Development of a national strategy for adaptation to climate change adverse
impacts in Cyprus
CYPADAPT
LIFE10 ENV/CY/000723
Report on observed changes and
responses to climate change worldwide
and in Cyprus
DELIVERABLE 1.1
Authors: Mike Petrakis, Christos Giannakopoulos, Giannis Lemesios
National Observatory of Athens, Greece
Observed Changes and Responses to Climate Change Worldwide and in Cyprus
2012
Acknowledgements
This report was produced under co-finance of the European financial instrument for the Environment (LIFE+) as the first Deliverable (D1.1) of the first Action (Action 1) of Project “CYPADAPT” (LIFE10ENV/CY/000723) during the implementation of its first Activity (Activity 1.a) on the “Observed changes and responses to climate change worldwide and in Cyprus”. The CYPADAPT team would like to acknowledge the European financial instrument for the Environment (LIFE+) for the financial support. Disclaimer
The information included herein is legal and true to the best possible knowledge of the
authors, as it is the product of the utilization and synthesis of the referenced sources, for
which the authors cannot be held accountable.
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Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................ 1
1 Review on the observed changes and responses to climate change worldwide ... 2
1.1 Introduction to Global Climate Change ..................................................................... 2
1.2 Temperature rise ....................................................................................................... 3
1.3 Melting Ice – Snow .................................................................................................... 7
1.4 Sea-level Rise ........................................................................................................... 10
1.5 Precipitation ............................................................................................................ 11
1.6 Extreme weather events: heatwave, drought, flood, hurricane ............................. 13
1.7 Conclusions .............................................................................................................. 15
References .................................................................................................................... 15
2 Review of the observed changes and responses to climate change in Cyprus .... 17
2.1 20th century climate change in the Eastern Mediterranean ................................... 17
2.2 Climate of Cyprus .................................................................................................... 19
2.3 Recent climate change in Cyprus ............................................................................ 19
2.3.1 Temperature .................................................................................................... 19
2.3.2 Precipitation .................................................................................................... 24
2.3.3 Evapotranspiration .......................................................................................... 27
2.4 Conclusions .............................................................................................................. 28
References .................................................................................................................... 29
List of Figures Figure 1-1: Increase of carbon dioxide (left), methane (middle) and nitrous oxide (right)
concentration in the atmosphere from 1800 till today. The increase of carbon
dioxide is from 278 ppm (pre-industrial era) to 379 ppm (today). The
corresponding increase of the methane is from 715 ppb to 1774 ppb, and finally
nitrous oxide, the increase is from 270 ppb to 319 ppb (IPCC, 2007) .................. 2
Figure 1-2: Observed changes in global mean surface temperature of the atmosphere (IPCC,
2007) ..................................................................................................................... 3
Figure 1-3: Annual (left) and decadal (right) variations in the land-surface average
temperature (Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, 2011) ..................... 4
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Figure 1-4: Maps showing the decadal average changes in the land temperature field
(Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, 2011) ........................................... 4
Figure 1-5: Warming trends 1976 – 2000 (UNEP, 2005) ........................................................... 5
Figure 1-6: The global warming can only be explained by using models which take into
account both human and natural pressures (IPCC, 2007) .................................... 6
Figure 1-7: Increase in Global Ocean Heat Content from the surface to 700m depth for the
period 1955 – 2011 ............................................................................................... 6
Figure 1-8: Ocean heat content from 0 m – 700 m depth from 1955 (top) compared with
2011 (bottom) (NOAA-NODC, 2011) ..................................................................... 7
Figure 1-9: Northern Hemisphere snow cover decrease during March – April (IPCC, 2007) .... 8
Figure 1-10: Changes in sea ice extent in the Northern Hemisphere (A) and Southern
Hemisphere (B) based on microwave satellite data (IPCC, 2007) ........................ 8
Figure 1-11: Annual mean and cumulative changes in the thickness of ice for the period 1961
– 2005 (NSIDC, 2008) ............................................................................................ 9
Figure 1-12: 1941-2004 comparison: Glacier Bay National Park and Reserve's White Thunder
Ridge as seen on August 13, 1941 (left) and August 31, 2004 (right) (USGS, 2004)
.............................................................................................................................. 9
Figure 1-13: 1928-2000 comparison: These photos of the South Cascade Glacier in the
Washington Cascade Mountains show dramatic retreat between 1928 and 2000
(USGS) ................................................................................................................. 10
Figure 1-14: Increase in global average sea level as measured by observations (grey dots) and
satellite data (red line) (IPCC, 2007) ................................................................... 10
Figure 1-15: Trend of sea level change worldwide for the period 1993 to 2008 (NASA, 2008)
