Nuclear Power in a Carbon-Constrained Energy FutureNuclear Power in a Carbon-Constrained Energy Future
Timothy J. LeahyIdaho National Laboratory
October 26, 2010
9 billion9 billion
2050 Estimated Population
Energy is the Fuel of National Prosperity
Source: Royal Dutch Shell, “Exploring the Future- Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities
Per capita Electricity Consumption vs. Per capita GDP for various nations of the world
Per capita Electricity Consumption vs. Per capita GDP for various nations of the world
Per capita GDP (purchase power parity US $)Per capita GDP (purchase power parity US $)
Correlation Between Electricity Consumption & GDP
Extent of Summer Sea Ice
2007 – Smallest Summer Sea Ice Extent in Recorded History – 1 Million Square Miles vs. Previous Low of 1.5 Million Square Miles (2005)
(source: European Space Agency)
6
U.S. Energy Landscape — Our ChallengeU.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions
by Sector, 2008
TOTAL 5,849 Million Metric TonsCO2-equivalent
U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Source and Sector, 2008(Quadrillion Btu)
Supply SourceSupply Source Demand SectorDemand Sector
83% Fossil83% FossilSource: EIA Annual Energy Review, 2008
Source IEA : Energy to 2050 -Scenarios for a Sustainable Future
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Wor
ld P
rimar
yE
nerg
yS
ourc
es (
Gto
e)
6
6,5
7
7,5
8
8,5
9
Wo
rld
Po
pu
latio
n (
Bill
ion
s)
Other Renewables
Biomass
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Population
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Wor
ld P
rimar
yE
nerg
yS
ourc
es (
Gto
e)
6
6,5
7
7,5
8
8,5
9
Wo
rld
Po
pu
latio
n (
Bill
ion
s)
Other Renewables
Biomass
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Population
The additional needs will mainly come from large developing Countries: China, India, Brazil…
The additional needs will mainly come from large developing Countries: China, India, Brazil…
Energy Supply Will Increase to Meet Global Demand
Jacques Bouchard, GLOBAL 2007
8
Nuclear Energy Today and in the Near Future
United States• 20% of our electricity• Number one source of
emission-free electricity• 104 reactors in operation• 13 license applications for
22 reactors currently under review by the NRC
International• 16 countries rely on nuclear to
supply at least one-quarter of their total electricity
• 333 reactors in operation outside the U.S.
437 reactors in 30 countries generating15% of the world’s electricity — 55 new reactors under construction worldwide
Source: IAEA 2006
Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions
CO2 emission rates for electricity generating alternatives (storage: batteries, pumped hydro, compressed air storage; CCS Carbon Capture and Storage) (Weisser 2007)
Lignite
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Meeting America’s Energy Challenge — Context
• Modern human existence is energy dense
– Not likely to change– Costs and consequences– Not just a U.S. problem
• Production, distribution and consumption of energy has costs, risks and environmental impacts
• Energy infrastructures are expensive and time consuming to change.
• Advocates / Opponents
11
Meeting America’s Energy Challenge — Technology
• Technology is a Means to an End
– We are responsible for its impacts today and tomorrow
– Demonizing or romanticizing will not lead to good decision making
We must better understand and manage technology.
Source: World Resource Institute
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Meeting America’s Energy Challenge…
• Requires respect for and understanding of technology and implications of its use
• Requires vision and leadership – collaboratively from government and industry
The Time is Now!
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