119.816 166.692 160.419 36.502
2006- OBS 13.0 34.0 77.0 140.0 192.0 235.0 398.0 773.0 1063.0 1791.0
PRE 23.9 54.5 128.3 207.9 299.1 462.7 743.5 1426.8 1762.9 2631.0
CHI 4.956 7.718 20.521 22.196 38.326 112.036 160.552 299.584 277.883 268.166
Run by JS Fry on 14-MAY-14
Osmond and Gardner Modelling
Austria Lung Cancers, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value
Fitting the Age, Period, Cohort Models
Model RSS MRSS DF Factor %Account ChiSq P
AGE-ONLY 228.52 4.48 51 P, C 97.07 1215.12 0.0000
AGE-PERIOD 175.30 3.90 45 Cohort 96.18 933.06 0.0000
AGE-COHORT 8.30 0.23 36 Period 19.32 44.10 0.1664
PERIOD-COHORT 13.48 0.34 40 Age 50.33 71.62 0.0016
FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT 6.70 0.21 32 35.61 0.3021
AGE-GROUP LOG(AGE-VALUE) AGE-VALUE
30 1.127703 13.418481
35 1.637170 43.368100
40 2.111303 129.211946
45 2.536689 344.103285
50 2.884053 765.690198
55 3.163361 1456.670915
60 3.384698 2424.924413
65 3.546227 3517.439827
70 3.646385 4429.812421
75 3.688014 4875.446235
PERIOD LOG(PERIOD-VALUE) PERIOD-VALUE
1961 0.001948 1.004495
1966 -0.001015 0.997666
1971 0.000337 1.000777
1976 0.005739 1.013303
1981 0.003912 1.009049
1986 -0.012317 0.972038
COHORT LOG(COHORT-VALUE) COHORT-VALUE
1886 -0.133204 0.735861
1891 -0.020269 0.954402
1896 0.048417 1.117936
1901 0.080188 1.202784
1906 0.035672 1.085605
1911 -0.047607 0.896176
1916 -0.081017 0.829818
1921 -0.060531 0.869899
1926 -0.041916 0.907997
1931 -0.006100 0.986052
1936 -0.054712 0.881633
1941 0.031850 1.076092
1946 0.070070 1.175088
1951 0.066510 1.165494
1956 -0.053228 0.884652
Run by JS Fry on 14-MAY-14
Osmond and Gardner Modelling
Austria Lung Cancers, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value
Fitting the FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT Model
Matrix of observed and expected deaths and (O-E)**2/E Values
1961- 1966- 1971- 1976- 1981- 1986-
30 - OBS 19.0 18.0 20.0 14.0 13.0 16.0
EXP 14.6 13.1 19.6 21.6 19.4 16.0
CHI 1.4 1.8 0.0 2.6 2.1 0.0
35 - OBS 44.0 51.0 51.0 56.0 56.0 65.0
EXP 45.2 47.3 42.7 62.8 67.6 60.0
CHI 0.0 0.3 1.6 0.7 2.0 0.4
40 - OBS 94.0 125.0 140.0 128.0 177.0 207.0
EXP 99.4 133.6 140.8 125.6 181.7 191.1
CHI 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3
45 - OBS 200.0 249.0 346.0 384.0 325.0 466.0
EXP 218.7 259.4 349.9 366.9 321.2 455.5
CHI 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.2
50 - OBS 745.0 440.0 570.0 773.0 800.0 641.0
EXP 751.2 468.3 561.1 753.3 774.7 662.4
CHI 0.1 1.7 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.7
55 - OBS 1771.0 1331.0 842.0 1019.0 1365.0 1282.0
EXP 1743.6 1338.5 844.4 1016.6 1334.1 1334.4
CHI 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.1
60 - OBS 2911.0 2574.0 2001.0 1320.0 1547.0 1915.0
EXP 2876.2 2582.0 2031.3 1289.6 1536.9 1953.2
CHI 0.4 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.7
65 - OBS 2729.0 3496.0 3221.0 2564.0 1580.0 1886.0
EXP 2784.1 3461.6 3170.1 2566.9 1602.3 1892.1
CHI 1.1 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.0