............................................................................................................................ 11
Figure 1-16: Global trends with regard to changes in the annual precipitation for the period
1901 to 2005 (top) and for 1979 to 2005 (bottom) using the GHCN precipitation
data from NCDC. For the gray areas, data are not available to draw conclusions
about trends (IPCC, 2007) ................................................................................... 13
Figure 2-1: Mean satellite remote sensing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) data from 1996
until 2011 ............................................................................................................ 17
Figure 2-2: Annual satellite sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Levantine basin
from 1996-2011. Annual anomalies are calculated by removing the overall mean
from each year. Positive anomalies indicate higher than average SST values,
while negative anomalies indicate lower than average SSTs. ............................ 18
Figure 2-3: Observed changes in the annual mean air temperature (oC) from 1892 till 2010 in
Nicosia ................................................................................................................. 19
Figure 2-4: Observed changes in the annual mean air temperature (oC) from 1903 till 2010 in
Lemesos .............................................................................................................. 20
Figure 2-5: Annual mean air maximum (red line) and minimum (blue line) temperature for
the Nicosia station from 1892 till 2010............................................................... 21
Figure 2-6: Annual mean air maximum (red line) and minimum (blue line) temperature for
the Lemesos station from 1903 till 2010 ............................................................ 21
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Figure 2-7: Number of days with temperature 40oC or higher from Nicosia station for the
period 1961 - 2010 .............................................................................................. 22
Figure 2-8: Number of days with temperatures less than or equal to 0oC from Nicosia station
for the period 1961 - 2010 .................................................................................. 22
Figure 2-9: Increase in the number of warm nights in Cyprus as it testified by stations’
records at Nicosia (1976 – 2000), Lemesos (1976 – 2006), Larnaca (1977 –
2007), Pafos (1983 – 2007), Prodromos (1976 – 2000) and Saittas (1976 – 2000)
............................................................................................................................ 23
Figure 2-10: Spatial mean annual temperature distribution for period 1981 – 1990 (A) in
contrast with the respective for period 2001 – 2008 (B) ................................... 24
Figure 2-11: Annual average precipitation (mm) in Cyprus from hydrological year 1901-02 till
2007-08 ............................................................................................................... 25
Figure 2-12: Decrease of annual mean precipitation in Cyprus for the period 1905 to 2005 25
Figure 2-13: Water Stress Index among European countries. Cyprus ranks first .................... 26
Figure 2-14: Increase in the highest amounts of rainfall in 1 hour for the period 1971 – 2007
in contrast with the respective for the period 1930 – 1970 ............................... 27
Figure 2-15: Increasing trend in annual evapotranspiration as it testified by records at Pano
Amiantos station (1976 – 2006) and Akrotiri station (1986 – 2006) .................. 28
List of Tables Table 1-1: Contribution of different sources on total budget of the global mean sea level
change ................................................................................................................. 11
Table 1-2: Changes in extremes for phenomena over the specified region and period (IPCC,
2007) ................................................................................................................... 14
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Executive Summary
This report presents an update of the changes due to the increase in greenhouse gas
concentration in the atmosphere observed globally and in Cyprus.
Global mean surface temperature has risen by 0.74°C ± 0.18°C over the last 100 years (1906
– 2005). Moreover, eleven of the twelve hottest years since temperature observations
began occurred between 1995 and 2006. Greater warming has been observed over land
than over the ocean, and the changes of warming over time are only simulated by models
that include both natural and anthropogenic forcing. During the period 1961 to 2003 the
temperature of the oceans worldwide has increased by 0.10oC from the surface up to 700m
depth. Satellite observations of snow cover during the period 1966 - 2005 showed that it
declines each month except November and December with a stepwise drop of 5% in the
annual mean in the late 1980s. Regarding sea ice, satellite observations in the Arctic show a
decrease of 2.7 ± 0.6% per decade in the average annual rate of coverage since 1978. In the
20th century, the average sea level rise was 1.7 ± 0.5 mm per year. The total 20th-century
rise is estimated to be 0.17 m. Precipitation data present a high natural variability and it is
difficult to reach conclusions whether precipitation changes are due to climate change or
due to natural processes.
Cyprus lies at the eastern end of the Mediterranean Sea and experiences mild winters and
hot dry summers. The average daytime temperature in winter ranges from 12–15oC. In
summer, the average maximum temperature in coastal regions is 32◦C. Further inland, the
maximum temperature often reaches 40◦C. The wet season extends from November to
March, with most (approx. 60%) of the rain falling between December and February.
Meteorological observations for the period 1892–2010, show an increase in the annual
mean air temperature of the atmosphere of the order of 1.4oC in Nicosia and 2.3oC in
Lemesos. The number of hot days and warm nights has increased whereas the number of
days with temperatures less than or equal to 0oC has greatly declined. The annual average
precipitation has fallen from 559 mm (1901–1930) to 463 mm (1971-2000), a decrease of
17%. Conversely, there has been an increase in heavy rainfall which falls in 1 hour for the
period 1930–2007. Evapotranspiration has increased by 60-80 mm in the period 1976-2006.
