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Biopharma Laboratories Ltd:Forecasting Sales and
Managing Inventory
Prepared For:
Md. IftekharAlam (Course Instructor)
Course: Operations Management
Prepared By:
Group-3
ShanilShazab, ZR-01
NavidSarwar ZR-57
Tashfeen F. Saeed ZR-64
BBA 16th Batch
Date of Submission:
November 28th, 2010
Institute of Business Administration (IBA)
University of Dhaka (DU)
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November 28, 2010
Md. IftekharAlam
Course Instructor
Institute of Business Administration
University of Dhaka
Dear Sir:
Here is the Term Paper on forecasting and inventory management that you asked us to prepare as a
course requirement.
This Term paper contains our study of Biopharma Laboratories Ltd. in terms of Sales Forecast for
Year 2011 for Raw Materials Inventory Management. Our results reflect the forecasted yearly sale
for 2011 under the most suitable method called Time Series Decomposition and the optimum order
strategy in terms of Economic Order Quantity and Reorder Point for each Raw Material.
Preparing this report has been an important experience for us, as we have successfully applied the
techniques of forecasting and inventory management which was one of the objectives of our
coursework.
Please note that this report has been prepared under your supervision. Under no circumstances, will
this report be produced for any other IBA course. No part of this report will be shared or republished
without your authorization.
Sincerely,
_____________________________
Shanil Shazab, ZR 01
_____________________________
Navid Sarwar, ZR-57
_____________________________
Tashfeen Ferdous Saeed, ZR-64
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Table of Contents1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 3
1.1 Background ................................................................................................................................... 3
1.2 Identification of Inventory ............................................................................................................ 3
1.3 Method of Data Collection ............................................................................................................ 3
1.4 Assumptions .................................................................................................................................. 3
1.5 Limitations ..................................................................................................................................... 4
2. Forecasting ...................................................................................................................................... 4
2.1 Simple Average ....................................................................................................................... 4
2.2 Weighted average ................................................................................................................... 5
2.3 Simple Moving Average .......................................................................................................... 7
2.4 Weighted Moving Average ..................................................................................................... 8
2.5 Exponential Smoothing ........................................................................................................... 9
2.6 Linear Regression .................................................................................................................. 11
2.7 Time Series Decomposition .................................................................................................. 12
2.8 Comparison of CV........................................................................................................................ 13
3. Inventory Management ................................................................................................................ 13
3.1 Obtaining the annual demand (Z) ............................................................................................... 14
3.2 Obtaining the carrying cost ......................................................................................................... 15
3.3 Obtaining the ordering cost ........................................................................................................ 16
3.4 Obtaining the Lead time, Reorder point and Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) ......................... 16
3.5 Optimum Ordering Strategy ....................................................................................................... 17
4. Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................... 17
5. Appendix ....................................................................................................................................... 19
5.1 Simple Average ........................................................................................................................... 19
5.2 Weighted Average................................................................................................................. 20
5.3 Simple Moving Average ........................................................................................................ 22
5.4 Weighted Moving Average ................................................................................................... 24
5.5 Exponential Smoothing ......................................................................................................... 26
5.6 Linear Regression .................................................................................................................. 28
5.7 Time Series Decomposition .................................................................................................. 30
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1. Introduction
This report has been compiled based on Biopharma Laboratories Ltd. and therefore this section
includes the background, identification of major inventory, methodologies, assumptions and
limitations of the report.
1.1 Background
Biopharma Laboratories Ltd. is a reputed pharmaceutical manufacturing company based in
Bangladesh producing a wide range of biological pharmaceutical products in different dosage forms
and presentations including tablets, capsules, syrups, suspensions, ointments and injectable
preparations, among others.The vision of this company is to be regarded globally as a quality
pharmaceutical manufacturer through the best quality pharmaceutical products. By virtue of the
highest quality of drugs, the company has already obtained the confidence and trust of doctors andpatients all over Bangladesh and earned an excellent reputation in the market through introducing
new dosage forms in many therapeutic areas.
1.2 Identification of Inventory
An interview with the top management of Biopharma Laboratories Ltd. revealed the business
process of the company. According to the management the critical raw materials are imported from
foreign manufacturers. Several raw materials are then assembled in the manufacturing plant to
develop the product.
Raw material are continuously transformed into finished goods in the manufacturing process, hence
there is no work-in-progress. This report focus on the raw materials required to manufacture
Omeprazole, which is sold under the brand name Inprocapsule.
1.3 Method of Data Collection
Primary data was collected from a scheduled interview with the production manager. Secondary
data required for the report was assembled from a variety of sources including the company
website, sales records of the company and the text books for the course.
1.4 Assumptions
Lead Time is constant.
Ordering Cost is fixed.
Ordering Cost is distributed equally among all the raw materials.
Carrying Cost is distributed equally among all the raw materials.