70 - OBS 2057.0 2680.0 3279.0 3094.0 2563.0 1605.0
EXP 2039.6 2645.5 3331.9 3134.9 2561.2 1566.4
CHI 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.0
75 - OBS 1155.0 1460.0 1948.0 2465.0 2313.0 2005.0
EXP 1155.0 1477.6 1928.2 2482.1 2343.5 1960.6
CHI 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 1.0
Run by JS Fry on 14-MAY-14
Osmond and Gardner Modelling
Austria Lung Cancers, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value
Extrapolating Model: FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT
Effects for extending model to project rates to 1991 to 2010
Projections using parameters Log Transformed
Model ChiSq MChiSq DF Factor %Account P
AGE-ONLY 5413.60 135.34 40 P, C 48.60 0.0000
AGE-PERIOD 695.10 17.38 40 Cohort -300.32 0.0000
AGE-COHORT 5030.71 125.77 40 Period 44.69 0.0000
PERIOD-COHORT 2112.18 52.80 40 Age -31.74 0.0000
FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT 2782.62 69.57 40 0.0000
AGE EFFECT
30 13.418481
35 43.368100
40 129.211946
45 344.103285
50 765.690198
55 1456.670915
60 2424.924413
65 3517.439827
70 4429.812421
75 4875.446235
PERIOD EFFECT LOWER UPPER
% Period Change 96.3321 93.3321 99.3321
1961 1.004495
1966 0.997666
1971 1.000777
1976 1.013303
1981 1.009049
1986 0.972038
1991 0.936385 0.907224 0.965546
1996 0.902039 0.846731 0.959097
2001 0.868953 0.790272 0.952691
2006 0.837081 0.737577 0.946328
COHORT EFFECT WEIGHT ORIGINAL
1886 0.735861 1.000000
1891 0.954402 2.000000
1896 1.117936 4.000000
1901 1.202784 8.000000
1906 1.085605 16.000000
1911 0.896176 32.000000
1916 0.829818 64.000000
1921 0.869899 128.000000
1926 0.907997 256.000000
1931 0.986052 512.000000
1936 0.881633 1024.000000
1941 1.076092 2048.000000
1946 1.175088 4096.000000
1951 1.165494 8192.000000
1956 1.240173 EXTRAPOLATION 0.884652
1961 1.304339 EXTRAPOLATION
1966 1.371825 EXTRAPOLATION
1971 1.442803 EXTRAPOLATION
1976 1.517453 EXTRAPOLATION
Run by JS Fry on 14-MAY-14
Osmond and Gardner Modelling
Austria Lung Cancers, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value
Extrapolating Model: FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT
Matrix of observed and expected rates including predictions (shown by *)
Total over ages standardized using: The 1976 European Standard Population
1961- 1966- 1971- 1976- 1981- 1986- 1991- 1996- 2001- 2006-
30 OBS 17.4 16.2 14.8 10.4 10.6 11.5 9.4 10.5 9.6 4.5
EXP 13.3 11.8 14.5 16.0 15.8 16.2 16.4* 16.6* 16.8* 17.0*
Elow 15.9 15.6 15.3 15.0
Eup 16.9 17.7 18.4 19.3
35 OBS 38.5 46.0 45.8 42.1 42.6 53.2 36.2 28.6 23.8 22.5
EXP 39.6 42.7 38.3 47.3 51.4 49.1 50.4* 51.0* 51.7* 52.4*
Elow 48.8 47.9 47.0 46.2
Eup 51.9 54.3 56.7 59.2
40 OBS 106.8 109.5 126.8 117.7 136.7 159.9 160.8 109.6 71.7 57.2
EXP 112.9 117.1 127.5 115.4 140.3 147.6 141.0* 144.5* 146.5* 148.4*
Elow 136.6 135.7 133.2 130.7
Eup 145.4 153.7 160.6 167.7
45 OBS 262.3 286.6 309.2 359.9 309.7 368.3 344.9 331.1 261.2 197.1
EXP 286.8 298.6 312.7 343.8 306.1 359.9 378.6* 361.8* 370.8* 375.7*
Elow 366.8 339.6 337.2 331.0
Eup 390.4 384.6 406.6 424.7