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1 Review on the observed changes and responses to climate change worldwide
1.1 Introduction to Global Climate Change
Climate change or global warming as otherwise called, is considered not only by scientists
but now also by citizens worldwide as one of the major problems that the planet and the
environment is facing nowadays. A survey conducted in the U.S. universities Yale and George
Mason (Leiserowitz, 2011) found that 57% of people surveyed believe that global warming is
real and alarming. Where Europe is concerned, the results of a recent Eurobarometer survey
(European Commission, 2011) showed that 51% of Europeans maintain that the main
problem currently is not the world economic recession, but climate change!
The changes occurring today in the global climate come from the uncontrolled burning of
fossil fuels since the Industrial Revolution to today, which led to a huge increase in gas
concentration in the atmosphere, mainly carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous
oxide (N2O) (Fig. 1-1). The change of the atmosphere’s composition due to human activity
has contributed to global warming and the inevitable rise in temperature experienced by the
societies nowadays.
Anthropogenic global warming not only has serious environmental impacts on Earth such as
the cryosphere (glaciers melting, snow, permafrost, etc.), sea level rise, extreme weather
events (high-intensity rainfall, drought, frequent and more severe typhoons - cyclones, etc.),
but also economic and social impacts such as the destruction of coastal zones,
environmental migration, declining of water resources, degradation of agricultural land due
to desertification etc.
Figure 1-1: Increase of carbon dioxide (left), methane (middle) and nitrous oxide (right) concentration in the atmosphere from 1800 till today. The increase of carbon dioxide is from 278 ppm (pre-industrial era) to 379 ppm (today). The corresponding increase of the
methane is from 715 ppb to 1774 ppb, and finally nitrous oxide, the increase is from 270 ppb to 319 ppb (IPCC, 2007)
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1.2 Temperature rise
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) global mean
surface temperature has risen by 0.74°C ± 0.18°C over the last 100 years (1906 – 2005) (Fig.
1-2). Also, the rate of temperature increase over the last 50 years is almost double the
respective over the last 100 years (0.13°C ± 0.03°C vs. 0.07°C ± 0.02°C per decade).
Figure 1-2: Observed changes in global mean surface temperature of the atmosphere (IPCC, 2007)
In addition, Jones and Moberg (2003) calculated the increase in average temperature of
the atmosphere of the continental regions of the world during the 20th century to 0.78oC
per 100 years. Although the increase was not constant throughout the 20th century*, the
last upward trend in temperature is statistically significant at a confidence level of 95% in
almost all residential areas of the planet. Also, the decade 1995 - 2005 was the warmest
of the last 500 years (WMO, 2006).
Furthermore, according to the IPCC (2007), 2005 was the warmest year ever recorded
since 1850 when the instrumental record of air temperature began. The second hottest
year was 1998 while 2002, 2003 and 2004 were respectively the third, fourth and fifth
warmest years. Moreover, eleven of the twelve hottest years since temperature
observations began occurred between 1995 and 2006.
Very important are also the results of the research team at the UC Berkeley (Rohde et al.,
2011), which used and compared 1.6 billion temperature records from 1800 to 2010 from
around the world and concluded that from 1950 until today the average temperature of
Earth has risen by 0.911 ± 0.042oC. The results are shown schematically in the following
diagrams (Fig. 1-3).
* Appeared
mainly in the
period 1920-
1945 and in 1975
until today.
Observed cooling
of the
atmosphere from
1945 to 1975
was probably
due to sun
obscuration from
anthropogenic
atmospheric
suspensions.
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Figure 1-3: Annual (left) and decadal (right) variations in the land-surface average temperature (Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, 2011)
Figure 1-4 shows the decadal average changes in the land temperature field. In the upper
plot, the comparison is drawn between the average temperature in 1900 to 1910 and the
average temperature in 2000 to 2010. In the lower plot, the same comparison is made but
using the interval 1960 to 1970 as the starting point. It is evident that warming is occurring
over all continents but it is more intense at high latitudes and less intense over southern
South America.
Figure 1-4: Maps showing the decadal average changes in the land temperature field (Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, 2011)
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Furthermore, Figure 1-5 shows that air temperature increase is occurring both over land and
oceans but is more intense over land. Also, as mentioned above, northern hemisphere is
affected more strongly than the south.
Figure 1-5: Warming trends 1976 – 2000 (UNEP, 2005)
Finally, as Figure 1-6 shows, the observed patterns of warming, including greater warming
over land than over the ocean, and their changes over time, are only simulated by models
that include both natural (solar activity and volcanoes) and anthropogenic forcing (burning
of fossil fuels).
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Figure 1-6: The global warming can only be explained by using models which take into account both human and natural pressures (IPCC, 2007)
As far as oceans are concerned, an increase is observed in the atmosphere over the oceans
which results in the rise of their temperature. According to IPCC (2007), during the period
1961 to 2003 the temperature of the oceans worldwide has increased by 0.10oC from the
surface up to 700m depth. Furthermore, the results of investigations of the National
Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) (2012) show a continuous increase in the heat content of oceans for
the period 1955 – 2011 from 0 m up to 700 m depth (Fig.1-7).