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1.5 Limitations
According to the management the lead time varies to a large extent and hence calculations of the
reorder point may lack practical usefulness.
2. Forecasting
Forecasting has been done using the Simple Average, Weighted Average, Simple Moving Average,
Weighted Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Linear Regression and Time Series
Decomposition.Error Values for each method (in terms of MAD, Bias, MAPE and CV) and details of
each method along with calculations are given below:
2.1 Simple Average
Date Sales (Taka) Forecast
Jan-08 305,212
Feb-08 308,921 305,212
Mar-08 312,326 307,067
Apr-08 323,952 308,820
May-08 326,432 312,603
Jun-08 331,930 315,369
Jul-08 339,042 318,129
Aug-08 345,019 321,116
Sep-08 352,312 324,104
Oct-08 385,010 327,238
Nov-08 389,669 333,016
Dec-08 388,689 338,166
Jan-09 370,214 342,376
Feb-09 365,442 344,518
Mar-09 371,276 346,012
Apr-09 385,098 347,696
May-09 389,566350,034
Jun-09 383,784 352,359
Jul-09 389,655 354,105
Aug-09 386,489 355,976
Sep-09 396,568 357,502
Oct-09 398,656 359,362
Nov-09 395,888 361,148
Dec-09 399,669 362,659
Jan-10 429,856 364,201
Feb-10 430,685 366,827
Mar-10 455,663 369,283
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Feb-09 365,442 357,279
Mar-09 371,276 358,299
Apr-09 385,098 359,741
May-09 389,566 362,724
Jun-09 383,784365,550
Jul-09 389,655 367,286
Aug-09 386,489 369,523
Sep-09 396,568 371,065
Oct-09 398,656 373,191
Nov-09 395,888 375,405
Dec-09 399,669 377,044
Jan-10 429,856 378,720
Feb-10 430,685 382,653
Mar-10 455,663 386,084
Apr-10 426,595 390,723
May-10 469,255 393,197
Jun-10 469,873 398,104
Jul-10 466,350 402,453
Aug-10 483,665 406,447
Sep-10 490,358 410,989
Oct-10 482,560 415,398
Nov-10 493,559 419,236
Dec-10 505,565 423,254
Jan-11 427,475
Feb-11 427,709
Mar-11 427,920
Apr-11 428,111
May-11 428,298
Jun-11 428,467
Jul-11 428,621
Aug-11 428,771
Sep-11 428,908
Oct-11 429,034Nov-11 429,158
Dec-11 429,271
MAD BIAS MAPE CV
36,670 36,670 0.08546316 9.1417%
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2.3 Simple Moving Average
Date Sales (Taka) Forecast
Jan-08 305,212Feb-08 308,921
Mar-08 312,326
Apr-08 323,952 308,820
May-08 326,432 315,066
Jun-08 331,930 320,903
Jul-08 339,042 327,438
Aug-08 345,019 332,468
Sep-08 352,312 338,664
Oct-08 385,010 345,458Nov-08 389,669 360,780
Dec-08 388,689 375,664
Jan-09 370,214 387,789
Feb-09 365,442 382,857
Mar-09 371,276 374,782
Apr-09 385,098 368,977
May-09 389,566 373,939
Jun-09 383,784 381,980
Jul-09 389,655 386,149
Aug-09 386,489 387,668
Sep-09 396,568 386,643
Oct-09 398,656 390,904
Nov-09 395,888 393,904
Dec-09 399,669 397,037
Jan-10 429,856 398,071
Feb-10 430,685 408,471
Mar-10 455,663 420,070
Apr-10 426,595 438,735
May-10 469,255 437,648
Jun-10 469,873 450,504
Jul-10 466,350 455,241
Aug-10 483,665 468,493
Sep-10 490,358 473,296
Oct-10 482,560 480,124
Nov-10 493,559 485,528
Dec-10 505,565 488,826
Jan-11 493,895
Feb-11 497,673Mar-11 499,044
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Apr-11 496,871
May-11 497,863
Jun-11 497,926
Jul-11 497,553
Aug-11 497,781
Sep-11 497,753
Oct-11 497,696
Nov-11 497,743
Dec-11 497,731
MAD BIAS MAPE CV
14,518 11,377 3.572483% 3.570319%
2.4 Weighted Moving Average
Date Sales (Taka) Forecast
Jan-08 305,212
Feb-08 308,921
Mar-08 312,326
Apr-08 323,952 309,882
May-08 326,432 317,458
Jun-08 331,930 322,867
Jul-08 339,042 328,685
Aug-08 345,019 334,386
Sep-08 352,312 340,608
Oct-08 385,010 347,470
Nov-08 389,669 367,202
Dec-08 388,689 380,800
Jan-09 370,214 388,247
Feb-09 365,442 379,648
Mar-09 371,276 371,523
Apr-09 385,098 369,313
May-09 389,566 377,020
Jun-09 383,784 384,568
Jul-09 389,655 385,781
Aug-09 386,489 387,876
Sep-09 396,568 386,898
Oct-09 398,656 392,162
Nov-09 395,888 395,596
Dec-09 399,669 396,854