50 OBS 683.6 595.7 677.1 722.9 786.7 635.0 696.4 649.2 636.7 485.7
EXP 689.3 633.9 666.6 704.5 761.8 656.2 771.5* 811.6* 775.5* 794.9*
Elow 747.5 761.8 705.2 700.4
Eup 795.6 863.0 850.2 898.6
55 OBS 1613.4 1295.0 1206.2 1287.1 1365.5 1341.4 1078.1 1122.8 1044.0 1034.0
EXP 1588.5 1302.4 1209.7 1284.0 1334.6 1396.2 1202.6* 1414.0* 1487.4* 1421.1*
Elow 1165.1 1327.3 1352.7 1252.2
Eup 1240.0 1503.4 1630.7 1606.6
60 OBS 2965.2 2618.3 2142.4 2087.1 2142.6 2098.3 2052.7 1591.3 1580.6 1487.3
EXP 2929.8 2626.4 2174.8 2039.0 2128.5 2140.3 2239.0* 1928.5* 2267.5* 2385.3*
Elow 2169.3 1810.2 2062.2 2101.7
Eup 2308.7 2050.4 2486.0 2696.6
65 OBS 3871.7 4262.7 3882.8 3190.5 2904.2 2964.6 2858.0 2705.4 1964.0 2089.3
EXP 3949.9 4220.8 3821.5 3194.2 2945.2 2974.3 2990.6* 3128.6* 2694.7* 3168.4*
Elow 2897.5 2936.8 2450.7 2791.8
Eup 3083.8 3326.5 2954.4 3581.9
70 OBS 4283.0 5005.1 5247.6 4809.4 4008.7 3661.3 3636.7 3276.0 3073.3 2402.2
EXP 4246.8 4940.7 5332.2 4873.0 4005.8 3573.2 3608.3* 3628.2* 3795.6* 3269.2*
Elow 3496.0 3405.8 3451.9 2880.6
Eup 3720.7 3857.7 4161.4 3695.9
75 OBS 3603.8 4587.1 5510.6 5901.2 5271.3 4343.2 4310.9 3833.4 3561.1 3211.5
EXP 3603.8 4642.3 5454.7 5942.1 5340.7 4247.1 3788.4* 3825.7* 3846.8* 4024.2*
Elow 3670.4 3591.1 3498.4 3545.9
Eup 3906.3 4067.7 4217.5 4549.4
30-79 OBS 1232.9 1263.3 1244.7 1198.6 1129.0 1066.6 1026.0 925.7 825.2 745.4
EXP 1234.9 1266.6 1244.4 1195.8 1128.3 1068.9 1059.6* 1070.5* 1084.5* 1103.7*
Elow 1026.6 1004.8 986.3 972.5
Eup 1092.6 1138.2 1189.1 1247.7
Run by JS Fry on 14-MAY-14
Osmond and Gardner Modelling
Austria Lung Cancers, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value
Extrapolating Model: FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT
Matrix of observed and expected deaths including predictions
1961- 1966- 1971- 1976- 1981- 1986- 1991- 1996- 2001- 2006-
30 - OBS 19.0 18.0 20.0 14.0 13.0 16.0 16.0 19.0 15.0 6.0
EXP 14.6 13.1 19.6 21.6 19.4 22.4 28.0* 30.0* 26.4* 22.9*
CHI 1.359 1.849 0.009 2.649 2.096 1.843 5.121 4.021 4.895 12.449
35 - OBS 44.0 51.0 51.0 56.0 56.0 65.0 52.0 49.0 43.0 36.0
EXP 45.2 47.3 42.7 62.8 67.6 60.0 72.3* 87.5* 93.4* 83.6*
CHI 0.033 0.293 1.633 0.746 1.979 0.414 5.685 16.922 27.212 27.140
40 - OBS 94.0 125.0 140.0 128.0 177.0 207.0 200.0 157.0 122.0 104.0
EXP 99.4 133.6 140.8 125.6 181.7 191.1 175.3* 207.1* 249.0* 269.7*
CHI 0.294 0.552 0.005 0.046 0.120 1.325 3.467 12.136 64.795 101.786
45 - OBS 200.0 249.0 346.0 384.0 325.0 466.0 444.0 407.0 369.0 334.0
EXP 218.7 259.4 349.9 366.9 321.2 455.5 487.4* 444.7* 523.9* 636.6*
CHI 1.602 0.419 0.043 0.800 0.044 0.244 3.863 3.196 45.793 143.811
50 - OBS 745.0 440.0 570.0 773.0 800.0 641.0 860.0 811.0 764.0 676.0
EXP 751.2 468.3 561.1 753.3 774.7 662.4 952.8* 1013.9* 930.5* 1106.4*
CHI 0.051 1.705 0.141 0.517 0.825 0.693 9.031 40.607 29.805 167.421
55 - OBS 1771.0 1331.0 842.0 1019.0 1365.0 1282.0 1041.0 1326.0 1253.0 1202.0
EXP 1743.6 1338.5 844.4 1016.6 1334.1 1334.4 1161.2* 1669.8* 1785.1* 1652.0*
CHI 0.430 0.043 0.007 0.006 0.716 2.057 12.445 70.784 158.603 122.597
