Imagining Open Education 2030:
Towards a new ecosystem for Higher Education?
Yves Punie
Christine Redecker
Riina Vuorikari
Jonatan Castaño Muñoz
EADTU Keynote, "The Open and Flexible Higher Education Conference 2013", Paris, 23-24 October 2013
European Commission, Joint Research Centre
Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS):
Research institute supporting EU policy-making on socio-economic, scientific and/or technological issues
ICT for Learning and Skills
– Research on "educational transformation in a digital world", in support of (mainly) DG Education and Culture
– Themes:– Mainstreaming and scaling-up ICT-enabled innovation for learning– Digital Competence for Education and Employability – Opening up Education, support and follow-up COM 2013 (654
final), 25 Sept 2013
Structure
I. Introduction and context on "past and future" of HE and Opening Up Education
II. A short review of existing scenarios on the future of HE
III. Results from IPTS foresight on Open Education 2030
IV. Final remarks
Thinking about the future…
• Newborns of today will be 17 years old in 2030
• but will they "graduate" in 2035?
• We expect the world to be somehow different by then…
Demography Globalisation Immigration Technology
Drivers
Labour market trends & demands
Labour Market
Personalisation
Collaboration
Informalisation
Tailormade & targeted Active & constructive Motivating & engaging
Learner-centred
Sociallearning
Lifewidelearning
Peer-learning Sharing & collaborating In communities
Anywhere, anytime Blending virtual & real Combining
sources/providers
Initiative, resilienceResponsibility
Risk-taking, creativity
Social skills
Learning skills
Personal skills
Education & Training New ways of learningNew skills
Managing, organisingMeta-cognitive skills
Failing forward
Team-, networkingEmpathy, compassion
Co-constructing
ICT Trends
Social networks Games Mobiles OER
Augmented Reality Data mining
3D virtual worlds LMS
Electronic tutors
ePortfoliose-books
Learning analytics
?? ?
?
Future of Learning (IPTS, 2011)
2012 Year of the MOOC
« Educational change… now more than ever…? »
• 2013 Year of the anti-MOOC…
Disruptive….
or sustaining innovation…?
Bower & Christensen, 1995
MOOC hype cycle
A very slow tsunami: projection of the Hype Cycle for MOOCs by Jonathan Tapson, University of Western Sydney http://pandodaily.com/2013/09/13/moocs-and-the-gartner-hype-cycle-a-very-slow-tsunami/
Distance Universities
open content (1998)
MIT OCW (2001)
Creative Commons
(2002)
1st cMOOC (2008) 1st Stanford
xMOOC (2011)
Open Universities (OUUK, OUNL, UOC…
Increasing number of Open Access papers & journals
UK Finch report
Cert
ifica
tion
Open badges
1st EU MOOC platform
1985 1990-2000
OERu
2001-2002 2006-2011 2012 2013
OU
OER
OA
MOOCs
History of Open Education
Open Education/ classrooms
1960's–1970's19th century
Alternative & Progressive education
Computer Assisted
Instruction (1970)
FreeSoftware
/GNU Budapest Open Access Initiative
Open Schools
OpenLearn (OUUK)
Digital learning
resources
OER Def. (UNESCO
2002)
A global shift
towards "openness"
The range of "Opens"
Carlota Perez, Tomorrow's Capitalism: GROWTH AFTER THE FINANCIAL CRISIS, Presentation at the Institute for Public Policy Research, June 2009
The forces of disruption vs. sustaining are at play;
See also: Yuan & Powell, eLearning Papers, 33, May 2013
High "potential" for disrupting HE…
Change "will" occur…
II. A short review of existing scenarios on the future of HE
Open Networking…
Among institutions, scholars, students, industry; internationally - Voluntary cooperation but with hierarchy and prestige
Student autonomy – modular choices within the network (curricula and degree)
Serving Local Communities…
High # of local institutes vs. small # of elite HE institutions that are globally linked
Public funding, local funding; Focus on teaching and research serving local needs
New Public Responsibility…
Publicly funded, autonomous system with high accountability
Tuition fees; High competition for public research funds & specialisation in teaching and research
Higher Education Inc…
Global competition, focus on core business (teaching vs research) and fierce competition for best students and top academics
OECD CERI (2006): 4 scenarios for HE to 2030
The return of the binary divide in 2025…
A few top league research (25) globally networked vs a higher number (70) and more diverse group of teaching/research universities; High access fees
The grand design of the visible hand…
Public sector takes over control with a three tier system:
- super-six research incentive universities
- a larger # of full and comprehensive Grand Universities
- a significant # of private for profit institutes.