Jan-10 429,856 398,332
Feb-10 430,685 414,006
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Mar-10 455,663 424,233
Apr-10 426,595 443,008
May-10 469,255 436,133
Jun-10 469,873 453,739
Jul-10 466,350461,032
Aug-10 483,665 467,988
Sep-10 490,358 475,712
Oct-10 482,560 483,549
Nov-10 493,559 485,120
Dec-10 505,565 489,619
Jan-11 497,362
Feb-11 499,062
Mar-11 499,853
Apr-11 499,118
May-11 499,327
Jun-11 499,370
Jul-11 499,307
Aug-11 499,330
Sep-11 499,331
Oct-11 499,326
Nov-11 499,328
Dec-11 499,328
MAD BIAS MAPE CV
12,883 9,728 3.159219% 3.168375%
2.5 Exponential Smoothing
Date Sales (Taka) Forecast
Jan-08 305,212 359,546
Feb-08 308,921 337,812
Mar-08 312,326 326,256
Apr-08 323,952 320,684
May-08 326,432 321,991
Jun-08 331,930 323,767
Jul-08 339,042 327,032
Aug-08 345,019 331,836
Sep-08 352,312 337,109
Oct-08 385,010 343,190
Nov-08 389,669 359,918
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MAD BIAS MAPE CV
15,881 11,785 3.915464% 3.732739%
Dec-08 388,689 371,819
Jan-09 370,214 378,567
Feb-09 365,442 375,226
Mar-09 371,276 371,312
Apr-09 385,098371,298
May-09 389,566 376,818
Jun-09 383,784 381,917
Jul-09 389,655 382,664
Aug-09 386,489 385,460
Sep-09 396,568 385,872
Oct-09 398,656 390,150
Nov-09 395,888 393,553
Dec-09 399,669 394,487
Jan-10 429,856 396,560
Feb-10 430,685 409,878
Mar-10 455,663 418,201
Apr-10 426,595 433,186
May-10 469,255 430,549
Jun-10 469,873 446,032
Jul-10 466,350 455,568
Aug-10 483,665 459,881
Sep-10 490,358 469,395
Oct-10 482,560 477,780
Nov-10 493,559 479,692
Dec-10 505,565 485,239
Jan-11 493,369
Feb-11 493,370
Mar-11 493,370
Apr-11 493,370
May-11 493,370
Jun-11 493,370
Jul-11 493,370
Aug-11 493,370Sep-11 493,370
Oct-11 493,370
Nov-11 493,370
Dec-11 493,370
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2.6 Linear Regression
Date Sales (Taka) Forecast
Jan-08 305,212 306,037
Feb-08 308,921 311,319
Mar-08 312,326 316,600
Apr-08 323,952 321,882
May-08 326,432 327,164
Jun-08 331,930 332,445
Jul-08 339,042 337,727
Aug-08 345,019 343,009
Sep-08 352,312 348,291
Oct-08 385,010 353,572
Nov-08 389,669 358,854
Dec-08 388,689 364,136
Jan-09 370,214 369,417
Feb-09 365,442 374,699
Mar-09 371,276 379,981
Apr-09 385,098 385,262
May-09 389,566 390,544
Jun-09 383,784 395,826
Jul-09 389,655 401,108
Aug-09 386,489 406,389Sep-09 396,568 411,671
Oct-09 398,656 416,953
Nov-09 395,888 422,234
Dec-09 399,669 427,516
Jan-10 429,856 432,798
Feb-10 430,685 438,080
Mar-10 455,663 443,361
Apr-10 426,595 448,643
May-10 469,255 453,925
Jun-10 469,873 459,206
Jul-10 466,350 464,488
Aug-10 483,665 469,770
Sep-10 490,358 475,051
Oct-10 482,560 480,333
Nov-10 493,559 485,615
Dec-10 505,565 490,897
Jan-11 496,178
Feb-11 501,460
Mar-11 506,742
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MAD BIAS MAPE CV
10,623 0 2.603924% 2.666066%
2.7 Time Series Decomposition
Year Quarter QuarterlySales
Forecast
2008 1 926,459 927,428
2 982,314 979,283
3 1,036,373 1,026,207
4 1,163,368 1,091,310
2009 1 1,106,932 1,129,468
2 1,158,448 1,179,268
3 1,172,712 1,207,690
4 1,194,213 1,267,474
2010 1 1,316,204 1,320,229
2 1,365,723 1,370,370
3 1,440,373 1,395,778
4 1,481,684 1,457,475
2011 1 1,510,9892 1,561,472
3 1,583,867
4 1,647,476
MAD BIAS MAPE CV
26,274 -598 2.159527% 2.197962%
Apr-11 512,023
May-11 517,305
Jun-11 522,587
Jul-11 527,869
Aug-11 533,150
Sep-11 538,432
Oct-11 543,714
Nov-11 548,995
Dec-11 554,277
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Assumptions used for the calculations:
The demand which was forecasted using the time series decomposition method, is held
constant
No shortage (stock outs) is allowed
Lead time for the receipt of order is constant and independent of demand
The order quantity is received all at once
A more detailed brief on how the calculations were performed have been shown below.
