Sponsored by the National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs
Convened by the Arctic-CHAMP Science Management Office
NSF-ARCSSFreshwater Integration study
(FWI)Review of Status and
ProgressCharles Vörösmarty
NSF-ARCSS Committee Meeting
Washington, DC2-4 May 2007
Goals Arctic-CHAMP/ASOF/SEARCH Freshwater Initiative (FWI) Are
Fundamentally Synthetic
Q1: Is the Arctic FW Cycle Intensifying?• Quantify Stocks and Fluxes• Document Changes to the Arctic Hydrologic Cycle
Q2: If So, Why?• Understand the Source of the Change: Attribution
Q3: What Are the Implications• Develop Predictive Simulations of Feedbacks to the
Earth and Human Systems
Arctic-CHAMP= Community-wide Hydrologic Analysis and Monitoring Program
ASOF = Int’l Arctic-Sub-Arctic Ocean Flux study
BROAD PORTFOLIO OF PROJECTS
-CHAMP/ASOF/SEARCH-
Broad balance of: (a) time/space scales; (b) disciplines; (c) tools/approaches
FWI PROGRESS THROUGH 2007
• Majority of the 22-funded FWI Projects active -- Near completion of 5th year of effort for the original 18 projects and 4th year for 4 additional projects
• FWI continues to generate tangible products (some high profile), “brand-name”
FWI PROGRESS THROUGH 2007
• >100 peer-reviewed publications giving attribution to support from ARCSS and FWI
• >100 PI and co-I presentations at prominent National and Int’l forums, including the ACIA, ARCSS Synthesis Retreats, AGU Fall and Spring Meetings/Union Session, EGU, ASLO, & many others
• More than 24 Graduate and Undergraduate FWI Students
• Outreach efforts include an AGU Press Conference, interviews on CNN, involvement in a multimedia documentary effort by NY Times / Discovery Channel / Canadian Broadcasting Co., and feature interviews on NPR’s ‘All Things Considered’, to name a few examples
• Well-circumscribed topic and end-point
• Provides a critical system-wide view
• Entrained many perspectives/FWI contributors
• Provides critical raw material upon which to proceed further
Example of FWI Synthesis: Budgeteers Group
Serreze et al., 2006, JGR-Oceans
The Arctic Freshwater Budget
CHANGES AND ATTRIBUTIONWorking Group
White et al. JGR, Biogeosciences (submitted)
Francis et al., (in prep.)
Document basic character of
Feedbacks & implications on major subsystems
Folland et al., IPCC/TAR
Rosenlof, 2003, Science 302:1691-2.
Stratospheric water
New et al. 2000, J. Climate v. 13
Surface VP trend, 1975-95
CM per /DECADE
+0.3
+0.1
+1.0
+3.1
+0.9
+0.8
+2.5
Growing Season Soil Moisture“Strands” of evidencefor an Intensified Water Cycle
ET-Eastern US Forests
Huntington et al. 2003, Ag.For.Met v. 117
Amazon
Costa & Foley 1999, JGR v. 104
CCSM3 Modeled Eurasian River trend over 20th century = 6.7e-3 Sv/century (2.11 km3/yr)
Results in 7% increase in Eurasian river flow over the century
Agrees well with observed trends discussed by Peterson et al. (2002) (12%, 2.05 km3/yr)
Dat
a G
ap
What does “intensification” look like? 2nd derivative of
Model Forecasts to 2100Coherent Tracking of Fresh
Water
Holland et al., 2006
Anticipated FWI Sunset Products & Activities: 2007+
• Many forthcoming individual project articles• JGR-Biogeosciences Special Issue (24 submitted)• AGU-Eos FWI summary• Support water-oriented session at Arctic Forum
• Arctic-CHAMP Capstone Synthesis WS (2008) (int’l as an IPY-affiliated meeting)
• Planning for IPY and beyond (HYCOS, HYDRA, ICARP II)
• Last All-Hands, Bodega Bay CA (cast as workshop on key findings)
• Perhaps another capstone…..
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