60 - OBS 2911.0 2574.0 2001.0 1320.0 1547.0 1915.0 1815.0 1433.0 1765.0 1691.0
EXP 2876.2 2582.0 2031.3 1289.6 1536.9 1953.2 1979.7* 1736.6* 2532.0* 2711.9*
CHI 0.420 0.025 0.452 0.717 0.067 0.749 13.697 53.079 232.345 384.346
65 - OBS 2729.0 3496.0 3221.0 2564.0 1580.0 1886.0 2315.0 2135.0 1620.0 2164.0
EXP 2784.1 3461.6 3170.1 2566.9 1602.3 1892.1 2422.5* 2469.0* 2222.7* 3281.8*
CHI 1.092 0.341 0.816 0.003 0.311 0.020 4.767 45.190 163.426 380.716
70 - OBS 2057.0 2680.0 3279.0 3094.0 2563.0 1605.0 1939.0 2228.0 2095.0 1759.0
EXP 2039.6 2645.5 3331.9 3134.9 2561.2 1566.4 1923.9* 2467.6* 2587.3* 2393.9*
CHI 0.148 0.449 0.839 0.534 0.001 0.954 0.119 23.262 93.689 168.384
75 - OBS 1155.0 1460.0 1948.0 2465.0 2313.0 2005.0 1392.0 1580.0 1916.0 1787.0
EXP 1155.0 1477.6 1928.2 2482.1 2343.5 1960.6 1223.3* 1576.8* 2069.7* 2239.2*
CHI 0.000 0.209 0.203 0.118 0.396 1.005 23.271 0.006 11.415 91.325
30-79 OBS 11725.0 12424.0 12418.0 11817.0 10739.0 10088.0 10074.0 10145.0 9962.0 9759.0
EXP 11727.7 12426.9 12420.0 11820.3 10742.5 10098.1 10426.2* 11703.0* 13020.1* 14398.0*
O/E 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 0.966 0.867 0.765 0.678
CHI SQUARE (LOG)= 2782.6220 ON 40 D.F., P = 0.0000
Run by JS Fry on 14-MAY-14
Osmond and Gardner Modelling
Austria Lung Cancers, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value
Extrapolating Model: FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT
O&G Cohort and Period parameter values
Run by JS Fry on 14-MAY-14
Cohort Period
COHORT & PERIOD VALUES
CALENDAR YEAR 0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1888 1893 1898 1903 1908 1913 1918 1923 1928 1933 1938 1943 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988
Osmond and Gardner Modelling
Austria Lung Cancers, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value
Extrapolating Model: FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT
Observed and fitted rates for selected age groups
Run by JS Fry on 14-MAY-14
Observed: ages 30-34 Observed: ages 40-44 Observed: ages 50-54 Observed: ages 60-64 Observed: ages 70-74
Fitted: ages 30-34 Fitted: ages 40-44 Fitted: ages 50-54 Fitted: ages 60-64 Fitted: ages 70-74
RATE (LOG10 SCALE)
YEAR OF DEATH 0.60
1.30
2.00
2.70
3.40
4.10
1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Osmond and Gardner Modelling
Austria Lung Cancers, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value
Extrapolating Model: FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT
Observed and predicted rates (5 year periods)
30- 35- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60- 65- 70- 75-
1991- OBS 9.4 36.2 160.8 344.9 696.4 1078.1 2052.7 2858.0 3636.7 4310.9
PRE 16.4 50.4 141.0 378.6 771.5 1202.6 2239.0 2990.6 3608.3 3788.4
RES -7.013 -14.126 19.829 -33.706 -75.118 -124.492 -186.241 -132.672 28.376 522.514
1996- OBS 10.5 28.6 109.6 331.1 649.2 1122.8 1591.3 2705.4 3276.0 3833.4
PRE 16.6 51.0 144.5 361.8 811.6 1414.0 1928.5 3128.6 3628.2 3825.7
RES -6.081 -22.443 -34.988 -30.671 -162.423 -291.119 -337.150 -423.262 -352.275 7.737