3.1 Obtaining the annual demand (Z)
In order to calculate this, the total demand of the product for 2011 was obtained. The time series
decomposition method was used to forecast the sales of 2011. The annual demand of the raw
material was deduced from the total sales of 2011. The table below shows how the annual demand
of the number of Omeprazole boxes was obtained.
Annual Demand for Omeprazole (BDT) 6036042.76
Market Price of Omeprazole (1 box with 20
tablets)
140
No. of units sold (Box) 43114.59114
Name of Raw
Material
Annual Demand
(Z) in grams
Ordering
Cost/Order (BDT)
Carrying Cost Per
Raw Material
(C*Cc) in BDT
Lead
Time
(days)
EOQ (units
in grams)
Reorder Point
(units in grams)
Omeprazole
Pallet (8.5%)
34491.67292 11491.66667 0.0125 30 251831 2835
EHG (Empty
Hearth Gelatin)
Shell
30180.2138 11491.66667 0.014285714 12 220352 992
Inner Carton 1940.156601 11491.66667 0.222222222 10 14165 53
Blister Foil 2155.729557 11491.66667 0.2 10 15739 59
Aluminum Foil 29102.34902 11491.66667 0.014814815 10 212482 797
Leaflet 3449.167292 11491.66667 0.125 5 25183 47
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The economic order of quantity is determined using Annual Demand of Raw Material (Z), Ordering
Cost (Cr) and Carrying Cost.
3.5 Optimum Ordering Strategy
Name of Raw Material EOQ (X) units in grams Reorder Point (R*) units in grams
Omeprazole Pallet (8.5%) 251831 2835
EHG (Empty Hearth Gelatin) Shell 220352 992
Inner Carton 14165 53
Blister Foil 15739 59
Aluminum Foil 212482 797
Leaflet 25183 47
The basic interpretation of the data is illustrated below:
Name of Raw Material Interpretation
Omeprazole Pallet
(8.5%)
The operating doctrine would be to order 251831 grams when the stocks
on hand reaches 2835 grams
EHG (Empty Hearth
Gelatin) Shell
The operating doctrine would be to order 220352 grams when the stocks
on hand reaches 992 grams
Inner Carton The operating doctrine would be to order 14165 grams when the stocks
on hand reaches 53 grams
Blister Foil The operating doctrine would be to order 15739 grams when the stocks
on hand reaches 59 grams
Aluminum Foil The operating doctrine would be to order 212482 grams when the stocks
on hand reaches 797 grams
Leaflet The operating doctrine would be to order 25183 grams when the stocks
on hand reaches 47 grams
4. ConclusionOur study reflects the possible forecasted sales figures and optimum order strategy for Biopharma
Laboratories Ltd. These results and strategies can provide a handy reference for pre-strategies and
decision making.
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Seven different forecasting methods were used to calculate future sales for 2011. According to the
error estimates under each method, CV was lowest for Time Series Decomposition method, leading
us to deduce that this would be the most accurate method of forecasting for Biopharma
Laboratories Ltd.
The lead time was variable based on the type of raw material. The reorder point is thus at different
levels of the inventory. According to the management, this was a better method to reflect the true
reorder points.
Similarly, the order strategy has been developed under fixed lead time and fixed ordering cost
assumptions. Slight changes in these costs would not affect strategy drastically in real life.
