The 21st century KPIResource Productivity
Ory ZikVP of Analytics
5-10-2016
What was his KPI? Proteins / calories
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Credit:Orin ZebestCC-BY 2.0
Why did the sapience win?
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Die ersten Menschen, Weltbild Verlag, 2000. ISBN 3-8289-0741-5
Homo erectusWestfälisches Landesmuseum,
Herne, Germany
• The Neanderthals were stronger and had larger brains• Sapience won because of innovation and connectivity
30,000 years later: we dominate the planet
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• Still two forces: connectivity + innovation• No system thinking
http://geographical.co.uk/places/mapping/item/978-human-worlds
Business as usual, we will need three planets
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Source: Global Footprint Network
• Overconsumption, climate change and environmental degradation
Brands has leverage
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Filmed July 2010 at TEDGlobal 2010Jason Clay: How big brands can help save biodiversity
Jason Clay, WWF at TED 2010• Hundreds of companies control 70% of traded commodities between more than a
billion suppliers and nearly 7 billion people
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“There is one and only one social responsibility of business - to use its resources and engage in activities designed to increase profits.”
Source: university of colorado
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Financial vs. Sustainability
“..our last, our only chance to reach a destination that assures the preservation of the earth.”
Source: Kristenbaumlier
Measuring progress becomes a challenge
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CSOCFO
Oil <$30 / barrel
CO2 >400ppm
December 2015 COP21
How to convince the CFO?
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• Growth• Value at risk • Capital efficiency
Source: cafepress
CFO attention (1-5)
Commodity price ‘inflection point’ theory
• 33 commodities equally weighted• Theory: all the reduction in a century was erased in a decade due to scarcity• Practice: difficult to explain recent decline
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Source: GMO
CFO attention1
Internal price of carbon in leading companies
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• The straight line is $125/tonCO2 assuming oil is at $50/barrel and 0.4 tonCO2/barrel• It allows us to see the relative impact of the internal price of carbon on decisions
CFO attention1
Not growing as an option
• Patagonia’s 2011, New York Times ad: “135 liters of water.. warehouse generated nearly 20 pounds of carbon dioxide.. two-thirds its weight in waste”
• Led to 15% growth ever since
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CFO attention0
More CSR reporting is not leading to more insight
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• All inclusive approach: Environmental + Social + Governance• Unclear business metrics and KPIs• Data: Incomplete data (granularity) standards, confidentiality, validation
CFO attention1
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http://www.triplepundit.com/2014/07/despite-big-leaps-csr-still-long-way-go/
No correlation between sustainability and financial performance
Profit
CSR score
CFO attention1
• Challenging to find evidence that convince the CFO that sustainability is core to the business
What is the KPI that can bring the CFO and the CSO together?
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CFO CSO
?
21st century
Resource decoupling: maximize economic growth per resource use
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http://www.unep.org/resourcepanel/decoupling/files/pdf/decoupling_report_english.pdf
• Reduce the amount of resources used to produce financial growth• Develop a KPI that measures the decoupling
Resource productivity: a KPI that measures resource decoupling
• Resource productivity = $ / Resource use• How do we measure the denominator ?
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time
Economic growth Resource use Resource decoupling
timetime
Inflection point
2016?
The most quoted decoupling examples: Innovation, connectivity, and system thinking
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Source: IBM
• And when it happens, it is sudden (~2 years)
Resource Productivity Roadmap Rule #1: avoid value destruction
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Value creation
Value destruction
Resource productivity
Value destruction became crowded lately
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• VW lost $33 billion in valuation in less than 2 weeks• Recall cost $16 -$18 billion• CFO attention at 5 but not for defensive reasons
CFO attention5
Resource Productivity Roadmap: product innovation
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Value creation
Value destruction
Compliance ProductInnovation
Resource productivity
Low emission
A Tesla Moment
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CFO attention5
The Tesla is as green as the electricity charging it
• Tesla is better if charged with low carbon electricity • Only 5% buy Tesla for environmental reasons• Nearly all buyers would ‘green’ to be one of the features
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2015, 49 (22), pp 13692–13698
Resource Productivity Roadmap
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Value creation
Value destruction
Compliance ProductInnovation
ConnectivityResource productivity
Low emission
15% less navigation
errors
Resource Productivity Roadmap
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Value creation
Value destruction
Compliance ProductInnovation
ConnectivityResource productivity Business
model innovation
Low emission
15% less navigation
errors
Cars off the road
Resource Productivity Roadmap
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Value creation
Value destruction
Compliance ProductInnovation
Connectivity System innovation
Resource productivity
Shared and self driving
Business model innovation
Low emission
15% less navigation
errors
Cars off the road
Less cars, less errors and
low emissions
Who would reinvent the system?
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Value creation
Value destruction
Compliance ProductInnovation
Connectivity System innovation
Resource productivity
Shared and self driving
Business model innovation
CFO attention5
?