2001- OBS 9.6 23.8 71.7 261.2 636.7 1044.0 1580.6 1964.0 3073.3 3561.1
PRE 16.8 51.7 146.5 370.8 775.5 1487.4 2267.5 2694.7 3795.6 3846.8
RES -7.250 -27.901 -74.703 -109.634 -138.784 -443.357 -686.876 -730.686 -722.270 -285.678
2006- OBS 4.5 22.5 57.2 197.1 485.7 1034.0 1487.3 2089.3 2402.2 3211.5
PRE 17.0 52.4 148.4 375.7 794.9 1421.1 2385.3 3168.4 3269.2 4024.2
RES -12.574 -29.835 -91.157 -178.575 -309.211 -387.140 -897.959 -1079.169 -867.037 -812.696
Observed and predicted deaths (5 year periods)
30- 35- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60- 65- 70- 75-
1991- OBS 16.0 52.0 200.0 444.0 860.0 1041.0 1815.0 2315.0 1939.0 1392.0
PRE 28.0 72.3 175.3 487.4 952.8 1161.2 1979.7 2422.5 1923.9 1223.3
CHI 5.121 5.685 3.467 3.863 9.031 12.445 13.697 4.767 0.119 23.271
1996- OBS 19.0 49.0 157.0 407.0 811.0 1326.0 1433.0 2135.0 2228.0 1580.0
PRE 30.0 87.5 207.1 444.7 1013.9 1669.8 1736.6 2469.0 2467.6 1576.8
CHI 4.021 16.922 12.136 3.196 40.607 70.784 53.079 45.190 23.262 0.006
2001- OBS 15.0 43.0 122.0 369.0 764.0 1253.0 1765.0 1620.0 2095.0 1916.0
PRE 26.4 93.4 249.0 523.9 930.5 1785.1 2532.0 2222.7 2587.3 2069.7
CHI 4.895 27.212 64.795 45.793 29.805 158.603 232.345 163.426 93.689 11.415
2006- OBS 6.0 36.0 104.0 334.0 676.0 1202.0 1691.0 2164.0 1759.0 1787.0
PRE 22.9 83.6 269.7 636.6 1106.4 1652.0 2711.9 3281.8 2393.9 2239.2
CHI 12.449 27.140 101.786 143.811 167.421 122.597 384.346 380.716 168.384 91.325
Run by JS Fry on 14-MAY-14
Osmond and Gardner Modelling
Austria COPD, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value
Fitting the Age, Period, Cohort Models
Model RSS MRSS DF Factor %Account ChiSq P
AGE-ONLY 389.43 7.64 51 P, C 98.02 2090.50 0.0000
AGE-PERIOD 42.82 0.95 45 Cohort 82.04 227.41 0.0000
AGE-COHORT 214.16 5.95 36 Period 96.41 1143.68 0.0000
PERIOD-COHORT 17.43 0.44 40 Age 55.88 92.65 0.0000
FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT 7.69 0.24 32 40.91 0.1344
AGE-GROUP LOG(AGE-VALUE) AGE-VALUE
30 1.083370 12.116288
35 1.396665 24.926689
40 1.607640 40.517252
45 1.895383 78.592835
50 2.238463 173.166338
55 2.550127 354.916868
60 2.847141 703.300305
65 3.121963 1324.227859
70 3.373022 2360.599893
75 3.608049 4055.547114
PERIOD LOG(PERIOD-VALUE) PERIOD-VALUE
1961 -0.053148 0.884814
1966 0.174609 1.494890
1971 -0.039399 0.913275
1976 -0.087085 0.818304
1981 -0.039544 0.912969
1986 -0.082891 0.826246
COHORT LOG(COHORT-VALUE) COHORT-VALUE
1886 -0.047467 0.896465
1891 -0.050465 0.890298
1896 0.017791 1.041815
1901 0.052819 1.129326
1906 0.033989 1.081406
1911 -0.034628 0.923362
1916 -0.032753 0.927357
1921 -0.042444 0.906893
1926 -0.058442 0.874093
1931 -0.014352 0.967492
1936 -0.035044 0.922477
1941 -0.042471 0.906836
1946 -0.026349 0.941133
1951 -0.039920 0.912179
1956 0.158590 1.440756
Run by JS Fry on 14-MAY-14
Osmond and Gardner Modelling
Austria COPD, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value
Fitting the FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT Model
Matrix of observed and expected deaths and (O-E)**2/E Values