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5. Appendix
All the detailed calculations under each forecasting method are provided below along with the
relevant graphs and figures:
5.1 Simple Average
Date Sales (Taka) Forecast Di-Fi |Di-Fi| |Di-Fi|/Di
Jan-08 305,212
Feb-08 308,921 305,212 3,709 3,709 0.012006306
Mar-08 312,326 307,067 5,260 5,260 0.016839776
Apr-08 323,952 308,820 15,132 15,132 0.046711653
May-08 326,432 312,603 13,829 13,829 0.042364872
Jun-08 331,930 315,369 16,561 16,561 0.049894255
Jul-08 339,042 318,129 20,913 20,913 0.061683115
Aug-08 345,019 321,116 23,903 23,903 0.069279
Sep-08 352,312 324,104 28,208 28,208 0.080064687
Oct-08 385,010 327,238 57,772 57,772 0.150052091
Nov-08 389,669 333,016 56,653 56,653 0.145388522
Dec-08 388,689 338,166 50,523 50,523 0.129983331
Jan-09 370,214 342,376 27,838 27,838 0.075193897
Feb-09 365,442 344,518 20,924 20,924 0.057257955Mar-09 371,276 346,012 25,264 25,264 0.068046028
Apr-09 385,098 347,696 37,402 37,402 0.097122291
May-09 389,566 350,034 39,532 39,532 0.101477028
Jun-09 383,784 352,359 31,425 31,425 0.081880923
Jul-09 389,655 354,105 35,550 35,550 0.091233983
Aug-09 386,489 355,976 30,513 30,513 0.078948526
Sep-09 396,568 357,502 39,066 39,066 0.09851047
Oct-09 398,656 359,362 39,294 39,294 0.098565705
Nov-09 395,888 361,148 34,740 34,740 0.087751403
Dec-09 399,669 362,659 37,010 37,010 0.092602389
Jan-10 429,856 364,201 65,655 65,655 0.15273768
Feb-10 430,685 366,827 63,858 63,858 0.148270778
Mar-10 455,663 369,283 86,380 86,380 0.189569755
Apr-10 426,595 372,482 54,113 54,113 0.126847869
May-10 469,255 374,415 94,840 94,840 0.202107748
Jun-10 469,873 377,685 92,188 92,188 0.196197109
Jul-10 466,350 380,758 85,592 85,592 0.183535542
Aug-10 483,665 383,519 100,146 100,146 0.20705607
Sep-10 490,358 386,649 103,709 103,709 0.211496945
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Oct-10 482,560 389,791 92,769 92,769 0.192242447
Nov-10 493,559 392,520 101,039 101,039 0.2047152
Dec-10 505,565 395,407 110,158 110,158 0.21789127
Jan-11 410,882 398,467
Feb-11 410,882 398,802
Mar-11 410,882 399,120
Apr-11 410,882 399,422
May-11 410,882 399,708
Jun-11 410,882 399,981
Jul-11 410,882 400,240
Aug-11 410,882 400,488
Sep-11 410,882 400,724
Oct-11 410,882 400,950
Nov-11 410,882 401,166
Dec-11 401,372
5.2 Weighted Average
Date Sales (Taka) Weight Weight*Sales Forecast Di-Fi |Di-Fi| |Di-Fi|/Di
Jan-08 305,212 1 305,212
Feb-08 308,921 1 308,921 305,212 3,709 3,709 0.012006306
Mar-08 312,326 1 312,326 307,067 5,260 5,260 0.016839776
Apr-08 323,952 2 647,904 308,820 15,132 15,132 0.046711653
May-08 326,432 2 652,864 314,873 11,559 11,559 0.035411357
Jun-08 331,930 2 663,860 318,175 13,755 13,755 0.041438599
Jul-08 339,042 3 1,017,126 321,232 17,810 17,810 0.052530693
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
J a n / 0 8
A p r / 0 8
J u l / 0 8
O c t / 0 8
J a n / 0 9
A p r / 0 9
J u l / 0 9
O c t / 0 9
J a n / 1 0
A p r / 1 0
J u l / 1 0
O c t / 1 0
J a n / 1 1
A p r / 1 1
J u l / 1 1
O c t / 1 1
Sales (Taka)
Forecast
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5.3 Simple Moving Average
Date Sales (Taka) Forecast Di-Fi |Di-Fi| |Di-Fi|/Di
Jan-08 305,212
Feb-08 308,921
Mar-08 312,326
Apr-08 323,952 308,820 15,132 15,132 0.046711653
May-08 326,432 315,066 11,366 11,366 0.034817869
Jun-08 331,930 320,903 11,027 11,027 0.033219856Jul-08 339,042 327,438 11,604 11,604 0.034225848
Aug-08 345,019 332,468 12,551 12,551 0.036377707
Sep-08 352,312 338,664 13,648 13,648 0.038739337