Figure 1-7: Increase in Global Ocean Heat Content from the surface to 700m depth for the period 1955 – 2011
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Additionally, Figure 1-8 testifies the undoubted increase of global ocean heat content in our
days as it shows the spatial distribution of heat content for the upper 700m of the world
oceans during 2011 in contrast to the respective in 1955.
Figure 1-8: Ocean heat content from 0 m – 700 m depth from 1955 (top) compared with 2011 (bottom) (NOAA-NODC, 2011)
1.3 Melting Ice – Snow
As mentioned above, the significant warming of the atmosphere observed today affects
significantly the cryosphere of the planet, i.e its surface that is covered with permanent
snow and/or ice. IPCC (2007) results show that snow cover has decreased in most areas of
the world, especially in Northern Hemisphere during spring and summer (Fig. 1-9). In
addition, in the Northern Hemisphere, satellite observations of snow cover during the period
1966 - 2005 showed that it declines each month except November and December with a
stepwise drop of 5% in the annual mean in the late 1980s (IPCC, 2007).
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Figure 1-9: Northern Hemisphere snow cover decrease during March – April (IPCC, 2007)
Regarding sea ice, results of satellite observations in the Arctic show a decrease of 2.7 ±
0.6% per decade in the average annual rate of coverage since 1978 (Fig. 1-10A). During
summer the coverage reduction increases and reaches a rate of 7.4 ± 2.4% since 1979 (IPCC,
2007). In the Southern Hemisphere, the few long records mostly show either decreases or
no changes in the past 40 years or more (Fig. 1-10B).
Figure 1-10: Changes in sea ice extent in the Northern Hemisphere (A) and Southern Hemisphere (B) based on microwave satellite data (IPCC, 2007)
A
B
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With regard to glaciers, IPCC (2007) states that the reduction of their mass is around 0.5 ±
0.18 mm/yr of sea level equivalent during the period 1961 to 2004 and 0.77 ± 0.22 mm/yr
during the period 1991 to 2004.
In addition, according to the National Center for Snow and Ice Data (2008) of the United
States, from 1961 to 2005 the thickness of glaciers worldwide decreased approximately 12
meters, or the equivalent of more than 9,000 cubic kilometers of water (Fig. 1-11)
Figure 1-11: Annual mean and cumulative changes in the thickness of ice for the period 1961 – 2005 (NSIDC, 2008)
Below there are two illustrative examples (Fig. 1-12, Fig. 1-13) on how glaciers respond to
climate change.
Figure 1-12: 1941-2004 comparison: Glacier Bay National Park and Reserve's White Thunder Ridge as seen on August 13, 1941 (left) and August 31, 2004 (right) (USGS, 2004)
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Figure 1-13: 1928-2000 comparison: These photos of the South Cascade Glacier in the Washington Cascade Mountains show dramatic retreat between 1928 and 2000 (USGS)
Finally, the effects of climate change on the cryosphere observed nowadays should include
those relating to permanently frozen ground or as otherwise called permafrost. IPCC (2007)
indicates that the temperature in the surface layer of permafrost has increased by more
than 3oC since 1980 in the Arctic while globally the thickness of permafrost has decreased at
a rate ranging from 0.04 m/yr to 0.02 m/yr from 1960 until today.
1.4 Sea-level Rise
Sea-level does rise according to IPCC (2007) (Fig. 1-14). During the period 1961 - 2003 the
average rise was 1.8 ± 0.5 mm per year. In the 20th century, the equivalent rise was 1.7 ± 0.5
mm per year. The total 20th-century rise is estimated to be 0.17 (0.12 to 0.22) m.
Figure 1-14: Increase in global average sea level as measured by observations (grey dots) and satellite data (red line) (IPCC, 2007)
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However, sea level rise is highly variable from region to region. While in some areas the rate
of sea-level rise is much higher than the average worldwide, in others, it is lower or it does
not exist (Fig. 1-15).
Figure 1-15: Trend of sea level change worldwide for the period 1993 to 2008 (NASA, 2008)
As Table 1-1 shows, sea level rise has several sources. Apart from ice melting (in any form), a
very significant rise is caused by thermal expansion of the oceans due to the increase of their
temperature.
Table 1-1: Contribution of different sources on total budget of the global mean sea level change
Source Sea Level Rise (mm per year)
1961 – 2003 1993 - 2003
Thermal expansion 0.42 ± 0.12 1.6 ± 0.5
Glaciers and ice caps 0.50 ± 0.18 0.77 ± 0.22
Greenland Ice Sheet 0.05 ± 0.12 0.21 ± 0.07
Antarctic Ice Sheet 0.14 ± 0.41 0.21 ± 0.35
1.5 Precipitation
Observations worldwide show that the changes in precipitation nowadays refer not only to
the quantity and intensity but also to the frequency and the type (rain, snow, hail, etc.)