1961- 1966- 1971- 1976- 1981- 1986-
30 - OBS 10.0 15.0 15.0 17.0 10.0 20.0
EXP 11.4 18.5 13.6 12.6 12.4 20.0
CHI 0.2 0.7 0.1 1.5 0.5 0.0
35 - OBS 18.0 33.0 21.0 30.0 32.0 25.0
EXP 22.0 39.9 23.4 24.6 28.1 22.9
CHI 0.7 1.2 0.2 1.2 0.5 0.2
40 - OBS 25.0 57.0 40.0 46.0 44.0 30.0
EXP 28.6 60.4 39.5 33.3 43.4 40.8
CHI 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.9 0.0 2.9
45 - OBS 40.0 81.0 87.0 69.0 75.0 66.0
EXP 49.2 92.6 70.2 66.4 69.5 74.5
CHI 1.7 1.4 4.0 0.1 0.4 1.0
50 - OBS 143.0 186.0 129.0 144.0 152.0 117.0
EXP 154.2 177.3 120.7 132.4 155.5 133.2
CHI 0.8 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.1 2.0
55 - OBS 384.0 480.0 207.0 211.0 287.0 279.0
EXP 372.8 503.5 209.8 208.5 283.1 271.2
CHI 0.3 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2
60 - OBS 711.0 1115.0 556.0 322.0 442.0 435.0
EXP 689.9 1117.7 553.9 337.5 420.4 463.6
CHI 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.1 1.8
65 - OBS 862.0 1869.0 1078.0 813.0 589.0 612.0
EXP 860.4 1833.5 1084.9 804.1 609.9 631.2
CHI 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6
70 - OBS 886.0 1966.0 1501.0 1344.0 1264.0 830.0
EXP 893.1 1968.6 1521.3 1343.9 1272.3 792.9
CHI 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.1 1.7
75 - OBS 1031.0 1725.0 1365.0 1528.0 1755.0 1459.0
EXP 1031.0 1718.0 1364.0 1565.5 1756.9 1428.3
CHI 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.7
Run by JS Fry on 14-MAY-14
Osmond and Gardner Modelling
Austria COPD, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value
Extrapolating Model: FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT
Effects for extending model to project rates to 1991 to 2010
Projections using parameters Log Transformed
Model ChiSq MChiSq DF Factor %Account P
AGE-ONLY 3057.87 76.45 40 P, C 82.07 0.0000
AGE-PERIOD 1714.86 42.87 40 Cohort 68.02 0.0000
AGE-COHORT 366.25 9.16 40 Period -49.74 0.0000
PERIOD-COHORT 564.19 14.10 40 Age 2.80 0.0000
FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT 548.41 13.71 40 0.0000
AGE EFFECT
30 12.116288
35 24.926689
40 40.517252
45 78.592835
50 173.166338
55 354.916868
60 703.300305
65 1324.227859
70 2360.599893
75 4055.547114
PERIOD EFFECT LOWER UPPER
% Period Change 90.5010 87.5010 93.5010
1961 0.884814
1966 1.494890
1971 0.913275
1976 0.818304
1981 0.912969
1986 0.826246
1991 0.747760 0.722973 0.772548
1996 0.676730 0.632608 0.722340
2001 0.612448 0.553539 0.675395
2006 0.554271 0.484352 0.631501
COHORT EFFECT WEIGHT ORIGINAL
1886 0.896465 1.000000
1891 0.890298 2.000000
1896 1.041815 4.000000
1901 1.129326 8.000000
1906 1.081406 16.000000
1911 0.923362 32.000000
1916 0.927357 64.000000
1921 0.906893 128.000000
1926 0.874093 256.000000
1931 0.967492 512.000000
1936 0.922477 1024.000000
1941 0.906836 2048.000000
1946 0.941133 4096.000000
1951 0.912179 8192.000000
1956 0.914787 EXTRAPOLATION 1.440756
1961 0.911844 EXTRAPOLATION
1966 0.908912 EXTRAPOLATION
1971 0.905988 EXTRAPOLATION
1976 0.903074 EXTRAPOLATION
Run by JS Fry on 14-MAY-14
Osmond and Gardner Modelling