Oct-08 385,010 345,458 39,552 39,552 0.102730665
Nov-08 389,669 360,780 28,889 28,889 0.074136425
Dec-08 388,689 375,664 13,025 13,025 0.033510939
Jan-09 370,214 387,789 -17,575 17,575 0.047473443
Feb-09 365,442 382,857 -17,415 17,415 0.047655533
Mar-09 371,276 374,782 -3,506 3,506 0.009442212
Apr-09 385,098 368,977 16,121 16,121 0.041861206
May-09 389,566 373,939 15,627 15,627 0.040114726
Jun-09 383,784 381,980 1,804 1,804 0.004700561
Jul-09 389,655 386,149 3,506 3,506 0.008996848
Aug-09 386,489 387,668 -1,179 1,179 0.003051402
Sep-09 396,568 386,643 9,925 9,925 0.025028074
Oct-09 398,656 390,904 7,752 7,752 0.019445336
Nov-09 395,888 393,904 1,984 1,984 0.005010676
Dec-09 399,669 397,037 2,632 2,632 0.006584615
Jan-10 429,856 398,071 31,785 31,785 0.073943367
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
J a n / 0 8
M a r / 0 8
M a y / 0 8
J u l / 0 8
S e p / 0 8
N o v / 0 8
J a n / 0 9
M a r / 0 9
M a y / 0 9
J u l / 0 9
S e p / 0 9
N o v / 0 9
J a n / 1 0
M a r / 1 0
M a y / 1 0
J u l / 1 0
S e p / 1 0
N o v / 1 0
J a n / 1 1
M a r / 1 1
M a y / 1 1
J u l / 1 1
S e p / 1 1
N o v / 1 1
Sales (Taka)
Forecast
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23
Feb-10 430,685 408,471 22,214 22,214 0.0515783
Mar-10 455,663 420,070 35,593 35,593 0.078112552
Apr-10 426,595 438,735 -12,140 12,140 0.028457124
May-10 469,255 437,648 31,607 31,607 0.067356412
Jun-10 469,873450,504 19,369 19,369 0.041221068
Jul-10 466,350 455,241 11,109 11,109 0.023821164
Aug-10 483,665 468,493 15,172 15,172 0.031369509
Sep-10 490,358 473,296 17,062 17,062 0.034794987
Oct-10 482,560 480,124 2,436 2,436 0.005047386
Nov-10 493,559 485,528 8,031 8,031 0.016272286
Dec-10 505,565 488,826 16,739 16,739 0.033110151
Jan-11 493,895 493,895
Feb-11 497,673 497,673
Mar-11 499,044 499,044
Apr-11 496,871 496,871
May-11 497,863 497,863
Jun-11 497,926 497,926
Jul-11 497,553 497,553
Aug-11 497,781 497,781
Sep-11 497,753 497,753
Oct-11 497,696 497,696
Nov-11 497,743 497,743
Dec-11 497,731
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
J a n / 0 8
M a r / 0 8
M a y / 0 8
J u l / 0 8
S e p / 0 8
N o v / 0 8
J a n / 0 9
M a r / 0 9
M a y / 0 9
J u l / 0 9
S e p / 0 9
N o v / 0 9
J a n / 1 0
M a r / 1 0
M a y / 1 0
J u l / 1 0
S e p / 1 0
N o v / 1 0
J a n / 1 1
M a r / 1 1
M a y / 1 1
J u l / 1 1
S e p / 1 1
N o v / 1 1
Sales (Taka)
Forecast
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24
5.4 Weighted Moving Average
Date Sales (Taka) Forecast Di-Fi |Di-Fi| |Di-Fi|/Di
Jan-08 305,212
Feb-08 308,921
Mar-08 312,326
Apr-08 323,952 309,882 14,070 14,070 0.04343329
May-08 326,432 317,458 8,974 8,974 0.02749118
Jun-08 331,930 322,867 9,063 9,063 0.02730455
Jul-08 339,042 328,685 10,357 10,357 0.03054784
Aug-08 345,019 334,386 10,633 10,633 0.03081743
Sep-08 352,312 340,608 11,704 11,704 0.03322027
Oct-08 385,010 347,470 37,540 37,540 0.0975037
Nov-08 389,669 367,202 22,467 22,467 0.0576556
Dec-08 388,689 380,800 7,889 7,889 0.02029669
Jan-09 370,214 388,247 -18,033 18,033 0.04871021
Feb-09 365,442 379,648 -14,206 14,206 0.03887211
Mar-09 371,276 371,523 -247 247 0.00066527
Apr-09 385,098 369,313 15,785 15,785 0.04098853
May-09 389,566 377,020 12,546 12,546 0.03220456
Jun-09 383,784 384,568 -784 784 0.00204177
Jul-09 389,655 385,781 3,874 3,874 0.0099411
Aug-09 386,489 387,876 -1,387 1,387 0.00358846Sep-09 396,568 386,898 9,670 9,670 0.02438472
Oct-09 398,656 392,162 6,494 6,494 0.01629049
Nov-09 395,888 395,596 292 292 0.00073708
Dec-09 399,669 396,854 2,815 2,815 0.00704233
Jan-10 429,856 398,332 31,524 31,524 0.07333595