(Salinger, 2005; IPCC, 2007). However, precipitation data present a high natural variability.
Natural phenomena such as El Niño or the North Atlantic Oscillation affect precipitation
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rates significantly, making it difficult to reach conclusions whether these changes are due to
climate change or due to natural processes. Long-term trends in the amount of precipitation
from 1900 to 2005 have already been observed (IPCC, 2007). Areas such as northeastern and
southern America, Northern Europe and North and Central Asia are wetter, while Sahel,
South Africa, Mediterranean and South Asia are drier. Also, according to the IPCC (2007), the
main type of precipitation that falls today in the northern areas is rain and not snow.
Moreover, in many parts of the world an increase in intense precipitation events has
become evident which is linked to the increase of water vapor in the atmosphere resulting
from the oceans due to worldwide warming (IPCC, 2007). Finally, in some areas there is an
increase in the occurrence of drought and severe flooding events.
The spatial patterns of trends in annual precipitation (% per century or per decade) during
the periods 1901 to 2005 and 1979 to 2005 are shown in Figure 1-16. The observed trends
over land areas were calculated using GHCN station data. For most of North America, and
especially over high-latitude regions in Canada, annual precipitation has increased during
the period from 1901 till 2005. The primary exception is over the southwest USA, northwest
Mexico and the Baja Peninsula, where the trend in annual precipitation has been negative (1
to 2% per decade) as drought has prevailed in recent years.
Also, across South America, increasingly wet conditions were observed over the Amazon
Basin and southeastern South America, including Patagonia, while negative trends in annual
precipitation were observed over Chile and parts of the western coast of the continent. The
largest negative trends in annual precipitation were observed over western Africa and the
Sahel. A drying trend is also evident over southern Africa since 1901. Over much of
northwestern India the 1901 to 2005 period shows increases of more than 20% per century,
but the same area shows a strong decrease in annual precipitation for the 1979 to 2005
period. Northwestern Australia shows areas with moderate to strong increases in annual
precipitation over both periods. Over most of Eurasia, increases in precipitation outnumber
decreases for both periods.
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Figure 1-16: Global trends with regard to changes in the annual precipitation for the period 1901 to 2005 (top) and for 1979 to 2005 (bottom) using the GHCN precipitation data from NCDC. For the gray areas, data are not available to draw conclusions about trends (IPCC, 2007)
1.6 Extreme weather events: heatwave, drought, flood, hurricane
Since 1950 an increasing number of heatwave events has been observed in many regions
around the world. An increase in the number of hot nights has also been recorded (IPCC,
2007). In addition, larger parts of the world have been affected by droughts as a combined
effect of rainfall decline and evapotranspiration increase. Still, heavy rainfall events which
lead to flooding have been intensified but this does not characterize a global trend. Finally,
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the number of tropical storms and hurricanes, although varying from year to year, has
generally increased in terms of their intensity and duration since the ˈ70s (IPCC, 2007).
Even though the archived data sets are not yet sufficient for determining long-term trends in
extremes, there are new findings on observed changes for different types of extremes (IPCC,
2007). A summary of the changes in extremes by phenomena, region and time is given in
Table 2 along with an assessment of the confidence in these changes.
Table 1-2: Changes in extremes for phenomena over the specified region and period (IPCC, 2007)
PHENOMENON Change Region Period Confidence
Low-temperature days/nights and frost days
Decrease, more so for nights than days
Over 70% of global land area
1951–2003 (last 150 years for Europe and China
Very likely
High – temperature days/nights
Increase, more so for nights than days
Over 70% of global land area
1951–2003 Very likely
Cold spells/snaps (episodes of several days)
Insufficient studies, but daily temperature changes imply a decrease
Warm spells (heat waves) (episodes of several days)
Increase: implicit evidence from changes of daily temperatures
Global 1951–2003 Likely
Cool seasons/warm seasons (seasonal averaged)
Some new evidence for changes in inter-seasonal variability
Central Europe 1961–2004 Likely
Heavy precipitation events (that occur every year)
Increase, generally beyond that expected from changes in the mean (disproportionate)
Many mid-latitude regions (even where reduction in total precipitation)
1951–2003 Likely
Rare precipitation events (with return periods > 10 yr)
Increase
Only a few regions have sufficient data for reliable trends (e.g., UK and USA
Various since 1893
Likely (consistent with changes inferred for more robust statistics
Drought (season/year) Increase in total area affected Many land regions of the world
Since 1970s Likely
Tropical cyclones Trends towards longer lifetimes and greater storm intensity, but no trend in frequency
Tropics Since 1970s
Likely; more confidence in frequency and intensity
Extreme extra tropical storms
Net increase in frequency/intensity and pole
NH land Since about 1950
Likely
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ward shift in track
Small-scale severe weather phenomena
Insufficient studies for assessment
1.7 Conclusions
Global mean surface temperature has risen by 0.74°C ± 0.18°C over the last 100 years (1906
– 2005). Moreover, eleven of the twelve hottest years since temperature observations
began occurred between 1995 and 2006. Greater warming has been observed over land
than over the ocean, and the changes of warming over time are only simulated by models
that include both natural and anthropogenic forcing. During the period 1961 to 2003 the
temperature of the oceans worldwide has increased by 0.10oC from the surface up to 700m
depth. Satellite observations of snow cover during the period 1966 - 2005 showed that it
declines each month except November and December with a stepwise drop of 5% in the
annual mean in the late 1980s. Regarding sea ice, satellite observations in the Arctic show a
decrease of 2.7 ± 0.6% per decade in the average annual rate of coverage since 1978. In the
20th century, the average sea level rise was 1.7 ± 0.5 mm per year. The total 20th-century
rise is estimated to be 0.17 m. Precipitation data present a high natural variability and it is
difficult to reach conclusions whether precipitation changes are due to climate change or
due to natural processes. The frequency and intensity of extreme events (eg. heatwaves,
flash floods) has increased significantly.