Austria COPD, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value
Extrapolating Model: FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT
Matrix of observed and expected rates including predictions (shown by *)
Total over ages standardized using: The 1976 European Standard Population
1961- 1966- 1971- 1976- 1981- 1986- 1991- 1996- 2001- 2006-
30 OBS 9.1 13.5 11.1 12.6 8.1 14.4 5.9 2.8 1.3 1.5
EXP 10.4 16.7 10.0 9.3 10.1 9.2 8.3* 7.5* 6.7* 6.1*
Elow 8.0 7.0 6.1 5.3
Eup 8.5 8.0 7.4 6.9
35 OBS 15.7 29.8 18.8 22.6 24.4 20.5 12.5 11.1 7.7 8.8
EXP 19.3 36.1 21.0 18.5 21.4 18.8 17.1* 15.4* 13.9* 12.5*
Elow 16.5 14.4 12.5 10.9
Eup 17.6 16.4 15.3 14.3
40 OBS 28.4 49.9 36.2 42.3 34.0 23.2 20.1 20.2 14.7 14.3
EXP 32.5 52.9 35.8 30.6 33.5 31.5 27.6* 25.1* 22.6* 20.4*
Elow 26.7 23.4 20.5 17.8
Eup 28.6 26.8 25.0 23.3
45 OBS 52.5 93.2 77.8 64.7 71.5 52.2 40.4 48.0 40.3 41.3
EXP 64.5 106.5 62.7 62.2 66.2 58.9 55.3* 48.5* 44.0* 39.7*
Elow 53.5 45.4 39.8 34.7
Eup 57.1 51.8 48.6 45.3
50 OBS 131.2 251.8 153.2 134.7 149.5 115.9 102.0 88.9 115.0 88.4
EXP 141.5 240.1 143.4 123.9 153.0 132.0 117.4* 110.3* 96.7* 87.8*
Elow 113.5 103.1 87.4 76.7
Eup 121.3 117.7 106.7 100.0
55 OBS 349.8 467.0 296.5 266.5 287.1 291.9 199.9 221.0 203.3 234.8
EXP 339.6 489.9 300.6 263.4 283.2 283.7 244.8* 217.8* 204.6* 179.4*
Elow 236.7 203.6 184.9 156.8
Eup 252.9 232.5 225.6 204.4
60 OBS 724.2 1134.2 595.3 509.1 612.2 476.6 480.7 390.9 435.2 452.1
EXP 702.8 1136.9 593.1 533.7 582.3 507.9 508.8* 439.0* 390.6* 366.9*
Elow 491.9 410.4 353.0 320.6
Eup 525.7 468.6 430.8 418.0
65 OBS 1223.0 2278.9 1299.5 1011.7 1082.6 962.0 995.0 906.0 853.5 795.5
EXP 1220.7 2235.6 1307.8 1000.6 1121.2 992.3 865.5* 867.0* 748.1* 665.6*
Elow 836.8 810.5 676.2 581.6
Eup 894.2 925.4 825.0 758.3
70 OBS 1844.8 3671.6 2402.2 2089.1 1977.0 1893.4 1659.9 1495.4 1811.7 1267.3
EXP 1859.6 3676.4 2434.7 2088.9 1990.0 1808.8 1600.8* 1396.4* 1398.7* 1207.0*
Elow 1547.7 1305.3 1264.2 1054.7
Eup 1653.9 1490.5 1542.5 1375.2
75 OBS 3216.9 5419.6 3861.4 3658.0 3999.6 3160.5 3140.3 2705.2 3066.7 2668.8
EXP 3216.9 5397.5 3858.7 3747.9 4004.0 3094.1 2812.3* 2489.0* 2171.1* 2174.8*
Elow 2719.1 2326.7 1962.3 1900.5
Eup 2905.5 2656.7 2394.2 2477.8
30-79 OBS 440.7 772.9 490.2 431.1 455.6 392.1 365.6 327.2 356.9 310.4
EXP 442.2 773.8 489.7 431.4 455.7 392.3 354.2* 319.7* 290.9* 267.4*
Elow 342.5 298.9 262.9 233.7
Eup 366.0 341.3 320.8 304.7
Run by JS Fry on 14-MAY-14
Osmond and Gardner Modelling
Austria COPD, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value
Extrapolating Model: FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT
Matrix of observed and expected deaths including predictions
1961- 1966- 1971- 1976- 1981- 1986- 1991- 1996- 2001- 2006-
30 - OBS 10.0 15.0 15.0 17.0 10.0 20.0 10.0 5.0 2.0 2.0
EXP 11.4 18.5 13.6 12.6 12.4 12.7 14.1* 13.5* 10.5* 8.1*
CHI 0.162 0.669 0.144 1.545 0.460 4.198 1.191 5.314 6.913 4.631
35 - OBS 18.0 33.0 21.0 30.0 32.0 25.0 18.0 19.0 14.0 14.0
EXP 22.0 39.9 23.4 24.6 28.1 22.9 24.5* 26.4* 25.1* 20.0*