Feb-10 430,685 414,006 16,679 16,679 0.03872598
Mar-10 455,663 424,233 31,430 31,430 0.0689762
Apr-10 426,595 443,008 -16,413 16,413 0.0384749
May-10 469,255 436,133 33,122 33,122 0.07058337
Jun-10 469,873 453,739 16,134 16,134 0.03433779
Jul-10 466,350 461,032 5,318 5,318 0.01140345
Aug-10 483,665 467,988 15,677 15,677 0.03241314
Sep-10 490,358 475,712 14,646 14,646 0.02986777
Oct-10 482,560 483,549 -989 989 0.00204845
Nov-10 493,559 485,120 8,439 8,439 0.01709745
Dec-10 505,565 489,619 15,946 15,946 0.03154075
Jan-11 497,362 497,362
Feb-11 499,062 499,062
Mar-11 499,853 499,853
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25
Apr-11 499,118 499,118
May-11 499,327 499,327
Jun-11 499,370 499,370
Jul-11 499,307 499,307
Aug-11 499,330499,330
Sep-11 499,331 499,331
Oct-11 499,326 499,326
Nov-11 499,328 499,328
Dec-11 499,328
Weight
t-3 0.2
t-2 0.3
t-1 0.5
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
J a n / 0 8
A p r / 0 8
J u l / 0 8
O c t / 0 8
J a n / 0 9
A p r / 0 9
J u l / 0 9
O c t / 0 9
J a n / 1 0
A p r / 1 0
J u l / 1 0
O c t / 1 0
J a n / 1 1
A p r / 1 1
J u l / 1 1
O c t / 1 1
Sales
(Taka)
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26
5.5 Exponential Smoothing
Date Sales (Taka) Forecast Di-Fi |Di-Fi| |Di-Fi|/Di
Jan-08 305,212 359,546 -54,334 54,334 0.178020523
Feb-08 308,921 337,812 -28,891 28,891 0.093523587
Mar-08 312,326 326,256 -13,930 13,930 0.044600321
Apr-08 323,952 320,684 3,268 3,268 0.010088211
May-08 326,432 321,991 4,441 4,441 0.013604235
Jun-08 331,930 323,767 8,163 8,163 0.024591072
Jul-08 339,042 327,032 12,010 12,010 0.035421891
Aug-08 345,019 331,836 13,183 13,183 0.038208636
Sep-08 352,312 337,109 15,203 15,203 0.043151023
Oct-08 385,010 343,190 41,820 41,820 0.108619449
Nov-08 389,669 359,918 29,751 29,751 0.076348758
Dec-08 388,689 371,819 16,870 16,870 0.043403458
Jan-09 370,214 378,567 -8,353 8,353 0.022561902
Feb-09 365,442 375,226 -9,784 9,784 0.026772071
Mar-09 371,276 371,312 -36 36 9.74572E-05
Apr-09 385,098 371,298 13,800 13,800 0.035835787
May-09 389,566 376,818 12,748 12,748 0.032724041
Jun-09 383,784 381,917 1,867 1,867 0.004864466
Jul-09 389,655 382,664 6,991 6,991 0.017941878
Aug-09 386,489 385,460 1,029 1,029 0.002661617Sep-09 396,568 385,872 10,696 10,696 0.026971948
Oct-09 398,656 390,150 8,506 8,506 0.021336006
Nov-09 395,888 393,553 2,335 2,335 0.005899234
Dec-09 399,669 394,487 5,182 5,182 0.012966384
Jan-10 429,856 396,560 33,296 33,296 0.077459328
Feb-10 430,685 409,878 20,807 20,807 0.048310979
Mar-10 455,663 418,201 37,462 37,462 0.082214462
Apr-10 426,595 433,186 -6,591 6,591 0.015449658
May-10 469,255 430,549 38,706 38,706 0.082482982
Jun-10 469,873 446,032 23,841 23,841 0.050739947
Jul-10 466,350 455,568 10,782 10,782 0.023119543
Aug-10 483,665 459,881 23,784 23,784 0.049174696
Sep-10 490,358 469,395 20,963 20,963 0.042751311
Oct-10 482,560 477,780 4,780 4,780 0.009905646
Nov-10 493,559 479,692 13,867 13,867 0.028096015
Dec-10 505,565 485,239 20,326 20,326 0.040204968
Jan-11 493,370 493,369
Feb-11 493,370 493,370
Mar-11 493,370 493,370
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28
5.6 Linear Regression
Date Sales (Taka) Period Forecast Di-Fi |Di-Fi| |Di-Fi|/Di
Jan-08 305,212 1 306,037 -825 825 0.0027027
Feb-08 308,921 2 311,319 -2,398 2,398 0.007761215
Mar-08 312,326 3 316,600 -4,274 4,274 0.013685406
Apr-08 323,952 4 321,882 2,070 2,070 0.006389792
May-08 326,432 5 327,164 -732 732 0.00224157
Jun-08 331,930 6 332,445 -515 515 0.001552815
Jul-08 339,042 7 337,727 1,315 1,315 0.003878186