Resource Productivity is VW's bet back as they return to value creation
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?
• Volkswagen’s CEO: “plans to emphasis digital services and zero-emissions vehicles”
The Telegraph
Rule # 1 avoid value destructionA “Chipotle moment”
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Value creation
Value destruction
Compliance
Product innovation: A Chobani moment
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CFO attention5
https://prezi.com/qfr_gnwvd8tm/chobani/
• Greek Yogurt was 4% of the US Yogurt market in 2008. It is 44% in 2013 • Chobani was launched in 2009 and led the category ever since
Where should we look for the next Chobani moment?
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Value creation
Value destruction
ComplianceResource productivity Product
Innovation
Alternative proteins
Source for alternative proteins: Lux Research, “WhooPea: Plant Sources Are Changing the Protein Landscape”
Where should we look for the next Chobani moment?
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Value creation
Value destruction
ComplianceResource productivity Product
Innovation
Alternative proteins
Connectivity System innovation
Business model innovation
Mostly demand side innovation
Source for alternative proteins: Lux Research, “WhooPea: Plant Sources Are Changing the Protein Landscape”Source for food tech: foodtechconnect quoting www.leonmayer.com
The supply side may be as important
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The supply system may become a global network of plants and growers
• A connected network of growers. Each plant has a unique IP address• Still needs system thinking: energy, water, land, nitrogen• Can it scale using urban water supply?
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Source: OpenAg at MIT media lab
How will farm-servers load the energy and water systems (like server-farms and energy)?
• Server-farms grew from zero to 5% of the US electricity in two decades• What will be the resource demand of farm-servers?• What will be the impact on resources: the water-energy-food nexus?• Need a systems approach
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Source: National Geographic Source: https://www.pinterest.com/pin/180425528796565157/
Server farm Farm server
Israel Innovation Tour
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• 4 days, 14 startups, 8am-10pm agenda• Innovation in a constrained system
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Caesarea
Coal dock
Desalination
Caesarea, Israel March 2016
Roman Aquaduct
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Caesarea
Coal dock
Desalination
1 mile south
Water scarcity drove system thinking
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Desalination Pumping
Coal
20 kWh/kgal
2 kWh/kgal
• Water carrier• Desalination• Drip irrigation
Food as value-added water
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• A crate of oranges ~ cubic meter of water• Israel focus on high-end low-water crops reduced
orange exports
The US water pricing system is not built for scarcity
• The water pricing is ineffective now. On average 25% water losses• Once residential, commercial and agricultural water begins to mix, it will require a
system change
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CFO attention4
California: running out of cheap water
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• The variability in the price of water challenges planning• Land, nitrogen, energy and emissions add additional complications
The highly variable price and value of water in California
CFO attention4
So what should companies do?
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Resource productivity as a KPI: a systems approach
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Model the value chain
Identify hotspots
Benchmark
resources
Implement
innovation
Meat processing
Herd/Calfstage
Stockergrowth
Feedlotfinishing
Corn growth
Water pumping
Soybeangrowth
Electricity
Source of flow diagram: Lux Research 2015, “De-risking protein strategies using a systems approach”
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baseline
Beef - conventional
baseline
Beef - grass fed
baseline
Swine
baseline
Poultry
baseline
Salmon - net pen
baseline
Salmon - marine bag
baseline
Tuna
baseline
Dairy
baseline
Eggs
baseline
Soybean meal
baseline
Canola meal
baseline
Pea meal
baseline
Algae
baseline
Cricket meal
* Normalized by protein content and PDCAAS
The resource productivity of animal, fish, plant and alternative proteins
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9%
56%
5%
Resource productivity of crickets as percentage of beef per unit of digestible protein
• Significant energy consumption• Negligible agricultural water, land use and nutrient load
Optimize ingredient composition within food development
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The impact of various ingredients assuming equal mass
• As we optimize health, safety, cost food developers will be able to optimize resource productivity – per ingredient
The winner in food will deploy system level innovation
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Value creation
Value destruction
Compliance ProductInnovation
Resource productivity Connectivity System
innovationBusiness model innovation
CFO attention5
Analyzing consumption hotspots and mapping replacements
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Model the value chain
Identify hotspots
Benchmark
resources
Implement
innovation
Identify water intensive suppliers in water scarce areas Offer drip irrigation
CFO attention5
Resource Productivity
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• More Chobani moments are coming based on innovation and connectivity• The overlooked opportunity is system thinking on energy, water and land • The first step is resource productivity as a KPI
Lux Research Inc. 100 Franklin Street, 8th Floor Boston, MA 02110 USA Phone: +1 617 502 5300 Fax: +1 617 502 5301 www.luxresearchinc.com
Thank you
Ory ZikVP of [email protected]+1 617 943 3215
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