References
European Commission (EC), (2011). Climate Change. Special Eurobarometer 372 / Wave EB75.4 – TNS opinion & social, 84pp
IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, New York, 996 pp.
Available at:
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html
Jones, P.D. and Moberg, A. (2003), ‘Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations: An extensive revision and an update to 2001’, Journal of Climate, 16, 206-23.
Leiserowitz, A., Maibach, E., Roser-Renouf, C., & Smith, N. (2011) Climate change in the American Mind: Americans’ global warming beliefs and attitudes in May 2011. Yale University and George Mason University. New Haven, CT: Yale Project on Climate Change Communication.
Available at:
Observed Changes and Responses to Climate Change Worldwide and in Cyprus
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http://environment.yale.edu/climate/files/ClimateBeliefsMay2011.pdf
National Bank of Greece, 2011. Climate Change Impacts Study Committee. Environment, economic and social impacts of climate change in Greece. pp 521
Available at:
http://www.bankofgreece.gr/Pages/el/klima/results.aspx
National Center for Snow and Ice Data (2008). State of the Cryosphere: Is the cryoshere sending signals about climate change? United States
Available at:
http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/glacier_balance.html
National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) (2012). Information from Center’s website
Available at:
http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/
Rohde, R., Curry, J., Groom D., Jacobsen, R., Muller A. R., Perlmutter, S., Rosenfeld, A., Wickham, C., Wurtele, J. (2011). Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project.
Available at:
http://berkeleyearth.org/
Salinger, M.J., 2005. Climate variability and change: past, present and future - An overview. Climate Change, 70: 9-29.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) (2006). WMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate in 2005. WMO-No. 998. Geneva – Switzerland. pp 12
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2 Review of the observed changes and responses to climate change in Cyprus
2.1 20th century climate change in the Eastern Mediterranean
The Mediterranean basin is one of the most sensitive hot-spots of the Earth's climate system
(Giorgi, 2006) and one of the most vulnerable regions in the world regarding climate change
(Alcamo et al., 2007, Giannakopoulos et al., 2009).
Lelieveld et al., 2012 examined the temperature tyrends over several cities in the Eatsern
Mediterranean/ Middle East (EMME) region and found statistically significant warming
trends over the regions typically varying from 0.28oC to 0.46oC per decade. The largest
increases appear in some continental locations such as Belgrade, Sofia, Ankara, Baghdad and
Riyadh with trends in excess of 0.4°C/decade. The same analysis was performed for
maximum (TX) and minimum (TN) temperature anomalies. For TX the largest upward trends
are calculated for Belgrade, Sofia, Tirana and Ankara with 0.48°, 0.46°, 0.45° and 0.44°C per
decade, respectively. The daytime maximum temperatures in Amman, Athens and Baghdad
are found to increase by 0.40°C/decade. For TN, large positive trends exceeding
0.40°C/decade are derived for Belgrade, Riyadh, Baghdad, Athens, Sofia and Ankara.
Interestingly, in the northern part of the EMME the maximum (daytime) temperatures TX
increase relatively strongly, whereas in the southern part the minimum (nighttime)
temperatures TN contribute most to climate warming. In general, most of these cities are
already exposed to high temperatures in summer, and should anticipate exceedingly hot
conditions.
Especially, scientific observations testify that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the
Mediterranean have been rising about twice as much as those of the global oceans (Samuel-
Rhoads, et al., in prep). In addition, the eastern side of the Mediterranean, where Cyprus
located, is experiencing more intensely the effects of climate change. Specifically, analyses
of annual mean satellite sea surface temperature data (Samuel-Rhoads, et al., in prep) reveal
that over the last 16 years (1996-2011) a general warming has occurred over the Levantine
Basin at an average rate of approximately 0.065C per year (Fig. 2-1).