Aug-08 345,019 8 343,009 2,010 2,010 0.005826236
Sep-08 352,312 9 348,291 4,021 4,021 0.011414474
Oct-08 385,010 10 353,572 31,438 31,438 0.081654373
Nov-08 389,669 11 358,854 30,815 30,815 0.079080051
Dec-08 388,689 12 364,136 24,553 24,553 0.063169625
Jan-09 370,214 13 369,417 797 797 0.002151816
Feb-09 365,442 14 374,699 -9,257 9,257 0.02533117
Mar-09 371,276 15 379,981 -8,705 8,705 0.023445575
Apr-09 385,098 16 385,262 -164 164 0.000427126
May-09 389,566 17 390,544 -978 978 0.002510977
Jun-09 383,784 18 395,826 -12,042 12,042 0.031376756
Jul-09 389,655 19 401,108 -11,453 11,453 0.029391649
Aug-09 386,489 20 406,389 -19,900 19,900 0.051489975Sep-09 396,568 21 411,671 -15,103 15,103 0.0380843
Oct-09 398,656 22 416,953 -18,297 18,297 0.045896012
Nov-09 395,888 23 422,234 -26,346 26,346 0.066550203
Dec-09 399,669 24 427,516 -27,847 27,847 0.069675488
Jan-10 429,856 25 432,798 -2,942 2,942 0.006843777
Feb-10 430,685 26 438,080 -7,395 7,395 0.017169264
Mar-10 455,663 27 443,361 12,302 12,302 0.026997473
Apr-10 426,595 28 448,643 -22,048 22,048 0.051683579
May-10 469,255 29 453,925 15,330 15,330 0.032669525
Jun-10 469,873 30 459,206 10,667 10,667 0.022701096
Jul-10 466,350 31 464,488 1,862 1,862 0.003992551
Aug-10 483,665 32 469,770 13,895 13,895 0.028729017
Sep-10 490,358 33 475,051 15,307 15,307 0.031214978
Oct-10 482,560 34 480,333 2,227 2,227 0.004614573
Nov-10 493,559 35 485,615 7,944 7,944 0.016095547
Dec-10 505,565 36 490,897 14,668 14,668 0.029013868
Jan-11 37 496,178
Feb-11 38 501,460
Mar-11 39 506,742
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29
Apr-11 40 512,023
May-11 41 517,305
Jun-11 42 522,587
Jul-11 43 527,869
Aug-11 44 533,150
Sep-11 45 538,432
Oct-11 46 543,714
Nov-11 47 548,995
Dec-11 48 554,277
Slope 5281.70592
Intercept 300755.1905
Correlation 0.96825127
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
J a n / 0
8
M a r / 0
8
M a y / 0
8
J u l / 0
8
S e p / 0
8
N o v / 0
8
J a n / 0
9
M a r / 0
9
M a y / 0
9
J u l / 0
9
S e p / 0
9
N o v / 0
9
J a n / 1
0
M a r / 1
0
M a y / 1
0
J u l / 1
0
S e p / 1
0
N o v / 1
0
J a n / 1
1
M a r / 1
1
M a y / 1
1
J u l / 1
1
S e p / 1
1
N o v / 1
1
Sales (Taka)
Forecast
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5.7 Time Series Decomposition
Year Quarter
Period
QuarterlySales
ExpectedAverage
Sales
Seasonality
Index
AverageIndexPer
Quarter
Forecast Di-Fi |Di-Fi| |Di-Fi|/Di
2008 1 1 926,459 934,328 0.99 0.99 927,428 -969 969 0.001045482
2 2 982,314 981,796 1.00 1.00 979,283 3,031 3,031 0.003085923
3 3 1,036,373 1,029,264 1.01 1.00 1,026,207 10,166 10,166 0.009808832
4 4 1,163,368 1,076,731 1.08 1.01 1,091,310 72,058 72,058 0.061938702
2009 1 5 1,106,932 1,124,199 0.98 1.00 1,129,468 -22,536 22,536 0.020359222
2 6 1,158,448 1,171,666 0.99 1.01 1,179,268 -20,820 20,820 0.017972054
3 7 1,172,712 1,219,134 0.96 0.99 1,207,690 -34,978 34,978 0.029826709
4 8 1,194,213 1,266,602 0.94 1.00 1,267,474 -73,261 73,261 0.061346478
2010 1 9 1,316,204 1,314,069 1.00 1.00 1,320,229 -4,025 4,025 0.003057876
2 10 1,365,723 1,361,537 1.00 1.01 1,370,370 -4,647 4,647 0.003402606
3 11 1,440,373 1,409,005 1.02 0.99 1,395,778 44,595 44,595 0.030960473
4 12 1,481,684 1,456,472 1.02 1.00 1,457,475 24,209 24,209 0.016338828
2011 1 13 1,503,940 1.00 1,510,989 -1,510,989 1,510,989
2 14 1,551,407 1.01 1,561,472 -1,561,472 1,561,472
3 15 1,598,875 0.99 1,583,867 -1,583,867 1,583,867
4 16 1,646,343 1.00 1,647,476 -1,647,476 1,647,476
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
Quarterly Sales
Forecast