The future of English Higher Education: Two scenarios on the changing landscape, Leadership Foundation for Higher Education, May 2012
Imagining the future of HE in 2022, B. Alexander, Educause Review, Dec 2011
Learning at a distance…
Online learning at scale and sporadic local f2f contacts
The serpent digest a large mammal…
Little change, but fully encompassing the digital world
Campus Weirding…
Fully open, distributed and decentralised model with high # of MOOCs
2016 Scenario guide to effective tertiary education in New Zealand, Sept 2012, Ako Aotearoa, National Centre for Tertiary Teaching Excellence
"Imagining Open Education 2030 and the potential of OER" • A series of 3 sector workshops: Lifelong Learning (29-30/04), School
Education (28-29/05) and Higher Education (6-7/06) involving circa 50 experts
• Call for vision papers: 97 submissions! (49 HE, 31 SE & 17 LLL)
• Aim was NOT to predict but to develop shared visions and imagine different possible futures as a tool for strategic decision making, based on identifying, understanding and awareness raising around on key challenges, opportunities and possible threats.
• 2030 is set to force us to think out of the box and go beyond 2020…
IPTS foresight
Step 1: Identifying the critical issues
Step 2: Identifying the (two) key tensions
Step 3: Describing the emerging scenarios
Step 4: Milestones & Roadmap
Low X High X
Low Y
High Y
-/+
-/-
+/+
+/-
Scenario A
Scenario C
Scenario B
Scenario D
Workshop Methodology Open Education 2030
Guided discovery
Self-guided discovery
Guidedjourney
Self-guided journey
Guided Learning context Self-guided
Learner initiated
Externally set
goals
Learn
ing
Key tensions Open Education 2030
Learning conditions Open Education 2030
More open, flexible, fluid but all at the same time…?
When
How What
Where
Learner initiated
Externally set
Guided Learning context Self-guided
goals
Learn
ing
When
How What
Where
When
How What
WhereWhen
How What
Where
Closed
Scenario differences Open Education 2030
Selection
Assessment
Research
Content
Research
Content
Guidance
Assessment
Certification
Sele
ctio
n
2013
2030
Certification
Guidance
Consequences for HE Unbundlinginstitutions E.g R. McGreal, Shirkey.com; Barber et all 2013
Learner initiated
Externallyset
Learning context Self-guided
goals
Learn
ing
Scenario differences Open Education 2030
Guided
Guided
Guided journey
Where(closed)
Provide Learning Spaces (physical, online, local, global) and a strong sense of community
When Anytime but scheduled (= guidance)
What(closed)
- Meet externally set learning goals / curricula- Content quality assurance
HowFocus on teaching (e.g. MOOCs) and/or assessment and/or certification
Externallyset
Key role for institutions:• Guidance• Selection• Quality assurance
Learning context
Learn
ing
goals
Guided
Guided discovery
Where(closed)
- Provide Learning Spaces (physical, online, local, global) and a loose sense of community- Networks for research and innovation
When Anytime
What- Inquiry-based subjects- Post-graduate level subjects- Research and Innovation skills
How- Inquiry-based, exploratory- citizen science- E.g SPOCS & TORQUE
Learner initiated
Key role for institutions:• Lifelong Learning guidance• Meet diverse learner needs• Foster excellence• Knowledge and research
Learning context
Learn
ing
goals
Self-guided journey
Where Anywhere
When Anytime
What(closed)
- Meet externally set learning goals / curricula- Content quality assurance
How
Pick & Choose:- High-quality, instructionally designed learning materials from anywhere- Certification of prior learning- "Skills Portfolio"
Externallyset
Self-guided
Key role for institutions:• Quality content creation and
verification• Credit transfer • External assessment
Learning context
Learn
ing
goals
Self-guided discovery
Where- Anywhere- Pre-requisite: Abundance! - Informal learning networks
When Anytime
What - Personal goals- Creation of new knowledge
How
- OER; open data, MOOCs, SPOCS, TORQUE, any type of learning- Citizen science- hyper-connected
Self-guided
Key role for institutions:• Content production (diversity)• Learning platforms• Research & Innovation
Learning context
Learn
ing
goals
Learner initiated
IV. Final remarks (1/2) Open Education 2030
OE 2030 scenarios are not mutually exclusive!
• Preference for a scenario depends on ability, competences, needs and interest of both individuals and society
• "Self-guided discovery" scenario (most open) is NOT always the ideal
• Fluidity allows for moving between the learning scenarios
• OE 2030 still requires guidance and certain restrictions
[Draft – Work in progress – more final version end 2013]
[Paper: "OE 20130: Planning the future of Adult Learning in Europe", Open Learning: The Journal of Open, Distance and e-Learning]
Guided discovery
Learning café
Open discovery Learning for Life
Protected journey
Open training
Self-directed journey
My learning certified
Learner initiated
Externally set
Guided Learning setting Self-guided
& Curricula
Content
Adult Learning scenarios Open Education 2030
Final remarks (2/2) Open Education 2030
For educational institutions:
At the core of OE 2030 are unbundling, abundance, networking, flexibility and personalised learning
Learning services will not necessary be for free, under an open license and accessible to all
HE institutions will not disappear but need to "redefine" their role in OE landscape – existing funding and quality mechanisms not sustainable
Policies:
• need to cater for # more versions of opening and closing
• Knowledge and education as a "public good"
• EC policy response: "Opening up Education" COM 2013 (654 final), 25 Sept 2013 featuring 23 Actions
Thank you for your attention!
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