CHI 0.739 1.209 0.248 1.194 0.530 0.183 1.710 2.059 4.891 1.795
40 - OBS 25.0 57.0 40.0 46.0 44.0 30.0 25.0 29.0 25.0 26.0
EXP 28.6 60.4 39.5 33.3 43.4 40.8 34.4* 35.9* 38.5* 37.1*
CHI 0.459 0.194 0.005 4.866 0.007 2.855 2.552 1.341 4.720 3.321
45 - OBS 40.0 81.0 87.0 69.0 75.0 66.0 52.0 59.0 57.0 70.0
EXP 49.2 92.6 70.2 66.4 69.5 74.5 71.2* 59.6* 62.2* 67.3*
CHI 1.712 1.443 4.019 0.102 0.442 0.973 5.176 0.007 0.436 0.108
50 - OBS 143.0 186.0 129.0 144.0 152.0 117.0 126.0 111.0 138.0 123.0
EXP 154.2 177.3 120.7 132.4 155.5 133.2 145.0* 137.8* 116.1* 122.2*
CHI 0.812 0.424 0.567 1.010 0.081 1.980 2.491 5.204 4.136 0.005
55 - OBS 384.0 480.0 207.0 211.0 287.0 279.0 193.0 261.0 244.0 273.0
EXP 372.8 503.5 209.8 208.5 283.1 271.2 236.4* 257.2* 245.5* 208.6*
CHI 0.339 1.097 0.038 0.029 0.053 0.227 7.969 0.056 0.009 19.883
60 - OBS 711.0 1115.0 556.0 322.0 442.0 435.0 425.0 352.0 486.0 514.0
EXP 689.9 1117.7 553.9 337.5 420.4 463.6 449.9* 395.4* 436.2* 417.1*
CHI 0.644 0.007 0.008 0.716 1.105 1.759 1.375 4.757 5.692 22.502
65 - OBS 862.0 1869.0 1078.0 813.0 589.0 612.0 806.0 715.0 704.0 824.0
EXP 860.4 1833.5 1084.9 804.1 609.9 631.2 701.1* 684.2* 617.1* 689.4*
CHI 0.003 0.689 0.044 0.099 0.719 0.587 15.698 1.384 12.237 26.274
70 - OBS 886.0 1966.0 1501.0 1344.0 1264.0 830.0 885.0 1017.0 1235.0 928.0
EXP 893.1 1968.6 1521.3 1343.9 1272.3 792.9 853.5* 949.7* 953.5* 883.8*
CHI 0.056 0.003 0.272 0.000 0.054 1.736 1.162 4.773 83.119 2.208
75 - OBS 1031.0 1725.0 1365.0 1528.0 1755.0 1459.0 1014.0 1115.0 1650.0 1485.0
EXP 1031.0 1718.0 1364.0 1565.5 1756.9 1428.3 908.1* 1025.9* 1168.1* 1210.1*
CHI 0.000 0.029 0.001 0.900 0.002 0.658 12.350 7.744 198.781 62.433
30-79 OBS 4110.0 7527.0 4999.0 4524.0 4650.0 3873.0 3554.0 3683.0 4555.0 4259.0
EXP 4112.6 7530.0 5001.5 4528.8 4651.7 3871.4 3438.1* 3585.5* 3672.8* 3663.8*
O/E 0.999 1.000 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.034 1.027 1.240 1.162
CHI SQUARE (LOG)= 548.4077 ON 40 D.F., P = 0.0000
Run by JS Fry on 14-MAY-14
Osmond and Gardner Modelling
Austria COPD, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value
Extrapolating Model: FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT
O&G Cohort and Period parameter values
Run by JS Fry on 14-MAY-14
Cohort Period
COHORT & PERIOD VALUES
CALENDAR YEAR 0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1888 1893 1898 1903 1908 1913 1918 1923 1928 1933 1938 1943 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988
Osmond and Gardner Modelling
Austria COPD, Males, based on 1961-1990 (UN) Replace last cohort value
Extrapolating Model: FULL AGE-PERIOD-COHORT
Observed and fitted rates for selected age groups
Run by JS Fry on 14-MAY-14
Observed: ages 30-34 Observed: ages 40-44 Observed: ages 50-54 Observed: ages 60-64 Observed: ages 70-74
Fitted: ages 30-34 Fitted: ages 40-44 Fitted: ages 50-54 Fitted: ages 60-64 Fitted: ages 70-74
RATE (LOG10 SCALE)
YEAR OF DEATH 0.10
0.80
1.50
2.20
2.90
3.60
1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Osmond and Gardner Modelling
Aust