Orienting Ourselves in Free Fall
“We’re under attack from all sides.”
“So get ready for enormous change.”
Claudio SanchezNPR
Shai ReshefUniversity of the
People
Sebastian Thrun
“In fifty years there will be only ten institutions in the world delivering higher education.
“Udacity has a shot at being one of them.”
Wired MagazineMarch 20, 2012
diffusionoflight.wordpress.com
what we
teach
whom we
teach
how we fund
what we teach
what we teach lawmedicinetheology
agriculturebusinessengineeringteaching
much more
Jobs have become moreintellectually demanding.
lawmedicinetheology
agriculturebusinessengineeringteaching
much more
Jobs have become moreintellectually demanding.
what we teachportion of U.S. jobs requiring at least a two-year degree
197328%
201845%
Source: Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce
“Organizations are looking for employees to use a broader set of skills and have higher levels of learning and knowledge than in the past.”
89%
rising expectations of employers
Source: Raising the Bar, Hart Research Associates
197328%
“Organizations are looking for employees to use a broader set of skills and have higher levels of learning and knowledge than in the past.”
coordinationcomplexity
“Organizations are looking for employees to use a broader set of skills and have higher levels of learning and knowledge than in the past.”
what we teachwage premium for skilled labor
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
37%
49%59%
48%
66%
78% 81%
what we teachwage premium for skilled labor
wage premium for skilled labor
Claudia GoldinLawrence KatzHarvard University
relative change in supply and demand since 1970 2%average annual growth1.5%
average annual growth
81%
89%
whom we teachdemand
81%
whom we teach1970top 26%
2009top 41%
enrollment rates of 18- to 24-year-olds in degree-granting institutions
enrollment by Hispanics, African-Americans, and Asians:
enrollment by students eligible for financial aid:
15% 19%
1976 1990 2009
34%
30%
1976
46%
1990 2009
66%
Source: National Center for Education Statistics
San Diego State
Cal State Long Beach
CSU, Chico
whom we teach
“It’s in the water.
And getting it there is a lot of hard work.”
John HammangAASCU“There is no one
‘magic bullet’ that guarantees success.
“Success instead means aligning people
and programs, and making a collective
commitment to be in it for the long haul.”
how we fundhow we fund
how we fund whom we teach(harder)
what we teach(harder)
what we
teach
whom we
teach
how we fund
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
2010$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers
public appropriation per FTE
tuition and fees per FTE
increasing cost for public students
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20100%
20%
40%
60%
percent of revenue supported by tuition
23.18%
43.15%
increasing cost for public students
how we fund
increasing cost for public students
increasing debt for all students
- higher than previously estimated- increases caused by:
- rising tuition- delayed entry into weak job market- higher interest rates as defaults rise
- could slow housing recovery
Source: Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
how we fund
increasing cost for public students
increasing debt for all students
2009 median expenditures per FTE per institutionSource: Delta Cost Project
$7,821physical plantdebt serviceemployee benefits $15,636
education andrelated expenses
Jane V. WellmanDelta Cost Project
National Association of System Heads
Restructuring costs means making “permanent reductions in spending in areas that don’t contribute to performance.”
“The derived Education and Related Expense category is our single most important cost metric.”
structural constraints
Richard Vedder
Center for College Affordability
and Productivity
“The public simply
will not continue to
provide billions of
dollars without an
adequate answer to
the question of
what we are getting
in return.”
national exasperation
increasing cost for public students
increasing debt for all students
Jane V. WellmanDelta Cost Project
National Association of System Heads
structural constraints
“Higher education can't be a luxury. It's an economic imperative that
every family in America should be able to afford.”
“Let me put colleges and universities on notice: If you can't stop tuition
from going up, the funding you get from taxpayers will go down.”
State of the Union, January 24, 2012
how we fund
how we fund
what we
teach
whom we
teach
sources of inflexibility
sources of inflexibility
1. fear of falling
“There are few bottom-linemeasures analogous to profitor return on investment forassessing an institution’sstanding or establishing its competitive advantage.
“Under these conditions, the managementof image becomes particularly important.”
Adrianna KazarUniversity of Southern California
“There are few bottom-linemeasures analogous to profitor return on investment forassessing an institution’sstanding or establishing its competitive advantage.
“Under these conditions, the managementof image becomes particularly important.”
Sophia Gilliat-RayCardiff University
“Older universities represent continuity, stability, prestige,
longevity, traditions, and 'reputation'.
“However, the ethos that results from these
assumptions and ideas are implicitly (and sometimes
even explicitly) hostile . . .”
sources of inflexibility
1. fear of falling
4. student mobility
3. rampant automation
2. unchecked growth
50,000
20,000,000fall 2006 cohort
2,803,472
67% never transferred
24% transferred
once
5%3%
Source: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center
sources of inflexibility
1. fear of falling
4. student mobility
3. rampant automation
2. unchecked growth
sources of inflexibility:
fear of falling
unchecked growth
rampant automation
student mobility
Unsustainablestatus quo:
what we teach
whom we teach
how we fundincreasing cost for publicsincreasing debt for allstructural constraintsnational exasperation
Blombos Cave excavationSouth Africa, 75,000 BCE
Christopher HenshilwoodInstitute of Human Evolution
University of the WitwatersrandJohannesburg
“For me, what is really important is here, for the first time, really, ever, we have evidence that people can store information outside of the human brain.”
store information outside of the human brain
constants in education:
- practical- outcomes-oriented- social
learning communities
undergraduate research
service learning
learning communities
High-Impact Practices
undergraduate research
service learning - practical
- outcomes-oriented- social
learning communities
undergraduate research
service learning - practical
- outcomes-oriented- social
traditional academic records
folioCI
learning communities
undergraduate research
service learning - practical
- outcomes-oriented- social
traditional academic records
F So J Se0-30 30-60 60-90 90-120
-90-120 - 60-90 - 30-60 - 0-30
folioCI
Orienting Ourselves in Free Fall
1. pick three convictions
- practical- outcomes-oriented- social
1. pick three convictions2. condone innovation
Orienting Ourselves in Free Fall
1. pick three convictions2. condone innovation3. network
1. pick three convictions2. condone innovation3. network
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