Figure 2-1: Mean satellite remote sensing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) data from 1996 until 2011
Observed Changes and Responses to Climate Change Worldwide and in Cyprus
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Moreover, Figure 2-2 depicts the spatial variability in the decadal warming in satellite SST
anomalies. The Eastern side of Mediterranean has positive anomalies (SST values higher
than the average) during the years 1999, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2008, 2009 and 2010. The
highest SSTs appear in 2010 (Samuel-Rhoads, et al., in prep).
Figure 2-2: Annual satellite sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Levantine basin from 1996-2011. Annual anomalies are calculated by removing the overall mean from each year. Positive anomalies
indicate higher than average SST values, while negative anomalies indicate lower than average SSTs.
Observed Changes and Responses to Climate Change Worldwide and in Cyprus
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2.2 Climate of Cyprus
Cyprus lies at the eastern end of the Mediterranean Sea, hence it belongs in the
Mediterranean climate zone and therefore, experiences mild winters and hot dry summers.
Winters are mild, with some rain and snow on Troodos mountains. In summer, the extension
of the summer Asian Thermal Low is evident throughout the eastern Mediterranean in all
seasonal circulation patterns (Kostopoulou and Jones, 2007a,b), associated with high
temperatures and abundant sunshine. The average daytime temperature in winter ranges
from 12–15 ◦ C. In summer, the average maximum temperature in coastal regions is 32 ◦ C.
Further inland, the maximum temperature often reaches 40 ◦ C. The wet season extends
from November to March, with most (approx. 60%) of the rain falling between December
and February (Pashiardis, 2002). Precipitation is generally associated with the movement of
moist maritime flows to the North, occurring particularly over areas of high elevation
(Kostopoulou and Jones, 2007a). Winter precipitation is closely related to cyclogenesis in the
region (Mahairas et al., 2001). Nevertheless, it is not uncommon for isolated summer
thunderstorms to occur, which however contribute to less than 5% to the total annual
precipitation amount (Pashiardis, 2002). The characteristic summer aridity of the region has
significant implications in several socio-economic sectors. (Giannakopoulos et al., 2010)
2.3 Recent climate change in Cyprus
2.3.1 Temperature
Temperature records, for the period 1892 – 2010, from the Cyprus Meteorological Service
(CMS) (Pashiardis, 2011) for the stations in Nicosia (Fig. 2-3) and Lemesos (Fig. 2-4) show an
increase in the annual mean air temperature of the atmosphere of the order of 1.4oC in
Nicosia (Fig. 2-3) and 2.3oC in Lemesos (Fig.2-4).
Figure 2-3: Observed changes in the annual mean air temperature (oC) from 1892 till 2010 in Nicosia
CMS, Stelios Pashiardis, 2011
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Figure 2-4: Observed changes in the annual mean air temperature (oC) from 1903 till 2010 in Lemesos
Moreover, as regards the annual mean air maximum and minimum temperature, both
temperatures show a slight increase for the Nicosia station (Fig. 2-5). On the contrary, the
annual mean air maximum temperature presents a slight decrease for the Lemesos station
while the annual mean air minimum temperature shows a significant increase (Fig. 2-6)
much larger than the respective one at the Nicosia station. Hadjinicolapou et al. (2011) have
found a less rapid warming In Tmin over the mountainous Saittas station, compared to
Nicosia and Limassol. This could suggest that the stronger observed warming over the
mainland and coastal cities (that both experienced a rapid population increase after 1974)
could possibly be an urbanization effect. But further work is need to be more conclusive.
CMS, Stelios Pashiardis, 2011
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Figure 2-5: Annual mean air maximum (red line) and minimum (blue line) temperature for the Nicosia station from 1892 till 2010
Figure 2-6: Annual mean air maximum (red line) and minimum (blue line) temperature for the Lemesos station from 1903 till 2010
Additionally, as shown in the following figures, the number of days with temperature 40oC or
higher has increased (Fig. 2-7) whereas the number of days with temperatures less than or
equal to 0oC has greatly been reduced (Fig. 2-8) at the Nicosia station over the recent years.
CMS, Stelios Pashiardis, 2011
CMS, Stelios Pashiardis, 2011
Observed Changes and Responses to Climate Change Worldwide and in Cyprus
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This indicates again that during the last decades there has been an increasing trend in the
minimum temperatures in Cyprus.
Figure 2-7: Number of days with temperature 40oC or higher from Nicosia station for the period 1961 - 2010
Figure 2-8: Number of days with temperatures less than or equal to 0oC from Nicosia station for the period
1961 - 2010
CMS, Stelios Pashiardis, 2011
CMS, Stelios Pashiardis, 2011
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Furthermore, very important is the increase in the number of warm nights in almost all of
Cyprus as evidenced by the stations of Nicosia, Lemesos, Larnaca, Pafos, Prodromos and
Saittas (Hadjinicolaou, 2011) (Fig. 2-9).
Finally, the following annual mean temperature distributions present the temperature
changes between the periods 1981-1990 (Fig. 2-10A) and 2001-2008 (Fig. 2-10B). Over the
last decade the greatest part of Cyprus has suffered from high temperatures with the
Northern Cyprus (occupied part) showing the greatest temperature rise. Moreover, the
Figure 2-9: Increase in the number of warm nights in Cyprus as it testified by stations’ records at Nicosia (1976 – 2000), Lemesos (1976 – 2006), Larnaca (1977 – 2007), Pafos (1983 – 2007), Prodromos (1976 – 2000) and Saittas (1976 – 2000)
Observed Changes and Responses to Climate Change Worldwide and in Cyprus
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three major cities of Cyprus, Nicosia, Larnaca and Lemesos where the largest part of the
population reside, are affected by high temperatures causing serious socioeconomic
problems such as increase in energy for cooling and water consumption and high population
discomfort.
Figure 2-10: Spatial mean annual temperature distribution for period 1981 – 1990 (A) in contrast with the respective for period 2001 – 2008 (B)
2.3.2 Precipitation
Data from the Cyprus Meteorological Service (Pashiardis, 2011) indicate that the amount of
rain which falls in the region has been declining year by year. As shown in the diagram below
(Fig. 2-11) the annual average precipitation has fallen from 559 mm (1901 – 1930) to 463
CMS, Stelios Pashiardis, 2011
A
B
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-170 mm
mm (1971 to 2000), a decrease of 17%. The blue line in the diagram shows the declining
trend in precipitation.
According to Lange (2009) the reduction in rainfall for the period 1905 to 2005 was around
170mm (Fig. 2-12). Additionally, in 2008, Cyprus experienced a severe drought due to rainfall
reduction which was 45% lower
than the average of the period
2000 – 2007. As a result, water
reservoirs were filled in only 3%
of their capacity, prompting the
Cyprus government to spend
millions of Euros for water
import from Greece (Davenport,
2008). The severe problem of the
rainfall reduction in Cyprus is
depicted in the diagram below
(Fig. 2-13) which shows the
CMS, Stelios Pashiardis, 2011 Figure 2-11: Annual average precipitation (mm) in Cyprus from hydrological year 1901-02 till 2007-08
Figure 2-12: Decrease of annual mean precipitation in Cyprus for the period 1905 to 2005
Observed Changes and Responses to Climate Change Worldwide and in Cyprus
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water stress index in other words the availability of water. Cyprus ranks first among the
European countries in terms of water stress index (Wintgens and Hochstrat, 2006 ).
Figure 2-13: Water Stress Index among European countries. Cyprus ranks first
Finally, as reflected by the diagram following (Fig. 2-14), observations show that there has
been an increase in heavy rainfall which falls in 1 hour for the period 1930 – 2007. These
extreme rainfall events may potentially cause localized flooding phenomena with
devastating impacts.
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Figure 2-14: Increase in the highest amounts of rainfall in 1 hour for the period 1971 – 2007 in contrast with the respective for the period 1930 – 1970
2.3.3 Evapotranspiration
Another important parameter for Cyprus is the increase in evapotranspiration. As shown in
Figure 2-15, evapotranspiration has increased by 60-80 mm in the period 1976 - 2006. This,
combined with temperature rise and rainfall decrease, intensifies the drying of soils and
leads gradually to their desertification.
CM
S, S
telio
s P
ash
iard
is, 2
01
1
Observed Changes and Responses to Climate Change Worldwide and in Cyprus
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Figure 2-15: Increasing trend in annual evapotranspiration as it testified by records at Pano Amiantos station (1976 – 2006) and Akrotiri station (1986 – 2006)
2.4 Conclusions
Cyprus lies at the eastern end of the Mediterranean Sea and experiences mild winters and
hot dry summers. The average daytime temperature in winter ranges from 12–15oC. In
summer, the average maximum temperature in coastal regions is 32◦C. Further inland, the
maximum temperature often reaches 40◦C. The wet season extends from November to
March, with most (approx. 60%) of the rain falling between December and February.
Meteorological observations for the period 1892–2010, show an increase in the annual
mean air temperature of the atmosphere of the order of 1.4oC in Nicosia and 2.3oC in
Lemesos. The number of hot days and warm nights has increased whereas the number of
days with temperatures less than or equal to 0oC has greatly declined. The annual average
precipitation has fallen from 559 mm (1901–1930) to 463 mm (1971-2000), a decrease of
17%. Conversely, there has been an increase in heavy rainfall which falls in 1 hour for the
period 1930–2007. Evapotranspiration has increased by 60-80 mm in the period 1976-2006.
CM
S, S
telio
s P
ash
iard
is, 2
01
1
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